I'm not sure conservatives have ever been a homogeneous bunch. We definitely haven't figured out that the primaries are the place to pitch a fit, not the general election.
It will be a repeat of what happened when Clinton got his first term with a minority vote.
If things stay as they are now, it will happen. A lot depends on events in Iraq however. We shall see as we get closer to 08. I think we will see a taste of it in 06 though. I disagree with the pundits who believe we are safe in 06. We are not,(we are never really safe) but I don't expect more than 10 seats to be at risk. This is the statistical norm.