The # of programmers is always going down because so many of them leave the field to go into management. This is especially true of foreigners who see it as a sign of success.
Programmers are using AI, which streamlines their job a lot. Thousands of programmers are being laid off because of AI. Now I was a programmer and I would never just throw in AI code. But many do. So I think we are losing the need for bad programmers. Anyway my kids all program and they say lots of people just throw in AI code. So they are useless and will sooner or later lose their jobs.