The Breckinridge candidacy was that of a splinter organization. Maybe the John Anderson 1980 analogy is more appropriate. My personal opinion is that Breckinridge's political calculus was that Douglas would do better in the North than he did, and the election would be thrown into the House, where the incumbent Vice President would hold the South and border states (15 out of 32 states then in the Union) and gather support in two others to win election.
The "status quo" would have been another doughface. It is pretty clear that the nation was changing - for the worse in the perspective of the slave-holding states - and the days of Southern dominance in the government were rapidly coming to an end.
In June of 1861 shortly after the blockade had been established the seizure of several merchant vessels occured as part of the events that would eventually make up the Supreme Court's Prize Cases. One of the very first cases was over two siezed merchant ships, the Monticello and the Tropic Wind. It went before the D.C. Circuit Court. On June 24th the same Justice Dunlop who wrote that Lincoln's detention of Merrick was an unconstitutional outrage had this to say:
"It follows, upon the case as it now stands, there must be condemnation of both vessels and cargo."
Put simply, he ruled in favor of Lincoln on two of the very first war prize cases to come before a court. Some confederate sympathizer he must be!