TS Gustav & TS Hanna

NOAA/NHC ^ | August 28, 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[nwctwx]

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2008

the center of Gustav has been moving near or over the South Coast of
Jamaica during the evening. Surface observations from the Kingston
area showed winds of tropical storm force...and the lowest observed
pressure was 990 mb. Gustav is producing a large area of cold
convective tops near and east of the center...with satellite
intensity estimates of 65 kt from TAFB and 55 kt from SAB. The
initial intensity remains 60 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 270/6...after a south of
west motion for a few hours. Gustav is on the south side of a
mid-level ridge over Florida and the adjacent western Atlantic.
The dynamical guidance forecasts Gustav to turn northwestward on the
southwest side of the ridge during the next 48 hr...then continue in
a general northwestward direction through 96 hr. The guidance is
rather tightly clustered during this time period. After 96
hr...there is some spread...as the dynamical models do not agree on
whether a ridge will build to the north and west of Gustav. The
GFDL moves the storm quickly inland...while the latest GFS run
shows it slowing down over southern Louisiana. The NOGAPS calls
for a left turn after 96 hr toward the Texas coast. The new
forecast track is an update of the previous package that is down
the middle of the guidance envelope. The track is shifted only
slightly to the left after 72 hr....with reliable model forecasts
remaining on either side of the track. Since track forecasts are
always subject to large errors at 3-5 days...it is simply
impossible at this time to determine exactly where and when Gustav
will make final landfall.

The intensity forecast is problematic. Gustav is showing good
outflow in all directions at this time...but there is evidence of
northerly vertical shear undercutting the outflow. The large-scale
models suggest this should subside in about 24 hours...which would
allow significant and possibly rapid intensification over the warm
waters of the northwestern Caribbean. A complicating factor is the
upper-level trough currently seen in water vapor imagery over the
Gulf of Mexico. The large-scale models forecast this feature to
retreat westward as Gustav approaches...with high pressure building
over the southeastern Gulf. However...the models do not agree on
how much the trough will move...with the UKMET in particular
showing the possibility of shear as Gustav approaches the northern
Gulf Coast. The SHIPS model calls for a peak intensity of 99
kt...the lgem model 94 kt...the GFDL 111 kt...and the HWRF 137 kt.
The latter is definitely not out of the question. The intensity
forecast is increased over the previous forecast in best agreement
with the GFDL. However...it would be no surprise if rapid
intensification occurred and Gustav became a category 4 or 5
hurricane by 72 hr.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 29/0300z 17.8n 77.3w 60 kt
12hr VT 29/1200z 18.3n 78.6w 60 kt
24hr VT 30/0000z 19.1n 80.4w 75 kt
36hr VT 30/1200z 20.4n 82.3w 90 kt
48hr VT 31/0000z 21.9n 84.2w 100 kt...near coast of Cuba
72hr VT 01/0000z 25.5n 87.5w 110 kt
96hr VT 02/0000z 28.5n 90.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 03/0000z 30.0n 92.5w 90 kt...inland

$$
forecaster Beven

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands. Gustav winds 70 mph, moving W at 7 mph.
Pressure 988 mb.

Hanna strengthens...
Moving WNW at 7 mph. Winds 50 mph. 1000 mb.

The Obamathon was full of old rhetoric and hot air.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[txhurl]

FR’s so slow I’m fixing to start posting anti-Obama stuff on WU.

[eastforker]

The landfall forcast slowly but surely keeps inching westward. Y’all have a good evening and we will see y’all in the morning.

[SouthTexas]

The Obamathon was full of old rhetoric and hot air.

All that hot air is attracting the storms!

[Old Professer]

If the high pressure system building in the southern half of the U.S. aligns along a parallel, Gustav could end up like a rat in a linear maze through the weekend; but then when that block breaks down, all howl takes place.

[CindyDawg]

Well don’t post about a shift to the west. They will eat you alive.

[Old Professer]

What do you think about a pitstop in the Yucatan?

[lonestar]

Yes. We're registered. Thanks.

When we evacuated for Rita we got her in the car and went to my brother's but I don't know if she could sit up 5 hours now.

Once there, we had to get a hospital bed which took 2 days...we were there a month.

Bryan-College Station was a great place to be. They had a lot of elderly, handicapped people being sheltered.

We were providing shelter and feeding Katrina people here until we had to evacuate!

[Old Professer]

I used to work there (Monterey, Calif) in 1966-1970 in the Meteorology Lab as a technician doing research assistance to Dr. Renard and Dr. Thomas; our computer at the time was a six story building shared by all disciplines on station.

The Numerical Weather Facility came on board before I left and Dr. Renard attained his full professorship and tenure doing cutting-edge hurricane research.

You have no idea how easy it is to spend eight hours doing calculations of errata on 6,12,18,24,36...72 forecasts by computing by hand on a Marchand calculator square roots of thousands and tens of thousands, etc. just to enter very carefully the results on Fortran sheets to have transcribed the next day on cardpunch IBM cards by the clerks on the bottom floor of that six floor building.

That evening the field charts would spit out of the machines’ big gizzard and dutifully carried across the quad to my small office where I would lay them on a light table and begin to smooth the field lines to remove the outliers...

What a time; good thing we weren’t trying to forecast a current system rather than spending weeks or months analyzing a climatological digested one.

Back then 72 hours was the target and NWS was pretty good; today 5 days is the standard and they are... well, pretty good.

As far as Gustav goes, the more time it spends sightseeing in Jamaica the more likely this Navy forecast becomes.

[txhurl]

That is a great story (I’m a systems gal) and I thank you for posting it.

I’m going with Navy from now on. Cut to the chase.

[Old Professer]

Sheared, smeared and Lobamatized in one fellsnip of the master debater’s hand.

[CindyDawg]

You see the 11pm 5 day forcast? Just about all of TX in it and the center looks more toward the border.

[eastforker]

Not only that but many of the models are starting to show a left hand hook or curve just before landfall.We’ll see how that plays out.

[CindyDawg]

Huh. I see that. Most of out storms come in from the other direction.

[Old Professer]

Can you send the url that lets you run such profiles with graphics?

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

FWIW : that last 5 day forecast(WU) puts Gus hitting

Port Fourchon(LOOP) at Cat-3 and Port Cameron at Cat-2,,,

That would cut 25% of the total oil and gas production

for the entire US,,,

Every update seems to push the eye-strike 100 miles west,,,

Corpus ?...:0/

[SAJ]

For the time being (say 24-36 hrs), it looks as if the low forming up in the Bay of Campeche will ''push'' Gustav somewhat eastward as Gustav moves north. Net result LOOKS (no guarantees yet) as if the low will cancel out most of the otherwise-tracked westward drift.

I'll call landfall 50 miles E of TX-LA border for right now. Still quite a ways out, though, so only 20-25% confidence on that call. Check me again Sat a.m., Professer.

FReegards!

[CindyDawg]

I had not realized how many wells we have out there.

[eastforker]

JUst a WAG but I say between Galveston-Freeport. Or could make a left hook at the sabine river and rake the upper Texas coast.