That depends very much on the nature of that war - which we do have some control over. Iran has been a major drone supplier to Russia, so Iran certainly has had plenty of drones, and yet Iran's drones have barely dented Israel. This is due more to Israel's pro-active and extremely effective (if mostly rather conventional) "shoot the archer and the arrow maker" offense than it's actual drone defense. Neither Ukraine nor Russia has this advantage: For example, you don't see Russian fighter aircraft often over Ukrainian held ground, nor Ukrainian fighter aircraft over Russian held ground.
That said, and in agreement with your 2nd point, drones in the right situations CAN be very cost effective, and we have lessons to learn and APPLY, from the Ukies and the Russians. When appropriate, add tech of our own they don't yet have. AI-Smart, stealthy drones, IMO, have quite a future, and quite a scary future indeed if we don't keep up on all fronts.
They cannot establish air superiority.
We have b-2 bombers so we can establish air superiority.
Excellent, informative post. Thanks.