I highly doubt that. Reparations didn't cripple France after the Franco-German war. And whether you want to admit it or not, a defeated Union would still be an enormous economic power when compared with the Confederacy. It had over 4 times the free population as the South, 10 times the manufacturing, 14 times the textile production, 38 times the coal production and 15 times the iron production. The U.S. had 3 times the farm acreage, 7 times the railroad mileage, 9 times the merchant ship tonnage. It produced more livestock, more grain, more in almost every area except cotton. The U.S. would have continued to grow and outstrip the South in every area so long as it was dependent on cotton production. The U.S. future was far brighter than the Confederacy's was.
Well you asked for my opinion and I gave it. You can reject it if you want but I strongly suspect that the reparations required in the case you speak of would have been nothing compared to what would have been required of the North if the South had won. The fact that many in the North agreed with the South that what Lincoln had done was illegal and contrary to every founding principle of the United States would not have saved them then although it may well have played a part in whether or not the petition of a former Union state wanting to join the Confederacy at some later time was well received.
It had over 4 times the free population as the South, 10 times the manufacturing, 14 times the textile production, 38 times the coal production and 15 times the iron production. The U.S. had 3 times the farm acreage, 7 times the railroad mileage, 9 times the merchant ship tonnage. It produced more livestock, more grain, more in almost every area except cotton. This is somewhat true, but what happens when KY, MO, MD, and DE join with the Confederacy? Why would far western agricultural states be interested in being controlled by an urban manufacturing society? Finally, given the construct of Confederacy surviving, to whom would the US export their manufactured goods to since obviously the South would immediately ally themselves with Britain for naval protection and manufactured goods? This situation leaves the remaining US sandwiched between British Canada and the Confederacy allied with Britian. My guess is Canada would refuse to integrate economically with the US for British mercantilistic reasons and the Confederacy would exclude themselves from Northern imports to reinforce its alliance with Britain. Finally, Northern textiles, pretty much the economy of New England, would have to find new suppliers of cotton or fail completely. Cotton, on a commercial basis was only available in Egypt (a British colony) and the South (an ally of Britian). So right off the bat I would imagine that NE would suffer a debilitating economic collapse that would also be felt in the manufacturing sector as well. The supposed strength of the remaining US would have to be invested in gaining parity with the Royal Navy to have any chance of insuring grain and manufactured exports to Europe. My view, given the supposition, is that the US would find itself as a marginalized player in North America and Europe both politically and economically. Its agricultural output would remain but most likely its industrial capacity would recede due to the absence of available exportable markets. Given this scenario do you expect France to see the US as an ally? Their navy at this point was pretty well shot and no match for Britian. Given these options, I don't really see a great future for the US. My thesis is the South could always have existed without the North, but the reverse was never true.