Iranian Regime tv Channel One hacked while it was airing Khamenie speech

IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, DECEMBER 29
Funerals and commemoration ceremonies for killed protesters are continuing to sustain anti-regime activity throughout Iran as demonstrations enter their fifteenth consecutive week.
The Iranian regime has reportedly purchased Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets from Russia.
At least seven protests occurred in six cities across five provinces.
President Ebrahim Raisi appointed Mohammad Reza Farzin as the new Central Bank of Iran Chief.
Anti-regime outlet Iran International circulated footage of Golestan Province Governor General Ali Mohammad Zanganeh requesting that local government officials refuse providing services to unveiled women.
UK-based Amwaj Media reported that prominent Iranian hardliners are pursuing political reform in attempt to preempt further unrest, citing an inside source.
A website purporting to represent the Iranian Sunni community reported that Iranian authorities arrested a Sunni scholar in Khorasan Razavi Province on December 27.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-december-29

IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, DECEMBER 30

Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid is likely trying to balance his political positions to maximize his domestic support and achieve meaningful reform.
The ongoing protests have likely altered the trajectory of Iran’s political and internal security environment permanently.
At least eight protests occurred in eight cities across six provinces.
Unidentified militants shot at an LEC patrol in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, injuring one police officer.
Unidentified gunmen shot and injured a seminary student in Qom on December 20 and a second seminary student.
Senior military officers threatened to escalate regionally against Israel.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-december-30

IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, DECEMBER 31

Recent comments from Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps leaders reflect the ongoing divisions within the regime, and especially the IRGC, over the protests. Protests have been occurring at a lower tempo late November, which may be partly driving the debate among regime officials.
The Iranian Supreme Court accepted the appeal of 26-year-old protester Sahand Nour Mohammad Zadeh, who the Judiciary previously sentenced to death.
At least seven protests occurred in seven cities across six provinces.
Education official Hamid Nikzad stated that the Education ministry would require new teachers to attend seminary training

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-december-31

IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, JANUARY 2

The Iranian state security services have intensified their protest crackdown and social oppression in recent days. The regime is likely escalating out of concern that protests are reigniting. This regime escalation could exhaust security forces ahead of the planned protests and strikes on January 6-8.
One IRGC member died and three other members were injured during protests in Semirom, Esfahan Province.
The IRGC and/or its foreign proxies could attack US positions in Iraq and Syria in the days surrounding the three-year anniversary of the US killing Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mehdi al Muhandis.
At least one protest occurred on January 1, and three protests occurred in two cities across two provinces on January 2.
A telecommunications union chief, Mehdi Mohebi, stated that around 800 Starlink devices are active in Iran.
The Sari Revolutionary Court sentenced 18-year-old protester Mehdi Mohammadi Fard to death, according to a HRANA report.
Some Iranian banks are prohibiting cash withdrawals, according to social media users.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-january-2

IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, JANUARY 3, 2023

The organizational structure of the protest movement is continuing to evolve and morph as its leaders try to cohere the movement.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei have both expressed concern about the Iranian economy in recent days, possibly indicating their doubts that President Ebrahim Raisi can improve the economic situation.
Unidentified individuals shot and killed an IRGC member outside his home in Tehran Province.
At least two protests took place in two cities across two provinces.
The LEC clashed with an armed “terrorist team” in Sistan and Baluchistan Province.
The IRGC Intelligence Organization seized 700 kilograms of explosive materials in Gharchak, Tehran Province.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-january-3-2023

IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, JANUARY 4, 2023

Protester umbrella organizations appear to disagree on the timing of the upcoming planned protests. This division may be one of the factors depressing protester turnout.
The regime continues to adopt more overtly authoritarian language and policies.
At least one protest occurred in one city across one province.
Iranian media reported that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has dismissed Brigadier General Hossein Ashtari as law enforcement commander.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated the mandatory hijab requirement during a meeting with female leaders.

Likely Iranian proxies launched two rockets at US forces stationed at the Conoco International Coalition base in eastern Syria.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-january-4-2023

IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, JANUARY 5, 2023

Regime officials and entities are endorsing an expansive, collective-punishment model to implement mandatory veiling laws as anti-regime demonstrations enter their fourth consecutive month.
The Iranian regime is likely escalating against Prominent Sunni Cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid in an attempt to quell ongoing demonstrations throughout Sistan and Baluchistan Province.
At least three protests occurred in three cities across three provinces.
WhatsApp established a feature that allows Iranians to partially circumvent regime-imposed internet restrictions.
An Iranian court sentenced a detained protester to death on December 5 for purportedly leading anti-regime demonstration efforts in Mazandaran Province.

Anti-regime outlet Iran International claimed that the IRGC sanctioned the January 3 death of IRGC officer and Tehran Basij Commander Ghasem Fathollahi.

Iran International alleged that an IRGC Intelligence Organization-affiliated actor assassinated Fathollahi in his home after intelligence officials concluded that Fathollahi was communicating with protesters, citing an inside source.[17] Regime officials previously reported Fathollahi died in a burglary on his home that was unrelated to ongoing protests.[18] Some social media users have speculated that Iran International's narrative is an information operation by the regime aimed at obfuscating the possibility that anti-regime protesters killed Fathollahi.[19] CTP cannot independently verify either of these claims.

Iraq's Supreme Judicial Council may weaponize investigations into Soleimani’s death to target pro-Western entities in Iraq.
Head of the Supreme Judicial Council of Iraq Faiq Zaidan announced that Iraq's judiciary will pursue legal action against Iraqi and foreign individuals accused of assisting in the assassination of former IRGC Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani.[25] Pro-Iranian political actors may use the low investigative threshold to retaliate against pro-US officials from the Kadhimi Administration.

Lebanese Hezbollah Deputy Secretary Naim Qassem met with Supreme Leader Foreign Affairs Advisor Ali Akbar Velayati in Tehran on January 5.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-january-5-2023

IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, JANUARY 6, 2023

The Iranian regime failed to suppress demonstrations in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on January 6.
Confusing messaging from prominent protest organizations may risk further reducing protest activity.
At least two protests occurred in two cities across two provinces.
Several Friday Prayer Leaders stressed the importance of enforcing mandatory veiling laws on January 6.

The US Department of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned seven individuals associated with Iranian drone and ballistic missile sales to Russia [15] OFAC sanctioned six executives and board members of the Qods Aviation Industries (QAI) and the director of Iran's Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO). QAI primarily produces Mohajer-6 drones which have been used by Russian forces in Ukraine. AIO Director Nader Khoon Siavash was sanctioned for his participation in the production and sale of Iranian ballistic missiles to foreign buyers. Iran and Russia have continued to pursue closer and mutually beneficial security cooperation in recent months.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-january-6-2023

IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, JANUARY 7, 2023

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei continues to empower hardline security figures to enforce his uncompromising position toward the protests and mandatory hijab law.
The Judiciary executed two additional protesters—Mohammad Mehdi Karami and Mohammad Hosseini.
Protest organizers tied to the Iranian Neighborhood Youth Union again failed to generate increased protest activity, despite their repeated calls for countrywide demonstrations and strikes on January 6-8
At least two protests occurred in two cities across two provinces.
Unknown gunmen shot and killed one person and injured two others at the Gachsaran Oil and Gas Company in Gachsaran, Kohgilouyeh and Boyer Ahmad Province.
State security services arrested reformist journalist Saeid Seyf Ali, according to his wife.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-january-7-2023

Iran Crisis Update, January 8, 2023

Protest activity increased significantly—in line with the calls from protest organizers for countrywide demonstrations to commemorate the three-year anniversary of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) shooting down of a Ukrainian civilian airplane.
At least 27 protests occurred in 17 cities across 13 provinces. This protest count does not include the situation at the Rajaei Shahr prison in Karaj, Alborz Province, which is ongoing at the time of this writing.
The Iranian regime has reaffirmed its aggressive and hardline stance toward the protests and calls for social reform, which could enflame political dissent further.
Unidentified gunmen clashed with the Law Enforcement Command (LEC) in Khash, Khuzestan Province.
An unidentified gunman shot and killed an employee of Allameh Tabatabaei University in Tehran.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update

Iran Crisis Update, January 9, 2023

Protest coordinators and organizations may have successfully deterred the Judiciary from executing two arrested protesters in Iran.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei continues to use rhetoric that suggests he is not amenable to any meaningful political or social reform in Iran.
The regime is having tone-deaf conversations on women’s rights with itself, highlighting that many officials have not internalized core protester grievances.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei likely dismissed Brigadier General Hossein Ashtari as law enforcement commander due to Khamenei’s dissatisfaction with the performance of the Law Enforcement Command in responding to the protests.
At least two protests occurred in two cities across two provinces in Iran.
Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid tweeted criticizing how the Judiciary has handled the legal cases of arrested protesters.
The Judiciary sentenced three protesters to death.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-january-9-2023

Iran Crisis Update, January 10, 2023

The Iranian regime is refocusing on enforcing widespread adherence to the mandatory hijab law after briefly and informally relaxing such restrictions in previous months.
The Sari Revolutionary Court sentenced protester Javad Rouhi to death.
At least three protests occurred in three cities across three provinces in Iran.
Social media accounts have claimed in recent days that the regime has arrested and sentenced an unidentified former senior official on espionage charges.
The Parliamentary Legal and Judicial Committee reviewed and approved articles of the draft legislation to establish a police force for adolescents and children.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-january-10-2023

Iran Crisis Update, January 11, 2023

CTP recorded no protests in Iran for the first time since September 16, 2022. The movement that began with the regime killing Mahsa Amini is not yet over despite the declining protest turnout, however.
Regime plans to execute a former senior official may be related to infighting within the Iranian political and security establishments.
President Ebrahim Raisi submitted his proposed budget to Parliament, allocating significantly more funds to the military and security services and propaganda bodies.
The Hamedan and Karaj neighborhood youth groups criticized on January 11 the regime mismanagement of the energy sector that has caused natural gas shortages in Iran.
The Iranian Supreme Court suspended the death sentence of 19-year-old protester Mohammad Broghani.

President Ebrahim Raisi held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-january-11-2023

Iran Crisis Update, January 12, 2023

CTP recorded no protests in Iran for the second consecutive day on January 12, 2023.
The judiciary may have executed Alireza Akbari—a former deputy defense minister and British-Iranian dual national.
There is a growing number of indications that some elements of the state security services are coopting the case of Akbari to remove Ali Shamkhani as Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) secretary.
Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid announced that he is engaging the regime on how to address his grievances.
Unidentified gunmen clashed with the LEC at a checkpoint around Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, killing one police officer and injuring two others.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-january-12-2023

Iran Crisis Update, January 13, 2023

Some protest organizers in Iran are trying to push the protest movement into a new phase—one that could include more militant activity against the Iranian regime.
Protest activity increased, primarily in Sistan and Baluchistan Province, after a two-day period of no recorded protests in Iran. At least five protests occurred in five cities across two provinces.
Nour News Agency published an article denying speculation that Ali Shamkhani will leave his position as Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) secretary.

President Ebrahim Raisi argued that women who do not fully wear the hijab could still support the regime and revolution.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-january-13-2023

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