Since this is pure conjecture, you're welcome to your opinion. Let me throw this into the mix ...
The South's best chance to "win the war" militarily was when Stonewall Jackson proposed a strike into Maryland , aimed at the manufacturing centers around Philadelphia. Jackson proposed his plan to the CSA government in June of 1862, while the bulk of the Federal armies (McClelland)around Washington DC were engaged to the south of the city.
With 40,000 additional men (not entirely impossible for the south at that time), Jackson could have caused the same havoc Sherman caused in Georgia in 1864. Neither Jefferson Davis or Robert E. Lee had the strategic vision that Stonewall Jackson had. Lee was a battlefield genius, but I don't think he was capable of fighting a guerilla-style war. It would have cut against his grain.
while we're doing "what ifs", what happens if Richmond, in 1862-64, looses Nate Forrest's lads to DESTROY the northern cities by a combination of fire, explosions, targeted assassinations & other "special actions"?
or if the southern high command aims COL Quantrell and his band like a weapon on the midwestern states? (fyi, my ancestor was one of that merry band of partisans;he wouldn't have blinked an eye before setting ANY yankee city ablaze. my great uncle remembers Little Thunder and says he had the "coldest eyes he'd ever seen", even in his late '80s.)
5,000 southern guerillas in the cities of the north could have/would have caused absolute panic/havoc. the NY draft riots would have been a "minor disorder" by comparison.
perhaps our southern ancestors were too gentlemanly to WIN the war by any means necessary.
free dixie,sw