2004 Senate Election List

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[William McKinley]

What you said may or may not be true in California. It is patently false in New Jersey.

Forrester ran as a center-right candidate, more to the center than the right, a very moderate position. He had the support of the full party machinery. He performed well in the debates. He got trounced by a liberal retread, getting all of 44% of the vote.

If we rewind to the Governor's race, Bret Schundler got little, if any, support from the party, running as a solid conservative. His performance in the debates was erratic and disappointing to his most ardent supporters (he was not as energetic or eloquent as he normally is). He got 42% of the vote, merely 2% less.

What does this mean? It may mean that neither ideology or party effectiveness mattered. Or it may mean that had Schundler gotten full party support, which moderates always insist on from conservatives but often hesitate to give when the roles are reversed, he would have done better.

But one thing the data does not support is that NJ's problem is that it runs too conservative candidates. One could argue that it was the running of liberal/moderate Republicans (and winning with them) that accelerated the state's leftward tilt.

[GraniteStateConservative]

He should run for Lt. Governor in 2006.

I think that it has to be either Rice or one of the congress critters.

[JohnnyZ]

I still think US Treasurer Rosario Marin is the best candidate against Boxer, or maybe Peter Ueberroth.

In other senate news there was a story on politicalwire.com that Asa Hutchinson is being groomed to challenge Blanche Lincoln in 2004, as some have suspected. Gov. Huckabee clearly wants to run, but he may just have to wait and challenge Mark Pryor in 2010.

[GraniteStateConservative]

2008.

[JohnnyZ]

Then too.

[Jeb08]

I checked out Political Wire.com; it's a solid site. You've gotta love Al Gore. The guy openly blasted the Fox News Network! Who has ever heard of a presidential candidate criticizing one of the major networks that will be covering him?

Christmas will come early for me if Gore runs. He is the most despised political figure since Nixon, and he is virtually guaranteed the nomination if he runs. I believe that his presence on the ballot will not only mean a Bush landslide, but also a Republican congressional victory of historic proportions. Can't you just see Gore running for president every four years for the rest of the century?!

Many of the Democrats are nice people, but they simply do not learn. Gore only won the popular vote in 2000 because a left-wing operative in Maine leaked the Bush DUI story. I predict that Gore will not win a single state in 2004.

There is no time for us to rest on our laurels. The Democratic Party is dying, and we MUST capitalize.

[JohnnyZ]

Well Amen to that! I like how Gore still has 50% support from Democrats for the nomination. Having a weak Rat top of the ticket would do wonders for senate and house races across the country and depress liberal turnout. From desperation to despondency! I think all the Hillary 2008 talk will only serve to drag down the nominee too.

Roll Call reports the following:

"Sen. John Breaux (D) last week squashed speculation that he was reconsidering a run for governor in 2003. "I've already made a decision not to run," Breaux told the New Orleans Times-Picayune.

Breaux had previously ruled out the race in January. He is considered the strongest candidate Democrats could field for the state's top office.

Breaux has yet to decide whether he will stand for a fourth Senate term in 2004."

Breaux will be only 60 years old in 2004. Zell Miller, another possible retiree, will be 72.

[Jeb08]

Breaux and Miller are the two most conservative and most popular Democratic Senators. They are untouchable. Miller is the last viable Democrat in Georgia, so an open seat would easily go GOP.

Anyone have news on ousting McCain and Specter?

[nospinzone]

Breaux and Miller are the two most conservative and most popular Democratic Senators. They are untouchable. Miller is the last viable Democrat in Georgia, so an open seat would easily go GOP.

I do hope Breaux retires so we can get a shot at his seat. (If Terrell wins this Saturday, we could grab both of Louisiana's seats. Sweet!) I guess it'll depend on what he wants to accomplish, he would still wield influence as being one of Bush's "go between" Democrats. If he does step down Billy Tauzin or David Vitter will probably step up to fill the seat, in which case the election would probably go a lot smoother than the whole Cooksey-Perkins-Terrell fiasco we've been through already.

Anyone have news on ousting McCain and Specter?

Pat Toomey has term-limited himself and is rumored to be seeking a primary challenge to Specter. Specter is already packing his war chest for a fight and may have to reregister subruban Democrats that vote for him in the general election as Republicans so they can vote for him in the primary.

No word on McCain, I don't think he's said whether he'll retire or not or if a primary challenger has arisen yet.

[Jeb08]

Word is that Murkowski's list is down to his daughter, Lisa, Johne Binkley, and Sarah Palin, the mayor of some city in Alaska. Everything I hear is pointing toward Binkley as the strongest candidate.

What's up with Roll Call's declaring Fitz a goner? What's with conservatives being "upset" with him? As Fitz correctly points out, only Chaffee represents a more liberal state. Right now, conservatives must rally behind Fitzgerald's re-election bid - otherwise, we will lose the seat. Only Fitzgerald and Hastert are left of the Illinois GOP. Although I am a pround conservative, you have to be aware of your political environment; conservative uprisings cost us the governorships of New Jersey and California. Who would you rather have as governor of CA: Gray Davis or Richard Riordan?

After reviewing a number of candidates, I have concluded that Lt. Gov. Frank Brogan is the strongest candidate to take on Bob Graham in Florida. Yes, we cleaned up in FLorida this year, but the job will not be complete until we re-elect Bush in a landslide and send Graham into retirement. Brogan is a rising star, and Graham is no conservative - a career rating of 18 by the ACU.

I am going to predict that Suzie Terrell defeats Mary Landrieu. It's a tough call, and Landrieu will win if she can energize the black community, but a hunch tells me that Terrell is going to pull it out. The Democrats are dying in the South, and I believe that only candidates such as Breaux and Miller are going to be electable. Also, Terrell is copying Saxby Chambliss' recipe for victory in Georgia; going negative on a weak incumbent. The Democrats' weakness in the South is why I believe that Senators like Fritz Hollings, John Edwards and possibly Bob Grham are toast come '04.

[nospinzone]

I am going to predict that Suzie Terrell defeats Mary Landrieu. It's a tough call, and Landrieu will win if she can energize the black community, but a hunch tells me that Terrell is going to pull it out. The Democrats are dying in the South, and I believe that only candidates such as Breaux and Miller are going to be electable. Also, Terrell is copying Saxby Chambliss' recipe for victory in Georgia; going negative on a weak incumbent. The Democrats' weakness in the South is why I believe that Senators like Fritz Hollings, John Edwards and possibly Bob Grham are toast come '04.

What does anyone think of Blanche Lincoln? She rarely makes the news as a "moderate" Democrat the way Miller, Nelson and Breaux do. Think she's vulnerable?

[Jeb08]

Yes, I see her as a more confident Mary Landrieu. Asa Hutchinson and Mike Huckabee will compete for the nomination; I think that Hutchinson is the strongest candidate. Lincoln's carrer ACU rating: 22.

In other news, does anyone sense that the gender gap is closing? Of the 13 women in the Senate, 10 are Democrats and 3 Republicans, but that will change after Elizabeth Dole takes office and Jean Carnahan leaves. A Terrell victory would make it 8-5. Getting rid of Boxer, Lincoln and Murray and replacing them with women could give us the majority among women.

[CPT Clay]

If Edwards is on the Dem ticket as VP, can he still run in NC for senator like LIEberman did in '00?

[Jeb08]

Yes, I believe so. Apparently the Brits are impressed with Edwards. Big deal. I still don't understand how someone who will not even be re-elected to the Senate and will not carry his own state can be put on the national ticket. I have nothing against Edwards -- I think he would be a better candidate than Gore -- but I can't see him defeating a popular President, especially considering the current political environment in the South.

[CPT Clay]

Your analysis is great on this thread. The Elephant in the room in all these calculations is California. Is Bush going to attempt to take it? I liked your analogy of taking it to the beast.The republican party needs to make in roads into the hispanic community especially in Cali. The demographics are glaring. Friendly spanish speaking individuals are needed at every citizenship ceremony.

But I digress, Many of the Cong. Black Caucus seats in Cali are now majority hispanic. A good primary battle followed by a strong republican challange( who happens to be hispanic) would send shudders through the DNC. We must try to compete. I believe Boxer is the weakest of the Ca senators. As I said, this is the elephant... Cali is extremely expensive. The senate race would take between 50 and 100 million alone. For the president to compete in atleast 40 CD's would add on another 100 million. Its very tempting to spend these assets eleswhere (say a couple of cheap seats in the Dakotas?).

[GraniteStateConservative]

Some states like AR are marginal and could tip to Democrat with a strong Southerner. Edwards isn't that guy, though.

[GraniteStateConservative]

With Myrick bowing out in NC, there's one less GOP woman senator. Murkowski could pick a woman to take his seat. Melissa Hart could replace Specter should he retire-- which I doubt will happen. Mary Bono or Ann Veneman or Rosario Marin could replace Boxer. Jennifer Dunn could replace Murray. Terrell could replace Breaux should she come up short and Breaux retires to run for governor (an unlikely scenario, granted). On the Democrat side, many Democrat women in IL could replace Fitzgerald and Herseth could replace Daschle.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Yes.

[CPT Clay]

Cali will be the most expensive senate race in the country followed closely be NY if Rudy runs and Ill.

My number one target would be S Carolina. Fritz( the Gv that put that flag on the capitol) will be 82 on election day. He should retire. Open seats in Bush Country are a great place to start.

Is Zell going to retire? or switch?Ga is a Bush state!!!

Blanche Lincoln should be a target. Freshman, Bush state(+5),inexpensive media, plus the party has to do a lot of work at the grass roots and elect some state legislators.

I think Jennifer Dunn would have an excellent chance of knocking off Murray in Washington St.

Finegold made himself a target lasttime by not accepting PAC $ and Barely won.

Bush won ND by 28pts Dorgan can be beaten by the repub Guv. Can Pomeroy also be beaten?

20,000 republicans bought the keep Daschele the Majority leader crap in SD. Now they dont have that excuse. The feds will be watching the resevations very closely. Maybe Tom will take a lucrative lobbying job?Maybe he can take McCain with him.