Posted on 12/18/2022 1:37:44 PM PST by ransomnote
Залужний говорить: найцікавіше з інтерв’ю The Economist
CC English
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcOXK8M7Xo8
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/12/ukraine-what-its-military-leadership-says.html#more
All three men emphasised that the outcome of the war hinges on the next few months. They are convinced that Russia is readying another big offensive, to begin as soon as January.
The author writes that “Ukraine enjoyed a triumphant autumn.” One wonders how many thousand Ukrainian soldiers have died for that triumph that was in reality a well controlled Russian retreat to shorten its frontlines.
But neither General Zaluzhny nor General Syrsky sounds triumphant. One reason is the escalating air war. Russia has been pounding Ukraine’s power stations and grid with drones and missiles almost every week since October, causing long and frequent blackouts. Though Russia is running short of precision-guided missiles, in recent weeks it is thought to have offered Iran fighter jets and helicopters in exchange for thousands of drones and, perhaps, ballistic missiles.
Yes, we have known since March 2 that Russia is running out of precision-guided missiles. It has since used only 4,500 of those.
“It seems to me we are on the edge,” warns General Zaluzhny. More big attacks could completely disable the grid. “That is when soldiers’ wives and children start freezing,” he says. “What kind of mood will the fighters be in? Without water, light and heat, can we talk about preparing reserves to keep fighting?”
When it is cold and dark morale indeed becomes a problem. It is not the only one.
A second challenge is the fighting currently under way in Donbas, most notably around the town of Bakhmut. General Syrsky, who arrives at the interview in eastern Ukraine in fatigues, his face puffy from sleep deprivation, says that Russia’s tactics there have changed under the command of Sergei Surovikin, who took charge in October. The Wagner group, a mercenary outfit that is better equipped than Russia’s regular army, fights in the first echelon. Troops from the Russian republic of Chechnya and other regulars are in the rear. But whereas these forces once fought separately, today they co-operate in detachments of 900 soldiers or more, moving largely on foot.
Bakhmut is not an especially strategic location. Although it lies on the road to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, two biggish cities (see map), Ukraine has several more defensive lines to fall back on in that direction. What is more, Russia lacks the manpower to exploit a breakthrough. The point of its relentless onslaught on Bakhmut, the generals believe, is to pin down or “fix” Ukrainian units so that they cannot be used to bolster offensives in Luhansk province to the north. “Now the enemy is trying to seize the initiative from us,” says General Syrsky. “He is trying to force us to go completely on the defensive.”
If Bakhmut is not a strategic location why is the Ukrainian army sending more and more troops into it? Russia is using Bakhmut not only to “fix” Ukrainian units. It is using it to eliminate them with up to 500 Ukrainian soldiers killed or wounded per day. The real fixing operation is happening elsewhere.
Ukraine also faces a renewed threat from Belarus, which began big military exercises in the summer and more recently updated its draft register. On December 3rd Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defence minister, visited Minsk, the Belarusian capital, to discuss military co-operation. Western officials say that Belarus has probably given too much material support to Russian units to enter the fray itself, but the aim of this activity is probably to fix Ukrainian forces in the north, in case Kyiv is attacked again, and so prevent them from being used in any new offensive.
General Zaluzhny has a quite realistic view on what is coming:
“Russian mobilisation has worked,” says General Zaluzhny. “A tsar tells them to go to war, and they go to war.” General Syrsky agrees: “The enemy shouldn’t be discounted. They are not weak…and they have very great potential in terms of manpower.” He gives the example of how Russian recruits, equipped only with small arms, successfully slowed down Ukrainian attacks in Kreminna and Svatove in Luhansk province—though the autumn mud helped. Mobilisation has also allowed Russia to rotate its forces on and off the front lines more frequently, he says, allowing them to rest and recuperate. “In this regard, they have an advantage.”
But the main reason Russia has dragooned so many young men, the generals believe, is to go back on the offensive for the first time since its bid to overrun Donbas fizzled out in the summer. “Just as in [the second world war]…somewhere beyond the Urals they are preparing new resources,” says General Zaluzhny, referring to the Soviet decision to move the defence industry east, beyond the range of Nazi bombers. “They are 100% being prepared.” A major Russian attack could come “in February, at best in March and at worst at the end of January”, he says. And it could come anywhere, he warns: in Donbas, where Mr Putin is eager to capture the remainder of Donetsk province; in the south, towards the city of Dnipro; even towards Kyiv itself. In fact a fresh assault on the capital is inevitable, he reckons: “I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv.”
The general is building and holding back reserves which is problematic for the front lines:
The temptation is to send in reserves. A wiser strategy is to hold them back.
...
“May the soldiers in the trenches forgive me,” says General Zaluzhny. “It’s more important to focus on the accumulation of resources right now for the more protracted and heavier battles that may begin next year.”
Ukraine has enough men under arms—more than 700,000 in uniform, in one form or another, of whom more than 200,000 are trained for combat. But materiel is in short supply. Ammunition is crucial, says General Syrsky. “Artillery plays a decisive role in this war,” he notes. “Therefore, everything really depends on the amount of supplies, and this determines the success of the battle in many cases.” General Zaluzhny, who is raising a new army corps, reels off a wishlist. “I know that I can beat this enemy,” he says. “But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs [infantry fighting vehicles], 500 Howitzers.” The incremental arsenal he is seeking is bigger than the total armoured forces of most European armies.
Does Zaluzhny really believe that he could get that force? I don’t think so.
The Economist points out that donors of weapons have run out of pretty much everything:
On December 6th America’s Congress agreed in principle to let the Pentagon buy 864,000 rounds of 155mm artillery shells, more than 12,000 GPS-guided Excalibur shells and 106,000 GPS-guided GMLRS rockets for HIMARS—theoretically enough to sustain Ukraine’s most intense rate of fire for five months non-stop. But this will be produced over a number of years, not in time for a spring offensive.
Russia has similar problems. It will run out of “fully serviceable” munitions early next year, says an American official, forcing it to use badly maintained stocks and suppliers like North Korea. Its shell shortages are “critical”, said Admiral Tony Radakin, Britain’s defence chief, on September 14th.
The last part is of course as valid as the claim that Russia is ‘running out of missiles’.
But even while lacking armored forces and ammunition Ukraine still dreams of big attacks:
“With this kind of resource I can’t conduct new big operations, even though we are working on one right now,” says General Zaluzhny.
The writer discusses various options where Ukraine could attack but finds that it does not really have a good one. The big victory over Russia will not be coming:
In private, however, Ukrainian and Western officials admit there may be other outcomes. “We can and should take a lot more territory,” General Zaluzhny insists. But he obliquely acknowledges the possibility that Russian advances might prove stronger than expected, or Ukrainian ones weaker, by saying, “It is not yet time to appeal to Ukrainian soldiers in the way that Mannerheim appealed to Finnish soldiers.” He is referring to a speech which Finland’s top general delivered to troops in 1940 after a harsh peace deal which ceded land to the Soviet Union.
So how many soldiers will still have to die before Zaluzhny is willing to give his Mannerheim speech (vid)? He does not say.
| In the General/Chat forum, on a thread titled General Zaluzhny, Ukraine at a fork in the road (TRANSCRIPT and link to 40 minute YOUTUBE video, my notes), PIF wrote: |
You Tube computer generated transcripts are horrible - they are literal to the sound, but not to the actual wording - very often words, important words are omitted, words which change the entire meaning of what is being said. I know because I have been transcribing these transcripts since April. Further the linked YouTube video has two people obviously biased to Putin and aniti-Ukraine: Alexander Mercouris and Alex Christoforou; the General does not appear in the video. Beware, this is a full on Pootie Toot propaganda piece. |
I listened to the entire video and then posted the transcript. I didn't correct every word or punctuation, but read through the entire transcript to make sure it was not misleading relative to the content. I linked the video and all are free to satisfy themselves that the transcript is accurate.
I can't bring myself to give world leaders engaged in war, which has teetered on the brink of WWIII because Zelensky lied, stupid names like "Pootie Toot," but knock yourself out.
Garbage post and wall of incomprehensible text.
Unfortunately, the American politicians (& their followers) who are pushing US involvement don't seem too concerned with "rational limit[s]". We'll probably borrow & spend $100-$200 billion supporting Ukraine, and then abandon them anyway. The only people benefitting will be the Democrat & RINO politicians getting laundered Ukrainian kickback "donations", a la FTX...
;^)
Marinka - the main stronghold of the AFU has been captured by the DNR!
Tonight we received information that after weeks of fighting, the Donetsk People’s Republic’s Army attack aircraft were able to crush the enemy in the center of Marinka and were finally able to take control of the last (southern central) enemy stronghold in the high-rise area.
Given that at the same time, our troops are attacking Pobeda and are well entrenched in the northern parts of Marinka (opposite Krasnogorovka), there can be no enemy counterattack, which means that after mopping up the town, which may take several days, Marinka will be entirely under our troops’ control, after which it will be time to resume the offensive against Ugledar.
Because after taking control of the town of Pobeda, the Ugledar grouping of the enemy will find itself in an extremely difficult situation. And a strike on Kostyantynivka from the north could be fatal for it.
“The Poles are trying to punch above their weight, as usual.”
This whole dang thing is nothing but a ethnic feud.
As far as the germans? They already started to switch sides.
Talking to a person in Austria and they are sick of this shit.
💥💥💥OK Commander Yug Kovalchuk said the Armed Forces of Ukraine are experiencing a shortage of shells for artillery. On the eastern front the situation is even more difficult for the Ukrainian army, where the ratio is 1 to 6, in Artemovsk it is 1 to 10, and there is no way to even the situation. The saturation of the front does not allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to use tactics with light mobile groups💥💥💥
Moon of Alabama blog is questionable source showing extreme bias consistently promoting propaganda & conspiracies without sourcing to credible information.
Moon of Alabama untrustworthy and should be fact-checked per-article. Fake News is a deliberate attempt to publish hoaxes or disinformation for profit or influence.
💥💥💥Hackers from the Anarchist Kombatant group intercepted data on the number of dead Ukrainian soldiers reported missing - 35,382 people.
🔻These are military personnel whose bodies were left on the battlefield and their families will not receive compensation because they are listed as “missing”.
🔻 A complete list of all military personnel who disappeared as of November 30, 2022 is attached to the letter.
🔻 Most of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - 667 sheets with names, surnames and dates of birth. Followed by members of territorial defense units (546 lists), air assault troops (398), special forces (316) and representatives of the Navy (242)💥💥💥
🇷🇺IL RUSSO🇷🇺, [12/17/2022 5:33 AM]
💥💥💥In its commentary on yesterday’s missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that decoys were used during the strike to deceive Ukrainian air defense. At the same time, positions were opened and four radar stations of the Ukrainian S-300 air defense systems in the Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions were destroyed.
It is interesting that the destruction of four radar stations mentioned by the Russian defense department coincides with the data of the Ukrainian General Staff, which in its report yesterday indicated the use of four Kh-59 and Kh-31P aircraft missiles.
If the situation described by the military of both sides really took place, then we can make a bold assumption about the beginning of the process of suppression and destruction of Ukrainian air defense systems during long-range missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine.
We have repeatedly written about the prospects and the need for fire impact on the Ukrainian air defense system in our publications, recently Rybar spoke about this topic at length. We hope that with these strikes the beginning of this time-consuming and important process was nevertheless laid💥💥💥
🇷🇺IL RUSSO🇷🇺, [12/17/2022 5:43 AM]
💥💥💥Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: On the eve of the military command and control systems, the military-industrial complex and energy facilities of Ukraine that supply them, faced a massive attack from high-precision long-range air and sea weapons based. The goal has been achieved. All assigned objects are hit.
As a result of the strike, the transfer of foreign-made weapons and ammunition was stopped, the advance of reserves in the areas of hostilities was blocked, and defense enterprises of Ukraine for the production and repair of weapons, military equipment and ammunition was stopped💥💥💥
“General Zaluzhny has said no such thing. This is just idle talk and speculation by pro-Kremlin V-bloggers.”
Thank you for taking the time to call her out on this distortion of General Zaluzhny interview.
You better check you link again, Pootie troll
December 15 interview with General Zaluzhny, according to The Economist.
Interview hi-lights below. Zaluzhny says Russia is preparing a big offensive and then describes problems getting what the Ukraine needs for the 'heavier battles' to come.
SNIP
"Our second strategic task is to get ready for this war which can happen in February. To be able to wage a war with fresh forces and reserves. Our troops are all tied up in battles now, they are bleeding. They are bleeding and are being held together solely by courage, heroism and the ability of their commanders to keep the situation under control. "
SNIP
"I can calculate, based on the task at hand, what kind of resource is needed to build combat capability.
We are talking about the scale of World War One…that is what Antony Radakin [Britain’s top soldier] told me. When I told him that the British Army fired a million shells in World War One, I was told, “We will lose Europe. We will have nothing to live on if you fire that many shells.” When they say, “You get 50,000 shells”, the people who count the money faint. The biggest problem is that they really don’t have it.
With this kind of resources I can’t conduct new big operations, even though we are working on one right now. It is on the way, but you don’t see it yet. We use a lot fewer shells.
I know that I can beat this enemy. But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs, 500 Howitzers. Then, I think it is completely realistic to get to the lines of February 23rd. But I can’t do it with two brigades. I get what I get, but it is less than what I need. It is not yet time to appeal to Ukrainian soldiers in the way that Mannerheim appealed to Finnish soldiers. We can and should take a lot more territory."
SNIP
As Slow Joe would say: “When you come to a fork in the road - take it”.
General Zaluzhny is an intelligent man and has spent much of the last 10 months futilely trying to talk Zelensky out of risky plans that threaten his troops and begging to be allowed to withdraw troops in peril. But, Zelensky needed “wins” to keep the West onboard.
General Z knows no one is sending him the weapons for an entire new army. They couldn’t even if they wanted to...and they don’t want to. His “partners” want out so bad they can taste it!
Scott Ritter believes that General Z brought the speech of the defeated Finnish commander up as an “excuse” for what it about to come. He WILL have to make that speech at some point and he is setting the foundation for blaming the west for not supplying him with what they promised...just like the Finnish commander did in 1940.
General Z is forming a new political party to challenge Zelensky’s re-election. He hopes to be the next Ukrainian president...the one who negotiates the final settlement with Putin.
Resident
The Economist confirms information from political telegram channels that the Office of the President is trying to replace Zaluzhny with Syrsky .
This is worrying senior Western military officials.
A senior foreign military officer said that at best, this petty rivalry is a red herring.
At worst, it could undermine Ukraine’s unity and weaken the West’s trust in its leaders.
Telegram
Resident
⚡️⚡️⚡️#Inside
Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President wants to give all the laurels of the winner to General Alexander Syrsky, whom Bankova plans to appoint to the post of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
https://t.me/resident_ua/14017
Separately, there is a call for a military coup, but so far softly ...
Exactly, the only “ fork” I see is: Ukraine is done.
Ukraine 1991-2023 RIP
I get it, lots of Americans are do not want us involved in Ukraine, do not want the risks or costs. Lots of us do not trust our government or the news anymore. Not trusting our our government, news or experts make any other truthful. My issue is, those against US involvement on the conservative side are turning to the least credible so called experts, overrated has beens, and never-were's they can find. That does not help the anti-war case at all.
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