Happy New Year. Welcome to Threat Matrix 2025
Terrorism - Moderate THREAT as of Jan 1, 2025
At least 10 people are dead and dozens injured after a driver plowed a car into a crowd of New Year’s revelers on Bourbon Street in New Orleans, according to authorities.
The driver reportedly exited the vehicle and fired a weapon after hitting the crowd. A large police presence and EMS were reported at the scene. Roughly 30 people have been transported to five hospitals across the city after suffering injuries from the attack.
New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell declared the incident a “terrorist attack” in a Wednesday morning briefing, but FBI agents appeared to contradict her soon afterward, saying that has not been confirmed.
Latest report is that the driver/shooter is dead killed in a shoot out with police
Suspicious objects found at the crime scene reportedly are explosive devices.
UPDATE - a flag was attached other trailer hitch of the truck used in the attack. Images of the flag are indicating it to be one associated with ISIS and AQ.
OBSERVATION - Still developing. Must watch how the describe the terrorist’s race/religion. Islamist have been very active over years using vehicle attacks for terror.
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The FBI says it has discovered more than 150 bombs during a raid on a farm in Virginia – thought to be the largest such cache seized by the law-enforcement agency in its history.
Brad Spafford was arrested on 17 December in Isle of Wight County, 180 miles (290km) south of Washington DC, after a tip-off that he was stockpiling weapons and homemade ammunition on the property he shares with his wife and two young children.
Investigators say some of the devices were found in a bedroom in an unsecured backpack labelled “#nolivesmatter” - an apparent reference to a far-right, anti-government movement.
Nolivesmatter is a movement that promotes extremist ideology, targeted attacks, mass killings, and criminal activity, and has encouraged members to engage in self-harm and animal abuse, according to the New Jersey Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp83rp5z0ypo
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
Level maintained due to potential debt ceiling impacts later this month
Credit card lenders wrote off $46 billion in seriously delinquent loans during the first nine months of 2024—a staggering 50% increase from the same period in 2023, according to BankRegData. This marks the highest level of defaults in 14 years. Write-offs, a key indicator of financial distress, signal that lenders are increasingly deeming many loans as unrecoverable.
Mark Zandi, head of Moody’s Analytics, emphasized the disparity in financial stability: “High-income households are fine, but the bottom third of US consumers are tapped out. Their savings rate right now is zero.”
Credit card balances have soared in recent years, with a combined increase of $270 billion in 2022 and 2023, pushing total balances above $1 trillion for the first time in mid-2023. Meanwhile, elevated interest rates have exacerbated the financial strain. Over the past year, Americans paid a record $170 billion in credit card interest, further depleting the savings that many accumulated during the pandemic.
https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=7685#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - Americans have used credit to bridge the gap between wages and higher costs. With the Fed unlikely to drop rates more than a quarter point in 2025, relief is not expected and things will become worse.
***
Homeless rates in the United States reached record numbers in 2024, due in part to immigrants who entered the country illegally and then had trouble finding housing in the nation’s sanctuary cities, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
HUD data shows that more than 770,000 people were homeless in 2024, marking an 18% climb, and indicates that the percentage of Hispanics affected is exponentially higher because of the increased immigrant population in New York, Denver, Chicago, and other sanctuary cities, The Hill reported Tuesday.
The climb was the largest year-over-year increase since the agency started tracking homelessness in 2007.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/hud-homeless-immigration/2024/12/31/id/1193445/
OBSERVATION - The stress of illegals on the economy in general and housing specifically is weighing down potential economic growth and stability. Most, if not all, of these illegals are getting tens of thousands of dollars worth of aid per month - food, shelter, spending money, etc. Citizens - nothing.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Cross reference this with CW2
Political observers expect to see the resumption of the fight to keep Trump out of the WH to become hot again next week. This on two fronts. First from the die hard liberals who are trying to craft procedural defenses and attacks.
Second could result from ‘friendly fire’. Current Speaker Johnson is under a lot of fire with his bumbling handling of the CR last month. Many republicans threatening to pull any support and toss the House into a series of votes for a new speaker. This would permit even greater democrat fun and games and even become the deciding vote for a new speaker. Meanwhile, the J6 deadline to certify the election looms big and ominous.
PJM’s Paula Bolyard explained Monday: “If there’s no House Speaker, there may not be a vote. If there is no certification, Trump cannot be inaugurated as president. Nor can JD Vance be sworn in without that crucial ceremonial vote. With no speaker in the House, the presidency could fall to Chuck Grassley until the House, with a slim Republican majority, can get things sorted out.”
Chuck Grassley would become president because, as the President Pro Tempore of the Senate, he is next in the line of succession.
Thus we could be facing a constitutional crisis even before Trump enters office.
OBSERVATION - Short term solution is to keep Johnson on for at least the next few months - thru getting the debt ceiling issue dealt with (with a lot of hand holding). Vote certification and debt ceiling issues could blow up in the republican faces. The divided republicans can’t afford to let these two balls drop.
China –
In his New Year’s address, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized resilience and confidence while cautioning against global uncertainties. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has signaled a shift in trade policies, The Hill reported.
Jinping highlighted the strength of China’s economy and the nation’s ability to overcome challenges in his speech, delivered as Trump prepares for his inauguration on Jan. 20.
Xi underscored China’s evolving pressures, including external uncertainties and the need for economic transformation.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/economy-china-taiwan/2024/12/31/id/1193491/
OBSERVATION - Xi is sitting on a pressure cooker as far as his economy goes. Post wuhan, the manufacturing giant has sputtered and stalled out in a large way. Rich Chinese are seeing ways to get their wealth out of country in ever increasing ways. Commoners stuck with the morass of the Evergreen property meltdown of the past few years. Contra to the economic woes, Xi is cranking up the military spending and developments - putting further strain on existing conditions.
The nation is big enough to force things for a while, but Xi will be increasingly forced to keep the economy from spinning out of control in 2025.
***
The images, sourced from Maxar Technologies, reveal the rapid establishment of new structures following the disengagement of Chinese and Indian troops in the region.
The satellite analysis indicates the presence of three new outposts in the region. These positions are strategically located to restrict Indian patrol routes in three directions, effectively reducing the extent of patrol areas claimed by Indian forces.
The satellite imagery underscores China’s swift construction efforts in the aftermath of the troop disengagement. Observers note that the development aligns with Beijing’s strategy to reinforce its presence along disputed border areas while adhering to negotiated terms.
https://defence-blog.com/satellite-images-show-rapid-chinese-build-up-in-disputed-border-area/
North/South Korea –
NK revealed photos of a new missile frigate, hosting vertical launch missile bays.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - approaching the end of the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Economic Impact –
Transit of Russian gas to the EU via Ukraine has been suspended since 8:00 Moscow time on January 1, Gazprom reported. The company stated that it has no technical and legal capacity to continue export via Ukraine
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20 -30s warming into the 40s towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
On new years evening and night, Russia struck Ukraine with Shahed drones. Out of 111 launched, 63 were shot down by regular air defense and another 46 were suppressed by electronic warfare. Two more flew back to Russia and Belarus.
Russian losses per 01/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1250 men
+4 tanks
+13 AFVs
+4 artillery systems
Ukrainian defenders have largely stalled Russian advances near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, but Russian forces continue to make gradual, grinding advances in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka directions.
Kursk Front -
In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 13 Russian army assaults, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports
Summary —
Repeating an ISW summary -
Russian forces gained 4,168 sq km (1,600 sq mi), largely comprised of fields and small settlements in Ukraine & Kursk Oblast, at a reported cost of over 420K casualties in 2024. Russian forces have thus suffered ~102 casualties per sq km of Ukrainian territory seized.
Russian advances have slowed in December 2024, however.
The Russian military command likely tolerated record levels of personnel casualties from September through November 2024 to facilitate larger territorial gains.
It remains unclear if the Russian military command will be willing to sustain such casualties if Russian forces’ rate of advance continues to decline as Russian forces continue to advance on more heavily defended settlements such as Pokrovsk.
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1874262504320258065?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Middle East / N. Africa General -
LIBYA -
Russia is deploying its forces for operations in Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean to the Al-Khadim base in Libya
Since mid-December, following the fall of the Assad regime on 8 December, Moscow’s Antonov AN-124 and Ilyushin IL-76 aircraft have been flying daily from Khmeimim to al-Khadim in eastern Libya, near Haftar-held Benghazi.
The Russians have supplied mercenaries and weapons to General Khalifa Haftar’s forces in al-Khadim for years. Earlier this year, All Eyes on Wagner reported that Russian personnel are now being accommodated in a secure compound near the base.
OBSERVATION - Increase in Russian presence in Egypt may destabilize the status quo between opposing factions - one supported by Russia and the other by Turkey.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hostage issue is stalled
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Referring to the hostages held by Hamas, on New Year’s Eve Trump remarked that, “they better let the hostages come back soon”.
Hostage talks have reportedly stalled and observers believe it is highly unlikely that they will be resolved before Trump takes office.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Air force has been carrying out successive airstrikes since dawn today, targeting Beit Lahia and Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip
***
Two rockets were fired at Israeli territory from the Gaza Strip, the military said shortly after midnight. One was intercepted, the other allowed to crash into an open field.
***
The Israel Defense Force (IDF) announced Tuesday it launched a drone strike that killed a top Hamas commander who was behind last year’s Oct. 7 attack on the Kibbutz Nir Oz.
The IDF identified Hamas commander Abd al-Hadi Sabah as the perpetrator behind the kibbutz attack, which resulted in the deaths or capture of nearly half of the community’s 400 residents, per Fox News. The kibbutz is located in southern Israel, near the Gaza border.
Sabah was discovered hiding in a shelter in a designated humanitarian area of Khan Yunis in southern Gaza, the IDF said.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israel Air Force struck a weapons storage facility, where IDF soldiers identified Hezbollah terrorists moving weapons into a nearby truck in Bani Haiyyan in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, the IDF announced Wednesday morning.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
I see no significant changes to the current situation in the near term. Operations to destroy Hamas in Gaza will continue to ebb and flow. It does appear that some elements of Hamas are basically mounting a last stand against Israel - congregating in so called ‘safe’ areas to mount military operations from, only to be smashed by Israeli forces.
The ceasefire in Lebanon won’t last much past Trumps inauguration and Hezbollah is already issuing threats. No doubt they have been working hard to reconstitute some form of order and resupply but it will not be enough to mount a serious threat to Israel, only to try to rebuild defensive capabilities because Israel is sure to resume offensive operations in S Lebanon.
Now more than half way thru the ceasefire and the Lebanese army has been essentially AWOL and not disarming and removing Hezbollah as agreed to.
I expect more Israeli air strikes on the Houthi’s, especially now that they’ve flushed their missile stockpiles into the open and stored in civilian areas. Honey badgers don’t care, especially if the Houthi’s have now militarized these area with the storage of these weapons.
Iran –
Speculation has popped up that a 4.6 earthquake that occurred in Iran in October was an underground detonation of a nuclear device. The problem is the quake was centered 10 Km below the ground (nearly 6 miles). Engineering effort to go that deep is nearly impossible. The quake is in a seismically active region that saw another quake of the mag 4.6 range later in November - again at a depth of 10 KM.
Highly doubtful it was a test.
Syria -
Fierce clashes in the eastern countryside of Manbij between the SDF and the Turkish led SNA. Turkish airforce is providing close air support for the SNA Airstrike north of Maskanah
Syria is receiving various kinds of aid from Ukraine and other gulf states.
Misc of Note –
Gone are the drones, enter stage right the “fog” (cue ominous music) .
The latest round of hysteria orbiting social media are reports of a strange ‘fog’ has has properties different (subjectively based) than normal fog. This fog has been reported globally and more recently in the US. Some claim strange odors associated with it and other unexplainable things seemingly associated with it.
IMHO people are very jumpy lately and this ‘fog’ is a continuation of that baseline fear that has developed over the past few years. Many of the complaints are just atmospheric conditions associated with fogs - cool, relatively stable and most pockets of air that also trap odors from other sources. Anyway, will have to keep watching to see how this pans out.
Homan sending illegals home is an investment in our economy.
Farmers who want cheap labor to pick the crops can apply for 'temporary workers'. Any workers who don't go 'home' after the crops are picked become the financial responsibility of the farmers. Farmers will no longer be allowed to 'hire illegals for the crops' then dump these workers on the American welfare system - - subsidized housing and food stamps for the other 8 months they're not picking.
Temporary labor MEANS temporary - and definitely not with 'citizenship thrown in as an extra' incentive (farmers can also pay a premium tax to the IRS covering the area 'between' wages they pay foreigners and what they would pay Americans for the same work. (this should also apply to Tech workers from places like India).
Boy the new year started to get all balled up already.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 1, 2025
Related in many ways to the New Orleans terror attack - Just hours after the events in New Orleans, hundreds of pro-Hamas protesters marched in Manhattan today, chanting “globalize the intifada!”
OBSERVATION - The pro-Hamas movement continues and may try to expand its influence as things change in Hamas / Israel fight. The call to intifada clearly condones acts like the terror attack in New Orleans.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 2, 2025
Due to yesterday’s terror attacks.
The events of yesterday are just starting to come into place following a lot of speculation and confusion. Here’s what I’ve been able to summarize.
First - The New Orleans terror attack.
Perp - The perpetrator of the New Orleans truck attack, Shamsud Din Jabbar, was born and raised in Texas and was in the U.S. Army Reserve from 2015 to 2020. Additionally, according to Karol Markowicz of the NY Post and Fox News, he had a stolen Glock and a .308 rifle with him. Democrat donor
Motivation - Jihadic attack. ISIS black flag mounted on rear bumper, made statements prior to attack. Officials say Jabbar made a series of recordings before the attack which are being reviewed by investigators. If following typical ISIS and jihadi practice, these recordings would be his testimony for the attacks.
Accomplices - Local police and FBI are stating that Jabbar did not act alone and had assistance in the planning and execution of the attack.
The Houston mosque, potentially linked to the New Orleans terrorist, has urged members to avoid cooperating with the FBI without first consulting CAIR, an organization known for its controversial connections.
“It’s crucial that we stay united at this time.”
The New Orleans FBI field office said multiple search warrants are being executed in Louisiana and other states, including a location in Houston, TX connected to Jabbar.
The Weapons - Truck was rented on Turo. Pipe bombs and weapons were found in the vehicle used in the attack. The bombs were hidden in coolers and were set to be activated remotely using a matching remote control also found in the vehicle. Stolen Glock and .308(?)
Results - ABC reporting the death toll has increased to 15.
Related - Partially confirmed. At 6 am in New Orleans officers found an explosive device near the Cathedral in the French Quarter. They discovered two devices and safety detonated both.
Dozens were evacuated after a fire erupted at New Orleans Airbnb rented by Jabbar. Louisiana Attorney General Liz Murrill said the IEDs were manufactured at the Airbnb which she said was rented out for the purpose of building the devices.
NOTE - It has not been uncommon for terrorists to booby-trap their homes or places resided in to hopefully kill more and destroy any evidence.
FBI Houston has released a statement, asking residents to avoid the area near Hugh Road and Crescent Peak Drive in Northern Houston, while Federal Agents and Deputies with the Harris County Sheriff’s Office search a site possibly linked to the ISIS-affiliated terrorist attack earlier today in New Orleans.
A man apparently taken into custody in in Houston, Texas in connection to the terrorist attack.
SECOND - Las Vegas Attack
A Tesla Cybertruck blew up at Trump Tower in Las Vegas. Police confirm the driver has been killed, seven were injured. The truck exploded in front of the main doors to the Tower. The strength and construction of the Cybertruck directed the force of the explosion upward, potentially saving lives and limiting damage. The Cybertruck was packed with “fireworks-style mortars”, propane tanks and camping fuel.
Law enforcement sources have told CBS News, the BBC’s US news partner, that the Tesla Cybertruck was rented to Matthew Alan Livelsberger, an active duty US Army service member.
Livelsberger had been serving in Germany but was on leave in Colorado at the time of the incident, CBS reported. The profile indicates Livelsberger was still actively employed by the U.S. Army as a Remote and Autonomous Systems Manager, a role he reportedly held for three months leading up to the attack.
Two relatives of Livelsberger confirmed to CBS he had rented the Cybertruck but were unaware of him having any involvement in the incident. He used the same Turo app for the rental as the New Orleans terrorist
One relative said Livelsberger’s wife had not heard from him in several days.
Livelsberger is a U.S. Army veteran. Livelsberger’s LinkedIn is no longer online but there are ghost remnants of his background:
• Special forces intelligence sergeant
• Defense analysis and strategic studies degree from Norwich University
Matthew Livelsberger’s wife is a Democrat supporter. He is reportedly a Ukraine supporter and a Trump hater.
OBSERVATIONS - Taking a deep breath . . . . .
Jabbar clearly appears to be a home grown radicalized jihadist and likely is part of an ISIS affiliated cell/group in the Houston area. The construction of IEDs and probably communications that the FBI may have gotten their hands on point to accomplices. This is reinforced by is his mosque telling its members to go to ground and contact the terrorism linked CAIR if approached. Big red flags that this is mosque is lead by radical jihadi’s.
The mode of attack - driving vehicle into crowds - has become a very common attack mechanism. News sources are reporting that the city did not engage its vehicle barrier system around the site due to ‘maintenance’, leaving the venue wide open for this kind of attack.
Now, the Vegas bomber. More questions - why would an active duty SF conduct such an attack? For starters, it is apparently premeditated but put together quickly. He had just returned for Germany on leave, so had little time to construct a better explosive device.
His motive seems more political than jihadic. The symbolism of a Cybertruck being blown up in front of a Trump Tower is unmistakeable (Musk and Trump). Still don’t know the deeper motivation, what drove him over the edge. His wife is a documented democrat supporter, therefore it is likely he has the very same leanings. It is also known that the radical liberal influences have penetrated into the military, but generally SF forces are more ideologically based conservatives and not liberals willing to self destruct.
MORE OBSERVATIONS -
Eyebrows being raised on two coincidences. The first being that both terrorists used the Turo app to rent their vehicles. This is a new method of rental I’m not familiar with and could be just that - coincidence.
The second is that reportedly both served on the same base (Ft Bragg - in the before years IIRC). There is no current evidence they made contact with each other - the base houses 60,000 so chance meeting is questionable. Nor is there evidence yet that they are there at the same time. However, there may be some element in the shadows on the base that they could have been drawn to.
My current assessment - pending any new information - is that these are two separate, independent attacks. The New Orleans attack is far more concerning at the moment given that it is appearing it was intended to be part of a bigger attack (bombs at the Catholic Church) and a hive of jihadi’s uncovered at a radicalized mosque.
The Las Vegas likely a lone wolf, leftist attack. More info still out there that can change this initial assessment.
Increased chances of copycat attacks or even the start of a chain of islamic radical attacks (organized). Attack opportunities in the near term include crowds gathered for football bowl games. Important to note - their MO is mass casualty events or targeted attacks on high profile figures/locations.
Leftist lone wolves may copycat as the Trump election certification and inauguration approach.
***
Security increased on many major cities over night.
Washington DC Metropolitan Police:
“While there is no known threat to the District of Columbia, out of an abundance of caution, MPD has heightened its security posture across the city in light of recent events. While we do not discuss specifics regarding operations, tactics, or staffing, the community will notice an increased police presence throughout the city”
NYC Mayor Adams - increased police presence around the city and at Trump Tower.
The Sugar Bowl was scheduled to be played tonight in New Orleans. However, after last night’s suspected terror attack on Bourbon Street officials are postponing the game between Georgia and Notre Dame until Thursday
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
Level maintained due to potential debt ceiling impacts later this month
(FO) The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and U.S. Maritime Alliance will resume contract negotiations for East and Gulf Coast ports on Tuesday, 7 January according to a person familiar with the negotiations. The current deal to suspend the ILA strike is set to expire on 15 January, only five days before President-elect Trump’s inauguration. The key disagreement between the ILA and U.S. Maritime Alliance is over port terminal automation, and the ILA will likely strike if a deal is not made to block automation.
OBSERVATION - The new game of chicken is on. The union is radically anti republican / anti Trump in its leadership. A strike will deal a major blow to the supply chain, even if short term. Trump could try to influence, but cannot directly act until in office.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Striking while the iron is hot - U.S. Senators are now urging the expedited confirmation of Trump’s national security team following the attacks in New Orleans.
Phillipines –
(FO) Philippine Fishermen found a foreign submersible drone in the center of the Philippine archipelago. The local police director says the drone is marked for a Chinese underwater navigation and communication system, has an antenna
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20 -30s warming into the 40s towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s Air Force reports a drone attack overnight. Out of 72 Shahed drones launched, 47 were shot down and another 24 were suppressed by electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 02/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1370 men
+4 tanks
+13 APVs
+20 artillery systems
Unconfirmed reports that Kapustin Yar, known for the launch site of Russia’s Oreshnik ballistic missile, is under Ukrainian drone attacks.
Summary —
Growing evidence that the Russian offensive in many parts of the front is stalling out as personnel and equipment losses continue to mount. Russia still throwing its usual 60-80 Shahed drones against Ukraine, with little to no success.
Current trends indicate that there will be not much change in the day to day fighting. Russian losses are still elevated yet failing to gain significant terrain.
Moldova/Transnistria -
As of today (yesterday), Russia’s colony of Transnistria no longer has gas.
“The centralized heating system in populated areas was turned off due to the cessation of gas supplies from Russia, the company “Tirasteploenergo” reports.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas complains that Israel is changing its demands on hostage release.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Former Israeli defense minister Yoav Galant announced his resignation from the Knesset. This will allow him to run in the next elections in an any political party he wants.
Israel threatened Hamas that is will commit a third division back into Gaza if they continue to hold onto hostages and not negotiate in good faith.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Israeli army says it killed Hussam Shahwan, the head of Hamas’ internal security service in southern Gaza.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
The Palestinian Authority has decided to temporarily freeze Al-Jazeera broadcasts and the activities of journalists working for the network in the West Bank and Gaza Strip
NOTE - Al Jazeera is noted to be a radical mouthpiece for the opponents of the PA and this shut down is due to the ongoing fight between the PA and these groups like Hamas remnants and PIJ, etc.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Focus is on hostages held by Hamas. Some analysts think they are calling Trump’s bluff and deliberately holding onto them to force a US response. This would result in a two-fisted assault by both the US and Israel. But then the jihadi mindset is to go out in a blaze of glory. Sadly, I suspect that they’ve already killed most if not all hostages by now.
Other Israeli fronts are stable. Hezbollah / S Lebanon see relative calm, no more actions in Syria, Houthi’s quiet for a day or two as well.
Eventual elections will soon take over the scene. The resignation of Galant gives him the opportunity to run for any position he wants to. Currently, Netanyahu is experiencing very high favorability ratings, suggesting that should elections occur - and nothing catastrophic take place - his party and affiliated could gain a much stronger control over parliament.
Syria -
International coalition warplanes targeted several airstrikes on sites where ISIS is active in the southern desert of Raqqa
Misc of Note –
I’m probably echoing the thoughts of many, but New Orleans in particular is sticking in my craw. The incompetent ‘agent’ who blabbed about it not being a terrorist attack - inspire of a prominent ISIS flag - takes it all.
Over the past four year, the govt via the DoJ and FBI have wasted billions going after mothers complaining at school board meetings, grandmothers and other peaceful individuals praying in front of abortion clinics, smearing good, honest America loving citizens - claiming they are the greatest terrorist threat - and then let REAL terrorists operation openly.
The depth of the overall rot in out govt is huge and has metastasized into a threat to the Nation. I don’t think 4 years of Trump will be enough to cauterize it and the potential level of fighting could breakout into the kinetic realm.
The consistency of depth and magnitude with other regional quakes reinforces this conclusion. If you have specific data (e.g., seismic waveforms, news reports) or want me to analyze related X posts or web content, I can dig deeper.
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my question below<
If it was a nuclear attack, not a test, which after seeing your analysis looks unlikely, how would it have even happened?
A nuclear attack, as opposed to a test, would involve the deliberate use of a nuclear weapon to cause destruction, typically targeting a specific area or population. Given the context of the 4.6 magnitude earthquake in Iran at a depth of 10 km, the likelihood of this being a nuclear attack is extremely low, as my prior analysis suggests. However, to address your question about how a nuclear attack could theoretically produce such an event, here's a breakdown of the mechanisms, challenges, and why it remains implausible:
How a Nuclear Attack Could Theoretically Cause a 4.6 Magnitude Event
Underground Nuclear Explosion:
A nuclear weapon detonated underground could generate seismic waves mimicking an earthquake. The magnitude of the seismic event depends on the weapon's yield. A 4.6 magnitude quake corresponds to an explosion energy of roughly 1–5 kilotons of TNT, comparable to a small tactical nuclear warhead.
The 10 km depth aligns with the upper range of depths for underground nuclear tests (historically 0.1–2 km), but delivering a warhead to such a depth for an attack is a significant hurdle.
Delivery Mechanisms:
Borehole or Tunnel Delivery: A nuclear device could theoretically be placed in a deep borehole or tunnel. However, drilling to 10 km is beyond current engineering capabilities for rapid, covert operations. The deepest boreholes (e.g., Kola Superdeep Borehole) took years to drill and were narrow, unsuitable for deploying a warhead. Missile Penetration: Some bunker-buster munitions can penetrate tens of meters underground, but none can reach 10 km. A nuclear-tipped missile could detonate at shallow depths, but the seismic signature would differ from a deep quake, and surface damage (cratering, radiation) would be evident.
Subterranean Drone or Device: A hypothetical advanced, covert delivery system (e.g., a tunneling drone) could place a device deep underground, but no such technology is known to exist, and the logistical challenges would be immense. Seismic and Environmental Effects:
A nuclear explosion at 10 km would produce a sharp seismic P-wave, distinct from the more complex waveforms of a natural quake. Global seismic networks (e.g., CTBTO, USGS) would likely detect this anomaly.
Radioactive isotopes (e.g., xenon-133) could vent through fissures, detectable by monitoring stations. No reports of such isotopes have been linked to this event.
Surface damage would be minimal at such depth, but the attack's strategic purpose would be unclear unless targeting a deeply buried facility (e.g., a military bunker), which Iran is known to have.
Challenges and Implausibility
Engineering Feasibility: Delivering a nuclear warhead to 10 km depth is practically impossible with current technology. Even shallow underground tests require extensive preparation, and an attack would need to be covert to avoid preemptive detection, multiplying the complexity.
Strategic Rationale:
A nuclear attack would aim to maximize destruction or send a clear geopolitical message. A 4.6 magnitude event at 10 km depth would cause negligible surface damage, making it an ineffective attack unless targeting a specific underground asset. However, no known Iranian facilities at such depths are publicly documented as critical targets.
Seismic Monitoring:
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) and other networks continuously monitor for nuclear explosions. A nuclear attack would trigger global alerts, especially in a geopolitically sensitive region like Iran. No such alerts were reported. Regional Context: Iran's seismic activity makes it a poor choice for disguising a nuclear attack as a natural quake. The recurrence of a similar 4.6 quake in November at the same depth strongly suggests tectonic activity, not a repeated attack.
Geopolitical Fallout: A nuclear attack would provoke severe international consequences, including retaliation and condemnation. No actor has claimed responsibility, and no evidence of heightened tensions (e.g., military mobilization) supports this scenario.
Most Likely Scenario:
The 4.6 magnitude earthquake was almost certainly a natural tectonic event, consistent with Iran's seismically active geology. A nuclear attack at 10 km depth is not only technologically infeasible but also strategically nonsensical, given the lack of detectable signatures (radiation, anomalous seismic waves) and the absence of geopolitical indicators. If you have additional details (e.g., specific claims from X posts, news reports, or seismic data) or want me to investigate further, let me know, and I can analyze relevant sources or content.