Track continues to shift west a bit. If this is close, the U.S. may have to be on the lookout in a few days..
Posted on 07/03/2008 7:20:52 AM PDT by nwctwx
Another boring hurricane season would be just fine with me.
Excellent news. I hope they are up and running for a long, long time.
Thanks for the ping.
Something is falling out of the sky around here. Some kind of wet stuff.
We had a little this morning, but anything to dampen the rockets red glare would be a good thing. :)
Last plot of the critter was 16N 33.5 west.
Going to pass the first buoy a bit to the north.
Station 13008 Reggea is at 15N 38W and reporting 78.3 deg water.
Didn’t know we had buoys that far out.
I recall Bertha in ‘96 (on July 8th, I believe, it hit the northeeastern part of Puerto Rico) — I remember that tidbit because I was working in DC as a Rums of Puerto Rico lobbyist, and the then-Secretary of Commerce for the island, Carlos Vivoni, appeared on CNN and other media discussing the storm.
bump to find
Bumping to follow Bertha...(have a vacation planned for Myrtle Beach).
Hey neighbor *waves from NAS Pax River area* We’ll be keeping an eye on this storm as well...
| Tropical Storm Public Advisory |
...Bertha becomes the first hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic season...
at 500 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Bertha was located near latitude 19.3 north...longitude 50.2 west or about 845 miles... 1365 km...east of the northern Leeward Islands.
Bertha is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A continued west-northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days...as Bertha remains over the waters of the central tropical Atlantic. It is still too early to determine if Bertha will eventually affect any land areas.
Maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb...29.15 inches.
Repeating the 500 am AST position...19.3 N...50.2 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...75 mph. Minimum central pressure...987 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1100 am AST.
$$ Forecaster Knabb
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
That was the best they could do in order to create some false sense of alarm...They're desperate for hurricanes these days.
in the hours leading up to 00z...several consecutive microwave
overpasses occurred on roughly an hourly basis...and almost made it
seem like we were receiving radar fixes. Those images revealed a
well-defined and vertically-aligned eye feature...and more recently
an image from AMSU taken at 0517z also depicted an eye. The
microwave eye diameter appears to be about 15-20 N mi. GOES
infrared imagery has intermittently exhibited hints of an
eye...especially around 06z when subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 65 kt. Objective Dvorak
estimates remain slightly below the hurricane threshold...but given
the microwave signatures the system is upgraded to a hurricane...
the first of the 2008 Atlantic season...with an intensity of 65 kt.
While a hurricane does not form every year in July in the Atlantic
Basin...it has certainly happened before...including in 1996 when
another Hurricane Bertha formed...coincidentally also on July 7.
Extrapolation of the earlier series of microwave images matches up
quite well with more recent geostationary fixes to yield an initial
motion estimate of 285/17. The subtropical ridge to the north of
Bertha is providing the steering...but that feature is forecast by
the dynamical models to gradually weaken over the western Atlantic
during the next few days...allowing Bertha’s track to steadily Bend
to the right...but also slow down substantially. All of the models
generally agree on this scenario...but there remains a healthy
amount of spread regarding at what longitude Bertha will turn. The
new official track forecast is edged slightly to the right toward
the consensus and is a tad slower at the end. Given the weak
steering currents and lack of a high-amplitude trough over the
western Atlantic during the next several days...it is still not
guaranteed that Bertha will recurve.
The upper-level winds near Bertha are not forecast to change
appreciably during the next couple of days...while underlying
sea-surface temperatures warm a little more...so some additional
strengthening is forecast along the lines of the SHIPS and lgem
guidance. At 3 to 5 days...the global models disagree on the
evolution of an upper-level trough in the vicinity of the tropical
cyclone...and so it remains unclear how much wind shear will affect
Bertha then. The new official intensity forecast peaks at 80 kt
within the next couple of days...but then shows gradual weakening
due to the potential for increasing shear...and due to cooler
waters as Bertha progresses northward along the forecast track.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 07/0900z 19.3n 50.2w 65 kt
12hr VT 07/1800z 19.9n 52.5w 70 kt
24hr VT 08/0600z 20.8n 55.0w 75 kt
36hr VT 08/1800z 21.7n 57.1w 80 kt
48hr VT 09/0600z 22.7n 59.0w 80 kt
72hr VT 10/0600z 25.0n 62.0w 75 kt
96hr VT 11/0600z 28.0n 64.0w 70 kt
120hr VT 12/0600z 30.5n 64.5w 70 kt
$$
forecaster Knabb
Some really good.... never mind.
Good morning! Hope you had a fantastic Independence Day weekend. This storm isn’t ready for prime time. May never be. Too soon to tell.
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