[Kevmo]

Of course, I’m just an amateur and I’m sure someone will find my analysis to be completely hokey. But it rings true and it’s easy to pop into a spreadsheet to give you a target price for selling as well as for assessing your risk if you think both have an even chance of winning.

[Kevmo]

I don’t think there’s an Intrade ping list, but your weekly post seems to be as close to that as I can think of. Let me know what you think.

[SSS Two]

The Biden contract should be higher today because he is a genuine liability and there are so many Hillary supporters who would come back into the fold if Hillary were on the ticket.

Are you implying that the Biden-withdraw contract should be priced contemplating a switch-out with Mrs. Clinton?

You might want to figure out state laws to determine whether this is even possible. I'm pretty sure the deadline to replace a candidate has passed in Texas. New Jersey doesn't have a deadline at all (at least according to the NJ state courts).

Sen. Biden will be on the Texas ballot. That may not be a big deal for the Dems since they aren't counting on Texas' e.v.'s. But it may be a problem in other states.

Perhaps the ballot problem is mitigated by the fact that votes are for electors. Even if Biden is on the ballot, Dem electors could vote for Mrs. Clinton.

I just want you to be aware that your switch Biden for Clinton scenario is much more complicated that you seem to account for.

[rhinohunter]

Quantify Liberal Bias on Intrade

Ever since Bill Frist banned Americans from internet gambling, there has been a leftward bias on Intrade. Since there must now be a greater percentage of Europeans playing, it stands to reason that pricing would lean more to the left.