Posted on 08/10/2014 12:46:23 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe
Based on the WHO reporting, and the spreadsheet I’m keeping, the R0 is greater than 1. That is now an established fact.
As of today, 25AUG14, it’s in the Congo, and the entire country of Liberia - all its districts have active cases.
The spread is accelerating, not decelerating:
It took from 15JUL14 to 11AUG14 to go from 984 cases to just under 2000 cases (1975).
From 13AUG14 to 24AUG14, the open cases will have gone from 2000 to 3000 cases.
This is a PREDICTION right now, since the last reporting period posted by WHO is 20AUG14. Reporting periods used to be weekly, but they are now posting every other day. I’m writing this on 25AUG14, so the WHO posts lag by almost 5 days now.
Bottom line, the time it took to go from 1000 to 2000 was 27 days. The time it will have taken to go from 2000 to 3000 open cases will be 11 days. 2.5 times faster to get to the second thousand than it did getting to the first thousand.
That’s acceleration, not deceleration. That means R0 > 1, using the data WHO is posting to the world. GUESSING what R0 is at this point would still be speculation until you did some better, higher math, but it is probably around 2 at this point, given the figures used by WHO are massively conservative at this point. Congo’s numbers, for example, aren’t being reported by WHO yet in their summaries.
Very informative. Thanks!
I’m interested to see what sort of phylogenetic analysis happens with the Congo cases.
Is WHO moving more people into the region?
Note bottle of bleach in background of first pic.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28923826#sa-ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=PublicRSS20-sa
“Ebola: British man begins treatment in London hospital”
When will US media report on the Japanese drug?
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0GP05X20140825?irpc=932
“Japan could offer unapproved Ebola drug”
(answered my question)
The description of “violently ill”, reminds me a little too much of Patrick Sawyer. I pray that is not the case.
What do you suppose the chances are that they decontaminated the plane—at least the areas where this child was, just as a precautionary measure? I am thinking it is not likely.
I hope she feels better soon. She must have been (and may still be) terrified.
“Is WHO moving people into the region?”
Unclear, and there has been no reporting indicating there will be. A WHO doc just came down with Ebola, so I don’t know what that’s going to mean in terms of getting people willing to go in and do the reporting.
This is why, as spotty as their reporting is, at least it is a count of actual cases and actual dead. They admit they are missing entire districts and regions. From a statistical standpoint, that’s OK, or will be OK, once you have a firmer grip on R0.
At that point, your projections are almost as good as a census. What WHO’s count represents is a qualified data sample. It’s enough to build a picture of how fast the disease is accelerating through the populations WHO is tracking, which is just three at this point, really, in terms of reporting.
Sad, too that she is shunned by the community, but the spectre of death oft makes compassion flee.
Thanks!
“SaharaReporters has learned today that Amy Ngozi Adadevoh, younger sister of the late Dr. Ameyo Stella Adadevoh, has reportedly tested positive for the Ebola virus.”
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