There will be no posting tomorrow. Out of town (again) with my SAR unit supporting a major trail bike event.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
No, we haven’t forgotten. Reddit continues to call for increased political violence
***
Arrests at tonight’s bridge bridge blocking demonstration in Cincinnati Ohio, the event was organized by marxist group Cincinnati Socialists
Charges are a mix of riot, obstructing emergency responders, disorderly conduct, failure to disperse, unlawful assembly, criminal mischief, menacing, and resisting.
The demonstration was done in support of Ayman Soliman, who had his asylum revoked (started under Biden admin in December) and was taken into ICE custody in June. Asylum was likely revoked due to a connection to Muslim Brotherhood group
***
Yesterdays protests appear to have been a bust. Very little news worthy events. Focus seems to have been stopping deportations and some budget cut items.
TRUMP Watch –
On Thursday, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that the president’s doctors have diagnosed Donald Trump with chronic venous insufficiency.
Chronic venous insufficiency (CVI) is a medical condition characterized by blood pooling in the veins, leading to increased pressure and strain on the vein walls.
Since functional venous valves are necessary to facilitate efficient blood return from the lower extremities, CVI primarily affects the legs.
When impaired vein function leads to significant symptoms such as oedema (swelling) or venous ulcer formation, the condition is referred to as chronic venous disease.
This is a common aliment of elderly and is not necessarily life threatening, unless other factors are present.
China -
EU sanctions on Russia are also hitting Chinese interests. China reportedly threatens to retaliate.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Kremlin: New European sanctions will have dire consequences for countries that support them
Logistics –
July 18, 2025: A frequent target of Ukrainian attacks are bridges vital to the Russian movement of troops and supplies. The Soviet Union, which both Russia and Ukraine belonged to from the 1920s to 1991, was heavily dependent on railroads. Those rail lines depended on many bridges and tunnels to remain operational. Naturally, Ukraine has been attacking Russian railroad operations deep inside Russia as well as near the Ukrainian border.
Russia’s railroads are under tremendous pressure because of the Ukraine War, sanctions and less money for maintaining railroads or anything else. One side effect is China using more reliable Central Asian railroads and sea routes rather than the collapsing Russian rail system. Speeds of Russian rail traffic have fallen to about 30 kilometers an hour compared to 48 for European rail traffic.
The Russia railways are state owned and run and are suffering an increasingly desperate labor shortage. Many younger railway employees are quitting to make a lot more money in the military. A growing number of older employees are retiring, although Russia has been able to get some retired employees to return to work by offering cash bonuses and high monthly salaries, in addition to the pensions the retirees receive.
Since last year there have been growing fears of a collapse of the Russian rail network. A symptom of this is the five percent decline in cargo carried last year. People in remote areas who depend on rail for supplies are going hungry because rail shipments arrive late or not at all. Another hunger is felt by Chinese firms that no longer have reliable trade routes with Russia are turning to Central Asian railroads and seagoing routes.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htsf/articles/2025071801118.aspx#gsc.tab=0
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-90 range, mostly sunny but with scattered thunderstorms..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s air defense shot down 36 Shahed-type drones overnight out of 64 launched by Russia, including decoys. The main axis of attack was Dnipropetrovsk region. EW units also suppressed 5 imitator drones
Russian losses per 17/07/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1190 men
+4 tanks
+1 AFV
+43 artillery
+1 AD system
Russian Territory –
Drone attacks targeted the Moscow region overnight and early morning, with explosions also reported in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod region.
Summary —
Well below average day for drone attacks, indicating that a major one is soon to come, should the current pattern continue. Ground action shows little to no changes of significance.
Rumblings from Moscow suggest that Trump’s recent pivot to rearm Ukraine and allow for deeper strike weapons has caught them flat footed.
Europe / NATO General –
Slovakia officially lifted its veto yesterday, allowing a new major package of EU sanctions against Russia to pass.
Over 20 new Russian banks and 105 additional Russian shadow fleet ships have been sanctioned, Russian oil faces a lower price cap, Nord Stream banned, and more.
The EU has passed its 18 package of sanctions after Slovakia dropped its veto.
2 Chinese banks to be listed. In Brussels this month, Wang Yi repeatedly warned Kallas that China would retaliate if this happened.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Israel continues pressure in Syria to help defend Druze.
- Hamas continues to lose ground in Gaza
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
The Israeli army and Shin Bet: We killed three senior officials in the General Security Service and Hamas’s emergency committees during raids carried out this week in the northern Gaza Strip.
***
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) confirmed 20 deaths this morning at its SDS3 aid site in Khan Younis. Nineteen people were trampled, and one was stabbed during a violent surge triggered by agitators in the crowd.
According to GHF, the chaos was deliberately incited by armed individuals affiliated with Hamxs. Multiple firearms were seen for the first time since GHF began operations, and one was confiscated. An American staff member was also threatened at gunpoint.
https://x.com/osint613/status/1945835807715074081?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Gaza fighting will continue at high intensity. Much of the fighting consists of Hamas attempting to set up ambushes with Israel detecting them early and hitting hard with air strikes.
Lebanon continues to see targeted attacks on Hezbollah leadership and sites by IAF
Iran continues on a tense pause
Syria and defense of Druze is a front burner issue for the IDF. See Syria below.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Iranian Foreign Minister: Any new round of negotiations will only be possible if the other side demonstrates its willingness to reach a fair and balanced nuclear agreement.
Trump: We are in no rush to negotiate with Iran
OBSERVATION - Clock is ticking for implementation of snap back sanctions. Iran has less than two months to make up their minds.
Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Potential IDF ground forces involvement in defense of Druze in S Syria.
The situation in Suwayda is approaching a critical threshold, while retaliatory arson by tribal fighters continues. Their next moves remain unclear - whether they will attempt to seize the city (where Druze fighters are heavily deployed) or apply enough pressure to force Druze factions into a deal concerning the Bedouin tribes in the province.
https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1946128508247220245
A statement by the Syrian tribes announces a general mobilization and a move to Sweida.
Thousands of jihadists from across Syria are being mobilized by the Syrian regime to Suwayda to carry out ethnic cleansing against the Syrian Druze community. Several surrounding villages are already under their control. Posing as civilian tribesmen, they hope to evade Israeli Air Force strikes.
***
Israel will allow the “limited entry of [Syrian] internal security forces” to the Sweida area for the next 48 hours, “in light of the ongoing instability” there, an Israeli official says in a statement to reporters
The Syrian president has sent security forces to try to deescalate tensions between the Bedouins and the Druze in Suwayda.
These are the same forces that clashed directly with the Druze earlier this week, and now they’re being sent to protect them.
***
Rumint. According to Al Mayadeen News:
- The President of Syria, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, left the Syrian capital Damascus accompanied by his family
According to unconfirmed reports, Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa has been transfered to Idlib
NOTE - This is the third separate report saying Jolani has left Damascus for safer realms.
- A military unit entered the Radio and Television building in a surprising move to take over the supervision of television operations
- An assassination operation targeted 3 prominent figures in the Syrian transitional administration, including Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
Foiled in having regular Syrian forces cleanse the Druze, Al-Sharaa (Jolani) is resorting to letting unofficial ‘tribal’ forces attack in the south - and by many accounts having been reinforced with de-uniformed Syrian military elements. The Druze in the south were a thorn in Assad’s rear end and Jolani wants to totally subjugate or eliminate them all together. He plays the ‘high’ road while actually supporting / encouraging the attacks.
With the escalation and mobilization of sunni tribes against them, Israeli promised support becomes more critical. With Iran operations done for now, there are a lot of air assets available. What may be necessary though is a ground intervention. Israel’s positions in Syria would provide an attack into the rear of the sunni tribes. A blitzkrieg of sorts could throw them into disarray. What is important is that Israel demonstrate strong support for the Druze who currently provide a stable flank region to Israel.
As noted up from, things are reaching a critical juncture. The big question is will Israel deploy ground forces or not and if so, how soon.
Turkey –
Erdogan spoke with Syrian President Ahmed Shara (Jolani), calling Israel’s strikes on Syria unacceptable and a threat to the region. He pledged continued Turkish support for the Syrian people.
The democrats will go nuts over this health report about Trump.
Chronic Venous Insufficiency (CVI)
https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/16872-chronic-venous-insufficiency-cvi
Treatment is close to what I expected, including exercise and weight loss to help improve blood flow.
It’s apparently very common.
Growing old is hell........
Once you realize what old people have to deal with as they deteriorate, it’s hard to look down on them and be impatient with them when they’re slower or an inconvenience, Except on the road. Some people should not be driving and there needs to be some sort of requirement for reflexes and awareness.
Took an extra day off, totally beat from Saturday’s activity. Report today is sorta spotty as a result.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
No significant protests noted over the weekend. Some gained headlines like an attempted bridge closure in Kentucky - where the police were having none of it and the protestors found out quickly.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.
The U.S. Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) has issued a formal warning to retired senior officials who previously served in U.S. Special Operations roles in Iraq and Syria and now reside in Florida, alerting them to a credible terrorist threat. The advisory, known as a “duty to warn notification,” was circulated earlier this week as part of a standard protocol when authorities receive intelligence indicating potential danger to current or former service members.
OBSERVATION - Looking at some posts by those potential affected by this warning, there is some skepticism. Mostly thinking this is a precursor to some sort of false flag event. However, given the influx of likely islamic terrorists, cannot totally rule out the warning.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
U.S. single-family homebuilding dropped to an 11-month low in June as high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty hampered home purchases, suggesting residential investment contracted again in the second quarter.
OBSERVATION - Again, noting that the housing market is a key indicator as to the health of the economy and a harbinger of future trends, this report continues to indicate that the economy is still deeply hurting. IMHO most of the hurt is due to the Fed withholding any rate decreases which would open up money for new housing. Lack of housing growth is serving to push the prices for homes, both new and used, higher across the country.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Aircraft carriers USS George Washington (CVN-73) and HMS Prince of Wales met Friday in the Timor Sea for operations as part of Talisman Sabre 2025.
“This powerful demonstration of naval power brings together advanced capabilities and carrier aviation, including HMS Prince of Wales’ air group of F-35B Lightning jets,” the Royal Navy said..
Friday’s operations mark the first time aircraft carriers from the U.S. and the U.K. have operated together as part of Talisman Sabre since the exercise began in 2005. Held every other year off the coast of Australia, the eleventh iteration of the multinational exercise began July 13 and will conclude July 27. The U.S. and the U.K. are among 19 countries and 35,000 troops participating in the exercise.
The dual carrier operations are also the George Washington CSG’s first major bilateral drill since returning to Japan. Meanwhile, the UKCSG’s participation in Talisman Sabre is part of its Operation Highmast deployment to the Mediterranean and Indo-Pacific.
POLITICAL FRONT –
A magnititude 7 political earthquake hit with the release of the evidence that Obama and his national security team cooking up an Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) that served as the foundation for years of investigations and false accusations against President Donald Trump. Further aftershocks have documents’/communications with hillary’s campaign to further the lie.
According to Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, this isn’t just about newly disclosed documents. There are now Intelligence Community whistleblowers coming forward, too.
“The implications of this are frankly nothing short of historic. Over 100 documents that we released on Friday really detail and provide evidence of how this treasonous conspiracy was directed by President Obama just weeks before he was due to leave office, after President Trump had already gotten elected. This is not a Democrat or Republican issue. This is an issue that is so serious it should concern every single American because it has to do with the integrity of our democratic republic.
“What we saw occur here, as the documents we released detailed, was that we had a sitting president of the United States and his cabinet and leadership team, quite frankly, who were not happy with the fact that President Trump had won the election, that the American people had chosen Donald J. Trump to be the next president and commander in chief of the United States.
“And so they decided that they would do everything possible to try to undermine his ability to do what voters tasked President Trump to do. So, creating this piece of manufactured intelligence that claims Russia had helped Donald Trump get elected contradicted every other assessment that had been made previously in the months leading up to the election that said exactly the opposite, that Russia neither had neither the intent nor the capability to try to ‘hack’ the United States election for the presidency of the United States.
“So, the effect of what President Obama and his senior national security team did was subvert the will of the American people, undermining our democratic republic, and enacting what would be, essentially, a years-long coup against President Trump, who was duly elected by the American people.”
OBSERVATION - The overwhelming question is will we see real accountability? Will we see these scum frogmarched and standing trial?
Reality is this scheme has been out there in the conspiracy realm since 2016/17. Tulsi has shown the integrity to the constitution and the country to finally produce the receipts and refer for criminal prosecution. Time will tell if the forces of the deep state will be able to suppress any accountability for these treasonous acts.
RELATED
The Hillary Clinton campaign was directly coordinating with the Obama White House to launch the Trump-Russia hoax in July 2016.
Hillary Clinton unleashed hell on this country when she hatched the ‘Trump-Russia collusion’ plot in 2016 to distract from her email scandal.
Hillary used a bogus dossier and conspired with foreigners and the FBI to spy on Trump’s 2016 campaign and presidency.
In July of 2016, then-FBI special agent Peter Strzok opened a counterintelligence investigation into Trump’s camp dubbed “Crossfire Hurricane” on suspicions (based on no evidence) that the Russians had infiltrated Trump’s circle.
TRUMP Watch –
President Donald Trump might visit China before going to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit between October 30 and November 1, or he could meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC event in South Korea, the South China Morning Post reported on Sunday citing multiple sources.
Illegal Immigration –
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) acting director Todd Lyons said in an interview that aired Sunday that his agency will crack down on American companies hiring unauthorized workers.
“Not only are we focused on those individuals that are, you know, working here illegally, we’re focused on these American companies that are actually exploiting these laborers,” Lyons said on CBS News’s “Face the Nation.”
“These people that came here for a better life. You know, either, you know, forced labor, child trafficking, you know, a lot of these work site cases — just isn’t a victimless crime of someone here working illegally,” he added. “And that’s why we’re going there with these criminal warrants to focus on these American businesses that are trying to make an extra dollar on the backs of these people that came here for a better life.”
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5411184-ice-crackdown-unauthorized-workers/
OBSERVATION - One response to the massive collection and deportation of these ‘workers’ at various companies has been when will these employers be held accountable for failure to follow the law and properly vet these workers. Now it appears that the wheels of justice are beginning to roll in that direction. From failure to properly vet to paying workers under the table, this has fueled a sector of the illegal push into the US.
China -
.See Trump watch above re: Trump / Xi meeting potential
Japan –
Exit polls today (20th) show that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority, in great part due to the surge in the rightwing vote
Japan’s prime minister Shigeru Ishiba is refusing to step down after ‘losing its grip on power’ in the upper house of the country’s parliament.
Ishiba minority government had already lost control of the more powerful lower house back in October.
OBSERVATION - Japan is entering a critical period. The govt is running deeply in the red and could face a massive, global shaking, meltdown. It is uncertain if the conservatives in the parliament can effect any change to the transjectory of the economy, but certainly the refusal of the liberal PM is not going to help matters.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
TASS reports new round of talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul in the end of this week
Logistics –
Russian TV aired a new report on Shahed/Geran production in Alabuga. The footage shows local engine manufacturing suggesting Russia may no longer depend on either Iranian or Chinese engines
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-80 range, mostly sunny but with scattered thunderstorms..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on another large-scale Russian missile/drone attack overnight:
Shot down:
403/426 Shahed and other type drones (of which 203 taken down by EW)
?/5 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
?/4 Kalibr cruise missiles
?/1 Iskander-K cruise missile
?/14 Kh-101 cruise missiles
According to the Air Force “The majority of missiles were shot down by air defense fire means, the rest were suppressed by EW/locally lost” without providing specific numbers.
Russian losses per 21/07/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1170 men
+2 tanks
+7 AFVs
+54 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD systems
A meeting of the Contact Group on Ukrainian Defense Issues in the Ramstein format has begun in Kyiv. Newly appointed Defense Minister Shmyhal is participating in it
North-Slobozhansky (Sumy) -
In the Sumy border region, Ukrainian forces have recaptured Kindrativka.
Russian Territory –
Train traffic—including military convoys—has been halted in Russia’s Rostov region after strike drones hit the strategic rail hub in Kamennolomni. This station was a key route for trains heading to occupied territories in Ukraine.
Summary —
Again, after a few days of low drone attack levels, Russia the past two days has cranked up the volume with missiles added to the mix. Civilians in Ukraine are especially being hit in addition to attacks on probable storage facilities and factories in Western Ukraine.
The fight on the ground remains relatively static. The exception being continued Ukraine successes in the Sumy sector. The recapture of Kindrativka is significant (if I’ve been able to keep spelling variants together) resulted in the cut off and loss of a sizable Russian force.
Don’t hold your breath on peace talks, just more posturing expected from Russia.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Airstrike against Houthis
- Ground offensive entering new terrain in Gaza
- Continued military and humanitarian support to Druze in S Syria
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel Katz and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hasegawa met at the Pentagon
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
On Sunday, the Israeli military (IDF) issued new evacuation orders for parts of central Gaza, which even after years of war with Hamas is an area where Israeli ground forces have rarely operated, further restricting access between Deir al-Balah and the southern cities of Rafah and Khan Younis.
It is the first time since the war broke out in October 2023 that the area of central Gaza has been targeted by IDF ground forces
Israeli tanks have advanced into the city of Deir al-Balah in central Gaza for the first time, with local doctors reporting several people there have been killed by shelling.
Footage shows Israeli air strikes in Deir al-Balah.
The Israeli military has previously avoided a major ground operation in the area – where it’s said to believe some remaining hostages may be held by Hamas.
There’s been no immediate comment from the army about its advances – a day after it issued evacuation warnings for tens of thousands of residents.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cvg9ky87dpdt
***
Hostage deal Negotiation: Hamas is dragging its feet and has refused for several days to discuss the list of terrorists to be released in exchange for the hostages. Last night, a new proposal was presented by the mediators, which has not yet been answered by the parties.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
IDF Strikes reported in Yemen’s western port city of Al-Hudaydah.
IAF reported that one aircraft, supported by refueling and intel planes, hit maritime infrastructure the Houthis were trying to rebuild including the docking pier and engineering equipment.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
I don’t expect progress in the hostage/ceasefire negotiations with Hamas.
Things very tense still in S Syria as the Druze are holding their sector, but blood thirsty sunni ‘tribes’ brutally murdering druze in the western and northern areas. See Syria below.
IDF push into Deir al-Balah is significant and could generate pivotal later actions.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
According to Turkish diplomatic sources, nuclear talks between Iran and the UK, France, and Germany are scheduled to take place in Istanbul on Friday
***
In a call last night with @araghchi, E3 foreign ministers and @kajakallas put on the table the possibility of extending the deadline for snapback under the nuclear deal, according to sources. The asks of Iran were a resumption of nuclear talks with the US and E3 and resumption of cooperation with the IAEA.
***
Iranian Army: Damaged defense systems have been replaced with new ones and deployed in pre-determined locations.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Iran is now in the delay game mode to prevent imposition of ‘snap back’ sanctions that would in the large part seriously impact its oil exports. Other bleats from Iran consist of efforts to try to rebuild its military image in the region.
Lebanon -
U.S. Envoy Tom Barrack, during his visit to Beirut, stated: “I’ve returned to Lebanon because President Trump is committed to regional stability, and Lebanon plays a key role. We need to focus on it now to help restore security across the region. The ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel hasn’t held, and we’re working to address that.”
He added, “The issue of disarming Hezbollah is a domestic Lebanese matter. As far as the U.S. is concerned, Hezbollah is a foreign terrorist group. We’re here to support, advise, and encourage dialogue, but we cannot force Israel’s hand.”
Syria -
Threat Level - WATCH July 21, 2025
Upgraded due to IDF involvement in defense of Druze in S Syria.
Watch level upgraded
Israel says it transferred medical equipment last night, including trauma care supplies and life-saving medications, to the hospital in Sweida, Syria, following reports of severe damage to the hospital and in order to provide assistance to the wounded on site. The delivery was made by security forces and the Israeli army. The Ministry of Health says it is planning to transfer additional medical supplies and medications in subsequent phases
***
Syria: following negotiations, a total of 1,500 Bedouins who were blocked (some detained, others trapped) in Suwayda province were freed in different batches and evacuated from the province
***
Commander of Internal Security in Sweida Governorate: The Syrian government is making strenuous efforts to de-escalate the situation.
Internal Security continues its deployment in the Sweida countryside in implementation of the ceasefire agreement.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
First, fighting continues, though things have leveled out. This is a no holds barred assault. Abundant videos to social media by the sunni tribes showing execution of families and other atrocities.
Second, numerous soldiers from the ‘official’ govt military have donned civilian clothing and fighting the druze. I’ve said it before, this action is fully supported by Joulani. Govt forces, under the current announced ceasefire are having minimal effect in keeping the tribemen out.
Third, Israel is obviously monitoring the situation closely, ready to strike in defense of Druze forces. Rumors of an IDF Druze manned unit potentially being readied or already on the ground in Sweida. Further rumor that IDF ground forces have moved within miles of the area.
I doubt that this cease fire is really going to go the distance. The sunni “tribesmen” are bound and determined to exterminate the Druze from the region. And this includes Christians and any other minority group.
How big this will break out depends on the foreign pressure on Jolani to separate the parties and install a ceasefire. Druze don’t trust him and rightly so.
Venezuela -
Ten Americans, including former Navy SEAL Wilbert Joseph Castaneda, were released from Venezuelan custody in a prisoner swap involving the U.S., El Salvador, and Venezuela. CBS reports the swap included 250 Venezuelans deported to CECOT for their alleged ties to the Tren de Aragua gang.