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A couple of things to add to Dutchgirl's great analysis:

Colorado: If the 'Rats can't beat Wayne Allard, they can't beat anyone??? I don't think so. For all that Allard is low-key, he's such a principled man and upstanding senator that when push comes to shove no one will vote against him, which is how he busted out the strong win this year. Ben Nighthorse Campbell should romp to victory again: he anticipates a challenge from Rep. Udall, Denver mayor Webb, or CO AG Salazar, and has all but formerly announced he's running for reelection.

North Carolina: The NCGOP is very motivated to beat John Edwards. Every month he spends campaigning for president is 0.5% off his 2004 vote. I can't wait to vote him out of office!!

South Carolina: There's not much keeping Hollings in the senate now that he's lost his chairmanship. If he retires, it's likely GOP; if he runs it's a tossup.

Georgia: Zell will win if he runs -- he's enormously popular. If he doesn't run, it's likely GOP -- if an incumbent Vietnam vet 'Rat can lose, the 'Rats stand no chance in an open seat fight.

New York: I think Giuliani will run, and Chuck Schumer just isn't big-time enough to face America's mayor. If Giuliani runs, it's likely GOP.

Kentucky: Has been getting more Republican by the minute. McConnell just won 2-1 over Combs Weinberg. Moderate D Rep. Ken Lucas could give Bunning a run for his money, but still leans GOP.

Indiana: Bayh is staying out of presidential politics until 2008 -- he wins again.

Missouri: Might Kit Bond face a tough time? He won a very close election in 98. Any idea who would challenge him?

Arkansas: Gov. Huckabee has indicated that he'll run against Blanche Lincoln "if the President says he needs me". I interpret that as he's begging to run but doesn't want to announce a week after being reelected governor that he won't serve out his 4 years. This is a tossup.

Alaska: Tony Knowles is trying to deny he's running for senate in 2004. Fran Ulmer could run, though. Still, this is still Likely GOP territory.

Wisconsin: Tommy Thompson said he only wants to serve 2 years as HHS secretary. He's the most popular politician in the state.

Nevada: I'd be shocked if Harry Reid didn't run again. He's too much in love with himself not to. Unfortunately he's gotten some points for opposing Yucca, and might eek out another win even over a strong challenger.