Posted on 10/14/2026 4:16:50 AM PDT by Mount Athos
It may seem logical that if the United States stops exporting diesel, more fuel will stay here and prices will fall. But more diesel in the United States does not necessarily mean lower prices at the pump, especially when the United States is not facing a shortage of diesel.
If refiners cannot export or economically store surplus diesel, some could reduce production, which tightens supplies, puts upward pressure on fuel prices and weakens U.S. energy security.
1. Export bans reduce fuel production Today, U.S. refineries are producing about 5.3 million barrels of distillate fuel per day, while domestic demand averages about 3.6 million barrels per day.
If exports are banned, refiners cannot simply stockpile unlimited diesel. They would have to reduce production. Because gasoline and diesel are produced together, producing less diesel also means producing less gasoline.
Less fuel production means tighter supplies and higher prices for both diesel and gasoline.
2. Export bans weaken U.S. energy security Many parts of the United States rely on imported gasoline and diesel because fuel produced in the U.S. cannot always be moved economically from where it is produced to where it is needed.
Removing U.S. diesel from global markets would tighten supplies and could increase costs for import-dependent regions like New England, especially as heating oil demand rises as the weather turns colder
3. Export bans help foreign competitors The United States is a major supplier of fuel to allies in Europe and the Americas. If U.S. exports disappear, those countries will still need fuel. They will need to find it from other suppliers, creating opportunities for competing nations to expand their influence in global energy markets.
4. Export bans risk retaliation Trading partners affected by a U.S. export ban could respond with restrictions of their own, making the United States more vulnerable to future supply disruptions. Regions that depend on imports would be particularly exposed.
Key takeaway Export bans do not create more fuel for Americans. They reduce U.S. fuel production, put upward pressure on prices, weaken energy security and hand market share to foreign competitors.
Why export ban would fail.
A story by the groups who profit most from it.
It is also unnecessary because the this is a short term price problem that will resolve in the next few months
In the case of a ban, it’s the US customer who will suffer.
The oil producers will make sure of it.
Folks aren’t seeing the big picture.
If the president is thinking what I think he’s thinking, this ban would hit our enemies hardest, serve a number of purposes including ending two wars sooner.
I call bullshit. If I were president I would ban all exports whenever the price in the US is higher than it was the week before. Also use the defense production power to require oil companies to produce at or above their five year average production for the entirety of the Iran conflict. Don’t like it then we will appoint a special master to administer the sale of your company to someone who can and will help us win this war. If there is anything history shows us it’s that the president has exactly as much power in our govt as he decides he needs in times of war just look to either Lincoln or FDR for proof
“this ban would hit our enemies hardest, serve a number of purposes including ending two wars sooner.”
Please explain...
The administration could always mandate that a percentage of the production of Diesel cannot be exported. Or they could set a cap and allow anything over the cap to be exported. That way, refineries would have an incentive to keep producing as much as they can so as to get more to export to places where Diesel is especially expensive right now - like Europe.
We are in an asymmetric war with Deep States all over the globe.
The oil market is a weapon in that war.
The president is choosing to take that weapon and beat them with it.
We are well positioned to do that.
What we need is the will.
The president clearly has it.
We need to have it as well.
It is very unimpressive. Prices will not lower for Americans, but not for the reasons stated. The “producers” are now a part of “The Green Energy Scam”. Why would they give up money? The Biden Cabal told them they would be selling De Beers Diamonds - high prices and low volumes.
“unnecessary because the this is a short term price problem”
Bet your ass it is. It is politics season for one. Pain equals votes for the out of power. Next we have sold almost every convenience stores in America to TCN’s who are all about profit. A local store owner let the cat out of the bag to me during a casual conversation. The remaining American owned stores can just point across the street and claim, “Look at the price over there”. It is win, win for businesses both ways. The Indian Mafia is in full swing. And last but not least, never in times of conflict has fuel raised like it has. This is pain for gain and punishment.
I am in favor of any action that increases Trump’s power. I expect that the US Military is in Iran because it is one of the few things he can control. Black-robed so-called “Judges” are telling him which checks to sign. There are only two years, left.
The “Swamp” is VERY deep, International and full of Alligators.
Exporting should be allowed as long as the price to US truckers was reasonable within the last measuring period. That should be tied to the price of crude within that period.
Imagine if you could sell 30% more of something if the price was 1% less, or 2% less, etc. and your profit margin was 20%.
This would put downward pressure on prices.
This is not price control. The refineries could sell at $20/gallon even if crude was $60/barrel, but would simply not be able to export.
TCN - Third Country National
Nope, no conflict of interest here.
Take this with a grain of salt as you read but it isn’t worth the reading. It is not even worth arguing with because it is so full of holes.
“this is a short term price problem that will resolve in the next few months”
Ukraine is increasingly using multiple waves of drones against individual refineries, seeking to overwhelm protective netting and other largely passive drone defence measures. Its long-range capabilities and targeting have also advanced rapidly, particularly during the first half of 2026. This expanded reach enabled the 7 July strike on Gazprom Neft’s 450 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) Omsk refinery, Russia’s largest, roughly 2,500 kilometres from the Ukrainian border.
As Ukraine becomes more effective at striking Russian refineries, it is increasingly targeting specific refinery units in an effort to maximise the impact of each strike.
Minor damage to a CDU can typically be repaired within one or two weeks. However, repairs to more complex secondary units, particularly those that have suffered serious damage, can take six to eight months on average.
As more units are damaged, replacement times are increasing, with Western sanctions limiting Russia’s access to some equipment suppliers.
Take a look at the diesel export graph about 85% down. The US, China, Other Asia and Other have made up for about as much as Saudi Arabia and Other Middle East have lost.
The amount of Russian export losses (caused by targeted Ukrainian attacks) have not been compensated for.
See the RAC graph “Increases in pump prices since outbreak of 2026 Iran conflict” about 25% down the page:
https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/advice/fuel-watch/
Note the second wave of diesel price increases starting in July due to the Ukrainian attacks. Diesel had lost 60% of its March increase.
China’s [new] molecular refining method works at an extremely small scale
The new technology uses a system of specially designed membranes. These membranes act like highly selective filters, allowing certain molecules to pass through while holding back others.
The researchers developed a two-stage separation process. The first membrane separates molecules according to their size. Its structure contains extremely small openings that allow some hydrocarbons to move through while restricting larger molecules.
The second stage focuses on chemical characteristics. Rather than relying only on molecular size, the membrane is designed to interact differently with compounds based on their chemical structure and surface properties.
“this is a short term price problem that will resolve in the next few months”
AFTER the GOP loses the midterms, right?
I think that’s part of the plan for November
We shall see how it works
An export ban has become a political imperative.
Esoteric arguments against it do not convince the masses. And they won’t.
I’m surprised POTUS has been able to endure this long.
Soon even Republicans will demand it.
Diesel is $8.99/gal at my local Chevron station.
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