[nathanbedford]

My back of the envelope 2022 Senate races prediction (from 8 days ago):

Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada and North Carolina are sure wins.

Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are probable wins.

New Hampshire conceivable but probably out of reach.

Washington, Colorado, likely out of reach.

Result: 53 Republican senators

At least 52 are needed to prevent the likes of Mitt Romney becoming the Republican equivalent of Joe Manchin and holding the party hostage.

Since originally posting this prediction, Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania have all improved and are more likely. It is difficult to get data on New Hampshire which has been affected by incursions from leftist Vermont and Massachusetts. There is a poll in Washington showing Smiley behind by only two points. An attractive candidate in a difficult state which could conceivably be taken in the event of a wave which is itself becoming more likely

[roving]

It would probably have been even better if he didn’t sabotage some races

[Laslo Fripp]

Did you forget Alaska?

[FLT-bird]

Yep. This is what Baris and Barnes are predicting - and Baris is THE most accurate pollster over the last decade.

it would take luck to get to 54....a flip in either Washington or New Hampshire, but I feel comfortable predicting 53.

I just hope Murkowski is not among the 53. We’ll take out Pierre Delecto in 2024.

[tbewin]

Alaska will stay R but who will be the R?