Posted on 09/21/2026 2:59:33 PM PDT by DFG
This morning, President Trump announced on social media that the U.S. is working on a trade deal that would enable purchases of potash from Belarus:
The conflict in Iran has raised the cost of fertilizer to American farmers, so the administration is under pressure to address that cost. Potash (potassium) is an important fertilizer, but its cost has been impacted only slightly by the Iran conflict. Still, a trade deal that would lower the cost of potash would be welcomed by farmers. Hence this morning’s announcement.
But there is not yet a deal with Belarus. What is going on is a relaxation of sanctions on Belarus that potentially could lead to significant potash imports to the U.S. Should that happen, the main loser would presumably be Canada: the U.S. produces very little potash; we import 80% to 90% of our needs from Canada. Those imports are tariff-free, as potash was exempted from the latest round of Canadian tariff increases.
Whether any of this will actually happen remains to be seen. It does not appear to be imminent. But already, Trump’s announcement is affecting Canada’s domestic politics. There is a serious secession movement in Alberta. It probably doesn’t yet command a majority, but Canada’s laws do provide a process for secession, and it is not at all out of the question that one or more Western Canadian provinces will decide they have had enough of economically destructive left-wing policies coming from Ottawa. If Alberta were to secede, it would be a valuable trading partner for the U.S. We already import a lot of Albertan oil. And some would like to see Alberta become America’s 51st state, although the Democrats would block any such action for the foreseeable future.
This is how Rise of Alberta, the secessionist group in that province, responded to Trump’s announcement:
So Trump’s proposed potash deal may or may not come to fruition, and it may or may not someday prove to be economically significant. But his mere announcement of negotiations was intended to have immediate political consequences, both here–farmers will welcome the effort–and in Canada, where it will help to drive a wedge between the economic interests of the Western commodity-producing provinces and the Eastern liberal provinces.
Thus are trade policies and national and international politics intertwined.
ROTFL, sometimes Trump seems just plain mean, I would love to see Canada get some serious and permanently scarring and slapping around.
Belarus is already on record saying they have none to give and even if they did it would not be easy. The country is transit sanctioned still by all neighboring countries and are landlocked. That leaves Russia as the way to get it out. Then there’s the fact that it’s a dictatorship and a Russian puppet state. Great alternative.
We’re building an Army base in Poland, so the Poles must like us okay. The potash can come through Poland to the Baltic Sea. The railroad tracks don’t match up, so it would have to be trucked...beaucoup bucks.
You can’t just bring anything from Belarus to Poland. They have a ban on all transit from Belarus. That would have to be lifted first. Them, Belarus and Lithuania. That leaves Russia.
But that ignores the fact Belarus themselves are saying there’s no potash to give.
Meant Poland Lithuania and Ukraine have a transit ban.
Mean? He’s WAY TOO NICE
Like why is giving the time of day to that Islomocommie traitor.😡
Who?
Mandami
Then there's the fact that Belarus also facilitated Putin's surprise invasion of Ukraine.
I harbor no hate towards the Belarusian people, but they should be made to suffer for their complicity in that war crime!
Regards,
Belarus ships lots of potash to Chy na vis Russia, overland route
Belarus use of a port in Lithuania is blocked due to sanctions.
Belarus is forced to sell it’s resource at a discount.
Enter President Trump.
Buys Potash from Belarus in USD, slightly higher price, still a discount vs Canada.
Chy na turns to Canada to buy potash at market price. Canada does not have port infrastructure to layer in potash shipments.
Two birds, one stone
SPOILER ALERT:
There will be no deal.
Canada ships 12 million metric tons of potash to the US annually by rail.
Belarus’s total production is 6 million and totally spoken for.
Moreover, Belarus is landlocked. Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia won’t allow transshipment, so some circuitous route through (also sanctioned) Russia would be necessary.
And then there’d be shipping costs. The Baltic Dry Bulk Shipping index has risen about 89% since the beginning of the year.
You left out (a) how Belarus is going to create more production than what it’s already sold, and (b) how Belarus could possibly ship it to us.
I wonder what he has in mind then?
You forgot that Belarus is under sanctions and cannot use the port in lithuania and they currently ship overland to china.
All they need to do is turn on equipment now dormant due to sanctions, ramp up production and ship to buying customers.
Mebe your an idiot/dimwit or do not have any discernment
Sad to be you
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.