[SNIP] USS Fitzgerald Crew Fought Flooding For An Hour Before Distress Call Reached Help

Here’s the traffic in the vicinity around the time of the collision from VesselFinder. It could be the Wan Hai was much closer to the Fitz than what I’m interpreting from the comments above.

https://youtu.be/m1b58yelh_c?t=25

Interesting comment about the possible role of the anchor causing an abrupt change of course, and it seems logical. Thanks.

I realize we won’t know much until a report is issued, but it’s interesting to speculate. One of the mysteries is why the Crystal resumed course after the collision. The only speculations I find credible is that the bridge was unmanned or that the person manning the bridge panicked and resumed course until given further instructions. It certainly appears he was not primarily at fault, although perhaps he neglected to do all he could have done to avoid the collision, including issuing sufficient communications.

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My initial guess is that the nature of the damage is going to doom the Fitz.

It’ll probably get scrapped because facilities do not exist to reshape the hull.
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The video of their paths is really interesting. You asked someone else to do the math. While I didn’t do the math exactly, I think a case can be made that the Fitzgerald was much, much, closer to the Wan Hei than to the Crystal, but I’ve made several assumptions that you should check.

The data:
1. From the video, the Wan Hai and the Crystal are very close to running exactly parallel, so I assumed they were exactly side by side. (Just before the collision in the video, the Wan Hai position hadn’t been updating, so it appears to be well behind the Crystal, but the next update has it well ahead after the collision. (compare frame 1:05 with 1:06)

2. The video has a time stamp and speed of the ships, but no indication of distances, so I used a ruler to measure the distance traveled in six minutes and got about 1.5 inches on my screen. At approx 20 mph, that meant that 1.5 inches translates to about 2 miles.

3. The Wan Hai is 1.5 inches from the Crystal (on my screen) and is running parallel to the Crystal, and even with it (approximately).

4. The report from the captain of the Crystal had the Fitzgerald at 40 degrees off port at 3 nautical miles distance. I’m assuming that means that it was what it sounds like, 40 degrees left of a line running along the Crystal’s path at a distance of approx 3.5 miles.

So, that’s the assumptions.

Now, draw a 2x2 mile square box with the west corners (from the bottom, labeled A, B, C, and D, i.e., going clockwise from the bottom left. The Crystal would be at point A on the box. The Wan Hai would be at point B on the box, two miles away from the Crystal. The Crystal is moving toward point D, and the Wan Hai toward point C.

On a 45 degree line from A, at a distance of 2.8 miles you would be at point C on the box, and on a line directly in the path of the Wan Hai. At a 40 degree line from A (from the Crystal) a point 3.5 miles out would also lie very close to a point directly in the path of the Wan Hai. Also, the video shows the Wan Hai actually ahead of the Crystal after the turn (frame at 48 seconds, with both ships moving perpendicular to the blue line), so the Fitzgerald would have been almost directly in the path of the Wan Hai and approx two miles away from it.

Here begins the speculation: The Fitzgerald became aware of the Wan Hai, only about two miles away and heading in its direction, but maintaining it’s 80 degree course would take it away from the Wan Hai (in the direction of a line running from A to D.) That line, unfortunately, was the course of the Crystal, which had every reason to believe that the Fitzgerald would eventually maneuver around it. But on the bridge of the Fitzgerald, the Wan Hai was the concern and the threat of the Crystal was never successfully relayed to the bridge. (It’s really difficult to believe it was never detected at all.)

For this to work out, the Fitzgerald, however, would not have continued on the original 80 degree course at a faster speed than the Crystal. It would have had to execute a starboard turn because it hit the Crystal after the Crystal had only traveled about four miles from the turn. That’s not possible if the original course and a faster speed are assumed. But then, a starboard turn away from the Wan Hai’s path would make sense, so it could well have been executed.

P.S. This would be a lot easier to demonstrate with a diagram.

My main speculation has been that more than two ships were likely involved. That’s based on what happened in the Porter collision, where the first ship drew all the attention and the second one encountered was a surprise. Given what I’ve described above, approximately that same scenario appears quite possible.

A couple of points:

The video of the tankers’ paths indicated they turned north to a path of 70 degrees, so they would have been heading 80 degrees prior to the turn, not 60 degrees. Thus the Fitzgerald would also have been heading 80 degrees if they were on the same initial heading.

If I’m correct and the ship the Fitzgerald was concerned about was the Wan Hai, then a call from the Crystal about conflicting routes might have been misinterpreted as coming from the Wan Hai, which the Fitzgerald had already taken action to avoid. If that was the case, it would have been of little concern. (Obviously this is pure speculation. There might have been no call at all, or someone with more knowledge of these matters might claim that no such misinterpretation is even possible.)

All good points, Norseman. And yes, I had the headings screwed up again as you noted. Just to toss more junk into the mix, we also have no idea if there were other Navy ships in the area along with the Fitzgerald. I'm imagining a busy bridge tracking several ships and somehow getting fixated on one (Wan Hai) or confused, not an inattentive crew blissfully unaware of their surroundings.

I was just re-reading a Naval Institute article and great comments: Fitzgerald: When A Big Ocean Gets Small that gives a good idea (to someone like me) what goes into Navy crews keeping ships from plowing into each other all the time. For their part, merchant mariners insist a ship like the ACX Crystal does not traverse busy shipping lanes 'on autopilot' with an empty bridge. The ACX Crystal is described as a 'medium-sized' container ship. There are certainly much larger commercial vessels that it would have to be concerned about in those waters, so I kind of doubt the 'autopilot' theory unless the Crystal crew was suicidal.

I've been trying to follow the more recent FreeRepublic thread here: EXCLUSIVE-U.S. warship stayed on deadly collision course despite warning-container ship captain - many good comments by everyone. A nice education so far for me from some knowledgeable people on how these 'ship' things work.

I wish we knew more from either the US Navy or Asian Container Express, but I'm guessing neither one will want to say anything in public for a long, long time. I have very low expectations that either will be forthcoming with all the details unless they can't avoid doing so. More likely than not, we'll get the watered-down MSM 'public' version that will leave many questions unanswered. Frustrating, considering the lives lost.

Communication is around number three, for example in the air, priorities are aviate, navigate, communicate. I suspect that sailors have a similar set of priorities.