Posted on 02/29/2020 12:31:41 PM PST by SeekAndFind
It’s puzzling for sure.
Japan would have more accurate numbers to cipher.
South Korea probably also.
France and Germany stats more believable than .... Pakistan, Iran, China .... not so much!
My gut says that the bulk of the passengers on this cruise are elderly. There is no evidence that this virus is a threat to healthy people.
Thanks for the sobering analysis. The doom and gloom around here is suffocating. Meanwhile we have a Communist heading for the White House with the support of millions of useful idiots. That’s a bigger concern for me.
You missed the part about only 10 patients recovered, so far. 0.85% is not the final mortality rate. But it does put a bottom on the range for that subset.
I read your post 33.
In addition to nobody trusts China’s numbers, I don’t think it makes sense to talk about a “population” death rate on something so new. China’s incident rate, if you can believe it, reflects draconian measures. Measures that our leaders have expressed an unwillingness to contemplate. And People in Wuhan are still catching it and some are still dying from it.
It makes more sense to talk about the outcomes of confirmed cases. If we can keep the incident rate down awesome. But you don’t keep the incident rate down, by saying, as some here do, that it’s the same as the flu or a bad cold.
Exactly, this is the flip side of the same mental illness that gives us all the Climate Crisis BS. End of the world hysterical lemmings. Cheering on and encouraging the media hype machine.
Think I will avoid FR until this all blows over.
My eyeballs are bleeding from the ignorance and spouting of unscientific “certainties”. Embarrassing for FR.
Your math assumes that all infected persons have been identified. They have not. There are likely hundreds or thousands who are infected and don’t even know it because they are asymptomatic. That means one death out of hundreds or thousands. And the deceased was medically compromised. Calm down.
That concerns me too, but just haven't seen anything but speculation. I would guess that it doesn't unless you get a severe/critical case of it. And then any illness that is severe/critical could potentially leave some lasting damage.
Absolutely, all else being equal. And, hopefully, they are not "my number" but a reasonable representation by those who collect these numbers of what is really going.
I would like to believe that with sufficient attention, we can control the spread so that cases that need intensive treatment do not overwhelm our medical facilities, and that with enough time we will develop better diagnostics, good vaccines and improved treatment regimes and protocols.
I have a lot of faith in the medical science community in the US.
I am an optimist, but I don't come across as one because I am of the class of optimist that believe you have to drive a truck over obstructionists who can't get out of the way.
Michael C. Ksiazek Stark & Stark Sepsis Accounts for 1 in 5 Deaths, Leading Cause of Death in Hospitals Friday, January 17, 2020
A new study published by the medical journal The Lancet, has revealed that sepsis accounts for 1 in 5 deaths globally. Additionally, sepsis is the most common cause of deaths in the hospital in the United States. According to the study, it is estimated that there were 48.9 million cases of sepsis in 2017, resulting in 11 million deaths. The study also found that highest incidence of sepsis occurred in children and the elderly. This is concerning because sepsis is most dangerous for these populations.
Sepsis is caused by an infection. Sepsis is triggered by the body’s immune system response when the infection reaches the bloodstream. Chemicals are released into the bloodstream resulting in inflammation. This can lead to tissue damage, organ failure and even death. Anyone can get an infection, and any infection that is not properly and timely treated can lead to sepsis. Failures by medical providers in hospitals to appropriately and promptly diagnose and treat infections, can result in hospital patients developing sepsis.
Because sepsis is a life-threatening medical emergency, and because anyone can get sepsis, is important for everyone to practice good hygiene to prevent infections. This includes hand washing and cleaning and covering cuts and injuries. It is also important to recognize the signs of an infection and ensure that you receive prompt and appropriate medical attention if an infection develops. Typical signs of an infection may include, but are certainly not limited to, redness, swelling and warmth at the area of an injury, fever, chills, and sweats.
That’s a thoughtful answer.
The questions of intention vs. accident, and also morbidity of the virus, are of course, at the top of the list.
Your mention of seropositivity across the population, coupled with statistics on known cases is a gold standard of assessment that can’t be done at present. We know there are people that are asymptomatic, or so mildly affected that they think they’ve got something else rather than the coronavirus.
On the other hand, the US government is pulled in different directions. Not counting those who want to make political hay of this (e.g., Schumer et al), there is the need to strike the balance between panic and action. For example, if I were in government, I’d be ramping up mask production (as they are with 3M), while at the same time discouraging citizens from using them, since a) they’re first needed for the definitely sick and the professionals that treat them, and b) we’d want to minimize panic as long as possibe, and hoarding. So, its not clear yet what is really happening.
As to whether the release in Wuhan is intentional, semi-intentional, or accidental, I have a few thoughts, which tend to lean towards the accidental. As you probably know, there are articles which have focused on an particular receptor, ACE2, I believe, which is prominent in lung tissue. According to what I read (not a doctor, more of an engineer by training) there are a half-dozen genetic variants which increase the susceptibility of lung cells to attachment by this corona-virus, and they are more prevalent in Asians than in Europeans.
If I were designing and testing a deliberate biowarfare pathogetn, I’d try to make it attach more aggressively to non-Asians than my own population. On the other hand, if I were experimenting with a vaccine to a biowarfare pathogen, I would test it out on my own population. Maybe that happened, and if so... oops. That’s the semi-intentional category.
The unintentional category includes accidental release from the P4 lab, or some sort of incompetence on the part of the bio-lab (of a lower security category) known to be only a few hundred meters from the wet market. One theory was that a bat test subject was spirited out and resold. Maybe.
My theory, based on (IIRC) a comment by Heinlein, is that it is unwise to attribute to conspiracy that which can occur by accident or error. But, I have my own corollary: In the rare case when something is caused by a conspiracy, the details of that conspiracy are often worse than anything you could have imagined.
Ok for all of you that i may be going over the top i will list some facts that you may not have been aware of. I encourage all of you to look them up yourself.
There are 5 very bad things happening in China right now.
1. Carona virus outbreak
2. Africa Swine flu virus. They have had to kill 500 MILLION HOGS.
3. Another Swine flu
4. Avian bird flu. They have had to kill 100 MILLION Chickens.
5 Fall Army Outbreak
Add to this the plague of locust that is hitting Africa and the Middle East at this time. It is expecting to be 500 BILLION insects by June and it will destroy food for the Chinese people that is being raised in those countries.
Please research what i have said and come back to me in a private post message and call me names or tell me that i am wrong.
RE: Fall Army Outbreak
What is this? Never heard of it.
But what you posted didn't differ with what I said.
What I commented on was yet another statement about how many people have died from the flu. No other context or explanation. And has been repeatedly pointed out on many of these threads, that's a meaningless comparison because the flu is widespread and this coronavirus is not. The issue, the whole point of concern, is what happens if it becomes as widespread as the flu. All signs are that then, you'll have many many more people die from this than do the flu.
Open source info for you to research.
Boston U. professor arrested after not being fortright with his relationship with China in the 1000 talents started by them.
One of his grad students i believe made it back to China. The 2nd was arrested at the airport leaving the country attempted to smuggle 30 vials of material in his socks back to China. I read he was a Chines Army Officer
A bioweapons lab in Canada(Wennipeg) escorted 4 Chinese nationals out of their lab in July 2019. The director of that is found dead in South Africa within the last 2 months. Suicide???
World Military Games were held in Wuhan , China in mid October 2019. Chinese outbreak was reported to Chinese officials I believe around Dec. 1st, 2019.
Windy.com showed a map of Wuhan,China Sulphir Dioxide levels being 1351 units. Normal past levels were 10- 80 units on the atomsphere.
It was reported that Wuhans creamatoriums were operating 24/7 during this time. Another 40 mobile burning units were brought in to assist.
No one was working in their plants. Do some research and you can figure it out what they burning.
While you are at it look up stories of all the dead bodies of humans and animals that is found in all of their rivers. One guy makes 500.00 for each body of loved ones he recovers for there families.
Classified briefing for our Senators in DC. What are they hiding?
9 out 10 of their water systems are infected with industrial waste products.
Good post.
For what it’s worth - Dr. Fauci, I believe is the official who said this at today’s press conference on the virus - said it is not known to come back after a person recovers from it.
Again, for what it’s worth.
People have not lived long enough with this virus to know how it is going to affect people longterm.
Please don’t panic.
Because it’s 20 times deadlier that the flu and there is a chance to stop it or slow it down.
....
And yet less than 3,000 people have died from COVID-19!
You guys keep pushing this as “deadlier” than influenza, yet influenza has already killed between 10,000-25,000 in the US alone in 2020! Sorry, but your dire warnings and projections have been utter and complete bull sh*t!
BTW, most people recover from COVID-19.
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