Final Electoral College Predictions for Tuesday?

[Starboard]

“If it is that close, either it is rigged, or Americans are stupid.”

*************

The two don’t have to be mutually exclusive. ;)

[nesnah]

Tuesday???? LOL maybe the Tuesday after if President Trump is lucky.

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Which brings up an interesting point.

Weren’t electronic voting machines sold to us as the be-all-end-all to count votes more quickly and accurately?

Prior to that, in paper ballot days, we knew the results election night.

That is unless the electronic voting machines sales pitch is similar to:

- The “Patriot Act” - which wasn’t Patriotic

- The “Affordable Care Act” - which didn’t reduce the cost of healthcare costs

- The “Inflation Reduction Act” - which didn’t reduce inflation

Do you see where I’m going here?

[frogjerk]

Trump 312 electoral votes.

[Starboard]

True but Biden has ignored the Supreme Court three times on student loans. Harris had to take note of that, and she would be pressured in any case to do the same thing.

[cowboyusa]

Then Civil War breaks out.

[cowboyusa]

Ha, all leftists rounded up and deported also. We can dream.🤣🤣

[cowboyusa]

Then Red States start to leave the Federal Government

[only1percent]

276 for Harris and the win, 262 for Trump. Trump flips Georgia and Arizona but Harris holds Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin with massive black turnout in Philly, Detroit, Pittsburgh and Milwaukee. Trump WINS the popular vote though ... thanks to low enthusiasm in California, stupidly large margins in the bright red states, and making things a lot closer (but still not really competitive) in New York, New Jersey, etc.

[Political Junkie Too]

Using my poll-based model, adding a +/-1% bias correction for Trump, and giving each state that has a 50% or more probability of winning to Trump and <50% probability to Harris, then Trump 312 - Harris 226.

-PJ

[Rural_Michigan]

Trump will win Ohio

[goodolemr]

I’m going with 312 for Trump.

VP Harris will drag it out as long as possible refusing to concede.

[PermaRag]

“270-268 Harris the cackler wins by a nose, unfortunately.”

This is the most likely scenario.

It will come down to PA, in which Trump is microscopically ahead, unless you look at only the friendly polls or fudge the numbers yourself, in which case he’s winning almost everywhere. Wisconsin is supposedly just as close as PA. Michigan, not so much.

It wouldn’t take much for Trump to win PA or WI and it’s not like he needs both. PA is going to be counting for several days after Tuesday and if past experience in PA means anything Trump better have a *real* good lead on Tuesday.

Trump is supposedly ahead by more than just a fraction (but not a lot more) in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia & North Carolina. Those *alone* among the swing states are not enough to get to 270. The “Trumpz gonna win Vurrjinnya” type of bullshit is just that, but if he COULD do it then suddenly some swing states don’t loom so large.

In the Senate: GOP +2 or +3 and take control.

In the House: GOP -4 to -8 and lose control. Look for bloodbaths in New York and California as fluke GOP wins from 2022 are reversed in many cases. In CA, final results won’t be available until DECEMBER but we’ll have a good idea of how it’s going well before then, though not on election night.

Anyone predicting GAINS in the House for Republicans ought to say where those gains are coming (as if they have any idea) and provide something to back up the claim. The GOP needs some kind of mini (at least) “red” wave to keep the House.

There’s a possibility of a 218-218 tie. That ought to be fun to watch.

[cowboyusa]

Trump either wins, or it is stolen, and Trump calls for us to rise up. Plane and simple. This time the fraud will be obvious. I almost want it, so we can finaly clean house.

[DrHFrog]

Trump - 309. Harris - 229. Senate - R. 54. D 46. House R +8. Will there be D cheating.... Of course... will it be enough.... Sure hope not !

[PermaRag]

I agree with this 100%.

[Dilbert San Diego]

A 218 to 218 tie is impossible. There are 435 seats in the House. 218 to 217 is the closest the difference can be.

[DownInFlames]

Trump 274, Harris 264

[PermaRag]

D’oh!

[cgbg]

“218 to 218 tie is impossible”

You are doing racist math.

A number is whatever Democrats say it is!
—

“When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less”

Lol.

[Wallace T.]

I am not so sure about the Democrats flipping the California and New York seats that were picked up in 2022. The wins were in rural and suburban areas where people are increasingly unhappy with Democratic misrule of their states. Trump will lose New York but maybe by 10-12 percentage points. He lost the Empire State by 23 percentage points four years ago. Remember that Zeldin came within seven percentage points of defeating Hochul in the 2022 governor's race. As for California, Trump lost four years ago by 28 percentage points. Recent polls show Trump down by 23 but given reluctant Trump supporters admitting their preference, I would not be surprised if Trump loses by 18-20 this time.

The Democrats will focus on the big prize of the Presidency. Secondarily, they will try to hold the Senate to a 51 or 52 vote Republican majority. Even with a GOP majority, there are enough RINOs and hyper-RINOs like Snowe and Murkowski that Schumer will still be the de facto leader even if someone like Thune or Cornyn is Majority Leader.