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Davis has 14-point lead, poll finds
San Diego Union Tribune ^ | 4/28/2002 | John Marelius

Posted on 04/28/2002 7:22:06 AM PDT by dalereed

CALIFORNIA

Davis has 14-point lead, poll finds

By John Marelius

STAFF WRITER

April 28, 2002

Gov. Gray Davis, although still not held in high regard by California voters, has opened a 14-point re-election lead over his Republican challenger, Bill Simon.

In the first nonpartisan measurement of the campaign for California governor since the March 5 primary election, the Field Poll shows there is little enthusiasm for either major-party nominee.

It also shows the initial view of Simon as the Republican nominee is predominantly negative despite his stunning come-from-behind landslide victory over former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan last month.

"He's not had a very good period following the primary," said Mark DiCamillo, associate director of the Field Poll. "Usually, after you've won a primary there's sort of a halo effect. Simon appears not to have had a victory bounce. He's lost ground."

The statewide survey of voters considered likely to cast ballots in the Nov. 5 election shows Davis leading Simon 43 percent to 29 percent with 28 percent undecided or favoring other candidates.

In a late-February Field Poll, a hypothetical general election matchup showed Simon, a wealthy Los Angeles businessman who has never before run for office, leading Davis 44 percent to 42 percent.

The news is by no means all good for Davis, a Democrat. Fifty percent of the likely voters have an unfavorable view of the governor; 39 percent regard him favorably.

Pollsters often gauge an officeholder's vulnerability by asking voters whether they are inclined or not inclined to vote for the incumbent.

On that score, Davis' numbers have improved. In February, 54 percent said they were not inclined to vote for him, while 39 percent said they were.

Now it is virtually even: 46 percent inclined to vote for Davis to 47 percent not.

Perceptions of Simon have grown more negative since the primary.

DiCamillo said Democrats who may have paid little attention to the Republican primary campaign have begun taking the measure of Simon and finding him wanting.

"The Democrats who have come to judgment in the last seven weeks have almost universally gone to an unfavorable view of Simon," DiCamillo said.

The Field Poll looked better for Davis than several polls by private organizations floating around Sacramento, and the governor's campaign reacted cautiously.

"It's always good to be ahead, but there are going to be a lot of ups and downs in this campaign," said Davis campaign spokesman Roger Salazar. "But we've always said that when they look at the issues, people are going to realize that Bill Simon is not an acceptable choice."

Simon campaign manager Sal Russo said his candidate grew on Republicans as the primary campaign wore on, and he predicted the public at large would similarly warm up to him.

"These elections are referendums on the governor," Russo said. "And the fact that (Davis) is at 43 percent has got to be as low as any governor in history. Just as in the primary, as voters get to know Bill Simon, they will rally to his side."

The Field Poll is based on telephone interviews conducted April 19 through Thursday with 546 likely voters. The poll is considered statistically accurate 95 percent of the time within a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

Copyright 2002 Union-Tribune Publishing Co.


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KEYWORDS: calgov2002
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1 posted on 04/28/2002 7:22:06 AM PDT by dalereed
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To: dalereed
If the Republicans keep giving huge tax breaks to the rich and negligible tax cuts to the middle class ($30,000 - $200,000), the Reps will probably lose the House in this year's election.
2 posted on 04/28/2002 7:33:44 AM PDT by Tuco-bad
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To: dalereed;Ernest_at_the_Beach
The script here is so obvious. Last week, the press enleashed a fusillade of anti-Simon articles like Bill Simon's Enron Ties.

Three days later, a poll is taken to see if the articles had the desired effect.

3 posted on 04/28/2002 7:33:48 AM PDT by snopercod
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To: dalereed
Who took this poll, Paul Begala?
4 posted on 04/28/2002 7:40:05 AM PDT by rs79bm
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To: snopercod
The rich pay the taxes and are the ones that should get the tax breaks!

They should also eliminate the "earned income tax credit", it's just another name for welfare.

5 posted on 04/28/2002 7:45:22 AM PDT by dalereed
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To: dalereed
looks like california continues down the wacko's road...return california to mexico
6 posted on 04/28/2002 7:46:08 AM PDT by Bill Davis FR
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To: dalereed
Somehow this got posted to the wrong party, it was meant for tucobad, really bad!
7 posted on 04/28/2002 7:46:47 AM PDT by dalereed
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To: Tuco-bad
At it again, eh?

Can you explain to me how you can define the "middle class" as containing everyone but those who don't pay taxes (under 30m per annum) and .1% of the taxpaying population (excess of 200m per annum)?

I am DYING to hear this!

8 posted on 04/28/2002 7:47:17 AM PDT by Skip Ripley
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To: dalereed
The poll is considered statistically accurate 95 percent of the time within a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

This one must be in that other 5%.

9 posted on 04/28/2002 7:49:15 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone
JUST AS A NOTE TO ALL CALIFORNIANS AND OTHERS AROUND THE NATION -- THE FIELD POLL IS A LEFT-WING SKEWED POLLING ORGANIZATION. CONSERVATIVE CAUSES ARE ALWAYS UNDER REPRESENTED AND SHOW WORSE THAN REALITY IN ITS POLLS. THE FIELD ORGANIZATION IS LOUSY -- WITH A LEFT-WING TILT.
10 posted on 04/28/2002 7:51:54 AM PDT by sruleoflaw
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To: dalereed
This is a serious matter for Calif. We republicans have to stick together to make sure the upcoming elections for governer is on an honest track. We need to make sure honest reporting and honest elections take place. Question?...If any one knows how we can all network togehter to help monitor the legal vs. illegal voters let us know. The only way Grey Davis can win is through lies and illegal voters.
11 posted on 04/28/2002 7:54:38 AM PDT by jetson
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To: sruleoflaw
And the San Diego Union Tribune has been drifting further and further to becoming a left wing socialist rag over the last 10 years and is now getting close to mirroring the L.A. Times.
12 posted on 04/28/2002 7:56:02 AM PDT by dalereed
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To: Tuco-bad
Part of the reason I left California was that I couldn't stand the politics of the state. Gray Davis is a joke, the school systems are a joke, environmental policies are a joke, immigration policies are a joke, taxes are a joke, granting alternative lifestyles special rights are a joke...should I continue??? Unfortunately, I guess we get the representation we deserve. Sorry, to my conservative friends ou there.
13 posted on 04/28/2002 7:57:54 AM PDT by rucrazee
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To: dalereed
I actually have no trouble believing Simon is trailing at this point (though a 4.5% margin or error poll is about as garbage as they get). The media will attack him with ferocity throughout the campaign, and that attack has begun. Simon needs to find a way to overcome this in order to win.
14 posted on 04/28/2002 7:58:30 AM PDT by Snuffington
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To: Tuco-bad
If the Republicans keep giving huge tax breaks to the rich and negligible tax cuts to the middle class ($30,000 - $200,000), the Reps will probably lose the House in this year's election.

Scratch an elected Democrat hard enough and you'll find that $30,000 to $100,000 defines the rich.

15 posted on 04/28/2002 7:59:19 AM PDT by joeyman
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Comment #16 Removed by Moderator

To: Skip Ripley
At it again, eh?

Yes.

Can you explain to me how you can define the "middle class" as containing everyone but those who don't pay taxes (under 30m per annum) and .1% of the taxpaying population (excess of 200m per annum)?

Your .1% of the taxpaying population (excess of 200m per annum) should be 2%.

Also those under 30m per annum DO pay taxes (income, Social Security, Medicare, excise), though many get a rebate via the EIT (a form of welfare).

17 posted on 04/28/2002 9:32:12 AM PDT by Tuco-bad
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To: joeyman
Scratch an elected Democrat hard enough and you'll find that $30,000 to $100,000 defines the rich.

No matter what elected Democrates tell you: you are not rich.

18 posted on 04/28/2002 9:35:09 AM PDT by Tuco-bad
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Davis leads Simon in poll (But California voters less than thrilled with choices) (San Fran-sicko Comical)
19 posted on 04/28/2002 10:17:07 AM PDT by CounterCounterCulture
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To: joeyman
Scratch an elected Democrat hard enough and you'll find that $30,000 to $100,000 defines the rich.

To a democrat, anyone with a dollar more in their pocket than him is "rich". They're motivated by envy and hatred of the worst kind.

20 posted on 04/28/2002 2:00:29 PM PDT by snopercod
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