Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Two U.S. B-52 bombers, escorted by F-15s and allied fighters, carried out a high-stakes mission across nine nations, dropping live munitions and showcasing American force projection. CENTCOM warns: the U.S. is ready to respond to any threat in the region.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Kash Patel advances through procedural hurdle in the Senate just now.
Next up, cloture. Then, FINAL vote Thursday
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Russian and American officials met in Saudi Arabia for bilateral talks about the war in Ukraine on February 18, but Russia continues to display no indications that it is prepared to make any meaningful concessions on Ukraine as assessed by Western intelligence and US officials
***
NBC reported on February 18 that four Western intelligence officials and two US congressional officials stated that intelligence from the US and unspecified close American allies shows that Russian President Vladimir Putin still wants to control all of Ukraine and that his goals “remain maximalist.”
One congressional official stated that there is “zero” intelligence showing that Putin is interested in a “real peace deal right now.” Intelligence officials stated that Putin has no plans to withdraw troops from Ukraine or to pull any personnel or equipment from western Russia.
The six officials stated that Putin may agree to a ceasefire and peace deal in order to give the Russian military time to rest and reconstitute, and there is an idea among Western officials that Putin may “go through the motions” of negotiations in order to see what concessions he can get and to reintegrate Russia back into the global community.
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1892040830099071219?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the teens - 20 range. Mostly fair with some snow showers.
Zelensky accuses Trump of living in a “disinformation space,” a day after the US president falsely accused Ukraine of starting the war with Russia
Zelenskyy: - Türkiye has played crucial role in terms of territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine; - I certainly believe that any negotiations to put end to this war would yield positive results; - Peace talks should be conducted with involvement of Türkiye, USA, and UK; - Türkiye is and should be one of those countries involved, and I am grateful for Türkiye’s constructive role
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Shahed attacks have become larger and larger. Overnight, Ukraine’s Air Force repelled another drone attack. Out of 167 launched, 106 were shot down and another 56 drones/simulators were suppressed by electronic warfare. Mainly the Odesa region suffered from the attacks.
Russian losses per 19/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1300 men
+19 tanks
+23 AFVs
+72 artillery systems
+3 MLRS
+4 (!) AD systems
+146 service vehicles
Ukrainian UAV were active overnight, hitting the Syzran oil refinery overnight, confirmed by locals and officials. The refinery, with a capacity of 8.9M tons/year, was previously targeted in March 2024. After the strike, operations were halted, with the AVT-6 unit damaged.
Multiple major fires could be seen rising from the complex, one of Russia’s largest refineries, after the strike.
Summary —
Politics dominate the war as it continues to appear that Trump has essentially cut Ukraine and EU out of the initial talks. Zelenskyy scrambling to gain allies to support his legitimacy as president.
Russia continues to throw large numbers of Shahed drones at Ukraine, with very little success at reaching targets - even with this saturation technique.
Russian continues to fight at a lower tempo than last month.
Europe / NATO General –
The EU has just agreed a new sanctions package on Russia. The 16th since the full scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago. Formally adopted by EU foreign ministers on Monday
France to convene second urgent meeting on Ukraine with other Europeans, Canada. Countries invited are Norway, Canada, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, the Czech Republic, Greece, Finland, Romania, Sweden and Belgium, per Reuters
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IAF strikes targets in Syria and Lebanon.
- Phase 2 hostage negotiations continue to move forward on shaky ground.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel has laid out strict conditions for the second phase of the hostage deal: Gaza must be completely demilitarized, Hamas and all other terror groups must be removed, and Israel will not support any plan that hands control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority.
Hamas, unsurprisingly, refuses to give up control. Meanwhile, IDF forces are massing near Gaza, with military equipment flowing into the area in preparation for a potential full-scale re-entry. Senior officials say if talks fail, it won’t take long before the IDF is back inside.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lebanese media report an Israeli drone strike targeted a vehicle in the outskirts of Ayta ash Shab in southern Lebanon. This would be the first Israeli airstrike in Lebanon since yesterday’s nearly complete withdrawal of Israeli forces
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli aircraft launched raids on military targets in the Sa’sa’ area in southern Syria, while artillery shelled residential areas in Daraa, causing damage to infrastructure.
Israeli army: We destroyed weapons belonging to the former Syrian regime in southern Syria
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemns Israel’s raids on UNRWA-operated schools in occupied East Jerusalem, calling them a violation of international law, says UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Gaza and Lebanon peace continue on increasingly shaky ground. At this stage, “peace” may hold for a little longer. Both Netanyahu and Trump seem to hint that things may break bad for Hamas in the near future.
Turkey –
Türkiye’s President Erdogan - We reaffirm our support for territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine; - We’re ready to provide any support to end this war in a peaceful way; - This war, which has cost many lives, must end; - We’re ready to do our part for maritime security in the Black Sea
- We’ve always advocated for establishment of peace negotiated between Russia and Ukraine; -Thanks to our diplomatic correspondences between the parties, we realised the Black Sea Grain Corridor Deal; - In last the years, we’ve met with the representatives of Russia and Ukraine at various levels; - Mr. Trump also stated war should end through dialogue; - As for the likely peace talks to be held by US, Russia and Ukraine, I believe that Türkiye will be very suitable host for such talks
OBSERVATION - Turkey continues to position itself as not only a regional power house but an international leader as well.
Mexico -
Reports that CIA airborne assets are collecting intel on Mexican cartels
What? What? What nations - what regions? What 'munitions'?
Thanks Godzilla
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Scattered anti-Trump, anti-Israel protests reportedly planned for various cities across the nation as we approach the weekend. No evidence of violence detected, though local vandalism and violence can occur depending on Antifa participation levels.
As always, stay tuned to your local news and avoid protest areas if possible.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
U.S. State Department under President Trump has officially designated the following as Foreign Terrorist Organizations:
- Tren de Aragua
- MS-13
- Sinaloa Cartel
- Jalisco New Generation Cartel
- United Cartels
- Northeast Cartel
- Gulf Cartel
- Michoacán Family
OBSERVATION - Room for a few other cartels. With this designation, just how soon might things become kinetic along the southern border?
Currently, Mexico completely refuses to allow US forces/agents from operating in Mexico.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
U.S. single-family homebuilding fell sharply in January amid disruptions from snowstorms and freezing temperatures, with a rebound likely to be limited by higher costs from tariffs on imports and elevated mortgage rates.
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/single-family-housing-real/2025/02/19/id/1199654/
OBSERVATION - Said it many time, the housing market has always been looked at as one of the key sectors to pull the nation out of an economic waste land. That isn’t happening yet.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
For the second time this week, 2 U.S. Air Force B-52H Long-Range Strategic Bombers launched from RAF Fairford, as well as at least 4 KC-135R Aerial-Refueling Tankers launched from RAF Mildenhall, are currently heading South across Europe towards the Mediterranean, likely on another Bomber Task Force Mission as a “Show of Force” in the Middle East.
POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
Democrats are running out of ways to counter the Trump juggernaut. Lawfare may have hit the high-water mark (see below) and democrats in congress are at unbelievable low favorably levels while republicans are at their highest. The effort to thwart Patel’s approval to the FBI is set to fail today, meaning that the key, controversial appointments are in the bag for Trump.
What is the democrat way forward? The biggest is the March 15th budget funding deadline. Schumer (and too many RINOS) want desperately to have another CR to continue the spendathon of previous years - a back door way to restore their kick backs that have hit the chopping block of DOGE. The momentum of DOGE in exposing the vast amount of fraud, waste and abuse may give the congressional republicans back bone enough to pass a far cleaner bill. The ball is really in Schumer’s court where he could force a filibuster and numerous gyrations to try to force democrat grift into the bill. Schumer and other democrats are toying with trying to force a govt shut down that they can blame on republicans. That maneuver might have worked for them in the past, however the political dynamics have seriously flipped on them. Again, lead by DOGE, many more americans are awake to the gluttonous spending lead by democrats and may see an increased WELCOME to a shut down. Democrats could see a further erosion of its limited favorability rating to boot.
Much of the hope of the left is growing around outside leftist/communist organization attempting to gain support for more lawsuits, job walkouts and policy sabotage. This effort is even looking down the road to more aggressive and violent protesting once winter melts away this spring and summer. Again, the political dynamic has shifted and this action may well back fire on them.
The danger levels are rising as the democrats manage to try to pull a more cohesive defensive operation together - in this case lead by the radical left/progressives - who are willing to go way out to confront Trump.
***
Kash Patel FINAL vote Thursday
Here’s the Thursday plan
11am ET - final procedural (cloture) vote
1:45pm ET - CONFIRM
***
68% of Americans disapprove of the job Democrats are doing in Congress, only 22% approve - Quinnipiac poll
Congressional Republican approval, meanwhile, sits at 40% approve to 52% disapprove.
OBSERVATION - No wonder James Carville is smashing his bald head against the wall. These are hideous numbers for the democrats - especially from the left leaning Quinnipiac pollsters.
***
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem directed the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to use polygraph examinations to crack down on unauthorized contact with media and nonprofits. Noem said DHS leaks have negatively impacted border and interior immigration enforcement.
***
(FO) Washington D.C. Federal Judge Christopher Cooper questioned the authority of courts to force the Trump administration to pause mass firings at federal agencies, during a hearing yesterday in a lawsuit brought by federal employee unions.
The federal employee unions said they turned to the court due to the Merit Systems Protection Board’s and Federal Labor Relations Authority’s lack of power to quickly stop government-wide firings.
Federal Judge Tanya Chutkan denied a request from 14 Democrat state Attorneys General to block the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) from accessing government systems and firing employees.
OBSERVATION - As FO notes, these are key breaks in the democrat lawfare attempts - especially rabid anti-Trumper Chutkan.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
Europe continues to be in a frenzy over recent comments by Trump et al regarding Ukraine.
Illegal Immigration –
President Donald Trump has ordered his agencies to scrub their regulations and spending programs to ensure illegal migrants are not getting taxpayers’ funds via hidden channels.
Trump signed the Executive Order titled “Preserving Federal Benefits for American Citizens” late on Wednesday.
The policy could save tens of billions of dollars per year. But the full economic impact will not be known for many months because Trump’s deputies must find the aid programs, change policies to stop some funding. fend off lawsuits, and then gradually rewrite regulations to stop more funding.
Democrats will furiously protest Trump’s aid cutoff because the cash flows through their vast and vital farm teams of supporters at government agencies and non-profits.
OBSERVATION - That is the bigger bottom line - cutting off the democrat cash flow.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the teens - 20 range, warming to the 30s by the end of next week. Mostly fair with some snow showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Last night, Russia launched another massive missile & drone attack on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, damaging production facilities, the Ministry of Energy confirms.
Overnight - 158/161 Shahed drones (80 shot down, 78 surpassed by electronic warfare.
In addition, Russia launched 14 Kh-101/55CM, Kalibr and Iskander-K cruise missiles and Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles. The results of these attacks are not made public. However independent reports indicate natural gas facilities and infrastructure were targeted.
Russian losses per 20/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1190 men
+14 tanks
+14 AFVs
+63 (!) artillery systems
+3 MLRS
+6 (!) AD systems
+136 service vehicles
Summary —
Ground war continues to slow down for Russia as reported attacks against Ukraine are also down - as reported by Ukraine. Lowered personnel losses, but sustained high losses in equipment plague Russia.
Russia included more modern missiles in their attack mix and apparently had some success - noting the lack of Ukraine details and apparently none being shot down. However, 14 missiles is a very low number compared to past usage, leaving some to wonder if there are other reasons for the lack of use over the past couple months.
Much focus continues on the geopolitics of the Trump initiative.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Bodies of 4 murdered Israeli hostages, including 2 children, released by Hamas.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Coffins apparently containing the bodies of four slain Israeli hostages are handed over by Hamas to the Red Cross at a stage set up by the terror group in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis, in front of a large crowd of Palestinians. The Red Cross has delivered the bodies to Israeli army and they are back in Israel. Two of the bodies were that of small children, another their mom.
Following Hamxs’ grotesque handover “ceremony,” Israel lodged a protest with mediators and the Red Cross, stating the event was “contrary to understandings,” reports @ynetalerts.
The IDF says the four coffins transferred to them underwent a screening to ensure they were not booby-trapped.
The IDF also broke the locks on the coffins to avoid any delays at the Abu Kabir forensic institute, where the bodies are being brought for identification. Keys supplied by Hamas didn’t fit the locks.
Hamas will release six living Israeli hostages this Saturday, according to statements by Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya and Israeli officials on Tuesday.
Out of the original 33 hostages slated for release during the first phase of the ceasefire, 14 remain in captivity, of whom eight are believed to be dead.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Gaza Strip: Several suspects crossed the perimeter in violation of the ceasefire agreement. Israeli army forces fired in response, and according to reports, one of the suspects was killed and several were injured
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Israeli security forces raid numerous locations across the area arresting terror leaders.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Argentine President Milei proclaimed a national day of mourning for the deceased Bibas Israeli hostages, released today from Hamas captivity. They held Argentinian citizenship as well as Israeli.
Jordanian King, during his reception of a delegation from the US House of Representatives, reiterates his country’s rejection of any attempts to displace Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The anger in Israel towards the brutal murder and despicable display of handing over the bodies is growing to volcanic proportions. Hamas fails to realize that they will not be facing a chained Israeli military this time around. Trump is willing to bring ‘hell’ against them. In the case of this release, the Bibas were captured by Gazan “civilians” and held by these ‘civilians’.
Efforts seem to be to accelerate the Phase 1 hostage releases, with some claiming that it will accelerate Phase 2 talks and agreement. In the face of how Hamas has treated the hostages, and their demands on Israel, I can’t for the life of me see Israel compromising further. They are mustering the forces on the Gazan border and will be able to quickly retake territory they’ve just pulled back from as well as having a large force to penetrate into the ‘no go’ zones biden laid out last year.
Israel could unleash hell within the next few weeks, once the timeline for Phase 1 is past and evidence of no movement on Phase 2. Will it Klingon levels of vengeance?
Lebanon appears to remain at a status quo. Hezbollah continues to utter threats, but it is all talk at the moment. Israel is far more focused on Gaza, particularly with the US involved in the monitoring of the Lebanese response to the current ceasefire.
Iran –
(FO) Iranian state media says the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Ground Force is running its “largest operation drill” in southwestern Iran near the Iran-Iraq border. The drills cover maneuver warfare, electronic warfare, large-scale armored warfare, missile, drone, and artillery attacks.
Rumint. Iran planning to use this exercise to strike the Kurdistan region in Iraq.
Syria -
The Syrian Preparatory Committee does not plan to include the Kurdish-majority Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) or its political wing, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), in the National Dialogue Conference.
OBSERVATION - Turkey is leaning on Syria to keep them out. Any established legitimacy would place Turkey at odds with its installed govt in Syria.