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From a post on my article in the smoky backroom titled

Are Libertarians and other third parties futile?:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-backroom/1191613/posts

I ask why waste a protest vote? When you vote away from Republicans, they go left to attract voters. Democrats go center-right, at least rhetorically, as in Clinton. At least when you have a place at the table you can be heard, a little.

I just don't believe 3rd parties will ever make much of a difference until one of the mainline parties splits or implodes.

I just don't believe 3rd parties will ever make much of a difference until one of the mainline parties splits or implodes.

I don't think they will either. I also don't think a splitting and implosion is unlikely in the medium future.

The US is moving rightward and shows no sign of correcting the course. The democrats, rather than adopt their opposition's issues as their own and thus keep a hand in the game, are increasingly sidelined while Bush adopts their issues and governs like a deficit addicted free spending democrat. The democrats react by entrenching in their leftist ideology, even though the country increasingly disavows the welfare state. As a result, a breach is opening up where a moderate left party should be.

The Constitution party isn't able to squeeze into this slot because they are to the right of the Republicans and, if the rightward trend continues, stand to be overtaken and assimilated.

Libertarians are the likely party to expand into the developing left-of-center vacuum. However, the party planks of open borders in an era of unchecked illegal immigration and isolationism when fighting a global enemy are deal breakers. The Republican Liberty Caucus is merely a sop from the RNC to naive libertarians who think they are having any influence in setting policy while giving up their votes. As it is now, conservative libertarians are as blacks are to democrats -- taken for granted and ignored. Inasmuch as Republicans show no interest in incorporating LP policies into government, there is no point in the LP being their vote pool. Small 'l' libertarianism is the nascent replacement for the Democratic party. If the next election results in continued Republican dominance of federal and state power, the desperate demos may begin a slow motion implosion.