Posted on 07/03/2008 7:20:52 AM PDT by nwctwx
Not really sure. Some of the largest fires we’ve had up here were behind the dunes and that’s exactly where the wind would blow the sparks.
Looks like you may be adding more today too! We’ve yet to see any today.
Bought the tuna a few weeks ago. Stocked up on bottled water and Gatorade last week. Plenty of litter and food for the kitties. We’re ready, except for the chocolate.
Yeah it’s kind of right below us. It’s been raining all day with occ thunderstorms.
Thanks for the ping. Sittin' on ready too.
Whoa, Stephanie is a babe! Post any photos you get with her standing in the rain..........
Bertha now at CAT-3,,,FOX...
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 07, 2008
Bertha’s satellite presentation has continued to improve this
afternoon with a very distinct eye now surrounded by a ring of cold
cloud tops. Subjective Dvorak T numbers were unanimously 5.0 but
objective numbers have increased to 6.0 for the past 3 hours. This
supports an initial intensity of 100 kt making Bertha a major
category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
Bertha’s intensification to major hurricane today highlights the
difficulties of forecasting rapid intensity changes. In the
short-term...shear is expected to be low and the intensity will be
primarily controlled by eyewall cycles. As a result...some
fluctuations in intensity are likely. In a day or two...the GFS
model still indicates increasing shear. The SHIPS and lgem
statistical models...which base their shear estimates from the
GFS...show weakening beyond 24 hours and so does the official
forecast.
Bertha has been moving more towards the northwest during the last
couple of hours with a reduction in forward speed...both indications
that the hurricane has reached the much-anticipated weakness in the
ridge. Since Bertha could be wobbling...the initial motion
estimate based on a 12 hour average is 300/10. Track guidance
remains in good agreement on a gradual northward turn during the
next 2-3 days. Thereafter...global models suggest that the
steering currents could become weak leading to increased uncertainty
in the track forecast. Even though the official forecast is
shifted a little to the east...it is still way too soon to
determine whether or not Bertha will affect Bermuda.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 07/2100z 20.1n 52.1w 100 kt
12hr VT 08/0600z 20.8n 53.5w 100 kt
24hr VT 08/1800z 21.7n 55.4w 95 kt
36hr VT 09/0600z 22.9n 57.3w 90 kt
48hr VT 09/1800z 24.0n 59.0w 85 kt
72hr VT 10/1800z 26.5n 61.5w 80 kt
96hr VT 11/1800z 29.0n 62.5w 75 kt
120hr VT 12/1800z 31.5n 62.5w 75 kt
...Bertha strengthens to a major hurricane with 115 mph winds...
at 500 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Bertha was located
near latitude 20.1 north...longitude 52.1 west or about 730 miles...
1175 km...east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and about
1150 miles...1855 km...southeast of Bermuda.
Bertha is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr.
A gradual turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed
is expected over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph...185
km/hr...with higher gusts. Bertha is now a category three hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next day or two.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115
miles...185 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb...27.99 inches.
Repeating the 500 PM AST position...20.1 N...52.1 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...115
mph. Minimum central pressure...948 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Rhome
Track guidance remains in good agreement on a gradual
northward turn during the next 2-3 days. Thereafter...
global models suggest that the steering currents could become
weak leading to increased uncertainty in the track forecast.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Bertha has gone from 987mb to 948mb in 12 hours... amazing deepening.
Peeked at the satellite image a few hours ago and was surprised at the impressive presentation. Thought she looked much better than a typical Cat. 1/2.
Little (area wise) storms are often able to ramp up/down quicker than others. That said, I think it’s pretty rare what Bertha has done here.. another to add to the list.
Hurricane Charley was a frightening example of that phenomenon.
EGADS........
Waving to NN and hoping this will be a fun not painful season!
Who brought the chocolate?
If a major hurrican was anywhere near landfall it would normally be breaking news. Do you think it should be jumped to frontpage or extended news, or just left where it is: ‘weather’.
This storm is far from any land, and may only present a threat to Bermuda in the long run (five days out). For now, the weather topic seems most appropriate for Bertha.
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