I don't see how you can be so sure they've located "located the people responsible for her disappearance." Up to this point, there seems to be little evidence of that.
And I'm not aware of any evidence whatsoever (again, up to this point), that shows "she met with foul play."
If you know of such evidence, I hope you'll post it.
And, again, she was on an island. Exactly how many places can you hide someone on an island? Certainly not in a pond.
I have no idea what to think of this "pond" thing. It doesn't seem likely to me she's there, either. I suppose we'll know soon if the "pond" thing turns out to yield real evidence, or is just another wild goose chase.
However, your question "Exactly how many places can you hide someone on an island?" ignores the possibility she was "shipped" to another island, or to the South American continent.
The winner of the reality show, Murder in Small Town X, was a NY firefighter by the name of Angel Juarbe, Jr. The finale aired exactly one week prior to 9/11. For several days following, when it had become clear Angel was one of those who perished on that day, we still had one girl who quite simply refused to believe he was gone. Even after his family went to get a death certificate.
We are not talking about Elizabeth Smart. She was a rarity, an extreme rarity at that, having been the subject of a stranger abduction and being found alive over a year later.
We need to be realistic about the very real possibility Natalee Holloway was murdered and her body may never be found.