In any scenario that sees the South as the victor one has to ask what was the purpose of its army before it was engaged by the Union army?
If it was an army mainly for the defense of the southern states its "victory" would be limited to the security of the borders of the Confederacy, and it would have gone no further north unless attacked by the Union army.
If it was an army of expansion of southern ideals then it would be an army of invaders pushing north. It would have preemptively attacked the Union army along a broad front, and its "victory" would only be complete when it took the New England states.
So, the question comes back to: What was the purpose of the Confederate army?