I don't have contrary studies handy but will look into it I do know that most anthologies have essays and studies with both claims. I have read Fogel and enough econometric studies to know how they are set up and what is tested and I have read Taussig's book on the tariff but it is rare and I don't have a copy at hand despite trying to get one of my own. It took months to get one from the Chicago Public Library that I could check out.
I have explained the limitations of your claim that the tariff impeded technological changes because of the differences in the markets available to British and American iron makers and in the availability of capital to each. There was no period of equality between the two groups of makers so the is little certainty that the 50 yr claim is accurate. And if they were 50 yrs behind at the initiation of the policy then the statement means nothing.
Can a tariff slow development by protecting the wrong industries? Sure because it is as much a political device as an economic one. Did ours make mistakes? Likely. Was it run exactly as Hamilton wished. Not likely. He was notorious for doing tremendous empirical studies before recommending policies for more than any of his successors and he was NOT in favor of protection beyond the infant industry stage. But, as Taussig describes, after the Jeffersonian Embargo the politicians decided that the Nation should be made less dependent upon Europe and calculated it to increase our industry to achieve that end.
There was little jargon in my statement and it is derived from the reading of scores of econometic studies, if not hundreds, as well as doing them myself for different classes. Thus, I understand the methodology used. And I know that most are not capable of standing up to systematic analysis because they do not address and remove the effects of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation if you want some real jargon.
By all means do. I'd be curious to see one. Having searched for them myself and found nothing substantial that contradicts any of them.
I have read Fogel and enough econometric studies to know how they are set up and what is tested and I have read Taussig's book on the tariff but it is rare and I don't have a copy at hand despite trying to get one of my own.
Fortunately it's a public domain text now since it's out of its copyright. There's at least one e-text version of it on the web so here you go: http://www.mises.org/etexts/taussig.pdf
That link should also save you about $75, which is the cheapest the printed versions were going for the last time I looked.