Good Sign for McCain? (Missouri bellwether)

Wikipedia

[duckman]

Thanks for the history update! DM

[wrhssaxensemble]

Yeah but they don’t seem to understand the idea of amendments... I guess it is “above their paygrade”

Instead they make up whatever they wish it would say and then say thats the law because of “progress” and the fact it is a “living” document

[fluffdaddy]

Actually, TR ran against a nonentity named Alton Parker, a NY judge and a wealthy octogenarian VP running mate who picked up about 1/3 of the tab for the Dem campaign. It was a rout. Missouri was with the loser because it was still in 19th Century post-Civil War solid south mode and it always went with the Dem. By 1908 when Taft ran against Bryant (for whom third time was definitely not the charm) Missouri had begun to become the statistical mirror of the nation that it is today.

[wrhssaxensemble]

Thanks for the correction... been a while since I looked at that stuff so I was just going by my somewhat shoddy memory...

hmmm

Interesting how TR ran against a non-entity with an older VP then and how McCain runs against a non-entity with an older VP now

[wrhssaxensemble]

Surprised about Quinnipiac... their polls are usually pretty left-leaning in my experience (which is funny since I go here and it is one of the most apathetic schools around)

The Franklin and Marshall/Hearst poll,fascinating... any idea of their accuracy? seems counter to a lot of the polls the media is throwing at us....

looks like McCain pulled in a lot more independents since june than Obama

[wrhssaxensemble]

Wow and this part is particularly fascinating:

Concerned if McCain Elected President
Yes
16% - GOP
72% -Dems
47% -Independents
Concerned if Obama Elected President
Yes
82% -GOP
39% -Dems
60% -Independents

I thought the 47% was bad until I sawa that 60%...... so assuming all three are equal in number, which they obviously aren’t though that means that an average of 45% while Obama’s is 60.333%...

[moose2004]

The difference is the methodology employed, F + M uses 41% dems, 35% Repubs and 21% Indes. This poll was formerly known as the “Keystone Poll.”

[Salamander]

Hmmmm.....Foxnews must be lurking here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2090344/posts

[do I get paid for this?]....:))

[wrhssaxensemble]

Well then it is still:

Concerned if McCain Elected President
Yes
16% - GOP
72% -Dems
47% -Independents

.16 (.35) + .72 (.41) + .47 (.21)= .056 +.2952 +.0987= .4499= rounding up, about 45% are concerned about McCain becoming president

Concerned if Obama Elected President
Yes
82% -GOP
39% -Dems
60% -Independents

.35 (.82) + .41 (.39) + .21(.6) = .287 + .1599 + .126= .5729= rounding down, 57% concerned about Obama becoming president

I think the 12+% gap is still pretty significant

[moose2004]

Interesting.

[SunkenCiv]

Five weeks, five days to go...

Obama moving into electoral lead
Politico | 9/24/08 | Mike Allen
Posted on 09/24/2008 11:16:42 PM PDT by Luke21
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2089975/posts

[Scutter]

I hope you are right. Still, I wonder what percentage of the voting public actually watches the debates...

[wrhssaxensemble]

I think generally it is pretty low... but in this election, with the way the economy is, the war on terror still going on, judges becoming an increasingly important issue (this part probably mostly just appeals to the public who are in the legal profession though sadly), etc. they will pay a lot more attention.

in an odd way I expect more people to watch the VP debate than the first presidential in this one... people want to see what Sarah Palin is made of and what historical “facts” Biden makes up or groups (miners etc.) he insults.

[Canedawg]

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