2004 Senate Election List

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[Jeb08]

How are you so certain? From what I understand (correct me if I'm wrong), Edwards can run for re-election and run for President at the same time -- and let's face it, his chances of being elected President in '04 are less than zero.

The GOP HAS to convince Kenny Guinn to run if Harry Reid is to be defeated. Like Racicot in Montana (who chose not to run against Max Baucus), Guinn is the only Republican (other than Ensign) who has any name recognition and popularity within the state.

Any more thoughts on how we can beat Boxer and Murray?

[nospinzone]

New York: I think Giuliani will run, and Chuck Schumer just isn't big-time enough to face America's mayor. If Giuliani runs, it's likely GOP.

Wow that'd be great. Schumer is so far to the left he would fall into the Pacific Ocean.

Arkansas: Gov. Huckabee has indicated that he'll run against Blanche Lincoln "if the President says he needs me". I interpret that as he's begging to run but doesn't want to announce a week after being reelected governor that he won't serve out his 4 years. This is a tossup.

That'd be great. Otherwise I don't know if we would have a shot at this seat.

Alaska: Tony Knowles is trying to deny he's running for senate in 2004. Fran Ulmer could run, though. Still, this is still Likely GOP territory.

It'll all depend on who Murkowski appoints.

Wisconsin: Tommy Thompson said he only wants to serve 2 years as HHS secretary. He's the most popular politician in the state.

Wow, think he might make a run at Finegold? Given that he barely got above 50% the last time, I'd say he's cooked!

Nevada: I'd be shocked if Harry Reid didn't run again. He's too much in love with himself not to. Unfortunately he's gotten some points for opposing Yucca, and might eek out another win even over a strong challenger.

You're probably right, but I think they'll give it a shot. It'll depend on how big the Yucca issue is.

What about California? Can we knock off Boxer? Or will the California GOP still be in the tank?

[Jeb08]

Failed gubernatorial candidate Van Hilleary should be back in will wallop Lincoln Davis. (TN-4)

New York 1 - how is it that the GOP keeps finding these horrendous candidates? First Michael Forbes (who switched parties in 1999) and then Felix "Fireworks" Grucci? Bishop is toast if we can find a candidate with a pulse.

[Jeb08]

Don't forget, Huckabee almost lost this time around. I think that he would lose against Lincoln. ASA HUTCHINSON, my friends. He has expressed interest in running and is more formidable than his brother.

Alaska is history, folks. Start saying it now: Senator Tony Knowles.

Feingodl almost lost in '98 because, to his credit, he refused to take outside cash. Thompson will be loaded. But can we win in a state that just elected left-wing AG Jim Doyle, a guy who doesn't look like he could govern a peanut farm?

[GraniteStateConservative]

I'm certain because there's no reason for him to run. Edwards isn't power-hungry. He's president-hungry. He doesn't want to hang out in the Senate.

Under any scenario of how the 2004 race would play out does it make sense for Edwards to be a senator in 2005.

Guinn isn't the only Republican that can beat Reid. Reid barely won in 1996 when the GOP had control of the Senate. Now we'll have a GOP Senate plus a popular Republican president running for re-election.

[GraniteStateConservative]

A well-financed Mary Bono would be a fine candidate against Boxer.

[nospinzone]

Guinn isn't the only Republican that can beat Reid. Reid barely won in 1996 when the GOP had control of the Senate. Now we'll have a GOP Senate plus a popular Republican president running for re-election.

That's key. If Bush remains as popular in 04 as he is now he will certainly pull in a lot of close races, including a few we may not otherwise win.

[GraniteStateConservative]

I don't know that Hilleary will seek that post. He'd risk losing two elections in a row.

[GraniteStateConservative]

I think you're wrong to put Knowles in office just yet. The GOP just had a 15-point romping over Fran Ulmer-- who wasn't a bad candidate at all. The state is reliably Republican as long as there is a strong Republican candidate. Hopefully, Murkowski will select one.

[JohnnyZ]

I'm certain because there's no reason for him to run. Edwards isn't power-hungry. He's president-hungry.

But he needs a platform to run from in 2008 if he can't get nominated this time around. I really can't see him as governor (Democrat Gov. "Tax Hike Mike" Easley might not run for reelection in 2004) and he at least relishes the national attention he gets grandstanding on the floor of the senate.

Arkansas: I agree that Asa is probably the most popular politician in the state, but why wouldn't Huckabee vs. Blanche Lincoln be any different from Huckabee vs. Jimmie Lou Fisher? The only reason Tim Hutch. went down was his divorce -- this is a good state for Republicans, especially with Dubya on the ballot.

Alaska: Whoever runs in 2004 will have the support & endorsement of Stevens & Murkowski. I'm confident that Murkowski's appointment will be of enough quality that they can hold the seat even against Tony Knowles. The appointment will be younger, for one thing, ready to build up years and years and years of seniority.

http://www.adn.com/front/story/2144648p-2231440c.html

In California there has been talk of Issa and Ose (I'm not crazy about Bono) as well as Condi Rice and US Treasurer Rosario Marin, a Mexican-born woman who could do wonders for the California GOP demographically even if she lost. I'm a big Chris Cox fan but he seems content in the House; The Terminator will run for governor, even though he's to the left of Richard Riordan on social issues.

[pbranham]

Don't forget, Huckabee almost lost this time around. I think that he would lose against Lincoln. ASA HUTCHINSON, my friends. He has expressed interest in running and is more formidable than his brother.

I was discussing this the other day with a friend of mine. We are both concerned that the Hutchinson name may have been sullied by Tim. Of course, to us political junkies it seems impossible to confuse the two -- But to the sheeple......

[GraniteStateConservative]

But he needs a platform to run from in 2008 if he can't get nominated this time around. I really can't see him as governor (Democrat Gov. "Tax Hike Mike" Easley might not run for reelection in 2004) and he at least relishes the national attention he gets grandstanding on the floor of the senate.

No, he doesn't. Many credible presidential candidates weren't in office at the time they ran, though they had served previously. GHWB wasn't in office in 1980. Reagan wasn't in office in 1980. Walter Mondale wasn't in office in 1984. Paul Tsongas wasn't in office in 1992. Lamar Alexander wasn't in office in 1996. Bill Bradley wasn't in office in 2000.

Edwards is focused. You don't get to where he got in life without being focused. He's focused on becoming president. He can do that with 6 years under his belt as a senator. He's unlikely to win the nomination, but even if he does and loses-- he'll be seen as a sacrificial lamb; not a poor candidate. He can raise money for his run in 2008 and set up his nationwide organization. He can donate money to politicians and collect chits. He can give speeches on public policy. He'll run as the experienced Southern outsider-- like Carter and Clinton.

[Jeb08]

I agree with you on California; if Dreier, Cox and Rice choose not to run, Marin would be my fourth choice. From what I heat, she is tremendously popular and well-known, and let's face it, it helps to have a Latino woman joining Bush at the top of the ticket. I'm sick of hearing about Schwarzenegger -- what makes anybody think that he's qualified as a politician.

I like the article from the ADN on Murkowski's potential appointments. Johne Binkley sounds good to me, as does Gen. Joseph Ralston. I heard a rumor from Bob Novak that Murkowski might appoint Jerry Hood, the head of the Teamsters -- I can only hope that this will not happen.

Don't underestimate Blanche Lincoln. She is likable and moderate, and when running for the House, she beat her former mentor in the Democratic primary. I don't think Huckabee can beat her. We need Asa, but that state remains "Leans Dem" for the time being.

I also have a good candidate for NC Gov - Rep. Walter Jones. If he runs for governor and Rep. Richard Burr runs for Senate, we could have a clean sweep in '04, with Bush at the top of the ticket.

[EternalVigilance]

PING to myself for later reference...

[JohnnyZ]

Two articles today at rollcall.com which may have resonance for the 2004 races: KY Rep. Ken Lucas (D) is deciding whether to switch to the GOP (he is the frontrunning D to challenge Jim Bunning) and senate Republicans are looking to reduce seats on senate committees, including appropriations, which could adversely affect several D's up for reelection.

Lucas Link

[EternalVigilance]

Thanks.

[scannell]

GOP has no candidate who can take on Boxer

What about the Terminator, or maybe Rudy moves to CA

[Jeb08]

Here's my problem with Republican strategy in the house: we always seem to go after conservatives and moderates who will vote with us most of the time anyway. In 1994, we won 52 House seats and 8 Senate seats, but our victories came over mostly moderates, which allowed the liberal wing of the Democratic party to re-energize themselves for future elections. We have to go after the heart of the beast wherever possible. My favorite target: Loreta Sanchez of CA's 39th District, Bob Dornan's old stomping grounds. Sanchez refused to cast a vote wishing President Reagan a happy 90th birthday. Let's go after some vulnerable liberals in '04.

In the meantime, we should be discussing potential running mates for Bush in '04. I love Cheney, but his health is questionable and he doesn't bring a state or a demographic group. Maybe we could recast him as Secretary of Defense. Possible choices that I like are Rep. Chris Cox (CA) and Gov. Mark Schweiker (PA).

[TatieBug]

Perhaps we should get Bo Derek to run against BOXER...certainly opposites in the looks department(#10) and you wouldn't have to be too smart to outsmart Boxer.

[JohnnyZ]

Jeb08, I agree with that to a certain extent, but if we can knock off most of the relatively moderate Democrats it's much easier to cast them as an extremist party. There are about 30 Blue Dog Democrat Reps out there, and about ten of them had very close races in 2002. I think we have the resources to do both, take down some of the moderates to get to 235 in the House (yes, I know this is a Senate thread, but . . .) which would leave the D's under 200, and field strong challenges to a whole bunch of liberals, which would ensure that our message gets out to everybody which will at the very least help with statewide races.

Sanchez is a 2-for-1, being a liberal Blue Dog!!!