I also see the US braking up into 4 to 7 pieces with Texas being the key and being courted by 2 coalitions.
New England states - failed banana republic with no natural resources
Pacific Coast states - pinko commie wasteland with no water or energy
Rust Belt states - failed socialist welfare state
Old South (minus Texas)- Reborn Republic
Bread Basket States - Reborn Republic
And Then you have the wild cards:
Hawaii - which I think would become it's own country.
Alaska - Will go where Texas goes most likely.
Texas - The key to everything
So why do I think Texas is the key to everything? because Texas has three key things, positioning in between the Bread Basket and the South, a coast line, and oil.
Texas would at first lean towards joining the South, but will be courted heavily by the bread basket states because of its coast line and oil and because of their reluctance to be land locked or ally with the rust belt states. But that isn't why Texas is the key, Texas is the key to a future new super power because it could link the south and breadbasket states along with Alaska together into a new super power. All other scenarios result in mediocre or failed nation states.
If the United States breaks up the winners and losers among the successor countries will be chosen in Beijing. If the Chinese pick Texas as a junior partner on the North American continent, Texas will do well - if not, not.