Antarctic ice models “not correct”, sea level rise “complicated”

Watts Up With That? ^ | March 9, 2011 | Anthony Watts

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

From the comments:

**********************EXCERPT**********************************

rbateman says:

March 9, 2011 at 6:04 am

Well that about sums up the AGW story: driving on the rims.
First the right front Global Warming tire blew out and peeled off, followed by the left front Climate Change tire, then the right rear Climate Disruption tire, and now that the last tire is going flat, the steering is problematic at best.
It’s a good thing somebody remembered to bring the emergency mountain bike, to enable backpeddling.

[Hacklehead]

“That is really one of the issues in sea level changes. How do you account for tectonic changes? Subduction zones...etc...are a far bigger player in sea level changes than ice...IMO.”

Perhaps during interglacial periods, but I doubt that’s the case during an ice age.

[Hacklehead]

“Water is not being created. We have the same amount since creation”

The amount is the same, the distribution is different. Placing water on land (in the form of ice) reduces the amount of ocean water lowering the sea level.

[NELSON111]

I understand that the same amount of water exists now that existed at creation. That is not the point. What I think you are missing, however, is that in order for it to effect sea level...that water has to be liquid and in the oceans...or frozen...and in the oceans. When it is frozen and on land...it isn't in the oceans.

Where did the water come from when the glaciers extended from the poles? It came from all over the place...its called the hydrological cycle. Water evaporated from the land...from plants...from lakes...but mostly from the oceans. It turned into water vapor...and into clouds...and fell as snow...and got locked into glaciers.

Once it was locked into glaciers THAT WATER was not FREE to be a part of the hydrological cycle any longer...but the cycle continued. So the sea level fell. It was like writing a check out of a checking account when you have no deposits. The balance dwindles.

Let me explain this by going to the extreme absurdity: Suppose we get hundreds of massive heated pipes and suck water out of the oceans and pump this water to the south pole. There...the water freezes. The water we pump out of the ocean will STAY at the south pole and just as if you are siphoning off a can of water...the sea level of the ocean will drop if we did this long enough...and we would have a massive sheet of ice 10 or 100's of miles thick at the south pole.

Right?

The sea level could not stay the same if we removed water from the ocean and froze it in Antarctica. That's what happens in an ice age...even though we are still dealing with the same amount of water...its just in a different form (solid...not liquid).

Now...what if we take giant blow torches to our ice? It melts...and rivers of liquid water flows back into the southern ocean...and the sea levels rise again.

Get it?

[NELSON111]

Oh...certainly. I was meaning interglacial.

[ReverendJames]

Water is not isolated to certain areas. The oceans of the world would be reduced equally, not high in one place and lower in another.

[ReverendJames]

Seems reasonable. But -

[jonno]

In the end, the question is: at what level are the oceans “supposed” to be?

I once asked that question to an AGW booster; their incredible answer: “sea level is supposed to be where it is RIGHT NOW(!)” (emphasis added)

As a follow-up I always ask about the huge peat bogs that are thawing in the Siberian tundra: “If the peat is thawing now (it’s been in a frozen state for ??) what was the temperature back when the peat was growing - before it froze? Was that the ‘normal’ temperature?”

Inquiring minds - not...

[SouthTexas]

Being a Nascar fan, when you blow the right front, you eat the wall. :)

And they continue, scraping along the outside wall, scattering parts along the way that flatten the tires of productive businesses with regulations, restrictions, and out right banning.

All laying the groundwork for the “Big One”, a total train wreck of the entire economy.

[kidd]

Several thousand years ago, during the last ice age, sea levels were lower, so much lower so that a land bridge formed between Alaska and Russia. It is commonly thought that this land bridge was the origin of the American Indians.

After the ice age ended, the ice that covered North America (and Eurasia) melted, sea levels increased, and Russia and Alaska were separated by the Bering Strait

[ReverendJames]

Or, tectonic plates could have been pushed up out of the water.

[TigersEye]

LOL Nice analogy. Not even an official 0bamarama tire guage will help it now.

[TigersEye]

“That is really one of the issues in sea level changes. How do you account for tectonic changes? Subduction zones...etc...are a far bigger player in sea level changes than ice...IMO.”

I expect that tectonic changes, subductions and the like occur much more slowly than the melting of ice when an inter-glacial period occurs. Here is a chart about sea levels rising since the last glacial maximum about 21,000 years ago.

It shows a sea level rise of about 120 meters from then until now. That is a rise of about .175 mm per year. When you factor in differing rates of melt over the centuries, which is reflected in the so-called "meltwater pulse" about 15,000 years ago, that is relatively close to the 1.0 mm per year rise in sea levels Dr. Morner states as a "certainty" between 1850 to 1930-40. He then states that there was no rise from then until 1970. That would help average it out to a figure much closer to .175 mm per year for a 120 year period putting the last century's rise right in line with the average since this inter-glacial began.

If you look at sea levels over a much longer period of time our current sea level is at a near all time low and has been trending down, with a geologically recent uptick a few hundred thousand years ago, that reversed again, for the last 60 million years.

[GeronL]

So, if Ice is added at the bottom of the glacier then the bottom is NOT the oldest ice?

[GeronL]

Same thing would happen with the earth

It is a lot more complicated than an aquarium, its a lot more complicated that stupid computer models can calculate

[GeronL]

The earth is always warming and cooling and always has been, it has nothing to do with human activities.

[Marine_Uncle]

Very interesting interview of Dr. Nils-Axel Morner.
Once again we see how none-specialist take over a process with a given agenda and screw it up.

[TStro]

Very true. IIRC from geology, during the last ice age sea levels were 400 ft lower than now.

[bt_dooftlook]

Not exactly - they didn’t forget to add the tires; the wheels fell off after ClimateGate!

[TigersEye]

The only agenda in science should be to find the truth but I
guess it's bound to be used by those with other goals in mind.