Nothing paranoid about it - it's possible.
Think it through: al-Q already demonstrated they have the ability to manipulate a national election through OVERT terror. Our newbie is simply theorizing a COVERT route.
However, high gas prices by themselves, would not cause the electorate to panic. The Sheep have endured more volatile gas hikes in the past, and they'll endure this one. But it IS, I'll agree, one notch on the burner.