Threat Matrix 2025

Thanks for your concern. Feeling less stiff. Diagnosed with muscle sprains and strains.

Today seems to be very packed. Domestic terror has increased overnight while other chaos is brewing in DC.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 16, 2025

UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025

***
At this time truckloads of anti-scale fencing are being delivered to the White House in Washington, D.C. Such fencing is typically used during periods of civil unrest or heightened national security concerns. No official explanation has been provided for its sudden deployment.

OBSERVATION - With the govt shut down fast approaching, it would seem the WH is preparing its defenses against potential rioting by the left. Such rioting may be stimulated in part by threatened firings of govt employees

***
A Dallas ICE facility came under sniper fire from the roof an adjacent building. The shooter hit three detainees, killing two and seriously wounding the third. He killed himself as police closed in on him. No ICE agent was injured.

The shooter has been identified as Joshua Jahn. Jahn comes from a liberal bi-racial family in Fairview, Texas. His mother is critical of the gun laws in her state. His sister, Kioko Jahn, is a woke woman who was a supporter of Beto O’Rourke. He left behind a literal anti-ICE message on a rifle cartridges where he killed himself.

The attack occurred in the context of months of Democrat politicians, liberals and leftists encouraging violent direct action against ICE. Antifa and far-left extremists have been releasing names, photos and addresses of agents, urging comrades to kill them. In July, members of a North Texas Antifa cell allegedly carried out a shooting ambush on an ICE facility in Alvarado. One officer was shot in the neck, but narrowly survived. The nightly violent attacks on the ICE facility in Portland by Antifa remain ongoing.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1970936239894430053?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - There is a massive effort by the MSM to muddy up the clear indicators that instead of leftist violence, this is MAGA violence.

This is the third, recent incident of writing propaganda on the bullets. Luigi Mangione wrote messages on his rounds, in addition to Tyler Robinson. One could add the shooter’s writing on his magazines in the Minnesota Catholic school shooting too. In all these instances, leftist slogans were used. MSM has been trying to say this was influenced by extreme right wingers.

The purpose of sending a message is the whole point of terrorism. “Do what I want, or else!”

Feeding these mental malfeasants is the steady drum beat not only of the marxists on social media, but from national political leaders. House minority leader Hakim has been calling ICE “gestapo” and threatening to ‘unmask’ them and dox them.

Presidential hopeful Gavin Newsom, three days ago: “To ICE: Unmask. What are you afraid of?”
Last night Newsom went on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert Tuesday night and told the lingering handful of leftist ideologues who like their propaganda served up as stale and condescending faux-comedy that Trump was using ICE as his “private domestic army”

This is just a especially small selection of the anti Trump/anti- ICE being spread. Social media like Reddit sees leftist almost literally foaming at the mouth for more blood.

BOTTOM LINE - The left has let genie out of the bottle, there’s no putting it back. I fully expect even more politically based attacks, most focused on ICE / DHS facilities in both the near and far term. In the far term, these attacks will spread to republican congressional candidates.

Right now the trend is apparent ‘lone wolf’ attacks, with minimal if any group organization, just a demented leftist taking action on the vile rhetoric they’ve been feeding on. The only outlier has been the ambush earlier in TX of an ICE facility, with one officer hit in the neck and 12 antifa followers (and members of the local John Brown gun club) arrested. Expansion to more sophisticated attacks is the dangerous trend that could further develop.

RELATED - Trump says he will sign an executive order this week to dismantle domestic terrorism networks after the deadly shooting at an ICE office in Dallas. He blamed “radical left Democrats” for inciting violence

***
Suspected members of terrorist network Antifa and other far-left extremists were arrested after trying to besiege a federal building in Eugene, Ore. This was part of an anti-government direct action to target ICE. They are now facing federal charges.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1971000687929811194?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - This assault was advertised by Rose City Antifa as a call to arms. Those arrested face federal charges, not the local charges they are used to dealing with (basically a revolving door at the police station).

***
Andy Ngo just revealed that an Antifa website is calling for more attacks on ICE facilities. This news comes in the wake of a leftist firing on the ICE facility in Dallas this morning.
Here’s what he writes:

“An Antifa blog site is issuing a call for further attacks on @ICEgov facilities across the country.

The post also explains Antifa’s ideology: sociopathy, chaos, destruction and violence for the sake of “becoming ungovernable.” This is why Antifa’s focus changes from Occupy-related rioting to BLM to trantifa. Anything they can use to incite violence, they will exploit.

“Every fist that hurls a piece of concrete through a bank or an ICE agent’s car window has the potential to ignite a wildfire … For some of us, chaos and destruction are the only activities in which we experience life as liberated creativity.””

https://therightscoop.com/breaking-antifa-site-issues-call-for-more-attacks-on-ice-facilities/

OBSERVATION - The reported website is Anarchistnews and its actions reflect a growing call for violence across the political spectrum, with a lot of focus on ICE.

***
Marxists on social media call for more violence
“Create no-go zones for federal forces”

Crimethinc, one of the largest and most influential Antifa organizing sites, released a guide explaining how Antifa and their co-conspirators organize to target the U.S. government.

It explains that one should form “tight-knit” cells for fundraising, “intelligence gathering” and communications. They suggest committing violence to pressure agencies, politicians and institutions into cutting off ties with
@ICEgov
.
https://x.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1970840191179845965

OBSERVATION - Movement moving from organizing to direct actions (violence)

***
The John Brown Club at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C., is advertising for new members by using one of the phrases written on the Charlie Kirk assassin’s bullet casing and proclaiming that they celebrate the deaths of Nazis.

They are using the phrase written on the casing of one of the bullets found with Kirk’s killer - “Hey Facist Catch”.

https://notthebee.com/article/so-this-is-a-poster-at-georgetown-university-in-dc

OBSERVATION - The move / calls to open violence since Kirk’s murder has been astonishing. Those calls for violence were in the background prior, but now it seems the leftists have become more bold in their efforts to use violence over other political actions.

***
(FO) Forward Observer reports -

On a recent call, the co-executive directors of Indivisible, the country’s largest protest organizing network, said they had an hour-long meeting to discuss which color to select to represent their protest and resistance movement.

Asked about a color or “national symbol of unity to stand against authoritarianism or for pro-democracy,” co-executive director Leah Greenberg said, “We agree this is, like, a need and what we really want to do is try and figure out, like, what’s already starting to organically take off that we can collectively come in together on… This is something that we’re very much thinking about right now.”

Ezra Levin, her counterpart, added: “So, this group, once we have something [a color and symbol], we are going to be asking all of y’all to help be the first movers on this to make the thing a thing. Hopefully, we’ll be ready to come back here soon and try to push on something like that.”

Why It Matters: (FO analysis) Symbols are a critical part of a resistance or revolutionary movement. Historically, the “Color” in “Color Revolutions” signifies the adoption of a revolutionary color (and sometimes a symbol) to represent their national identity, values, and goals. Indivisible leaders hope their chosen color will become ubiquitous among activists, especially as they move into the organized resistance phase, where activists will be arrested for nonviolent tactics such as occupations and sit-ins. This color is intended to galvanize national unity against the Trump administration heading into the 2028 general election.

MY OBSERVATION - This developing “color revolution” organization reminds me of various guerrilla operations. One example is the IRA, which had a political element and a lethal element. Indivisible et al are forming the visible, political element in an effort to increase support in its protests against Trump and serve as a recruiting pool for the lethal element.

What level of success will Indivisible et al have with this color campaign? To date, their protests have been heavily supported by astroturf efforts and the majority of the participants being older white people. Ongoing leftist violence is producing a pushback to Indivisible and swinging public opinion in Trump’s favor. Spontaneity of participation is very lacking.

FWIW, the leading candidates for color are yellow and black.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

A KC-135 and an E-3, alongside an unknown number of fighter jets, were scrambled overnight due to unknown aircraft(s), likely Russian, operating in or near the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).

OBSERVATION - This harkens back to cold war days. However, the deployment of these two planes suggests a larger response than normal.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The WH has passed orders down to the various department to plan for mass firings of individuals should the democrats force a govt shutdown. This condition clearly hands reductions of govt workers into Trumps hand without a lot of potential for lawsuits. The critical emergency of a shutdown more than suffices.

***
Former FBI Director James Comey is expected to be indicted in the Eastern District of Virginia in the coming days, MSNBC reported Wednesday, citing three sources.

“The full extent of the charges being prepared against Comey is unclear, but the sources believe that at least one element of the indictment—if it goes forward—will accuse him of lying to Congress during his testimony on September 30, 2020 about whether he authorized a leak of information,” an MSNBC reporter wrote on X.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/james-comey-fbi-indicted/2025/09/24/id/1227706/

OBSERVATION - Notably cautious about an indictment/arrest since the sourcing is coming thru MSM. One can only hope this is the first of many.

TRUMP Watch –

UN probe finds Trump escalator halt was accident, not plot against president

OBSERVATION - Other experts say BS, that the alleged system to stop an escalator doesn’t work in that fashion.

As I said yesterday, the act may on the surface seem mild, but it posed a physical threat to the President in that is could have provided an opportunity for an assassination attempt due to the confusion and freezing the President’s movements.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Russia continues to be more aggressive in both their rhetoric as well as direct actions against NATO and the US. They have caused a lot of turmoil in the west over its incursions and the response from the west has been weak - encouraging even more actions by Russia.

But Russia may be waking up to the growing deadline in 2026 when much of their monetary and military reserves are consumed, making it very difficult to sustain operations at their current level and intensity. This could move putin to become more risk taking on the ground in an effort to gain leverage towards an essential surrender of Ukraine.

Economic Impact –

Gazprom’s Astrakhan oil refinery has been forced to suspend operations due to a Ukrainian drone attack earlier this week, taking out nearly 3 million gallons per day of gas and diesel production.
Per a source at the plant “A shutdown until November is the best-case scenario.”

Around 360 gas stations in Russia have shut down due to fuel shortages, according to Russian media. The crisis is most severe in the south, with a 14% drop in stations, while in occupied Crimea and Sevastopol nearly half have closed.

***
Russia’s finance ministry has proposed raising VAT from 20% to 22% in 2026 to fund the war and cover a growing deficit. The hike would bring in around $14.3 billion, while defence spending remains at record levels.

OBSERVATION - For those unfamiliar with a VAT, it is like a sales tax on steroids. Every component of a product is taxed along every step of production. In Germany, that amounted to nearly 15-20% of the cost in the late 80s early 90s IIRC.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend with temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range by the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 176 attack drones overnight, including Shaheds and Gerans, from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defense, aviation, EW units and mobile groups shot down or suppressed 150 of them across the country. 13 drones hit 8 locations, with debris falling in one more.

Russian losses per 25/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+940 men
+2 AFVs
+38 artillery
+5 MLRS
+4 AD systems
+1 aircraft

The Russian Federation attacked the energy infrastructure of Vinnytsia region

Russian monitoring channels reported multiple UAV threats: alerts in Yevpatoria, Feodosiya, Kirovske, Taganrog, Azov, Donetsk area, Horlivka, and along the Kurakhove–Volnovakha–Taganrog axis. Several drone groups are detected heading toward occupied Crimea and Donbas.

Ukraine drones struck a chemical plant in Belorechensk district, Krasnodar region. A fire broke out and staff had to be evacuated, according to local reports.

Ukrainian naval drones struck oil terminals in Tuapse and Novorossiysk, paralyzing operations at Transneft’s facility and the CPC terminal used to load tankers, including Russia’s shadow fleet, RBC-Ukraine reports.

A pier at Tuapse port was hit. Russian return fire caused damage to civilian homes and cars, sparking panic in Novorossiysk, Tuapse and even Sochi, where beaches were evacuated.

Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber while it was conducting a bombing run on the city of Zaporizhia early this morning.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Reported Russian losses remain moderately high. Various OSINT analyst are reporting that Russian and Ukraine both have made gains in various portions of the front.

I am also seeing reports that Ukraine is planning its own offensive in the near future. Hopefully, it will be better planned than the one in 2023 that served to only have much of their new equipment decimated by Russian fire. Word is that Ukraine is asking for a lot of intel from the US in support of such an operation. Ukrainian military leadership has stepped up its game in recent months, evidenced by increasingly successful small scale counter attacks, and the more strategic efforts to hurt Russian oil production.

Potentially related are Trump’s most recent comments saying that Ukraine could ‘win’ back territory. Is this a reference to the suspected offensive?

Moldova/Transnistria -

Russia began to significantly surge its “Matryoshka” (nesting doll) and “Overload” social media disinformation campaigns targeting Moldova likely signaling the start of Russia’s multipronged effort to influence the September 28 parliamentary elections.

NewsGuard, a service that evaluates and rates the credibility of information sources, reported in July 2025 that the Matryoshka campaign spread 39 false claims targeting Moldova, including many claims about Sandu’s and PAS’s alleged corruption, between mid-April and mid-July 2025 after not targeting Moldova at all previously.

Poland –

Poland is moving forward without waiting for NATO or EU approval to respond to Russia drone/missile threats. The government wants to restore rapid-response powers taken away in 2022, adopting a “shoot first, ask later” principle to deal with cross-border threats.

Europe / NATO General –

Denmark says drones flown over its airports appear to be the work of a “professional actor” but there was no evidence of Russian involvement, after such activity disrupted the its airspace for the second time in a week.
Aalborg airport was forced to shut down for several hours on Wednesday evening after green lights were spotted overhead, while Billund airport also briefly closed. Three smaller airports also reported drone activity.

Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen told a news conference that the “hybrid attack” was part of a “systematic operation”, but said the devices had been launched locally.

A hybrid attack uses a mix of military and non-military tactics and is designed to interfere with a nation’s infrastructure or institutions.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7401vk4lgzo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss

OBSERVATION - These drone incursions appear to be very similar to those that affected a number of cities in Eastern US a few months ago.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.

Key overnight developments -

- IDF ground forces continue to press into Gaza City

- Globalists at the UN continue to demand a ceasefire - absent hostage returns.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu departed early Thursday morning for a visit to the United States. Netanyahu will speak at the UN assembly on Friday morning.

Before takeoff, Netanyahu said, “At the UN General Assembly, I will speak our truth. I will condemn those leaders who, instead of denouncing the murderers, rapists, and child burners, want to give them a state in the heart of the Land of Israel. That will not happen.”

Netanyahu: The war goals I agree on with Trump are to return all hostages, defeat Hamas, and expand the circle of peace.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Locals report continued heavy air and artillery strikes all over Gaza City.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

After a period of relative inaction, a Houthi drone hit the Red Sea city of Eilat. 2 civilians were seriously injured and 17 lightly injured.

A ballistic missile was later aunched from Yemen but failed and fell on its way to Israel.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Macron: We must demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, as well as clear humanitarian measures, and end this war once and for all.

Spain to send navy ship to protect Gaza aid flotilla after reported drone attacks off Greece; Italy dispatched vessel earlier
NOTE - So called drone attack was participants misfiring a flare gun.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The operation to seize Gaza City will continue in the face of European opposition. Netanyahu has full support from Trump, and that is what matters.

Trump’s demand of all hostages being released at once pretty much killed Hamas’ latest “offer”.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Satellite images published and analyzed by the Associated Press show that the Islamic Republic has begun rebuilding missile-production sites that were damaged during the 12-day war in June by Israel, but a key component still appears to be missing — large mixers/agitators needed to produce solid propellant for those weapons.

OBSERVATION - Israel took out the solid fuel mixers in their first air strike following Iran’s first missile attack. These are very expensive and hard to obtain.

Some assess that the accelerated work is an effort to get it done before ‘snap back’ sanctions return.

Such restoration of facilities may not be enough for another round of Israeli airstrikes unless Iran is able to get a solid fuel mixer to put fuel into any rockets being built.

Syria -

NOTE - Threat Level is cleared due to stability in S Syria.

Netanyahu’s office: Our interests in the negotiations include demilitarizing southwestern Syria and preserving the safety of the Druze.

Turkey –

With recognition of the fake state of Palestine, Turkey’s dictator Erdogan is now pushing for recognition of another fake entity — the so-called “Northern Cyprus.” In reality, it’s occupied Cypriot land where Ankara resettled hundreds of thousands of Turks to alter its demography.

OBSERVATIONS - Cyprus is the flash point of Turkish / Greek hostilities of the past several decades plus. Many have questioned why NATO retains Turkey as a member state in the face of a standing war against Greece.

Misc of Note –

Some additional meanderings of my thoughts out loud.

A lot of uncertainty in my preparations planning in the face of rising leftist violence and assassination operations. Here in the Redoubt we don’t have that many ICE facilities, however, ones that we do have recently were facing protests by leftists likely affiliated with Antifa coming out of Washington State.

But is isn’t just ICE, the leftists have been calling out threats to Christians as well, putting Churches and schools in their scopes. There are plenty of loose nut jobs out there that have been radicalized to act on their own - we’ve seen a lot of that. It is the move to larger, more organized attacks that concern me and what impact it will have on me and my family.

As always, the biggest threats now are in blue, urban/metro areas. However threats have considerably risen to those of us in more rural areas as well. Fully defining that threat is difficult and I don’t have an answer at the moment to drive my preparations.

Best current advice is to carry and keep your head on a swivel.

Heads up , no post for Saturday

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 16, 2025

UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025

***
With the weekend fast approaching, numerous various protests have been announced, but the outlook for associated violence remains low. Most of the Kirk memorial services have been completed, so leftist focus there has been reduced. Unpredictable, lone wolf violence is possible, at this stage still targeting ICE and other related federal agents and offices.

As always, unforeseen events can happen and quickly change the situation.

***
A man has been arrested for posting social media threats just hours before a vigil for Charlie Kirk at the University of Texas at San Antonio.

Xaelyn Dunbar, 19, has been charged with a terroristic threat for threatening on Facebook to use his truck to attack a vigil of 1,000 people.

His comment: “This is a disgrace and I can tell you right now ima make sure this won’t be a good nor comforting vigil yall watch and see. Ima make this a movie … me and my truck.”

https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1971214312812212395

OBSERVATION - Once again, leftists feel empowered to commit even more violence

***
FBI Director Kash Patel shared on Thursday that the gunman who opened fire on an Immigration and Customs Enforcement facility in Dallas yesterday had searched online for apps that tracked the locations of ICE agents.

Such apps are a “casting call to invite bad actors to invite law enforcement officers,” Marcos Charles, ICE’s Acting Executive Associate Director of Enforcement and Removal Operations, said at a Thursday press conference. “It’s no different than giving the hit man the location of their intended target, and this is exactly what we saw happen in Dallas yesterday.”

“The media has been amplifying these apps even as we warned them it would only lead to more attacks on law enforcement.”
“We truly wish we didn’t have to say we told you so, but here we are.”

OBSERVATION - More collusion between the MSM and violent leftists.

AND MORE -

FBI Special Agent Rothrock: Clearest motivation of attack are in his own words he wanted to “cause terror” to ICE employees across country.
The Dallas attack was “months in the making.”

According to the FBI director, the man who carried out the deadly shooting on the Dallas ICE facility may have been inspired to take direct action from Charlie Kirk’s assassination.

He looked into the leftist ICE tracking apps. He also left behind a note in case “anti-ICE” wasn’t clear enough: “Hopefully this will give ICE agents real terror, to think, ‘is there a sniper with AP [armor piercing] rounds on that roof?”

The deadly shooting, which appeared to target ICE agents but hit illegal migrants instead, occurred in a wider context of Antifa, leftists and Democrats urging violent direct action and resistance to ICE. Antifa have been calling for DHS agents to be killed, and for the facilities to be burned down. In 2019, an Antifa gunman died trying to shoot up and blow up an ICE facility in Washington. He was celebrated by Antifa and some liberal media. In July 2025, North Texas Antifa shot up an ICE facility in Alvarado, Texas.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1971290708549173701?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

**
I found the following commentary interesting for refocusing on just what shape this change in the CW2 direction is taking.

‘this is low intensity conflict.”
“it’s hard to stop once it gets going because every successive politically motivated murder justifies another.”
“it will be violent, often fatal, but your life will go on. and it’s not a “civil war” in the classic sense.”

https://x.com/grayzoneintel/status/1971266787871514684?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Murderous leftist attacks give birth to more murderous leftist attacks - whether they are successful or not. The target group becomes very diverse. This model is significantly different from the Red vs Blue model many have been looking at. This is closer to a classic communist/marxist insurrection model.
Moving forward, depending on successes, I would expect these actions to become more and more planned by a larger, covert element and not so much the general lone wolf attacks we’ve seen. Much more complicated and deadly.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

***
Cuts to Fiber Optic Cables have caused a state-wide 911 outage in Mississippi, and related outages also in Alabama and Louisiana.
No explanation as of yet as to HOW these Fiber Optic Cables got “cut.”

OBSERVATION - Multiple cuts in multiple locations. Timing the same. Not a coincidence.

***
Three men have been arrested in Texas after they reportedly shot a youth baseball coach who was saying a prayer on the field with his team. The coach is currently recovering

Suspects names:
-Mahmood Abdelsalam Rababah
-Ahmad Mawed
-Mustafa Mohammad Matalgah

https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1971010325769322983?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Moslems targeting Christian prayer. Was initially reported as unattributed stray shots. Now a deliberate targeting. I guess the liberal left open season on opposition has spread to jihadies

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said it will be the policy of the Trump administration to prevent the closure of coal power plants, which would drive up energy prices and hinder reindustrialization. People familiar with the matter said the Department of Energy (DOE) plans to continue using emergency orders under the Federal Power Act to keep fossil fuel power plants open.

OBSERVATION - The loss of coal plants has reached a breaking point in many parts of the country, with ‘renewables’ failing to bridge the gap, due to both reliability and excessive cost. Cheap and abundant electricity will not only lower our costs, but costs for industry and especially these energy hungry data centers that are coming on line with new AI operations.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has ordered a rare, urgent gathering of nearly all Generals and Admirals in the U.S. Army, Air Force, Marine Corps, Navy, and Space Force next week at Marine Corps Base Quantico in Virginia, for a currently unknown reason, according to The Washington Post.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The FBI admits it had 275 plainclothes agents embedded in the massive Jan. 6 crowds.

Once again, the “conspiracy theorists” were right. For over 4 years, Garland, Wray, and Horowitz denied or dodged questions about informants being involved in the riot.

OBSERVATION - This is also a component of CW2, where the govt is mobilized to attack and suppress the opposition.

***
More on the potential shutdown

(FO) The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) sent a memo yesterday instructing federal agencies to prepare plans for mass firings, if a government shutdown is triggered next week.

The reduction in force would hit federal agencies and programs that are not funded through HR 1, The Big Beautiful Bill, and are not consistent with President Donald Trump’s priorities, according to the memo.

OBSERVATION - Some have considered that this shut down would benefit Trump by clearing the way to legally clean out federal agencies. A very BIG hammer in Trump’s favor.

North/South Korea –

South Korea’s navy fired dozens of warning shots Friday morning after a North Korean merchant ship crossed the Northern Limit Line near Baengnyeong Island.

The ship initially tried to warn away the NK vessel via radio, but it ignored the call but quickly turned back after the shots.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

NATO and the EU, through Ukraine, have declared war on Russia and are directly participating in it, - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated

RUMINT-

At a meeting in Moscow, a Russian diplomat told the British, French and German envoys that the Russian air incursions into Estonia were a deliberate response to Ukrainian attacks on Crimea, officials familiar with the exchange tells Bloomberg

Economic Impact –

Growing fuel shortages, particularly in occupied Ukrainian regions.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend with temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range by the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reports Russia launched 154 attack drones overnight, including around 80 Shaheds, from Bryansk, Oryol and Millerovo. Air defense, EW units and mobile groups downed or suppressed 128 drones across the country. 26 hit targets at 9 locations.

Russian losses per 26/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+940 men
+2 tanks
+14 artillery

Heavy Ukrainian UAV activity overnight reported across multiple occupied regions: Starobilsk, Uspenka, Crimea, as well as Volgograd and Saratov oblasts. Local channels warn of strike drones in the air, while air restrictions at Tambov airport are in place.

Ukrainian drones attacked 3 natural gas distribution stations at the occupied parts of Luhansk region of Ukraine

A drone strike hit the Afipsky oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region, sparking a large fire. Local sources report intense flames at the site.

OSINT analysis suggests the hit was on the core of its heavy fuel processing: a combined vacuum distillation, visbreaking and sulfur recovery complex. This unit turns heavy residues into valuable feedstock for diesel and gasoline production. If disabled, the plant loses much of its ability to refine heavy oil into quality fuels.

***
ISW. Russian forces are reportedly rearranging forces to prepare for offensive operations across several sectors of the frontline but lack the forces and means required to sustain these operations simultaneously.

The Russian offensive in Kupyansk is reportedly vulnerable due to the lack of sufficient forces to sustain simultaneous offensive operations against Kupyansk and several other areas along the frontline.

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1971402393960186085?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Analysis and Future Operations —

Increasing probability of a large Russian drone/missile strike in the next couple days. Ukraine continues to hammer the Russian oil sector, taking major refineries out of operation for multipole months at minimum. This has impacts on the Russian planning for their Fall Offensive. Hard to move and supply forces if you don’t have fuel. The Russian logistics tail continues to be hard pressed to support the war to begin with. Probably a big factor in ISW’s assessment above.

Moldova/Transnistria -

ISW. The Kremlin is setting conditions to generate possibly violent protests to remove Moldovan President Maia Sandu from power following the September 28 Moldovan parliamentary elections.

Recent polling within Moldova suggests that the pro-Western Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), which currently holds the majority in parliament, may lose its majority in the upcoming elections and that no other parties or blocs will gain a clear majority. Polls indicate that much will hinge on the significant number of still undecided voters and the diaspora vote (whose opinions the polls do not track) such that the probable election results remain unclear at this time.

Russian intelligence officers have reportedly been training Moldovans on how to stage provocations and turn protests violent. The Kremlin may intend to generate violent protests to try to remove Moldovan President Maia Sandu from power.

https://x.com/criticalthreats/status/1971354446186647785?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Moldova is a critical ground bridge between Romania and the rest of NATO. Remembering back to the start of the Ukraine war, one of the major goals for Russia was to establish a ground ‘bridge’ all the way to Moldova. Forcefully placing a pro-Russia, anti-EU govt in power would put NATO in a pinch should things come to blows in the future.

Europe / NATO General –

European diplomats privately warned Russia in Moscow that NATO is prepared to shoot down Russian aircraft if airspace violations continue, -Bloomberg

***
After a drone attack disrupted Copenhagen Airport, grounding flights, Ekstra Bladet reported the Russian Baltic Fleet’s ship, Aleksandr Shabalin, was spotted 12 km off Langeland Island, Denmark, with its transponder off.

The ship’s presence aligned with increased drone activity at Danish airports and military sites.

Jacob Kaarsbo, ex-Danish military intelligence analyst, suggested it may have served as a diversion, observation post, or support for drone-launching vessels.

Danish authorities are investigating the ship’s involvement.

https://x.com/osint613/status/1971499590341005744?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Associated discussions noted the probability of drones being launched and supported by a naval vessel of some sort. This would also be a sign of Russian actions in these current drone activity.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.

Key overnight developments -

- Netanyahu addresses the UN

- Airstrike against Houthis as they continue to fire missiles at Israel.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IDF: Israeli Air Force strikes over 140 targets in Gaza Strip as ground offensive continues in Gaza City.

Hamas rejects Palestinian Authority President Abbas UN speech, says resistance is a “national and moral duty” and vows weapons will not be surrendered while Israel occupies Palestinian land. Abbas had condemned Hamas’s Oct 7 attack and said the group would have no role in future governance

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Defense Minister Katz: We have just delivered a powerful blow against numerous terrorist targets belonging to the Houthi terrorist organization in Sana’a. The Israeli army struck several military camps, including one belonging to the Houthi General Staff, eliminating dozens of Houthi militants and destroying stockpiles of UAVs and weaponry

A missile launched by the Houthis towards Israel was intercepted. Houthi’s claim the warhead was one of their cluster bomb versions.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

President Trump: “Here’s the good news: Macron’s recognition of a Palestinian state doesn’t matter. It’s not gonna change anything.”

***
(FO) Italy’s Defense Minister ordered a frigate to escort the Global Sumud Flotilla and protect them from drone attacks. The Flotilla consists of numerous ships and intends to run Israel’s blockade of Gaza. Spain’s Prime Minister announced a Spanish escort as well. The Flotilla expects to arrive in Gaza around 30 September.

OBSERVATION - I would find it unlikely that these escorts would fire on Israeli vessels or aircraft. It would be like shooting ducks in a barrel for Israel. More like symbolism over substance.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Gaza campaign to continue unabated. Hamas is losing support as its european allies have no teeth to force Israel to stop.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Russia and Iran have signed an agreement for Russia to build 4 nuclear power plants.

OBSERVATION - Both are broke with sagging economies. Who’s gonna pay the bills?

Lebanon -

The Israeli army confirms carrying out an airstrike in Lebanon’s eastern Beqaa Valley a short while ago, saying it targeted a Hezbollah precision missile manufacturing site. The Hezbollah facility has been targeted by the Israeli army several times before

***
Hezbollah is reportedly facing internal divisions among its members over its response to the Lebanese state’s plan to disarm Hezbollah. Hezbollah is also reportedly facing challenges in appointing new leaders following the Israeli decapitation campaign against Hezbollah in late 2024.

OBSERVATION - Borderline RUMINT but very likely. Rumors of dissension have been floating around for many months now.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

The M/V Ocean Trader, a highly customized roll-on/roll-off cargo ship converted into a special operations command center and “mothership” operated by U.S. Military Sealift Command (MSC), was spotted today in the Southern Caribbean Sea off the coast of the U.S. Virgin Islands, roughly 400 miles from Venezuela.

It serves as a clandestine forward operating base for the U.S. Special Operations Force, capable of launching and recovering small craft, serving as a helicopter hangar, and providing logistical and personnel support for up to 200 soldiers. It was adapted from a commercial vessel to blend in with maritime traffic and operate discreetly.

OBSERVATION - Obviously its cover has been blown. Its presence opposite Venezuela demands watching should a more aggressive action taking against Venezuelan drug cartels be used.

Next week could turn out to be a wild ride. Buckle up.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025

UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025

***
Well, things just got hot. In light of a national anarchist / Antifa call for nation wide actions, the current national threat level of WARNING remains in effect but could be upgraded on short notice.

For Portland and Chicago the local threat level elevated to WATCH see discussion below.

Los Angeles and Seattle local threat levels have been raised to ADVISORY as extremists are now calling for mobilization in those cities. Both have been relatively quiet for a while. Could be elevated on short notice as both have a considerable Antifa presence.

***
The Anarchist site Crimethinc has begun to publish updates from the Broadview action much as it did during the riots in American cities during the first Trump administration. They are increasing their call for nation wide direct action (aka - violence).

The Anarchist News, a leftist propaganda site, is calling for “all anarchists across the country” to disrupt operations at ICE facilities in every city.

OBSERVATION - Looks like the designation of Antifa as a domestic terrorist organization has hit a nerve and they and their associates are stepping up their ‘direct action’ operations against ICE facilities.

Armed rioters have been a presence in a more visible sense since the Floyd riots of 2020. Antifa et al has been pushing training on firearms, shooting practice and even small unit tactics since 2017. This could develop into a dangerous tactic in any impending riot / direct actions.

***
PORTLAND -
President Donald Trump said Saturday he will send troops to Portland, Oregon, “authorizing Full Force, if necessary” to handle “domestic terrorists” as he expands deployments to more American cities.

Left-wing Antifa extremists are now calling for mobilization and insurrection after President Trump announced troops would be deploying to Portland and ICE facilities to fend off terrorists, per @MrAndyNgo.

A direct action has been planned for Sept. 28 at the Portland ICE facility after Trump issued a statement that he plans to send in troops to protect the federal property. Antifa and communists have said they refuse to back down and plan to escalate their rioting. They have called for militant reinforcements in Seattle and Los Angeles.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1971991194835030443?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFc

Antifa, communists, liberals and open border extremists have been carrying out anti-government attacks for months.

Armored vehicles full of federal agents were observed arriving at the federal building in Portland

OBSERVATION - Though the focus of the nightly actions has been the ICE facility, federal bldgs are also a significant targets.

No word at the moment as to the composition or deployment date of military forces - active or NG. In that they are protecting federal facilities and not actually arresting individuals (though it is legal for them to detain, pending arrival of law enforcement) constitutionally they are not under posse comitatus restrictions.

This action has been long in coming, Antifa has been increasing its direct actions against ICE for a number of months now, and with the designation of being a domestic terror organization, they seem emboldened to challenge the govt even further. Trump is challenging them on their home turf.

Worst case, but with a degree of likeliness is that Antifa will show up armed and open fire on troops and federal agents. The drumbeat of violence at that level has been stoked on social media as well as recent events. Rioting at night provides them a degree of cover to position teams to target individuals, and to escape back into the crowds.

This can get ugly very fast.

***
CHICAGO -

Yesterday over 200 rioters blocked access to one of the gates in front of the Broadview Processing Center, Chicago IL, and another 30 attempted to swarm another gate and attempted to forcibly and illegally trespass on federal property. Rioters arrived with boxes of fireworks, N95 masks, gas masks, goggles, knee and elbow protection, and large quantities of food and water. These rioters began chanting “Arrest ICE, Shoot ICE,” and one of the rioters was apprehended with a gun, and it was confiscated by law enforcement.”

Last night’s riot was broken up after firing pepper balls and arresting rioters outside ICE’s Chicago facility. They were warned to get out of the street. They refused to listen.

Being that these are federal charged, the local jail/courts will not be able to turn them back onto the streets any time soon.

OBSERVATION - Action against this facility has grown since ICE began their arrest/deportation actions in the area. Noting that an armed rioter was arrested indicates that they are taking the chant to ‘KILL ICE’ seriously.

Chicago is more of a BLM base, but there is a significant Antifa presence as there is in other major metro areas across the country.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

***

Numerous shots were fired from a passing boat into a dockside North Carolina restaurant on Saturday night in a shooting that killed three people and injured multiple others, according to reports.

Officials said the unidentified vessel pulled up to the American Fish Company restaurant in Southport Yacht Basin at around 9:30 p.m. and opened fire into the crowd of unsuspecting diners, according to the Star News.

At least 11 people shot, 3 killed.

The boat then took off up the Intracoastal Waterway with no suspects having been captured as of 10:30 p.m., according to City Manager Noah Saldo, the Star News reported.

https://redstate.com/bobhoge/2025/09/28/horror-in-n-carolina-multiple-casualties-reported-as-killer-on-boat-opens-fire-on-dockside-restaurant-n2194484#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - I have no info on if this restaurant or clientele had political leanings. Unlikely gang related.

***
In an action related to both terrorism and CW2, in a post on the X platform last night, U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that she has activated the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTFs) nationwide to “disrupt and investigate all entities and individuals engaged in acts of domestic terrorism, including acts of violence and obstruction against federal agents.” This is in direct response to increasing acts of violence against ICE agents and facilities.

OBSERVATION - Closely related to efforts to take down Antifa but others leftist groups are also in the cross hairs as they tend to overlap with each other.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

The Bureau of Economic Research released its third revision of Q2 GDP growth September 25, and found that the U.S. economy was even hotter than the previous two estimates indicated. Specifically, GDP in Q2 spiked 3.8 percent, significantly higher than the second estimate of 3.3 percent and completely shattering economists’ original expectations of just 2.3 percent Q2 growth.

https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/business/joseph-vazquez/2025/09/26/blackout-evening-nets-spike-3rd-q2-gdp-revision-showing

OBSERVATION - This news has been out there for a few days, but OBE. Good news in this sector. Now if we can only get other sectors of the economy up to speed.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Military ordered to deploy to Portland OR.

POLITICAL FRONT –

President Donald Trump plans to meet with congressional leaders from both sides of the aisle on Monday, as a possible government shutdown looms, a White House official confirmed to Fox News.
The meeting comes after the president canceled one last week with Democrats, claiming they had “unserious and ridiculous demands.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., were set to meet with Trump on Thursday to discuss a path forward to avert a partial government shutdown before the Sept. 30 deadline.

Schumer and Jeffries will now meet with Trump, along with House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D.

Schumer and Jeffries put out a joint statement on Saturday on the rescheduled meeting.

“President Trump has once again agreed to a meeting in the Oval Office,” the statement said. “As we have repeatedly said, Democrats will meet anywhere, at any time and with anyone to negotiate a bipartisan spending agreement that meets the needs of the American people. We are resolute in our determination to avoid a government shutdown and address the Republican healthcare crisis. Time is running out.”

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-meet-top-congressional-leaders-white-house-government-shutdown-looms

OBSERVATION - IMHO, Trump slammed Schumer and Jefferies call for a meeting just to show them who has the overall upper hand in this game of chicken. He is the Alpha male and keeping them in their place. Two key items that they are pushing is restoration of funding for illegal health care (so called Republican health care crisis) as well as restoring funding for DEI initiatives, among other things like increasing spending by one trillion.

I doubt trump is going to give in on the democrat demands. A govt shutdown would be the golden egg for him to execute massive reductions in the numbers of govt employees, among other things. Polling is consistent, illegal health care and DEI are not winning items for democrats according to polls, but are top priority for the leftist elements in the party.

Monday will be interesting.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russia issued a warning Saturday to NATO powers that are considering firmer responses to alleged Russian incursions, as Ukraine said it for the first time received a US-made Patriot system from Israel to ramp up defenses.

“Russia is being accused of almost planning to attack the North Atlantic alliance and the European Union countries,” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an address to the UN General Assembly.

“Russia has never had and does not have any such intentions. However, any aggression against my country will be met with a decisive response,” he said.

Speaking later to reporters, Lavrov said that if any country downs objects still within Russian airspace, “they will very much regret it.”

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/russia-warns-west-ukraine-secures-175400156.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

***
A Russian Kilo-II class submarine is reported to be experiencing “serious technical problems” in the latest setback for Vladimir Putin’s navy. The Novorossiysk is part of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and is currently on combat duties in the Mediterranean Sea.

It is normally equipped with a combination of torpedoes, mines and Kalibr cruise missiles.

The submarine has reportedly suffered damage to its fuel system, causing diesel to leak directly into the hold.

NOTE - Some early reports said this was a nuclear powered sub.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping in the 40-50 degree range with scattered showers mid week.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Ukrainian Air Force reports on the missile/drone attack by Russia overnight.

Shot down:
566/593 Shahed and other type drones
2/2 S8000 Banderol
0/2 Kinzhal Kh-47M2 aeroballistic missiles
35/38 Kh-101 cruise missiles
8/8 Kalibr cruise missiles

Russian Navy launched Kaliber cruise missiles from the Black Sea and Russian Tu-95MS bombers launched Kh-101 cruise missiles.

The attack was aimed for Kyiv mostly. Other areas hit include Solom’yansky, Sviatoshyn, Holosiivskyi and Dniprovskiy districts; a five-storey building was damaged. Zaporizhzhia hit with major fires. Civilian deaths are reported, including a 12-year-old.

Russian losses per 28/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1110 men
+7 tanks
+2 AFVs
+45 artillery
+1 MLRS

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

On the Pokrovsk front, Russian forces have reportedly fallen into three simultaneous encirclements. Ukrainian troops cut off their retreat routes while drones track reinforcements and convoys. Russian channels admit the situation is “catastrophic” with huge losses. Ukraine’s Dnipro command confirms advances, saying Russian logistics near Dobropillia are collapsing and retreating troops are trapped under fire.

OBSERVATION - Though unconfirmed, these reports are likely to be true. This is the region a few months ago had a reported ‘breakthrough’ of up to 17 Km by Russian forces. However, the penetration was very thin and as I noted, Russia needed to exploit and expand the shoulders to prevent what is being reported now. The penetration is being cut off and Russian forces isolated from reinforcement.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Another anticipated large drone/missile attack on Ukraine overnight. Reports that it lasted approximately 12 hours. The cruse missiles suffered heavy losses, while the drones managed to get quite a few through. Reports that mostly civilian targets were hit.

On the ground, continued reported moderately high Russian casualties. Now for well over a week they have been over 1000 per day (with a few exceptions). The high tank kill numbers are interesting, the highest in quiet some time. Potential evidence of increasing Russian aggressive actions. No evidence that any Russian offensive has started, but likely reflects attempts by Russian forces to improve their tactical positions and prepare for an offensive before the mud season hits.

Moldova/Transnistria -

National elections today pitting pro-Eu and pro-Russian elements.

Poland –

Operational Command of the Polish Armed Forces: Due to the activity of Russian long-range air forces conducting strikes on Ukrainian territory, Polish and allied air forces have begun operating in our airspace. In accordance with applicable procedures, the Operational Commander of the Polish Armed Forces has activated the forces and resources at his disposal. Duty fighter pairs have been scrambled, and ground-based air defense and radar reconnaissance systems have reached the highest level of readiness.

These assets have already stood down and there were no reports of Russian drone/cruise missile penetration into Polish airspace.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Reports of Trump’s hostage / ceasefire proposal reportedly leaked.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Hamas in an official statement: We have not received any new proposals from the mediators. Negotiations have been suspended since the failed assassination attempt on September 9 in Doha. We emphasize our willingness to examine any proposal that comes from the mediators in a positive and responsible manner, while preserving the national rights of our people.

***
IDF: The Israeli air force has struck some 140 targets in the Gaza Strip over the past day, as ground forces from three divisions continue to advance on Gaza City.

The Golani Brigade has killed a Hamas group using RPGs in a drone strike.

The 98th Division has tightened its grip on Gaza City, while in the south the Gaza Division has killed more militants and destroyed infrastructure.

***
Trump’s proposal key components incluede all hostages released within 48 hours, thousands of hamas prisoners released, disarmament and removal of hamas personnel and leadership.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Shipping in the Red Sea region hasn’t been attacked by the Houthis for several weeks now (knock on wood). Companies will still consider it dangerous though and most traffic will continue to be diverted around Africa.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

I’m not holding much hope that Hamas will accept Trump’s proposal. They see themselves as winning given last week’s recognition of a Palestinian “state” in the UN. This will further cause them to try to hold onto hostages for a longer period. Israel is likely to support Trump’s proposal as it achieves most of the goals they have for Gaza. Another aspect is enforcement. Hamas, like Hezbollah in Lebanon, will work to keep fighters in Gaza and rehab remaining tunnels / bunkers with stores of weapons and munitions. With no force to go one by one through those left in Gaza to ensure their departure, things will devolve into what Israel is doing in Lebanon - continued pinpoint attacks to take out Hamas and facilities as they are identified. Of course Hamas will cry over the naked Israeli aggression and start the shooting all over again (also why they won’t want to release all hostages up front).

So, in the near term, bit by bit Gaza City will be rubbled and Hamas cleared by Israeli forces.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iran has increased construction at a mysterious underground site in the months since the United States and Israel attacked its nuclear facilities, indicating that Tehran has not completely stopped work on its weapons program and may be carefully rebuilding, according to a review of satellite images and independent analysis by the Washington Post. The ongoing work is taking place at a site called Mount Machoos, where Iranian engineers have dug tunnels deep into the Zagros mountain range - about a kilometer and a half south of the Natanz nuclear complex.
(The Washington Post)

OBSERVATION - This location would serve very nicely as an underground test site for a nuclear weapon. This raises a question - did Iran manage to super secretly produce enough fissionable (90%) uranium for a weapon and store it away safe and without identification during the 12-day war with Israel?

***

The E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) reimposed UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions on Iran on September 27 despite a last-ditch Iranian effort to delay the snapback mechanism. The E3 rejected Iran’s offer to immediately grant International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors full access to the Natanz Nuclear Facility in return for the UNSC adopting a Russian-Chinese resolution to extend the snapback mechanism’s deadline by six months.

The snapback mechanism is being activated, and six Security Council resolutions adopted between 2006 and 2010 will once again take effect. These sanctions include:

• An arms embargo.
• A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing.
• A prohibition on launching ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, engaging in related activities, or transferring associated technology.
• Freezing Iranian assets worldwide and banning the entry of Iranian individuals and companies into various countries.
• Authorization for states to inspect aircraft and ships belonging to Iranian airlines and shipping companies to ensure they are not carrying prohibited goods.

OBSERVATION - If properly enforced, these sanctions will seriously hurt Iran.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

NBC reports the U.S. is preparing potential military strike options against drug-related targets inside Venezuela. This development signals a possible escalation of U.S. counter-narcotics operations in the region, highlighting Washington’s concern over Venezuela’s role as a transit hub for narcotics and its ties to criminal networks. Any such strike would carry significant geopolitical risk, potentially provoking a response from Caracas and its allies, including Cuba, Russia, and Iran, while also impacting regional stability across Latin America.

OBSERVATION - The collection of US military assets opposite of Venezuela are overkill for just nailing narco boats smuggling drugs into the US. F35s, Marine Battalion and Special Ops along with a snoot full of sea launched cruise missiles speak otherwise.

Misc of Note –

Two major hurricanes are threatening the southeast US. Freepers there should be prepared to evacuate as necessary, take action as required and activate emergency comms networks.

Next week could turn out to be a wild ride. Buckle up.

Valley level snow is now appearing in the forecasts. Fall / Winter to be well underway soon. Colors of the turning trees are magnificent.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025

***
PORTLAND -

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth mobilized National Guardsmen to Portland, Oregon, to defend federal agents involved in the arrest and deportation of illegal criminals. Under Title 10 USC, 200 Oregon guardsmen have been called up under federal service.

Needless to say, the Oregon governor is throwing a hissy fit. The State of Oregon and City of Portland have filed an immediate injunction against the order by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to forcefully federalize 200, up to 2,000, Airmen and Soldiers with the Oregon National Guard and place out of the control of the Governor of Oregon.

Last night’s Antifa call to arms brought limited additional turnout. Large crowds during the day dwindled to the hard core at night. Federal officers were aggressive in keeping rioters away from the building, arresting many. The feds got very little help from the Portland police. Portland Police arrived on scene outside the ICE facility, immediately got mobbed out of the area after an Antifa militant assaulted one of the officers.

OBSERVATION - Chaotic night, but one that didn’t reach the level that Antifa was hoping it would. That failure will put them at a disadvantage once NG forces arrive and take over protection of the ICE facility, allowing agents to once again nab illegals across Portland. Antifa may well have to work up the mob for a new, mass direct action later this week.

***
CHICAGO -
Overnight, nothing significant other than the same general level of protesting seen over the past week. Fed’s aggressive arrests of rioters the past few days may have served to preemptively take some of the wind out of protestors sails. New workweek, and protestors have to choose between riot or their jobs.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

***
Four churchgoers have died, with at least eight more injured and others potentially unaccounted for after a gunman set fire to a Mormon church in Michigan and began shooting at congregants.

The shooter, who was killed by police at the scene, has been identified as 40-year-old Iraq War veteran Thomas Jacob Sanford. (He torched the building and died in a shootout with cops. Police found a bomb in his truck.)

Sanford opened fire on hundreds of people, including children, who had gathered for a service at the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in Grand Blanc about 10.25am on Sunday.

Reuben Coleman, the acting special agent in charge of the FBI Detroit field office, said the agency is now leading the investigation and considers it ‘an act of targeted violence.’

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15142239/active-shooter-mormon-church-day-saints-grand-blanc-michigan.html

OBSERVATION - No definitive motive for this attack. He drove 8 miles to crash into the church building, so it was deliberate. The only indicators seem to be potential mental issues. His truck had a couple American flags on it, but the MSM has not been able to muster a MAGA culprit - strongly suggesting that he was also a liberal.

This is the second veteran attack due to potential mental problems in two days, see below.

***
FOLLOW UP -
Nigel “Max” Edge, 40, of Oak Island, faces three counts of first-degree murder, five counts of attempted murder, and five counts of assault with a deadly weapon following the incident at the Southport Waterfront Bar and the American Fish Company Restaurant. He’s being held today without bond and will be making an appearance in court tomorrow. According to a Newsweek report,

Coring said the suspect in custody “identifies as a combat veteran, he self-identified as injured in the line of duty,” adding that he says he “suffers from PTSD [post-traumatic stress disorder].”

At the moment, it is unclear if the North Carolina case is anything approaching political in nature, but it seems clear that mental illness is involved. That seems to be the common element in a lot of these incidents (speaking about the Michigan LDS church attack). It also seems clear that in both cases I’ve mentioned here, there was some serious planning and preparation involved.

https://pjmedia.com/eric-florack/2025/09/28/is-mental-illness-the-common-thread-n4944229

OBSERVATION - Again, the lack of the MSM jumping on this to declare it to be a MAGA attack strongly suggest that the background of the shooter is also leftist in orientation.

ADDITIONAL OBSERVATION -
As noted above, both of these attacks indicate that there was some degree of planning involved in addition to mental issues. Pending further background on both shooters, if one assumes they follow leftist ‘influencers’, they would be the type that could easily be pushed over the edge into taking violent actions. Unconfirmed reports indicate that at the very least, both were democratically aligned. At least in the North Carolina case this could be potentially true. However, the LDS attack may have something more personal involved. We’ll just have to wait and see if more details come out.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

A lot of speculation last night over the deployment to Europe of about a dozen USAF air tankers at one time. No evidence that they were dragging another aircraft with them. Some consensus is that this was part of a normal rotation.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Democrats are planning a get together at a posh Napa Valley resort right after they throw the govt into a shut down. Someone should tell them that the republicans can make the optics of that look very bad. OTOH, don’t stop them when they are failing.

With one more day left before shutdown, republicans are continuing to pressure democrats into crossing the isle and voting to keep the gov t running via this ‘clean’ bill. It seems that democrats are losing the high ground as republicans seem to be successfully getting the word out that one democrat provision is the continued funding of MEDICAID for illegals.

Trump is reportedly to meet with democrats and republican congressional leaders today.

TRUMP Watch –

President Donald Trump will reportedly attend War Secretary Pete Hegseth’s rare and unprecedented all-hands gathering of military leaders Tuesday at Marine Corps Base Quantico.

Illegal Immigration –

Noting under CW2 above - Antifa et al attempting to stop arrest and deportation operations in major cities.

China -

China is reportedly expanding their civilian ferry fleet and making modifications so that these ship can carry military vehicles in a preparation for an assault on Taiwan.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
RUMINT-

Russian flagged cargo ships have been reported to have been anchored in the Baltic Sea near areas recently affected by unidentified drone incursions. Inference is that these vessels are being covertly used as bases for drones.

***
Some OSINT analysts are suggesting that Russia has 6 months worth of assets to fight the war with and after that, it will increasingly be unable to sustain current operational tempo. This seems to fall into similar assessment that 2026 will be a watershed year for Russia’s ability to maintain the fight at current levels and be forced to reduce operations accordingly.

Similar, tactical/stratigic assessments in the past have been only marginally accurate. However, the 2026 view has reportedly has support from various national level intel sources.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping in the 40-50 degree range with scattered showers mid week.

RUMINT –
Two Russian hypersonic missiles reportedly struck Ukraine’s Starokostyantyniv airbase, destroying five (5) US-supplied F-16 Fighter jets, an unknown number of British-supplied Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles, along with “Dozens” of NATO instructors and targeting crews.
According to a Ukrainian Telegram channel from the site: “Everyone is dead, everything is destroyed, we are in agony. Everything on the base is burning.”

OBSERVATION - If true, the strike would have been associated with the large drone/missile attack from yesterdays report.

***
Reports that Trump may be approving the sale and use of US cruise missiles to Ukraine. This would go along with the growing approval for Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight into September 29, Russia launched 32 attack drones from Bryansk, Oryol and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, about 20 of them Shaheds. Ukrainian air defenses, EW units and mobile fire groups shot down or suppressed 23 drones, while 9 struck targets at 8 locations.

Russian losses per 29/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1080 men
+7 tanks
+53 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Shandryholove village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Major power and service outages tonight across the Western Russian city of Belgorod, following a drone and/or missile attack by Ukraine against the Luch Thermal Power Station, likely in response to last night’s large-scale attack by Russia against homes and other civilian targets in the capital of Kyiv and throughout Ukraine.

Overnight, Ukrainian forces successfully struck Russia’s Karachevsky Electronics Plant in Bryansk.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Very low drone day following yesterday’s large drone/missile attack. RUMINT suggests that the large drone attack could have been the cover for a rumored strike on Ukraine’s Starokostyantyniv airbase. OPSEC would keep this news under wraps.

Continued elevated Russia losses on the front. Looks like a return to the higher levels is stabilizing to be the new norm again. A lot of tanks taken out again. Noticed this sudden increase last week. Russian are short tanks as it is and if they want a meaningful Fall offensive, they can’t afford to loose too many now.

Moldova/Transnistria -

The pro-European party of Moldovan President Maia Sandu has claimed victory and a new majority in parliament in Sunday’s elections seen as critical for her country’s future path to the EU.

Sandu had warned of “massive Russian interference” after voting, saying the future of Moldova, flanked by Ukraine and Romania, was at stake.
Igor Grosu, the leader of Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) which secured about 50% of the vote, said Russia had thrown “everything it had” at the election.

With 99.9% of the 1.6 million votes counted, PAS had 50.17% of the vote - far ahead of the pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc on 24.18%, Moldova’s central electoral commission said.
Turnout was 52%, higher than in recent years.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2rdlj8ejgo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss

OBSERVATION - With Russian ‘separatists’ controlling a thin section of the nation along the border with Ukraine, Moldova holds a key area that connects Romania with the rest of the EU/NATO. The degree that Russian backed parties lost will sting Moscow after all the effort they put into swaying the elections to their favor.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Pending meeting between Netanyahu and Trump

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet with President Trump at 11:00 AM EST or 6:00 PM Israel time. The two will hold a joint press conference at approximately 1:15 PM EST or 8:15 PM Israel time.

OBSERVATION - Most likely central to these discussions will be Trump’s plan to end the Gaza conflict. Netanyahu likely will be trying to bolster Trump’s resolve to allow it to be diluted by Qatar and Turkish proposals.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IDF has encircled Gaza City’s Shati camp,one of Hamas’ symbolic strongholds. The military expects a very different fight. The camp, long transformed into a crowded urban district, is believed to house hundreds of Hamas terrorists, dozens of pre-prepared explosive sites, and a relatively high level of command-and-control infrastructure. The army expects it may take as long as two and a half months to clear the tunnels and destroy the structures above them.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bysskupngx

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

A ballistic missile launched by the Houthis in Yemen at Israel overnight was intercepted by air defenses, the military says. There are no immediate reports of impacts or injuries.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Qatar & Turkey’s Demand: Hamas must stay in Gaza and keep its rockets as a “deterrent” to Israel.
Netanyahu removed this outrageous clause from the deal.

***
Spain blocked U.S. planes and ships carrying weapons to Israel from stopping at bases in Cádiz and Seville. The move follows criticism in Spain that an arms embargo on Israel means little if the U.S. military continues using Spanish bases to supply weapons to Israel. - N12.

OBSERVATION - IIRC, Spain and others forbid the US from flying F111s thru their airspace enroute to bombing the daylights out of Gaddafi.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Trump / Netanyahu talks today may be crucial to any path forward for a peace initiative. From what has been leaked, it appears to contain many of the issues Israel sees as critical, such as the disarmament and removal of Hamas, and the immediate release of ALL hostages. Some of Hamas’ arab allies want more favorable terms for them, such as a continued presence and armament. They are not getting their wish at this stage.

IMHO, Hamas will eventually reject the Trump plan simply on the basis that it is essentially a surrender to Israel. Hamas sees itself bolstered by the declarations / recognition of a Palestinian “state” (so far no one has proposed the borders of said state, other than trying to force Israel to accept placement of its capitol in east Jerusalem). Hostage release will be a bitter pill for Hamas to swallow. First they still have a degree of leverage in the ongoing conflict. Second, goes back to the loss of face and essentially admitting defeat.

Public announcements suggest Trump and Netanyahu are in sync with the proposal. It is broad enough to provide some international pressure on Hamas to accept it.

Lebanon -

Israeli forces carried out a series of airstrikes in southern Lebanon, according to Lebanese media. Among the targeted areas are Jarmaq and Mahmoudiyeh. These areas reportedly contained munitions manufacturing and stockpiles.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025

***
Protests continue at ICE facilities in Portland, Chicago and elsewhere, but with limited turnout and acts of violence. It may be too early to tell, but the failure of Antifa to gain traction over the weekend is a serous blow to their efforts to shut down immigration activities. I still expect them to try to regroup for another round this weekend.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

***
According to the Office of Director of National Intelligence’s (ODNI) National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) urged supporters in the U.S. to conduct attacks on individuals or organizations that support Israel, law enforcement, and government officials. AQAP highlighted large protests and civil disturbances as good opportunities for supporters to conduct terror attacks.

OBSERVATION - There have been some commentators that appear to have taken this warning to the next level and are pushing a narrative of its gonna happen very soon. These threats have been very regular over the years, with no action. However, it only takes a moment of lowering one’s defenses for them to strike, so be alert out there. They will infiltrate protests and launch attacks from under that cover.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Even as homebuilders set a decade-high pace for new construction during the pandemic, the U.S. housing shortage continues to grow.

Zillow reported that 8.1 million households shared homes with nonrelatives in 2023, while just 3.4 million units were for sale or rent. The housing deficit hit 4.7 million homes in 2023, up from 4.5 million in 2022 and 4.3 million in 2021. This marks a three-year climb following the pandemic construction surge.

According to a national survey released in January, U.S. mayors from 120 cities in 43 states estimated the country has a 4 million to 7 million home shortage. Over half of those mayors expect their city to lack 5,000 to 20,000 units in the next five years.

Mayors warn that the housing deficit could grow by another 2 million units over the next five years.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/us-housing-deficit-hits-new-high-despite-building-surge-5913371?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport&src_src=partner&src_cmp=BonginoReport

OBSERVATION - Housing market continues to show signs of stress between demand, costs and other economic factors.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The US is hurtling towards a government shutdown on Tuesday night, and there appears to be little appetite on either side of the partisan divide to avoid it.

A last-ditch meeting between President Donald Trump and Democratic leaders in Congress made little progress. If anything, both sides have been digging deeper into their positions.

“I think we’re headed to a shutdown because the Democrats won’t do the right thing,” Vice President JD Vance told reporters after the meeting at the White House. “You don’t put a gun to the American people’s head and say, ‘Unless you do exactly what Senate and House Democrats want you to do, we’re going to shut down your government’.”

Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer said there were still “very large differences” between his party and the White House.

No one sounded optimistic.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2kn3n315lko

OBSERVATION - The democrats think they have a winner over ‘refunding’ health care, but the focus is spending on illegals - not US citizens. Same for other democrat demands - items the general public have rejected and continue to reject. Schumer is being forced by his radical elements to do something to stand up to Trump. In this case, he’s chosen the wrong hill to make his stand on.

For most Americans, any shutdown will not have significant effects initially. The longer it goes, the greater the impacts.

***

President Donald Trump’s administration started detailing its plans on Monday for which services it will pause if the federal government shuts down this week, with the U.S. health department slated to furlough 41% of its workforce.

The impending shutdown will be different from past government closures because the administration has threatened mass firings of federal staff, adding that it could use the lapse in funding to downsize the federal government.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/trump-admin-shutdown-plans/2025/09/29/id/1228347/

OBSERVATION - Trump doubling down on his word to downsize the govt, and current law supports plans not to just furlough, but effectively fire govt employees. Democrats will hand him a big axe that will disproportionately affect the large sector of democrats in fed govt. Fed labor unions will be screaming for sure.

Illegal Immigration –

Four illegal foreign nationals were arrested in connection with an investigation into a blinding laser being shined at a helicopter pilot over the ICE facility on Sept. 27 during a far-left riot. (Seattle)

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1972806526755848682?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Not the brightest bulbs in the box. Because of the growth on the use of lasers in a hostile manner, IIRC laser filtering goggles are now standard issue for govt pilots.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Putin marked the so-called “Reunification Day” claiming millions in Donbas, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson “chose to return to Russia” in 2022 and that the war defends this “historic unity.” He also called the invasion a “justified special operation.” These are Kremlin narratives used to legitimize the illegal annexation of Ukrainian land.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping in the 40-50 degree range with scattered showers mid week.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 65 attack drones overnight (Shahed, Gerbera and others) from Bryansk, Orel, Kursk, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk and occupied Crimea.

Ukrainian air defense, EW units and mobile fire groups shot down or suppressed 46 drones across the north, south, east and center. 19 drones hit targets at six locations, with debris falling in two more.

Russian losses per 30/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+970 men
+4 tanks
+1 AFV
+27 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 helicopter

Analysis and Future Operations —

Remains in the ‘low’ cycle of Russian drone activity.

On the ground, Ukraine and Russian are claiming territory being captured. Yet no evidence of the Russian offensive.

Some analysts are noting that the recent Ukrainian hit on a Russian power plant could signal a new branch of its strategic drone offensive. So far, Ukraine has been hitting Russian petroleum sites very efficiently . However, the hit on the Luch Thermal Power Station may signal a willingness to have Russians share in the winter woes Russia has inflicted on Ukrainian civilians. Power loss and loss of steam heat will make the winter cold. Many see this as an in kind retaliation, and not a new action.

Political movement towards a ceasefire continue to be dead in the water and Europe/NATO are sluggishly moving towards more sanctions against Russia.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Accusations of voting irregularities and more charges of Russian interference following Sunday’s elections.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Trump releases 20-point plan to end the Gaza conflict

- Netanyahu on board with the plan

——— GENERAL ——————————-

The Trump plan raises the possibility of a “credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood”, if conditions are met. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists the plan does not mean Palestinian statehood, and that Israel will “forcibly resist” the idea.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Netanyahu announces his support for Trump’s plan to end the war in the Gaza Strip, return the hostages, and end Hamas’ rule there.

Trump: If Hamas rejects the proposal, Netanyahu cannot be prevented from doing what must be done.

Israel FM Gideon Sa’ar:
Hamas is solely responsible for the war’s continuation

Hamas official Mahmoud Mardawi on @ajmubasher: We were not informed of Trump’s plan before its announcement, and its terms are close to the Israeli vision. What happened was an attempt to suppress the international momentum and recognitions of the Palestinian state
UPDATE - Some sources now say Hamas is reviewing it.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Cargo vessel struck by some sort of missile off the coast of Yemen. Though not said, most likely by Houthis.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Egypt have released a joint statement about the plan.

They welcome Trump’s “sincere efforts” to end the war, rebuild Gaza and prevent the displacement of the Palestinian people. They also commend Trump’s refusal to allow the annexation of the West Bank.

The statement - which is also signed by Turkey, Pakistan and Indonesia - says they will engage “constructively” towards finalising an agreement.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cd63wl4z6q3t?post=asset:18ac794d-5c87-4cf4-b526-7be1c85ef527

***
According to the full text of the “apology” to Qatar:

- Israel only “expresses regret” over the death of a Qatari citizen in the strike

- There is no apology whatsoever for the assassination attempt on Hamas leaders

- There is no apology whatsoever for the strike itself on Qatari territory and for the violation of its sovereignty

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas has little room left to maneuver, with the offers it rejected over the past two years appearing far more favorable than the current American plan. Senior Hamas figure earlier hinted to the BBC that the terms largely align with Israel’s vision and fail to safeguard Palestinian interests, stressing that the group will not accept any plan that does not end the war and guarantee Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza, conditions that Israel flatly rejects.

So, in short, I expect Hamas to reject the proposal, or make a counter proposal that neither the US or Israel will accept. Hamas doesn’t have the cards to play. Initial international approval of the plan strips legitimacy for Hamas’ to reject, especially from arab nations. OTOH, radical islam groups, such as Palestine Jihad and Hezbollah lean heavily on continuing the fight. Even Turkey wants a armed Hamas element to remain.

At this stage, one must evaluate the jihadi mentality of the remaining Hamas fighters and their determination to fight to the end. That mentality is hard set, backed up by years of indoctrination in schools and mosques. Surrender under these conditions is unthinkable, and imans are doing nothing (seen publicly) to allow an offramp to the fighting.

With this jihad mentality, the willingness of Hamas to release ALL hostages at the front end of the plan is very distasteful. A key MO has been to use them for leverage. That leverage has dwindled significantly. Yet to release is a sign of surrender and weakness.

The saving face and ‘weakness’ is again a key component to the arab psyche. I’ve noted it with the conflict with Iran particularly. To maintain legitimacy, strength must be projected. Any signs of weakness invites another to take over the lead.

One last thing and that is the interactions between the leaders of Hamas on the ground in Gaza vs those in their pampered abodes in Qatar. The warriors have expressed jihad, while the others look to maintaining their lavish lifestyle.

A lot of components out there to the potential Hamas response. As I said above, I expect either an out right rejection or a counter proposal that will be rejected by the US and Israel. Hamas wants blood, pure and simple.

Lebanon -

Israeli army: We killed two Hezbollah members in raids on southern Lebanon.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

Venezuela’s Maduro signed a decree granting him additional security powers in case of a military incursion into the country.

The decree would allow Maduro to mobilize armed forces throughout the country and give the military authority over public services and the oil industry.

OBSERVATION - Maduro is clearly rattled by the military buildup in the Caribbean and potential strikes on narco terrorist operations and bases.

Misc of Note –

A state of emergency has been declared in North Carolina and South Carolina, with a tropical storm on the horizon.

Tropical Depression Nine became Tropical Storm Imelda this weekend.
However, Imelda isn’t expected to make landfall in the United States.
The storm is projected to move close to the Southeast coast, bringing heavy rain, high surf, strong winds, and possible coastal flooding.

https://100percentfedup.com/multiple-states-declare-state-emergency/

OBSERVATION - Forecast models suggest these storms are hanging a hard right and their cores will miss the mainland. Rains and winds still remain a danger. Freepers in the region should remain on alert for changes which can happen.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025

***
Zohran Mamdani explains why he wants to empty out NYC jails: “Violence is an artificial construct.”

OBSERVATION - On the front of the rabid leftists in urban areas, Mamdani is the frontrunner to become NYCs next mayor. A moslem and marxist, he has been promoting some very destructive policies. This is one of his latest bleats. And people want criminals to rob, rape and kill them apparently.

***
Ngo reports an Antifa group has announced a secretive three-day training event starting on Oct. 3 in Philadelphia. According to the flyer, those interested have to contact phillyskilly2025@proton.me to get meeting location details.

https://x.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1972942372087718167

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

***
Suspicious package reported at Utah State, just prior to a Turning Point USA event starting. Looks like police carried out some sort of controlled demolition of said package.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

HOUSTON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Tuesday as investors braced for a supply surplus due to potential OPEC+ plans for a larger output hike next month and the resumption of oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region via Turkey.

Brent crude futures for November delivery , expiring on Tuesday, settled down 95 cents, or 1.4%, at $67.02 a barrel. The more active December contract settled at $66.03.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-opec-plans-further-increase-output-2025-09-30/

OBSERVATION - Increased supply along with depressed demand means more relief at the pump for us. It will also help our economy with lower delivery costs. OPEC may also be hoping that this could generate more economic activity to bring in more money in the long run.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

SecWar Hegseth dropped 20 and fired for effect yesterday, breathing fire on the military’s generals, informing them that the nature of the military will be changing back from a social welfare / DEI environment back to what it was designed for - preparations for war. To effect change, it will start at the top making the generals the examples for leadership. He flat out told them if this change felt uncomfortable, they should do the honorable thing and resign.
Lots of links in the interwebs to his talk. He didn’t candy coat it one bit.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is under fire once again — this time for allegedly altering data on COVID vaccine injuries without public notice, raising serious questions about transparency and accountability.

According to a new analysis by medical watchdog groups, the CDC quietly updated its Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) data sets, removing or reclassifying thousands of injury reports tied to the COVID-19 shots. Critics argue the changes were made not to improve accuracy but to minimize the appearance of risk and shield pharmaceutical companies from scrutiny.

“This isn’t a data correction — it’s a cover-up,” said Dr. Robert Malone, one of the original mRNA pioneers who has become a prominent critic of the federal vaccine push. “The CDC is deliberately manipulating numbers to protect its narrative and Big Pharma profits.”

https://bigleaguepolitics.substack.com/p/cdc-quietly-alters-data-on-covid

OBSERVATION - Kennedy has his hands full of globalists lurking in the darkness of the CDC attempting to undercut policies that are bringing the excesses of the wuhan plandemic to daylight. One item to note is that these changes could be used to protect Pfizer and Moderna from lawsuits

POLITICAL FRONT –

Going into the Schumer Shutdown things are looking grim for the democrats -

Democratic Party Approval Rating

Approve: 26% (-38)
Disapprove: 64%

NPR/Marist | September 22-26 | 1,329 RV

When reliably leftist pollsters show the democrats in the basement digging holes you know things are massively sucking for them and this shut down isn’t going to help them make up the deficit

***
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., is planning a Wednesday vote to reopen the government after three Democrats sided with Republicans on the continuing resolution to keep the government open in Tuesday night’s vote that fell just five votes shy 55-45.

Three Senate Democrats broke with Schumer, voting to keep the government open

- Fetterman (PA)
- Cortez-Mastro (NV)
- King (ME)

***
Nearly 100,000 federal workers have resigned this morning making it the largest resignation in history.

OBSERVATION - These are those who took the voluntary RIF offer from the administration months ago. Trump still can fire thousands more should the current shutdown continue.

I suspect that Trump ordered firing is going to hold for a few days to give Thune time to pressure additional democrats into signing on to the extension. Should that fail, pink slips could be in the mail.

TRUMP Watch –

Google’s YouTube has agreed to pay $24.5 million to settle a lawsuit by Trump over his 2021 account suspension following the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025

Federal agents say a thwarted China-linked plot to cripple New York’s telecom system was larger than thought, with 200,000 SIM cards and hundreds of servers seized. Investigators say it could have jammed 911 calls and cell networks. No arrests have been made. (ABC13)

OBSERVATION - This operation was uncovered over a week ago just prior to the start of the latest UN convocation. Apparently investigators have been able to more closely link the operation to China and found more materials.

Illegal Immigration –

In a massively disturbing revelation, it has been revealed that Democrat states such as New York and California are issuing CDLs to illegals as “no name given,” with Republican states like Oklahoma stating they have already apprehended over 125 illegals with such IDs.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2025/09/democrats-giving-illegals-cdls-and-turning-them-loose-on-our-streets/

OBSERVATION - We already knew about the illegal issued a CDL from Kalifornia that resulted in the deaths of three Americans in Florida. New York issued the ‘no name given’ license recently confiscated. There are likely thousands more on the highways with illegally issued CDLs. Both the drivers and the companies that hired them need the legal hammer brought down on them hard.

***
The FBI dismantled a large Tren de Aragua terror network operating in Chicago.
The FBI operation deployed nearly 300 federal agents using military-style tactics including helicopter insertions and rooftop snipers to arrest just six suspected Tren de Aragua members, resulting in 24 total detentions.

OBSERVATION - Very complex operation with helicopter insertions at the top of the building.

China -

China reportedly is shipping to Mexico as a means to get around US imposed tariffs.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Vladimir Putin has ordered Russia’s largest autumn military conscription since 2016 as he continues his assault on Ukraine.

The Kremlin despot wants 135,000 men between 18 and 30 years old to join the country’s military service in a significantly bulked-up version of its seasonal recruitment drive.

Russia calls up young males for compulsory service each spring and autumn, which typically sees them serve for a year at a military base within the country.

In a decree issued on Monday, Putin ordered ‘the conscription of 135,000 citizens of the Russian Federation from October 1 to December 31, 2025’.
Combined with the 160,000 Russians called up in the spring, it means 2025 is set to see the largest total number of call-ups to its military in nearly a decade.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15146739/Putin-autumn-army-135-000-men.html

OBSERVATION - Most OSINT analysts see this as a move to quickly build forces to either initiate or sustain offensive operations in Ukraine. There are unconfirmed reports that the first round of conscripts were sent to the front absent virtually any training. Now approaching the end of the 4th year of the war, such an unusual call up could be seen as desperation to get the ground war moving to obtain Ukraine’s surrender, action that putin believes is possible over a negotiated peace. Such a large call-up will put further strain on manpower available for Russia’s economy via industry, agriculture, etc.

RUMINT-

ISW. Russia and Belarus may conduct special forces sabotage operations against Polish critical infrastructure and drone incursions and blame Ukraine.

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) on September 30 baselessly accused Ukraine of preparing to conduct a false flag attack with special forces and possibly drones against Polish critical infrastructure to implicate Russia and Belarus.

ISW assesses that Russia is likely setting information conditions so that Russia can blame Ukraine for any of the described attacks that Russia itself may conduct against Poland or other NATO states.

Russia similarly accused Ukraine on September 26 of preparing to conduct false-flag drone attacks against Poland and Romania to instigate a war with Russia, despite the fact that Polish and Romanian officials attributed several drone incursions of their national airspaces in the month of September to Russia.

Logistics –

Overnight, Russia’s Yaroslavl Oil Refinery, the fifth largest in the country, suffered a sudden catastrophic explosion, setting its VT-6 processing unit ablaze. The VT-6 unit, which processes more than 124,000 barrels of oil per day, continues to burn.

The explosion has not been linked to any Ukrainian drone/missile activity

Economic Impact –

The Eurasian Economic Commission likely at the behest of Russia has lowered to zero the duties on the import of gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel and jet fuel. Likely so that Russia can import gasoline at lower costs. This is in effect til June 30th 2026.

OBSERVATION - Some are viewing this as indicating that the damage to Russian refineries is worse than previously assessed. Even at this reduced cost, it will heavily impact Russian financial reserves,

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping in the 40-50 degree range with scattered showers mid week.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight Russia launched 49 drones (Shahed, Gerbera and others), an Oniks missile from Crimea and four Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Oryol region. Ukrainian air defense, EW and mobile fire groups shot down or suppressed 44 drones across the north, east and center. Five missiles and drones hit six locations.

Russian losses per 01/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+920 men
+1 tank
+3 AFVs
+13 artillery

It appears the “Sukhodolnaya” pumping station and another oil pipeline nearby were struck, with both fires breaking out almost simultaneously. The station is part of the main Kuybyshev–Lysychansk pipeline with a nominal capacity of 7,000 cubic meters per hour. FIRMS data shows fires.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Low part of the Russian drone/missile cycle still in effect. Moderately heavy fighting inferred by Russia casualties. Both sides eking out gains

Big story is the intrigue in a potential false flag event formulated and executed by Russia / Belarus. With Russia’s more aggressive posture of late, penetrating NATO airspace with drones and fighter jets, a false flag assault on Poland is well within the limits of possibility. As I’ve noted before, 2026 is looming large for the ability of Russia to sustain the war at current levels and is looking for some way to break the general stalemate. One way is to split away western support for Ukraine.

Europe / NATO General –

French authorities have launched an investigation into an oil tanker anchored off Saint-Nazaire in western France, suspected of being part of Russia’s covert “shadow fleet” and involved in drone flights that have disrupted Danish airspace in recent days.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20251001-france-investigates-suspected-shadow-fleet-oil-tanker-anchored-off-its-coast

***
Norway has joined a coalition of nations in Europe, that includes the Netherlands, France, Germany, Sweden, and Ukraine, who have deployed counter-drone assets and personnel to Denmark, ahead of this week’s European Union Summit in Copenhagen, which will take place over October 1–2.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Indicators that Hamas is going to reject the Trump plan

- Start of Yom Kippur observances

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Jews begin the observance of Yom Kippur at sundown tonight with the Kol Nidre prayer service.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Most view that Trump has given Hamas 3-4 days to accept the plan.

***
Saudi Arabia Report: Hamas will demand “minor adjustments” in the process of returning the hostages.

***

Qatari PM Al Thani is walking back on his endorsement of Trump’s peace plan.
He now says that “the plan is in its early stages and needs development”

***
A senior Hamas official told the BBC that the terrorist organization is likely to reject Donald Trump’s ceasefire plan for Gaza, saying it “serves Israel’s interests” and “ignores those of the Palestinian people.”

The official said that Hamas was not likely to agree to handing over their weapons and disarming or to the deployment of an International Stabilization Force (ISF), which it sees as a new form of occupation, the BBC reported.

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel-at-war/artc-hamas-is-likely-to-reject-trump-s-gaza-proposal-hamas-official-tells-bbc

***
Senior Hamas official to the BBC:
“We will respond negatively to Trump’s framework. We are not prepared to accept an international force or demilitarization.”

***
The IDF continues to press forward with its extensive ground operations in Gaza City as Operation Gideon’s Chariots II continues, the military announced on Wednesday.

The Commando Brigade, operating under the command of Division 98, has been operating in dense urban neighborhoods while integrating intelligence gathering abilities, allowing the troops to locate and kill Hamas terrorists, the IDF added.

Over the past day, IDF troops have identified multiple abandoned terrorist compounds and located large quantities of weapons and equipment used by Hamas.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

A large rocket cache was located and seized in a special Israeli security forces operation overnight in Beitunia, near Ramallah, in the West Bank between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Fifteen rockets were located at the scene by the IDF’s Binyamin Brigade, Border Police, and the Shin Bet, after receiving intelligence on their location. The rockets found were each in different stages of production. Forces also located explosives, arms, and additional weapons.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-869224

OBSERVATION - The PA is failing to maintain security in these areas under its general jurisdiction. The IDF is taking over.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Details from yesterday’s initial report -

Two sailors were injured in a Houth missile attack on the Minervagracht, a Dutch-flagged cargo ship, in the Gulf of Aden yesterday.

The vessel is reportedly “on fire and adrift.” The crew has been rescued.

Houthis claim the vessel was hit by an anti-ship cruse missile.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Parking this here for now - I’ll explain why

RUMINT - . Are preparations being made for a second air campaign against Iran?

- Dozens of US fighter jets + tanker planes have arrived at Al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar.
- Over the past 48 hrs, at least a dozen KC-135 Stratotankers moved from the US → Europe → Middle East.
- More aircraft still staged at RAF bases in the UK, awaiting deployment.
- Iranian UAVs spotted patrolling the western border.
- Khamenei’s office: “Martyrdom is the reward… victory of truth, decline of falsehood.”
- The USS Ford CGS is entering the Med today.

ASSESSMENT - Some of the bullet items are confirmed, however not at the numbers observed prior to the 12 day war with Iran. Some of these items are explainable with standard force rotations. However, the shuffle of assets is larger than normal for this.

Another plausible explanation is that air strikes may be resuming against the Houthis. US may have had intel that they were about to start getting more aggressive towards shipping again, and in particular targeting US shipping, recently announcing that they have “sanctioned” 13 major U.S. energy giants, from ExxonMobil and Chevron to Phillips 66.

Other forces in the region consist of the Nimitz CSG still on station in the Persian Gulf region.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

All indicators are that Hamas is rejecting Trump’s plan - or at best trying to modify it so that they can keep control of hostages and remain in Gaza intact. These are non-starters. By rejecting the offer, Hamas has well sealed their fate.

Widespread support expressed for the Trump plan has left Hamas in a corner, and even Qatar’s backtracking isn’t going to help in that view.

With some discussion of reopening attacks on Iran on the table, a more likely target is the Houthis. As an extension of Iran, it is about the only proxy force it has left that has the capability to strike Israel with missiles and drones with out exposing Iran to retaliation. Will have to see how the movement of forces into the region pan out.

Iraq -

Pentagon says US troops will remain stationed in Iraq, including in Baghdad, but will be scaled back from 2,500 troops to “fewer than 2,000”. Most of the troops will be stationed in Erbil.

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