Posted on 02/21/2023 9:24:13 AM PST by ransomnote
I wish you well also.
I disagree with your analysis. NOTHING about this war, from either side, has gone well or according to plan.
If Russia had gone hard in the first week of the war but didn’t, that would be a huge mistake that might cost them the war, or at least so much pain and suffering they’ve had ever since and continue to have.
I have 22 years of military experience (retired AF) working in missile defense and intelligence (NORAD, SpaceCom, DIA and ESC). I don’t think there’s much support to the theory that the Russians didn’t try hard enough on purpose. I retired before the political hacks got in (under Clinton) so perhaps I remember a US military that was far more righteous and certainly not woke like today.
The Russians recent wars in Georgia and Chechnya were hard fought. This most recent operation is more like they vastly overestimated the will of the Ukrainians to oppose them. And their defense industry and military corruption has been widely known for decades. The Ukrainians are just as corrupt, but more politically than militarily.
Here’s an opposing source for you. Note—I don’t believe it either, but it is opposite of what you’re saying. You both can’t be right, but you both could be wrong. Let the truth prevail!
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/4132967/posts?page=17#17
How do you know what the RF plan is? You’ll not get any understanding from the MSM/Neocon sources posted here. Of course, as von Moltke said, “No plan survives first contact with the enemy.” Nevertheless, but for Western interference, the March Istanbul agreement would have prevented the destruction of the AFU and dismemberment of Ukraine, while achieving the RF’s basic objectives. After that, the RF has adjusted its goals as events have unfolded, but the basic objective of attritting the AFU has continued unabated, and there is nothing Ukraine or the West can do to stop it.
Ukraine and the West have spent a fortune on a psyops operation in an effort to maintain political support by spinning a “narrative” of the RF as evil (reflected in your source, and I’ve seen a lot of that elsewhere) and the Zelensky regime as “plucky”, “heroic”, and “prevailing”. What astonishes me is that even as lie after lie by NATO/Ukraine has been exposed people contnue to accept the mendacious NATO/Ukrainian narratives. Here are just a few of them: the “Ghost of Kiev”, the “Snake Island Massacre”, the Russian mass rape hoax (finally admitted to by the Rada, no less), the Bucha massacre hoax, the Zelensky regime hoax about the RF attacking Poland with a missile (actually a Ukrainian missile) in an effort to trigger Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, the hoax that the RF blew up the Nordstream pipeline, fantastical claims about RF soldier and equipment losses (as of 2/12 even the BBC puts verified Russian losses at around 14k soldiers, while even Zaluhzny and Van der Leyen publicly have stated AFU losses at over 100k before the end of 2022), the “Putin is dead or terribly ill hoax”, and the claims that the RF is running out of missiles and ammunition. There are many more, and NATO/Ukraine are contemplating others, as in the AFU (using Russian uniforms) engaging in a false flag operation in Moldova to “justify” attacking Transnistria and seizing the Soviet ammunition there.
As things stand, the RF is demilitarizing Ukraine at a rapid rate. What is worse, the RF is exposing the West as having militaries and military manufacturing capabilities that have been hollowed out.
Unlike many here, I spend hours a day collecting information from various sources, not because I want to get into a war with the “keyboard warriors” waving pom poms for Ukraine, but because I believe that the fallout from the war is likely to reshape the world politically and economically and, consequently, will affect my investments.
So, here are a few thoughts. 1. This war MAY discredit NATO and eventually result in its being severely weakened or broken up. It MAY also result in major changes in the political leadership of Western Europe (and I would hope the US, but I’m not in least confident of that). 2. The war will hasten the demise of the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency and result in alternative international financial institutions (E.g., alternatives to BIS and SWIFT) that are not controlled by the West. 3. It has and will continue to damage the relationship of the West with the Global South. 4. The geopolitical world will become “multi-polar”. 5. Gold and silver are likely to play a role in creating alternative reserve currencies. 6. The weakening of the reserve currency status of the Dollar will significantly impair living standards in the US.
While I agree that neither side has flawlessly executed military operation in the war, it’s simply not true that both sides’ “execution” has been equally flawed. As thnigs stand, the AFU is being forced to “run to the knife” and is being savaged. Even the Pentagon and others in the West have been advising the Zelensky regime against to doing this (as has the leadership of the AFU). On the other hand, while the Russians have stumbled from time to time, for example in Ugledar because of incorrect intel and engineering mistakes, the RF continues to minimize its losses of men and equipment by intelligently exploiting its overwhelming advantage in artillery, missiles, drones, tanks, and air power.
We had all better pray that NATO doesn’t get any more involved than it has, or we all could be facing something catastrophic.
Take care!
I like Mike Tyson's revised quote:
"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face."
The von Moltke of the ring? ;-)
How about the Evander Holyfield of the ring:
“No ear survives first contact with the teeth of the enemy.”
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