CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Wide variety of protests ranging from anti-DOGE/Musk, pro-Illegals, anti-anything Trump, etc are growing in numbers, but so far most violence is being directed against Tesla - see below.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Mar 18, 2025
Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
A website called “Dogequest” has reportedly published the names, addresses, and phone numbers of Tesla owners across the U.S., complete with an interactive map and a Molotov cocktail cursor.The site claims it will only remove personal data if owners prove they’ve sold their Teslas, in an apparent backlash to Elon’s ties with the Trump administration.This comes as Tesla dealerships face gunfire, arson attempts, and Cybertruck owners report harassment, while anti-Tesla protests ramp up nationwide.
OBSERVATION - Violence / vandalism against anything Tesla/Musk is growing and prime organization site is Redditt.
ADDITIONAL NOTE - reportedly the Dogequest site has been taken down for now.
***
Multiple vehicles were destroyed in an arson attack at a Tesla service center in Las Vegas on the morning of March 18.
FBI and ATF have now begun investigating the firebombing at a Tesla showroom in Kansas City, MO last night.
***
A trans leftist in Buffalo Grove, Ill. was arrested on March 14 for allegedly attacking a newly constructed Tesla service center near Chicago.
Erin L. White, 27, has been charged with felony criminal damage to property and criminal trespass.
White is at least the third known arrested trans person who has allegedly attacked Tesla property recently following calls from leftists for domestic terror attacks as revenge against elon musk and Trump.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1902188015952204157?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
***
Forward Observer has weighed in on the suspected terror attack against a hospital -
“Command Eleven, an apparently Pakistan-based private intelligence firm, is warning of an imminent terror attack against U.S.-based hospitals.”
“A complex attack involving a vehicle-borne IED will target “a hospital in a mid-tier [U.S.] city” followed by a swarm of armed attackers immediately taking hostages. (Analyst Comment: Hostage scenarios historically involve demands for the release of imprisoned members of terrorist groups. It’s at least possible that attackers do not expect a swap, and instead want a protracted media event for psychological effect.)”
“Command Eleven reports this event will happen within the next three weeks. The Islamic State will reportedly take credit. (AC: Three weeks from the date of information is Monday, 07 April. Islamic holiday Eid al-Fitr runs from Saturday, 29 March to Sunday, 30 March.)”
“Sarah Adams, a former CIA analyst, who’s made similar claims of an impending terror campaign said her organization is treating this report as “credible and are advising medical facilities to run drills and harden security.” Adams added that the Command Eleven was able to confirm information similar to what she’s collected from Afghanistan-based terrorist training camps”
FO analysis of the information - “We’re unable to confirm or deny the claims of Command Eleven and Sara Adams, however, my approach to these claims considers feasibility, appropriateness, consistency, and timing (FACT). Is it feasible that Islamic terror groups will target a hospital in the next three weeks? Yes. Is it reasonably appropriate for terrorists to attack a civilian target such as a hospital in the next three weeks? Yes. Is it consistent with what we know about the tactics and desired objectives of Islamic terror groups? Yes. And finally, the timing of this warning does coincide with Eid al-Fitr, an Islamic holy day where suicide bombings have historically occurred abroad.”
“I concur there’s a need to treat this seriously and be prepared for potential terror attacks.””
MY OBSERVATION - As I’ve noted yesterday, the scenario is VERY plausible and similar to other terror attacks in other countries over the years. Validity of the threat depends on the reliability of the sources - cannot judge at this time.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
Fed officials at this week’s meeting are expected to hold interest rates steady but adjust their views on the economy and possibly the future path of interest rates.
The committee could maintain its outlook for two cuts, remove one or both, or, improbably, add another as a statement of concern over a potential slowdown. Everything seems to be on the table.
Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues in recent weeks have advocated a patient approach in which they don’t need to be in a hurry to do anything.
OBSERVATION - The results of any tariffs are yet to be seen in either the short or long term. Same to for economic measures to stimulate the private sector and cut to the fed govt spending.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts said impeachment of federal judges is not an appropriate response to their rulings against the Trump administration
OBSERVATION - Roberts has thrown gasoline on the fire of rogue justices perverting law and constitution to attack Trumps efforts. This could lead to a major constitutional crisis as it would encourage further rogue justices to rule unconstitutionally against Trump.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
White House: President Trump and Putin agree on steps toward a Ukraine ceasefire, starting with energy and maritime negotiations. Talks will begin immediately in the Middle East. Both stressed improving U.S.-Russia relations and preventing Iran from threatening Israel
OBSERVATION - IMHO the talks were a big nothing burger.
Russia -
Putin effectively rejected the proposal for a complete ceasefire.
In the run up to today’s (yesterday’s) call, Donald Trump made a big deal of his conversation with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
But the results look like there’s little to shout about.
The Russian president has given the US leader just enough to claim that he made progress towards peace in Ukraine, without making it look like he was played by the Kremlin.
Trump can point to Putin’s pledge to halt attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for 30 days. If that actually happens, it will bring some relief to civilians.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyg2kzkggvo
Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin agreed to an immediate ceasefire on energy and critical infrastructure in Ukraine on their call yesterday. Negotiations on a maritime ceasefire, full ceasefire, and peace will begin immediately in the Middle East.
Putin issued an ultimatum for peace talks in Ukraine: Ukraine should withdraw from Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, recognize everything above, and also Crimea as Russia and refuse to join NATO ever
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures in the 30s - 50s range.
Zelensky: Ukraine will prepare and provide a list of energy, infrastructure and civilian facilities that the Russian Federation should stop attacking; and if Russia stops attacking these facilities, Ukraine will also not strike the energy sector of the aggressor country
RUMINT –
Putin wants to launch a maximum offensive in the Zaporizhia, Sumy, and Kharkiv directions, and develop success in the East in the coming months, — Zelensky
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched 145 Shahed drones. A total of 72 were shot down and another 56 were lost in location, presumably due to electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 19/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+1060 men
+12 tanks
+14 AFVs
+64 artillery pieces
+1 MLRS
After a series of Russian strikes targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, Russian channels report that Ukrainian attack drones successfully hit a Russian Rosneft fuel depot in Krasnodar.
The Russian fuel depot is burning.
A Ukrainian attack on the Unecha oil pumping station resulted in the complete destruction of the 110 kV “Vysokoe” substation, cutting off its power supply. LPS “Unecha” is a key hub for oil transit via the Druzhba pipeline to Ust-Luga, a major export route for Russian oil.
Summary —
Effective results from the Trump/putin talks yesterday won’t be seen for days, and depend on putin’s sincerity - which I strongly doubt. Putin thinks he has trump on a string - and so far trump seems to be willing to let that view stand.
Rumors of Russian offensives in other sectors is feasible if Ukraine doesn’t have the weapons and ammo. But Russia has contributed substantial resources in Kursk and Pokrovsk and I really don’t see them having the force reserves to launch these multiple attacks in any large scale. More likely attempts to increase the tempo of attacks in these sectors.
Europe / NATO General –
(FO) French President Macron told the Luxeuil-Saint-Sauveur Air Base that they will receive a 1.5 billion Euro upgrade to host the Rafale F5s which enter service in 2030.
The Rafale F5s will be upgraded with the ASN4G nuclear missile in 2035 which will have at least a 1000km range. The current Rafale fighters and their ASMPA-R nuclear missiles can just reach Moscow from Luxeuil-Saint-Sauveur.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IAF continues to strike Gaza targets, eliminating more Hamas leadership
- Warnings of an impending ground offensive sent to Gazans.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel’s Foreign Ministry on Tuesday night blasted UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres over his latest criticism of Israel’s strikes in the Gaza Strip.
In response, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Oren Marmorstein wrote, “We are outraged that you, Antonio Guterres, are the Secretary-General of the UN.”
“Not a word about the fact that Hamas rejected two American proposals to extend the ceasefire and release more hostages—two proposals that Israel accepted,” added Marmorstein.
“Not a word about the fact that Hamas exploits the transfer of goods to Gaza to rebuild its war machine in order to further attack Israel.”
“Not a word about UNRWA, which, under your leadership, employs Hamas terrorists, and whose facilities were used by Hamas to hold hostages. Indeed, we are outraged by your moral bankruptcy,” the Foreign Ministry spokesperson concluded.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-64/
***
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday defended the resumption of airstrikes in Gaza, saying that negotiations on restoring the ceasefire would continue “only under fire.”
In a briefing, Netanyahu said military pressure on Hamas was a “critical condition” for securing the release of hostages held by the militant Islamist group, adding: “This is just the beginning.”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Israel PM Netanyahu says strikes against Hamas to intensify, adding that talks would be held only under fire
The Israeli army dropped leaflets over the eastern outskirts of Khan Younis in southern Gaza urging residents to evacuate immediately. Additionally, the Israeli army reiterated its warning to residents of Beit Hanoun in northern Gaza to leave as their areas are about to become active combat zones
***
Gaza reports: Yasser Harb, a member of Hams’ political bureau, was killed tonight, joining his five sons, Nuhba terrorists in Hams’ military wing, who were killed during the fighting in Jabaliya. Naji Abu Seif, better known by his kunya, Abu Hamza, the spokesman for the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s military wing, was eliminated in Gaza.
Asharq Al-Awsat reports that senior Hamas commander Jamil al-Wadiyya, commander of the Al-Qassam Brigades’ Shuja’iyya Battalion, was eliminated in an IAF airstrike.
According to the report, he was responsible for the handover of three female IDF soldiers during the recent wave of hostage releases.
Asharq Al-Awsat also reports the death of Mohammed Abu Ajwa, a Qassam Brigades field commander in the Tel al-Hawa neighborhood.
Hassan al-Naim “Abu Ali”, head of Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s rocket unit, was eliminated in an IAF strike in Khan Yunis this morning.
***
The IDF announced that it launched a large-scale offensive in the Gaza Strip, especially in the neighbourhoods of Beit Hanoun, Hirbet Huza’a, Abasan al-Kabira and al-Jadidah, and that these areas must be evacuated.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli warplanes launched airstrikes on the Khan Arnabeh area in Syria’s southern Quneitra province
IAF airstrike reported in the Shinshar area of Homs, Syria
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Israel intercepted a ballistic missile fired by Iran-backed Houthis from Yemen, the IDF says. The missile was downed before crossing into Israel, with no reported injuries or damage. Sirens blared in Beersheba, Dimona, and other southern towns. This marks the first Houthi attack since January 18, just before the Gaza ceasefire.
***
US airstrikes continue. Airstrikes by the U.S. Navy reported now on the Saada and Sanaa Governorates of Northern Yemen.
According to Houthi media, the U.S. launched a wave of airstrikes, with at least 10 strikes hitting Houthi-controlled regions across Yemen, including Taiz, Saada, and Hajja.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Qatar strongly condemns the Israeli raids on Daraa, considering them a blatant attack on Syria’s sovereignty and unity and a flagrant violation of international law. It calls on the international community to take action to compel Israel to comply with international laws and norms and cease the attacks, thus preventing further escalation and tension in the region.
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs: I told the Israeli Foreign Minister that the situation in Gaza is “unacceptable”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Back to complaints of Israeli operations by the standard group of Europeans / arabs. Tempo of airstrikes appear to be declining slightly, but still hitting Hamas elements hard. Ground ops are impending, probably within a few days.
US continues continuous air and cruise missile strikes against the Houthis. The Houthis for their part still claim to have sunk the US fleet - for the fourth time. They also attempted a ballistic missile strike on Israel - failed. Such action only guaranteed more extended air strikes on Houthi facilities - both military and political.
Iran –
The Iranian rial is crashing and has reached one million rials to the dollar.
OBSERVATION - This is disastrous for Iran’s economy, as goods imported are priced in dollars.
Lebanon -
Renewed clashes on the Hawsh al-Sayyid Ali axis between the Syrian army and the Hezbollah militia. Securing the other side of the border in the village of Hawsh Bint Ismail is the mission of the Lebanese army, as Hezbollah militants launch from that area to launch night raids on the Syrian army
Turkey –
Report in Turkey: Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Erdogan’s biggest political opponent, was arrested this morning as part of an investigation into his case.
Social media is now restricted.
Public demonstrations were prohibited.
The stock market is falling.
OBSERVATION - Erodogan doesn’t have full, popular support of Turks. This action has the potential for growing civil unrest.
A website called “Dogequest” has reportedly published the names, addresses, and phone numbers of Tesla owners across the U.S., complete with an interactive map and a Molotov cocktail cursor.The site claims it will only remove personal data if owners prove they’ve sold their Teslas, in an apparent backlash to Elon’s ties with the Trump administration.This comes as Tesla dealerships face gunfire, arson attempts, and Cybertruck owners report harassment, while anti-Tesla protests ramp up nationwide.
Where’s the FBI on this one?
Why the hell aren’t the stupid bimbos and pretentious ‘men’ of the corrupt press clutching their pearls?
Is it because they’re biased little sh*ts who don’t give a damn about violence when it’s done FOR THEIR CAUSE?
Thanks Godzilla
Reportedly spring has arrived. Snow in the forecast here in the Redoubt.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Left-wing activist group Seattle Indivisible is promoting an anti-Elon Musk and Tesla Takedown protest this weekend.
Another left-wing nonprofit organization The Development Coordinator at the Warehouse Worker Resource Center is organizing Tesla Take Down in Manhattan this weekend.
NOTE - The violence directed toward Musk and Tesla cross over with Terrorism as well.
OBSERVATION - I expect that more of these protests will be announced as the weekend approaches.
***
Democrat Congresswoman @JasmineForUS Jasmine Crockett spoke on a CALL TO ACTION call organized by the @Tesla Takedown organizers who have been vandalizing and attacking @elonmusk’s Tesla Showrooms and charging stations across the country and all over the world.
Crockett said her birthday is on March 29th, and “all I want to see happen on my birthday is for Elon to be taken down.”
OBSERVATION - Crockett has been very vocal in calling for violence against Tesla owners and dealership. Also terroristic in nature.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Mar 18, 2025
Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
Rick Wilson is.. the Lincoln Project founder was caught sending sexually explicit messages to 14 year old boys.
Wilson is explicitly calling on Americans to “Kill Tesla, Save The Country,” urging direct attacks against the company explaining Tesla is Elon’s weak spot. He portrays Tesla as a “bank for fascists” and a “goose-stepping hedge fund” financing Musk’s ambition to seize control of the US government, amass a trillion-dollar fortune, and crown himself Emperor of Mars. This isn’t political hyperbole—it’s a full-throated call to cripple a private enterprise under the guise of combating authoritarianism. The irony, of course, is lost on Wilson.
Before targeting Tesla, Rick Wilson said that someone needed to “put a bullet in Donald Trump” to stop him. Now calling Trump and Elon Musk authoritarian dictators, his extreme rhetoric and call for an attack on Tesla are unhinged and dangerous.
OBSERVATION - Crosses over to CW2 as well. Unhinged leftists continue the open calls for violence in opposition to Trump and Musk.
RELATED -
Antifa and far-left violent extremists are sharing a guide on how to use modified incendiary devices to burn down Tesla vehicles and other cars in targeted domestic terrorist attacks meant to intimidate elon musk and President Trump.
The Justice Dept says it is treating the string of violent attacks on Tesla property, including shootings and firebombings, as domestic terrorism. The suspects apprehended so far have not been charged with terror-related offenses.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1902397301152219582?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
(Reuters). Fed leaves policy rate outlook unchanged amid projected growth slowdown, temporary inflation jump
they still anticipate reducing borrowing costs by half a percentage point by the end of this year in the context of slowing economic growth and, eventually, a downturn in inflation.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has attributed inflation to tariffs, even though significant tariffs are not scheduled to take effect until April 2nd.
Taking stock of the Trump administration’s rollout of tariffs, Fed officials actually marked up their outlook for inflation this year, with their preferred measure of price increases expected to end the year at 2.7% versus the 2.5% pace anticipated in December. The Fed targets inflation at 2%.
But they also marked down the outlook for economic growth for this year from 2.1% to 1.7%, with slightly higher unemployment by the end of this year.
OBSERVATION - Fed action is not unexpected and on the cautious side. Delays are not denials, but will continue to stress the economy with high interest rates.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Are Schumer’s days in leadership numbered? Schumer went on The View, apparently in search of supporters. Meanwhile, pelosi took a second knife and slammed it into his back. Progressive/marxist democrats are livid that Schumer reversed on the CR, with many calling for his resignation and replacement as minority leader. This is just one component of a much wider festering civil war among the democrats in congress.
James Carville predicted Tuesday there could be an “uprising within the Democratic Party” in the coming months if top lawmakers’ “plan” does not yield results.
***
Transgender ruling is hitting rocks -
” . . the injunction relies on objectively false information and independent “research” done by Judge Reyes. Civil liberties attorney Laura Powell has details.”
““Judge Reyes’s opinion relies in part on her independent research into disorders of sexual development (DSD), which is not part of the record. Judges are not allowed to do this.””
““Not surprisingly, her information is wrong. For example, she cites the erroneous figure that 1.7% of Americans are intersex.””
““She also makes assertions about where people with DSDs would be housed, based on no evidence whatsoever. (She asked the DOJ attorney the answer to that question, and he said he did not know.) This case has nothing to do with people with DSDs, many of whom were banned from serving in the military for years after the ban on trans people was lifted, which was never challenged.””
OBSERVATION - Evidence of judicial activism continues to grow with rulings like this. IIRC Reyes was a ‘celebrated’ LGBT activist before being put on the cours.
Illegal Immigration –
Reports that Border Patrol holding facilities are near capacity.
Russia -
Analysts pointing out that putin and his mouthpieces are deliberately obfuscating details and particularly dates of the proposed cease fire in order to try to pin Ukraine on violating those ‘points’ and permit it to continue the attacks.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
UK’s Defence Intelligence says Russia’s armed forces have likely suffered around 900,000 casualties - including up to a quarter of a million killed - since launching their full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This represents Russia’s “largest losses since WW2”
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures in the 30s - 50s range.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched 171 drones of which 75 were shot down. Another 63 were lost in location, presumably drone-simulators or supressed by electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 20/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1400 men
+13 tanks
+38 AFVs
+43 artillery systems
+2 MLRS
+3 AD systems
Russia’s Engels Airbase, home to a significant portion of the Russian Air Force bomber fleet, suffered a massive explosion after a Ukrainian drone attack this morning. Evacuations are underway in nearby areas. The Russian base reportedly housed three Tu-95MS and two Tu-160 bombers. Debris from the blast scattered up to 5 km, possibly damaging the planes. Locals report secondary detonations.
Russians have unleashed hell in Kropyvnytskyi. Over 30 explosions in just a few hours. Waves of airstrikes were repelled, but danger persists as more missiles head towards the city. Fires continue, and the damage to civilian infrastructure is severe.
Despite Russian claims of control, Russian channels now report that Ukrainian forces have pushed past defensive lines near Demidovka, Belgorod border region. According to Russians, Ukrainian forces are using fiber optic drones en masse.
NOTE - Photos on social media show so much fiber optic cables in the trees that it looks like a giant spider web.
“The enemy is expanding its control zones. IMR (engineering vehicle) is expanding the passage. Our guys are countering, but the situation is complicated.”
Summary —
More moderately heavy fighting on the ground with Ukraine in the process of a significant offensive action in the Belgorod border. At the moment I don’t see this growing to Kursk levels but will successfully tie down Russia forces that potentially may attempt to attack towards Sumy.
Russia approaching the 900k casualty mark. Associated with this has been the massive amount of tanks, APCs and other equipment destroyed. Even if a ceasefire were to be implemented tomorrow, it would take years for Russia to rebuild its army to the point of being able to attack NATO countries, most likely those in the Baltic region.
A high number of drones got past the defenses overnight and did considerable damage.
The Ukraine strike on Engels Airbase looks substantial. Videos posted to social media show massive explosions / secondaries from an ammo dump located on the northern end of the airfield. Questions arising concerning if the debris thrown up to 5 km damaged any of the strategic bombers at the base.
Political maneuvering over the ceasefire continues, with putin appearing to have the upper hand and trump operating from a position of weakness. Not good for hopes of an end to the conflict.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF ground forces move into all portions of Gaza.
- Netzarim Corridor retaken with little resistance
- Houthis launch ballistic missiles towards Israel, intercepted before entering country.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
(JPost) Hamas reportedly willing to accept ‘any proposal’ in exchange for ceasefire resumption
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
The Israeli military says it launched ground operations along the coastal road in the far north of the Gaza Strip, close to Beit Lahiya. Over the past few hours, troops of the 252nd Division pushed into the area, Ahead of the operation, the IDF says it carried out strikes on Hamas infrastructure in the area, including anti-tank missile launch posts in Beit Lahiya.
IDF officially confirms: Israeli forces have initiated a focused ground operation in the central and southern Gaza Strip
Israeli army: Our forces expanded their control in the Netzarim axis in the Gaza Strip. Palestinian sources reported that tanks and ground troops started reoccupying the largely vacated Netzarim Corridor. The IDF cut off the northern Gaza Strip from the central and southern Gaza Strip with its retake of the Netzarim axis
Israeli army: The air force attacked 20 targets throughout the Gaza Strip last night.
IDF FINAL WARNING: Evacuate Now!
Residents of Bani Suhaila, Gaza, this is your last warning before the raid! Terrorists are launching rockets from civilian areas. For your safety, move west immediately to known shelters!
Three long-range rockets were launched from the Gaza Strip at central Israel a short while ago, the military says. According to the Israeli army, one of the rockets was intercepted by air defenses, while the other two struck open areas. There are no immediate reports of injuries in the attack, the first by Hamas on central Israel since October 7, 2024
The IDF killed the commander of the Shajeya Brigade in Hamas’ Gaza Brigade.
Hamas: The ground incursion into central Gaza is a new and dangerous violation of the ceasefire agreement.
NOTE - LOL
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli forces have advanced into new areas of the Quneitra Governorate in southern Syria, entering the village of Al-Asha, reaching the village of Al-Rafid before heading to the village of Abu Ghara in the governorate.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Israeli army said a rocket was launched from Yemen towards Israel. The Israeli army says the missile was intercepted before entering Israeli territory
***
The Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist group is claiming to have downed yet another U.S. Air Force MQ-9 “Reaper” Surveillance and Attack Drone today over the Dhamar Governorate of Southwestern Yemen. So far there has been no confirmation yet by the U.S. Department of Defense or evidence provided by the Houthis, but if true, this would be the 16th MQ-9 to be shot-down by the Houthis since 2023.
***
Three powerful US Navy airstrikes blast Houthi sites in Al-Jiraf, Sana’a. Houthi media says U.S. heavy airstrikes targeted Hodeidah and Saada governorates in western and northern Yemen overnight.
***
US Air Campaign in Yemen: US Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted at least 17 airstrikes targeting Houthi industrial and administrative sites across Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen since CTP-ISW’s cutoff on March 18.
- CENTCOM struck al Hebshi Iron Factory, north of Hudaydah Port, twice in two days.
- Local and regional media reported that CENTCOM also conducted airstrikes on the Houthi’s Communications Ministry and Postal Authority in Sanaa City, as well as several sites in the Houthi stronghold of Saada Governorate.
- Yemeni journalists also reported that US airstrikes in Al Jawf Governorate, northern Yemen, on March 16 killed three Houthi officials, including Commander Zain al Abidin al Mahtouri in al Hazm City, al Jawf Governorate. Mahtouri reportedly trained in Iran in 2020.
***
The Houthis launched an unspecified number of drones and cruise missiles targeting the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier and US destroyers in the Red Sea on March 18.
***
US President Donald Trump warned Iran against sending supplies to the Houthis on March 19. The Houthis are aligned with Iran and Iran is almost certainly still supplying them with weapons, but the Houthis sometimes act without direct Iranian approval.
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1902541217721672077?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The sudden readiness expressed by Hamas to accept ‘any proposal’ in exchange for ceasefire resumption strongly indicates the sudden resumption of attacks caught them unprepared and have hurt them hard. They could be realizing that their worst nightmare is upon them.
Israel is quickly reclaiming territory it controlled before the ceasefire Phase 1 began with little to no Hamas resistance. It is also pressing towards areas the biden forced Israel to avoid in central and southern Gaza. Netanyahu has stated that the attacks will continue to ramp up until hostages are released and Hamas has been eliminated.
Houthis bought themselves some more US airstrikes with their attacks on Israel and the fleet. Attacks by US assets continue on a daily basis, chewing up Houthi military assets and destroying governing infrastructure.
The big item to note is the renewed warning to Iran not to supply the Houthis with further military arms and munitions. Current US actions have significantly cut these resources off via destruction of port facilities and airfields. Iran faces having to smuggle war materials across the anti-Houthi eastern areas of Yemen.
See countdown to Iran below.
Iran –
Iranian Supreme Leader: The aggression against the Yemeni people and the targeting of defenseless civilians is a crime that must be confronted and stopped immediately.
***
Trump’s letter to Iran included a ‘2-month deadline’ to reach a new Nuclear Deal, after which the prospects of US or Israeli military action against Iran would ‘dramatically increase’ – Axios
***
A U.S. Navy MQ-4C “Triton” Surveillance Drone is currently patrolling the Persian Gulf, less than 20 miles off the coast of Iran’s outlying islands in the Hormozgan Province.
NOTE - Earlier this week this system was pulled back after an attempted intercept by Iranian jets.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
The countdown clock to a military solution to Iran’s nuclear program has been started. Analysis strongly suggests that should a strike occur, it will be joint with Israel - resulting in a very massive attack on not only Iran’s nuclear program, but many other parts of its military-industrial complex.
Key issue to watch for is clear deployment of military assets to the region, including air craft carriers.
Iran is trying to put up a brave face to the warning, but it has few options.
1 Maintain its present course and refuse conditions set forth by Trump.
2 Try to launch another preemptive missile attack
3 Conduct some other act such as trying to close off the Straits of Hormuz.
A lot of this depends on the Iranian perception of whether or not Trump will follow through with his threat. The no-nonsense response to the houthis attacking shipping the Red Sea region should serve as a wake-up call if they have any doubt.
Options 2 and 3 could involve attacks on US forces stationed in the region. While they could hit before the US has built up forces in the region, potentially causing hundreds of US casualties, the US has strategic capabilities to strike back hard and with Israeli support. For example, you could see just about every available US strategic bomber enroute to Iran within hours.
One last thing — the US military option could engage much sooner as well. The element of surprise my friend.
A lot of time and speculation ahead of us.
Syria -
Putin has sent a message to Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa supporting efforts to stabilise the situation in the country and saying Russia is ready to engage in “practical cooperation”
OBSERVATION - Russia continues to brownnose to the new Syrian leadership in order to maintain its naval and air base in the country.
Turkey –
A full curfew has been imposed in various areas across the country, after millions of people took part in demonstrations against Erdogan. The internet has been shut down across the country by the regime, and Erdogan is said to be hiding in an unknown location. There are rumors that Turkish military forces have been ordered to evacuate their outposts in “Syria” areas and return to Turkey, to prepare for the uprising.
Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Trabzon and many other cities: Crowds of people are protesting in Turkey tonight against Erdogan and his government and the decision to arrest Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
Turkish protesters call on Erdogan to vacate the presidential palace quickly. “We are on our way!” according to what is written on the signs….
OBSERVATION - The intensity of these protests threaten Erdogan continued reign. Things could breakout into a limited civil war should there be a crackdown - the army’s loyalty is uncertain in many areas. Meanwhile, Turkey’s stock market is crashing as a result.