Show me where Lincoln guarantees them success? The South was inclined to rise up and shake off the existing government. They just didn't have the will or desire needed to succeed.
Ok, the first Civil War was about the Union being preserved by quelling what Lincoln thought was a natural right to "to rise up and shake off the existing government ". To the Goon then, secession is by default implied legal, as the Constitution was/is (still) totally silent on the subject.