Let's Face It: Net Zero Is Dead In The Water

The cost to homeowners to install solar is rather prohibitive for most. Not only would we have to buy all the equipment and the installation but we would be making those payments for several years. I read it is estimated to take 20-25 years for solar to actually pay for itself. If you can afford it, great! It’s like buying an EV. Couldn’t afford it and having to install a charging station is pricey.

Agree 100% that it's not for everybody. As far as the upfront costs go, I paid for almost all of that with a HELOC. As you said, I'll be making payments for years. But my system will pay for itself on about the 12th year, that includes the extra I paid to buy an EV (vs buying my wife a used ICE crossover since it was about time to replace her older crossover anyway). It also includes other home energy improvements done to the house (insulation, replacing my two natural gas appliances with high efficiency electric ones). But before you say it's crazy, think about these things:

1. My HELOC has a fixed interest rate of 3.5%. By making about 80% of our overall energy costs go away (no natural gas bill, almost no gas bought at the pump unless we drive our ICE pickup, and our power bills are a lot smaller), I've basically insulated our home finances from 80% of whatever future runaway energy costs are. At least that part of my retirement financial planning is now a non-issue. (I'll worry about other costs having high inflation, but not energy costs.) I'll take a fixed 3.5% interest rate any day over the Dims' proposed future energy costs. (In my calculations for payoff I assume only a reasonable 3% inflation rate for all costs. Thus, my payback period will be sooner if the Dims have their way.)

2. My HELOC payment goes down as the HELOC balance is paid down. Even though it's a 2nd mortgage and has a fixed interest rate, the minimum payments are calculated like credit card payments are instead of like most mortgage payments (fixed minimum payment). If you think of the HELOC payments as the cost to save money on energy, then each future year it costs me less money (lower future HELOC payments) to save more money (avoiding future higher energy costs).

3. The EV in conjunction with the solar makes the overall system better than the sum of its parts. My wife asks that the EV be charged for at least 100 miles on any given morning to handle whatever random chores need to be done. (We have the ICE pickup as a backup in case we underestimate the next day's driving needs, and I usually work from home while my wife is retired.) So when we bring the EV home and plug it in to charge, we have a choice between two 240V outlets to charge it in. If we come home with less than 100 miles left or plan to go on a trip in the EV the next day, we plug it into the constantly powered outlet. But if we come home with over 100 miles left to charge and no future trip planned, we plug it into the intermittently powered outlet that my solar inverters power only when my home solar batteries are at least 80% charged (configurable). Since most of a day's chores are done with a 40-mile round trip, and since the EV can hold up to 200 miles of charge (charged to 80% like the manual suggests unless going on a trip), that means we have a few days we can go without having to charge the EV. In other words, most of the time we can be patient and wait for a good solar day to charge the EV. The end result: most of our EV charging is done with "free" power from solar in a way that doesn't add to our power bill. In fact, I pull a lot less from the grid than I used to before I had an EV and when I still heated my home and water with natural gas (but had no solar to give me free power).

4. Other things that save money better than most are things that liberals pay extra for. For example, we don't sell power to the grid. If we did that we'd have to pay a large monthly fee (about $130/month in my case with my system and my utility's rules) for the utility to pay me a few dollars back each month. I don't do that, therefore, my payback period is quicker. Another thing is our choice of EV: it's not a Tesla because I'm not wanting to pay extra as a statement that I've joined the warmageddon cult. Not only is it a lower up front cost than a Tesla, but replacing the battery 10 years from now would cost me $10K in today's money (assuming I didn't have a warranty today, and assuming a 3% inflation rate when I'll replace it 10 years from now). In reality we paid a little extra for a higher end model with extra luxuries, but I count that part of the cost as fun money.

5. One last thing that most people forget is the cost of the ICE car itself. If, like us, you always buy used cars (until we got an EV), then there's the issue of having to replace the used car. In our case the average was every 7 years. So, yeah, I'll have to replace the EV's battery in 10 years (in today's prices that's $10K, 10 years from now it'll be about $13,400 assuming 3% inflation rate). Well, as I said I was looking at replacing my wife's used ICE crossover anyway with another used ICE crossover. Even a used one was going to cost me $10K. Assuming a 3% inflation rate, replacing it 7 years from now would be $12,300. Therefore, by not having to buy an ICE car for $10K that I would have paid for from savings (no car payment), that's $10K more cash I have on hand the first year while making car payments on the EV ($10K more in our Roth IRA's growing tax free). 7 years later that's $12,300K more I'll save (by not having to buy another used ICE car).

I'm making the car payments in part with the $400/month budget item I used to put into a car savings account (to repair or replace our cars with) and in part by pulling the excess from the HELOC (slowly increasing the HELOC balance while making car payments). I also pay down the HELOC each year I get tax credits (the solar tax credit is non-refundable, but it carries forward to future years). I hate the tax credits because I hate government intrusion in our lives. Besides, all the tax credits did was artificially inflate my costs anyway, so they hurt me more than helped me. But it is what it is, so I use them to pay down the HELOC, which in the end helps make the car payments on the EV.

When the EV is paid off in the 4th year the tax credits will end. I told my wife I'll continue using the $400 car savings portion of our budget for 3 years after that to pay down the HELOC sooner to pay back the solar project for the extra we spent on a EV to have nicer luxuries in the only new car of our marriage. After that the only part of my budget going to paying off the HELOC will be the $450/month that we were paying in year 2019 for power + natural gas + gas at the pump for one of our cars (we had two cars then, but now that we do one car's worth of driving I'm using 2019's gas costs for just one car). Basically, I'm already winning the game by the energy portion of my budget being like it's year 2019 (as though the past 3 years' worth of energy cost inflation didn't happen). When my HELOC payment + tiny power bill is less than $450, I pay extra on the HELOC. When it's less than $450 I pull from the HELOC (which increases the HELOC balance, but not as much as the HELOC payment lowers the balance). Right now when I'm making car payments, the budget math is $850/month for HELOC payment + power bill + car payment). Since the combination of those is always more than $850, I pull that from the HELOC (my budget feels like it's year 2019 as far as energy costs go).

Thanks. But you have to do your research on both solar and EV. There are many variables that come into play that decides if it's worth it or not.

For example, I live in Alabama where we get lots of sun (free power). And also most of our power consumption is for running the A/C during the warm months (which is when we get even more sun, even more free power). If you live up north (assuming you're in Pennsylvania and perhaps old enough like me to remember the 1979 Sugar Bowl between Bama and Penn State LOL) where you both get less sun, and also most of your energy consumption is fighting the cold during the winter when you get even less sun, it probably won't work for you.

Another is I have a metal roof. That means my 25-year warranty solar panels don't have to be temporarily removed to replace a 10-year shingle roof. Speaking of my roof, since I have no land to put solar panels (most of my 1.5 acres is wooded) the only place clear from shade is my roof. That means I have to have a portion of my roof facing south. Bonus points if the roof has a steep pitch to angle the panels toward the sun better in the winter when the sun is kind of low in the sky and I'm hurting for as much power as I can get during the few hours the sun is up in the winter.

Another thing is sunshine relative to temperatures. Around here, most of the summer days in which it's really hot (meaning I have to run my variable speed heat pump more to cool the house) tend to also be days that are really sunny. So I almost almost always have extra free solar power when I need extra power. Likewise in the winter. When it's really cold (really cold to us Alabamians LOL) and my heat pump with heat strips has to run more, those tend to also be days that are sunny. It's rare I have a cloudy/overcast day on a cold weather day or blazing hot day. If your weather patterns aren't like that it might not be worth it to you.

Then there's your power consumption habits. A younger couple both working often means most of the appliances aren't running during the day, but when both people get home from work in the early evening many appliances are running at once. (i.e. one person is running the clothes dryer while another person is cooking dinner, meanwhile the A/C is running because you let warm air in the house as both of you open the door to come in.) If your house is busy like that in the evenings it means you have to have larger battery capacity than others do to save up power from the day (when no appliances were running) to power the appliances in the evening to minimize pulling from the grid. Another thing is your inverter capacity. I originally had one inverter (before I got an EV and increased my load) and that was usually enough for my wife and me because she's retired and spreads out the appliance use throughout the day (instead of running multiple appliances at the same time every evening). Thus, my 9kW of continuous inverter power could usually keep up with one or two appliances running plus various incidentals like lights and such. That wouldn't have been enough if I had the same solar system a few years ago when both of us were working. Thus, I probably wouldn't have gotten solar back then even if solar was as good and as cheap then as it is now. It works for us now with our habits we have now.

After studying the telemetry from my inverter for a year, importing it into a homemade T-SQL database and crunching the numbers, I added onto the solar system and got an EV. Now I have double the inverter capacity, triple the battery storage, and double the solar panels, though admittedly since 3/8ths of the solar panels are on my north-facing roof (though on a relatively flat part), that means during the winter those panels receive about 55% of the solar power the ones on the south do. In the summer the north-facing panels will probably produce a hair more than the south-facing ones (because the north-facing ones are pointed almost straight up).

Last but not least are other tricks for saving energy unrelated to solar. For instance, when I replaced my natural gas water heater I got a hybrid water heater. It's an electric 50-gallon tank water heater, but it has a built-in heat pump in the top that I can set to optionally run in efficiency mode. Basically, when my wife and I are done with morning showers it can take from 2 hours (in the summer) to 4 hours (in the winter) to heat the water tank. 2 hours running at 300 watts is 600 watt hours (0.6kWh). That's better than a standard electric water heater taking only 30 minutes to reheat the tank, but running at 4kW (2kWh). I ducted the water heater's air intake from the attic so that it draws in free hot air as a good heat source for the water. For the air discharge I duct that too, only it has a wye lever. In the summer months I direct that free cold air into an air intake vent of my central cooling system (free cold air coming from the water heater to help cool the house). During the winter months I direct that cold air into the attic (so my home heat pump doesn't have to work extra hard warming up the cold air from the water heater).

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