"chattal slavery was dying by 1861. it might have lasted another 10 years (my guess is perhaps five years.).
even if slavery had lasted another 10 years, the death of a MILLION PEOPLE (half of those were innocent civilians!)seems a very high price to pay for manumission, especially since a large portion of the civilans killed were slaves.
Here are some statistics from the Census Bureau:
Year Slave population
1790 694,000
1820 1,500,000
1850 3,200,000
1860 3,840,000
In 1790, all existing states except Massachusetts and Maine permitted slavery. By 1850, slavery was absent in the Northen States except for New Jersey (about 200 slaves) and Delaware (about 2,000 slaves). In 1850, in the Southern and "border" states slaves accounted for the following percentages of the total population:
South Carolina - 57.1%
Mississippi - 51.1%
Louisiana - 47.3%
Florida - 45.0%
Alabama - 44.4%
Georgia - 42.1%
North Carolina - 33.2%
Virginia - 33.2%
Texas - 27.4%
Tennessee - 23.7%
Arkansas - 22.4%
Kentucky - 21.5%
Maryland - 15.5%
Missouri - 12.8%
In 1790, Virginia had the largest white population, the largest "freeman" population, and the largest slave population in the nation. Virginia liked to "talk northern and act southern," hence, was in the forefront of states with residents who freed their slaves (largely without compensation). From 1790, when 40% of the Virginia population was slave, to 1850, when 33.2% of the population were slaves, the percentage of slaves dropped only 7%, but the total population of slaves increased. Using progressive Virginia as the model, slavery in the South would have died out by 2150 AD.
In 1850, 75% of slaves worked in agriculture (55% cotton, 10% tobacco, 10% other) and 25% worked as domestic or as craftsmen.
As for part two of your screed, I have no idea where those ideas came from. But for part one, how do these solid and uncontestable statistics fit into your notion that "chattle slavery was dying by 1861 [and] might have lasted another ten years ..."???
Yes, I know, they are "damnyankee lies" for "south-haters" and "flat-earthers." I'll let the readers judge for themselves if slavery was on the way out or not.
By 1850, with it's tobacco fields largly worked-out, breeding and selling slaves to the cotton belt was a major source of income for Virginia.