I totally agree with that. This is what is so ironic about California. Californians have pretty solid moderate to conservative ideals, but they consistently fall victim to the image gap.
Put simply, the support Republican principles and Democrat personalities.
I think most of those 6 million people are fairly shallow and image-concious. They don't know too much about politics other than who TV tells them they should vote for - and more often - who they shouldn't vote for. Years of subtle sniping of Republicans on shows like the Simpsons and Letterman have sunk in.
Out of your numbers, how many of those "independents" and Democrats actually vote? That is where your case is misleading. Turnout among conservatives, and especially in special elections, is historically higher.
That is the beauty of Arnold as Governor. He can bring in new people to the Republican party who traditionally haven't paid attention to politics.
This isn't a strategy for THIS election. It is much more long-term. Arnold will bring in huge amounts of new Republicans in California so we can win FUTURE elections.
Perhaps the Senate in 2004.