Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
Globalism / Great Reset –
As the vatican gets ready to choose a new pope, word out is that globalists are trying to exert pressure to have a pope inclined to their wants. OTOH, there is a push for a more conservative pope to counter the excesses of the past pope. Could be a long meeting.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
Relatively quiet weekend, my feeds haven’t shown much violence associated with the May Day long weekend. There may be some detailed reports coming out later today, but no breaking news related. Thus I’ve lowered the Threat Level back down to ADVISORY.
Doesn’t mean we are out of the wood as far as violence this summer, as I think the leftist leadership is still itching for a fight, there just isn’t any good issue that they’ve been able to mobilize on.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 1% on Monday, after OPEC+ agreed to surge production for a second month.
US Crude was down 70 cents, or 1.2%, at $57.59 a barrel. Global benchmark Brent fell 69 cents, or 1.1%, to $60.60 per barrel. Oil prices have fallen more than 20% this year.
The eight producers in the group, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed on Saturday to increase output by another 411,000 barrels per day in June. The decision comes a month after OPEC+ surprised the market by agreeing to surge production in May by the same amount.
Goldman is forecasting that U.S. crude and Brent prices will average $59 and $63 per barrel, respectively, this year.
OBSERVATION - Expectations of global recession by OPEC, these prices could bring the US cost for gasoline down to an average $2.60-$2.80 a gallon.
It will hurt some of the US oil patch in that the price is too low for exploration to continue at current rates, potentially idling drill rigs.
Lower gasoline prices will help the consumer greatly, cheaper gas during summer tourism season, cheaper diesel for lowered shipping costs, etc. May help offset some disruptions from any tariffs that straggle over the next few months.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
US on verge of pulling out of any peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, due largely to Russia’s unwillingness to put forth and compromises.
TRUMP Watch –
President Donald Trump declared Sunday his administration will reopen and expand the infamous Alcatraz island prison near San Francisco to house America’s most violent criminals and illegal aliens
OBSERVATION - Of course, this caused liberal heads to explode. A Trump troll of epic proportions.
Illegal Immigration –
The United States on Thursday announced the creation of a second military zone along its southern border with Mexico, further expanding the military’s presence in the area.
Dubbed the “Texas National Defense Area,” and announced late on May 1, it is a 63-mile stretch that runs east from the Texas-New Mexico state line in El Paso.
The zone’s creation follows the creation in April of a first military zone along a 60-foot-wide corridor called the Roosevelt Reservation. The corridor runs along the border lands of New Mexico, Arizona, and California.
OBSERVATIONS - Illegals have already intercepted and caught in the Roosevelt Reservation sections designated in April.
China -
China’s six largest banks have posted first-quarter reports with a significant drop in both earnings and profits.
Experts said the profit drop in China’s banking industry indicates a stalling economy, which will continue to worsen as the effects of the tariff war between China and the United States kick in.
The six Chinese major banks, which are all state-owned—Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, and China Postal Savings Bank—released their first-quarter data on April 29. Altogether, their net profit attributable to parent companies fell by 7.3 billion yuan ($1 billion) compared to the same period last year—a decrease of about 2 percent.
Henry Wu, a Taiwanese macroeconomist, told The Epoch Times on May 2 that mainland Chinese companies are now unable to receive export orders as a direct result of the tariff war, “and China’s economy and macro-economy have fallen into recession.”
OBSERVATION - China’s economic legs are weak and this may further weaken its economy in the face of stiff US tariffs.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Preparations for the May 9 parade in Moscow continue. Reports of ADA assets being deployed in great numbers around the region.
Personnel Issues –
Last year was the deadliest for Russian forces since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine: at least 45,287 people were killed.
This is almost three times more than in the first year of the invasion and significantly exceeds the losses of 2023, when the longest and deadliest battle of the war was taking place in Bakhmut.
At the start of the war, losses happened in waves during battles for key locations, but 2024 saw a month-on-month increase in the death toll as the front line slowly edged forward, enabling us to establish that Russia lost at least 27 lives for every kilometre of Ukrainian territory captured.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yg4z6v600o
OBSERVATION - These are only the killed numbers. Other casualties are on top of these numbers. Those wounded are to the point of not being returnable to the front. These are huge numbers for what Russia thought to be a three day operation.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 40 - 60s with scattered rain and showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched 116 drones and 2 ballistic missiles at Ukraine. Air defense shot down 42 strike UAVs (Shaheds and others), while 21 decoy drones failed to hit targets. Sumy and Donetsk regions suffered damage.
Russian losses as per Ukraine’s General Staff.
+1260 men
+5 tanks
+8 AFVs
+43 artillery
+1 MLRS
Sumy -
Russia launched 2 Iskander-M/KN-23 missiles against Sumy region
Summary —
Russian casualties (See Russia above) are juxtaposed against the increasingly dependence on FPV drones by Ukraine to offset their personnel shortages. As Ukraine has stepped up their application of drones in general, Russia has struggled to keep up. Now Ukraine is developing a more aggressive anti-drone arsenal to take out Russian Recon drones in particular while maintaining their own’s survivable rate.
Russia has also slowed way down on the amount of terrain captured since the first of the year. Due in part to the diversion of forced to deal with Kursk and the general wearing down of Russian units at the front. Russia has been relying mostly on squad and company level attacks, with no support to gain the Ukraine lines. Ukraine FPVs nail these columns very early and effectively. Russian use of soft sided vehicles to transport troops make those soldiers more vulnerable to FPV drones as well.
There are no indicators of any developing significant actions to suggest a new sector of the front to receive the Spring offensive.
Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025
At this stage, a lot of the information is not confirmed and in some cases fully RUMINT
***
Military movements and actions -
Pakistan’s military has announced the successful test-firing of a ballistic missile - the Abdali Weapon System, a surface-to-surface missile with a range of 450km (280 miles), which can deliver either conventional or nuclear warheads.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
Past the weekend and open fighting hasn’t initiated. I suspect there are some strong, behind the scenes efforts to defuse the situation. I believe the triggers are still set and can go off on short notice. Not out of the woods here yet.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Israel warns Iran
- Govt moves to expand ground operations in Gaza
- Indicators that hostage talks are done.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Prime Minister Netanyahu:
“President Trump is absolutely right!
Attacks by the Houthis emanate from Iran. Israel will respond to the Houthi attack against our main airport AND, at a time and place of our choosing, to their Iranian terror masters.”
***
Unconfirmed reports that Israel informed the mediators that the time for negotiations has ended and that Qatar’s services are no longer needed.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
The Israeli security cabinet unanimously approved the IDF plans (”Gideon Vehicles”) for expanding the ground operation in Gaza, Israeli official says. The expansion in the operation in Gaza is expected to begin only after Trump’s visit to the region next week (May 16). The plan approved by the cabinet last night includes the occupation of the entire Gaza Strip - and the remaining of our forces there!
***
Overnight, more IAF airstrikes across Gaza. One hit a Hamas rocket launch site ready to fire. Explosion caused the rockets to launch prematurely and spiral into nearby areas in Gaza.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Situation is still tense as the peace effort by Syrian Jolani is trying to take shape and he pulls his murderous militias back from the immediate area.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi Media: Houthis evacuated staff from Sana’a Airport, anticipating Israeli strikes following the missile attack near Ben Gurion.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Gaza - According to Israel, the expanded ground ops won’t take place until after Trump leaves the region (May 16/17). This gives the reserve call up plenty of time to fall in on equipment, and deploy to jump off area. Big change in tactics noted. No longer will the ground forces conduct raids into Hamas areas, they will penetrate and STAY in place. This could result in some mean ground fighting, depending on how much fight is left in Hamas forces.
I expect to see an Israeli strike on Houthis, but time needed to coordinate with ongoing US bombing operations
Syria has calmed for now and it looks like Jolani has backed up on his plans to bring the Druze under his thumb.
A far more serious threat is the more aggressive actions by Turkey (see below) to actively jam and interfere with IAF operations in Syria. This could result in direct conflict in the air as Turkey works to exert its influence across the whole of the country in a more aggressive manner than Russia did. And it is doubtful that any tactical agreement between Israel and Turkey will be established like was with Russia - who Israel worked hard to avoid any targeting as long as Russia kept Hezbollah / Iranian elements away from their bases / position.
May 16 also looks to be the window opening for an attack on Iran. Mossad may already be involved with the numerous ‘explosions’ at important facilities over the past couple weeks. Once Trump is out of the region, all bets are off.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window Perhaps extended to May 16th due to Trump visit to the region.
Large fire in the Mitham Tamar complex, some reports said there was an explosion.
A very important place for the production of missiles and weapons.
At the same time (around 3:30 local time) a fire was also reported in Mashhad.
The “motorcycle engines” factory in Mashhad Iran that exploded this morning was more than what you think:
Apparently the Tizpar Toos motorcycle factory have also manufactured missiles engines for the IRGC under the radar.
OBSERVATION - Beginning with the rocket fuel explosion at Iran’s Shahid Rajai Port in Bandar Abbas, there have been a series of relatively ‘unexplained’ explosions at various facilities across Iran, often associated with military related sites.
My initial thought on Bandar Abbas rocket fuel explosion was Mossad related, but the stuff is dangerous if mishandled, and Iranian’s aren’t always the brightest. Later video showing the fire starting in a CONEX container and initializing the explosion that consumed three larger warehouses (separate blasts) has me wondering about the Iranian explanation.
It is already a given that the Mossad is operating deep within Iran, so in this interim period before any air campaign by Israel / US, they would step up operations to keep Irans intelligence / military off balance as much as possible.
***
Trump says he will settle for nothing less than the “total dismantlement” of Iran’s nuclear program.
A tightly controlled and monitored civilian program could be OK
***
Iran has unveiled a new ballistic missile called the Qassem-Bissat, which is effective for a minimum range of 1,200 km and is claimed to be “capable of penetrating the THAAD battery’s protective layer.”
***
Iranian Defense Minister Responds to Netanyahu: “If attacked by the US or Israel, Iran will attack their interests, bases, and forces wherever and whenever it sees fit.”
***
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS TO THE ABOVE -
It is increasingly looking like Iran has pass the threshold of Trump’s patience and that the die is cast for an attack. If the US is going to do something, it needs to happen pretty soon. Forward deployed units will need to be pulled back or new rotations brought in within about a month or so. Time to fish or cut bait coming very fast.
Syria -
Turkish fighter jets reportedly issued electronic warning signals and engaged in jamming operations late on Friday in an effort to deter Israeli aircraft operating in Syrian airspace, amid a new wave of airstrikes across the country.
The rare move came as Israeli warplanes launched attacks on multiple sites, including in the Hama and Damascus regions, drawing renewed scrutiny over ongoing violations of Syrian sovereignty.
“Turkish fighter jets issued warning signals and jammed Israeli aircraft during Tel Aviv’s latest deadly bombing campaign in Syria,” The New Arab writes.
OBSERVATION - Turkey beginning to dangerously poke the bear and may get more than they bargained for.
***
Local Druze police replaced Damascus forces in Soura Kubra northern rural as first steps for implementation of Suwayda agreement
The Governor of Suwayda confirms the local Police of Suwayda is integrated into the Interior Ministry. The commander of the Police isn’t from the province (meaning he’s appointed by Damascus authorities.
Thanks Godzilla
Globalism / Great Reset –
The United Nations could become unable to pay its staff and suppliers by September and its peacekeepers by mid-2025, following an outsized projected deficit and a leaked White House proposal to end funding for the intergovernmental body, according to reports.
The U.N.’s $200 million deficit in 2024 is measly compared to the $1.1 billion deficit the organization is projected to incur at the end of 2025, barring any budget cuts, according to The Economist. The deficit reportedly will hobble the organization’s ability to pay salaries and suppliers by September.
A leaked Trump administration memo proposing to stop the U.S. from making mandatory contributions to the U.N. could bankrupt the body, according to the outlet.
The leaked April memo proposed an end to U.S. funding of the U.N. and its peacekeeping missions, as well as NATO and 20 other organizations. Also proposed were a 54% cut in U.S. humanitarian aid and a 55% cut in global health funding, according to the Washington Post.
https://dailycaller.com/2025/05/03/united-nations-funding-crisis/
OBSERVATION - Boo freeking hoo.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
Antifa launched a surprise assault that has captured a new engineering building on the U of Washington campus. They are attempting to make it a part of an autonomous zone occupation for Gaza. They say the university must meet their demands or they will continue to violently occupy.
Antifa, armed with riot gear and masks, forced police to retreat from a violent direct action and occupation at the UW campus in Seattle. The Antifa forces were equipped with equivalent full riot gear to counter the police.
Antifa have started setting fires on the street at their CHAZ-style occupation on the UW campus in Seattle after police retreated earlier.
Seattle Police have been giving multiple warnings to the Antifa militants to end and leave their violent Gaza occupation on the @UW campus. The militants call for police to be killed and say IDF soldiers who die are a “victory against colonialism.”
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1919638477655752784?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
***
The Antifa cell in Eugene, Ore. carried out a violent direct action on May Day, leading to multiple arrests.
Around 6:30 p.m. on May 1, several dozen masked Antifa militants in black bloc took over the entire street on E. 11th Avenue and intimidated drivers. When Eugene Police attempted to make an arrest, around 20 Antifa members surrounded the officers and threatened them.
***
Violent Transtifa militants at Portland State have been waiting outside the building where they think they can attack @Riley_Gaines_ on her way out after speaking. The violent rioters have already assaulted police in an effort to smash a way into building.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1919609286595854461?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
ANTIFA OBSERVATIONS - The timing of these actions may well have been coordinated (though one event was on May 1). These are the largest and most violent actions in years. They are conducting these operations within their safe zones on the west coast, and at this time do not appear to be spreading any further.
Of further note - they have shown up in full black bloc, especially those at the U of W. Body armor, gas masks, shields, clubs and other weapons and were able to get the tactical advantage of police. The grievances of these protests were not common, Riley Gaines, May Day and the most serious at UW being anti-Israel and anti- Boeing (sells military equipment to Israel).
The UW assault appears to have been launched by Antifa not affiliated / students at the campus. The violence displayed may draw some students to the cause, but may turn others off.
Having just lowered the threat warning to ADVISORY, I’m keeping this there pending observation of whether these assaults gain supporters and locations. Currently, even the UW action, are not manned by large numbers of individuals, but hard core black bloc’ers - the most violent of the Antifa elements.
Definitely, if you live in and around these Antifa core areas of the west coast, you should place your alertness on a higher state of readiness.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has ordered the Pentagon to cut the number of four-star generals and admirals by at least 20%
Reports that two U.S. B-52H bombers are en route to Diego Garcia, joining six B-2 stealth bombers already stationed there.
China -
BARCLAYS: 3% of Chinese jobs are at risk over Trump tariffs. That 20 million jobs
Japan –
(FO) China summoned the Japanese ambassador to demand Japan stop “invading” the airspace over the Senkaku islands after the Chinese Coast Guard warned off a Japanese civilian helicopter. The Chinese ambassador to Japan similarly accused his host nation of illegal activity.
Last year, China patrolled the Senkakus every single day and it is now asserting governing authority over the Japanese-governed islands. China is likely trying to seize the Senkakus without firing a shot. Japan may be forced to arm the island to prevent a Chinese seizure.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 40 - 60s with scattered rain and showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched 136 UAVs, including Shahed-type strike drones and various decoys, from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 54 attack drones, while 70 decoy UAVs failed to reach their targets.
During the night, multiple UAVs targeted sites across Russia. Airports in Moscow, Volgograd, Kaluga, Samara, Tatarstan, Nizhny Novgorod, Yaroslavl, and Ivanovo temporarily suspended operations.
Moscow authorities reported 19 drones were shot down, with debris damaging a residential building. The Ministry of Defense later claimed 105 UAVs were intercepted.
Russian losses per 06/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1430 men
+3 tanks
+5 AFVs
+61 artillery
+1 MLRS
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Lysivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Summary —
Ukraine still struggles against Shaheds and their new tactics of use. Russia continues to suffer moderately heavy losses on the front.
Ukraine’s UAV attack on the Moscow area IMHO was more of a nuisance attack rather than a hard strike. Moscow May 9 parade is still on and foreign leaders are beginning to arrive. UAVs shut down some of the local airports and caused alerts - probably disquieting these dignitaries.
putin says the unilateral 3 day cease fire is still on. Ukraine is doubtful.
Europe / NATO General –
A far-right candidate, George Simion, won the first round of the May 4 presidential election in Romania. Simion’s first round victory comes after another far-right candidate, Calin Georgescu, won the November 2024 first round presidential election that Romanian authorities later annulled due to likely Russian interference.
More:
Simion has called for the cessation of Romanian aid to Ukraine and Romanian territorial expansion — policies that would support the Kremlin’s objectives in Ukraine and Kremlin narratives about Ukraine and Moldova.
Simion, unlike Georgescu, has expressed support for Romania’s continued participation in a US-led NATO as a means of deterrence against possible future Russian aggression, however. Simion nevertheless continues to support Georgescu, stating that he would consider Georgescu for the prime minister position.
OBSERVATION - Interesting political battle in that the EU stepped in and caused the first election that picked Georgescu the winner to be voided due to claims of Russian interference.
Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025
At this stage, a lot of the information is not confirmed and in some cases fully RUMINT
***
Military movements and actions -
Indian Air Force on Pakistan border on high alert — The Times of India
Pakistan continues to say they will not escalate despite the Indians drying out the Chenab River.
Political actions -
India has initiated a comprehensive nationwide civil defense operation in response to escalating tensions with Pakistan. The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has directed multiple states and Union Territories to conduct civil defense mock drills on May 7 to enhance emergency preparedness.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
I’ve seen little info with which to judge how imminent any fighting is. There may be some behind closed doors talks, but both sided continue to be locked and loaded.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Israel give Hamas it last offer to surrender the hostages. Hamas rejected it.
- Further hostage talks not anticipated.
- IAF hits Houthi targets
- Call up for Gaza operation continues.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Axios: Trump has effectively authorized Netanyahu to take whatever action he deems necessary in Gaza.
***
Under U.S. pressure, Qatar has pulled back from hostage talks. Israel has submitted a final proposal:
1. A short ceasefire for release of some live and dead hostages
2. A longer ceasefire to negotiate an end to the war, contingent on Gaza’s disarmament and Hamxs leadership exile
Deadline: roughly two weeks, aligned with Trump’s return from the Middle East.
***
IDF spokesman Brigadier General Efi Defrain said in a statement: “Operation Might and Sword has many achievements, but despite everything - Hamas remains reluctant. We are moving forward with Operation “Gideon’s Chariots.”
“The operation will include a broad offensive that includes the displacement of most of the population of the Strip. Continued attacks, the elimination of terrorists and the dismantling of infrastructure. We will repeat the Rafah model in other areas of the Strip as well.”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Scattered air strikes against Hamas targets across Gaza
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF airstrikes hit Hezbollah targets in the Bekaa Valley in Lebanon, along the Syrian border
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
An escalation in the war on terror in Judea and Samaria: Starting tonight, IDF forces will begin demolishing 106 terror structures in the Tulkarm terror camps.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Report of about 30 Israeli fighter jets attacked 9 targets simultaneously!
Barak Ravid of Axios, citing a senior U.S. official, has said that Israeli strikes against the Houthis in Yemen were carried out in concert with the United States.
Attack started a large fire seen burning at the Bajil Cement Factory in the Hodeidah Governorate.
Al-Hudaydah port in Yemen has been completely been shut down following Israel’s strikes.
According to officials, the U.S. did not directly participate in tonight’s strike operation by the Israeli Air Force against the Iranian-backed Houthis in Western Yemen, but that there was coordination between Israel and the United States.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Looks like Israel’s patience has reached the end with hostage negotiations. Window for ground operations on a large scale opens after Trump leaves the middle east region. If followed thru, this will be a no holds barred fight to the finish.
Situation with Syria and the Druze still tense, but some stabilization noted.
Looks like talks between US / Iran are falling apart and the window of bad things happening to Iran is coming quick - See Iran below.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window Perhaps extended to May 16th due to Trump visit to the region.
Nour News reports that the fourth round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks is set to take place in Muscat this Sunday.
***
Statement by the US State Department Spokesperson:
“Iran will be forced to accept Trump’s position on the complete dismantling of its nuclear program”
***
Iranian officials continued to categorically reject full dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program and zero uranium enrichment after statements from US officials about full dismantlement and zero enrichment.
***
Fire broke out at a Revolutionary Guard ammunition depot in Kazerun, Iran
Following the recent series of suspicious explosions and fires, local sources in Kazerun, located in Fars Province, report that an explosion and fire were heard in the ammunition depot of the “Imam Sajjad” Ranger Brigade of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
***
A senior Iranian official estimates damages from the Shahid Rajai port explosion exceed $3 billion.
***
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
The impasse over the nature and extent of Iran’s nuclear ambitions is causing the unraveling of talks. This Saturday’s talks in Muscat show no signs of breaking the impasse.
Now follow-on strategic forces are being deployed to the region with reports of 2 B52 bombers enroute to Diego Garcia to join the 6 B2 there. If action to hit Iran is after May 16, I expect to see some more deployments to the region.
Additionally, more “mysterious” explosions at important Iranian facilities. This time an ammo dump. There have been too many of these unexplained explosions starting with the Shahid Rajai port explosion to be simply coincidental.
Syria -
Explosions at an ammunition depot in Aleppo, the cause unknown.
***
Druze-Syrian Government Negotiations: The Syrian transitional government will likely allow Suwaydawi armed factions to retain heavy weapons, at least in the short term, in a concession designed to build Druze support for the Damascus government. The government will likely attempt to increase its control over Druze areas over the long term, however.
Continued Violence in Southwestern Syria: Several armed groups, including likely Sunni militias, have continued to conduct attacks targeting Druze populations in Suwayda Province.
OBSERVATIONS - The threats from Israel to protect the Druze have dulled the AQ/ISIS tendencies of Johlani’s backers for the moment. They will likely for the short term, redirect their attentions towards other religious minorities in Syria.
Leftists getting what they voted for.
Thanks Godzilla.
Topping out your post with great news! Nice....
India has launched missiles at terror targets inside Pakistan. Pakistan is responding. Developing
Who is reporting and where can it be found?
Thanks Godzilla.
Thanks Godzilla.
Now processing three wars that have or could have impacts on the US.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
Followup on the UW Antifa assault -
Police arrested dozens of protesters at the University of Washington (UW) on Monday night after an Antifa-style mob lit fires and took over a building to protest Israel.
“About 30 individuals who occupied” an engineering studies building were arrested and will be referred for prosecution, a UW spokesperson said in a Tuesday statement. Videos posted on X by journalists showed black-clothed agitators leading the riot and calling for violence against police, the latest in a long line of unlawful outbursts targeting UW over its supposed financial ties to Israel.
OBSERVATION - Seattle police had to call in support from other jurisdictions to deal with this. UW estimates over one million dollars worth of damage to the new engineering building alone.
It is one thing to clear them out and arrest them. It is an entirely different matter to see if they are prosecuted to the full extent of the law.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
California is set to lose two major oil refineries, bringing the total decline in refining capacity to 21% in three years.
California’s gas prices are already much higher than in neighboring states, with a gallon of gas creeping up to $5/gallon, as much as nearly $2 a gallon more than in cheaper states. The national average price, according to AAA, is $3.15/gallon.
But by next year, Californians may look to 2025 as a golden age of low gas prices. Due to those refinery closures, prices may rise by as much as 75%.
75%, to as much as $8.43/gallon, assuming oil prices remain in their current range.
https://hotair.com/david-strom/2025/05/06/california-gas-prices-set-to-increase-up-to-75-n3802489
OBSERVATION - Many would cheer, stick it to the fruits and nuts in kalifornia. Well pause for a second. Agriculture is big in kalifornia - and it feeds the nation. Other sectors of the economy come out of California and guess who’s going to get hit with the bill for higher gas - the rest of us. Shared misery If this doesn’t generate a wake up call and clean out the human fecal matter in Sacramento, then the state is poised to go down the flusher.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Navy statement:
On May 6, 2025, an F/A-18F Super Hornet, attached to Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 11, was landing on the flight deck of USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) when the arrestment failed, causing the aircraft to go overboard. Both aviators safely ejected and were rescued by the search and rescue helicopter attached to Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron (HSC) 11. The aviators were evaluated by medical personnel and assessed to have minor injuries. No flight deck personnel were injured.
Its been a rough deployment for the Truman.
***
A second pair of B-52H strategic bombers is heading to Diego Garcia Air Base, which will soon host six B-2s and four B-52s.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump to announce that the U.S. will refer to the Persian Gulf as the Arabian Gulf - AP
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Kremlin says Putin’s proposed Victory Day ceasefire still stands. Peskov confirms all instructions were given and mobile internet in Moscow is restricted due to “security concerns from hostile neighbors.”
Zelensky already refused the ceasefire, calling it a “theatrical performance” designed to ease Russia’s international isolation.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 40 - 60s with scattered rain and showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian losses per 07/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1270 men
+14 tanks
+3 AFVs
+71 artillery
Russian army had attacked Zaporizhzhia with at least 13 strike drones. Damage to residential houses and infrastructure
Russian Territory –
Ukrainian attack drones struck Russia’s Kubinka air base overnight, with NASA’s FIRMS orbital fire monitoring system detecting multiple fires along the flightline. The base houses multiple Russian Air Force aerobatic demonstration teams prepping for Moscow’s victory parade
Ukrainian drones have also attacked Shaikovka airfield in Kaluga region
2 enterprises producing wires and cables including optical-fiber wires were attacked by strike drones in Saransk. Big fires at SaranskKabel and “Optovolokonnye Systemy”
Summary —
Ukraine attacking bases supporting the Victory Parade in an effort to discredit the Kremlin and putin.
Moderately heavy fighting on the front, no signs of significant changes in territory.
Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025
At this stage, a lot of the information is not confirmed and in some cases fully RUMINT
OSINT sources state - The India-Pakistan information environment descending directly into the most wildly false and unsourced claims is disappointing, but expected.
***
Military movements and actions -
As part of Operation Sindoor, India conducted 24 airstrikes on six sites in Pakistan, deploying SCALP missiles, Hammer bombs, and Rafale fighter jets. Islamabad reported eight fatalities, 35 injuries, and described the strikes as an “act of war,” accusing India of breaching its sovereignty.
Pakistan says six locations were attacked and claims to have shot down five Indian fighter jets. India has not confirmed this number but does admit to losing 3 jest, including a Rafale fighter jet.
Pakistan has reportedly launched retaliatory strikes against India, officials tell AP & Samaa TV.
Pakistani military sources: So far, about 80 cruise missiles and ballistic missiles have been launched at Indian military positions and bases.
On the ground, heavy exchanges of fire on LOC near Kotli, POJK. Casualties to Pak army being reported from the site.
Political actions -
Multiple nations condemned the breakout of fighting and called for a cease fire.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
Like I said, they were locked and loaded.
This initial round of attacks are focused on terror sites by India and retaliatory fire towards Indian military bases by Pakistan. Though there has been a substantial build up of ground forces by both sides, initiation of ground action so far appears to be limited to between dug in forces along the border and the LOC in Kashmir. If there is ground action to gain territory, it will likely occur in the Kashmir region. At this stage, escalation to a greater fight on the ground than shooting across the border is not anticipated in the short term.
So much conflicting reports, but India did get hit hard in aircraft losses, the most lost since 2002 IIRC. Could have misjudged Pakistani readiness. Both sides overstated their successes of the night, with the next 12-24 hours possibly clarifying the fog of war being generated.
Threat of nuclear conflict is still low. India has not achieved any level of threat to the existence of Pakistan - a condition stated by Pakistan for its use of nukes and India is a non-first use nation. Should a major ground war break out and India ruptures the Pakistani defenses, Pakistan could resort to nukes, but this scenario is not present.
I anticipate the used of ballistic and cruise missiles by both sides focusing on strategic bases / facilities for the next several days. Air losses by both sides overnight may limit their use to potentially tactical strikes against positions on the border, using glide bombs. This is the current tactic used by Ukraine and Russia. On the ground, artillery the prime against dug in forces and military sites near the border will be the norm. I’ve not seen any reports of armor buildups in a specific area that could indicate a major ground offensive by either side - however reporting is very sketchy, consisting of ‘tanks being moved to the border’ kind of stuff.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Confusion over Houthi request for ceasefire
- IAF second round hitting Houthi targets.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Hamas: We mourn the death of Qassam commander Khaled al-Ahmad, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in the southern Lebanese city of Sidon at dawn today.
***
Israeli envoy Gal Hirsch confirms 24 hostages are still believed alive in Gaza, countering President Trump’s claim that the number has dropped to 21. Hirsch notes that while some hostages haven’t shown signs of life recently, their deaths haven’t been confirmed. Currently, Hamas holds 59 hostages: 24 presumed alive and 35 confirmed deceased.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
IAF conducted a second days worth of strikes against the Houthis.
Israeli media: The army bombed the passenger terminal, civilian aircraft, and service facilities at Sanaa Airport. N12 reports that damage from the Israeli strike on Sanaa International Airport is estimated at $500 million, though the real figure is likely even higher.
Sanaa is in blackout after Israeli strikes hit Houthi-controlled power stations.
A fire broke out at the Amran cement factory after it was hit by Israeli fighter jets today. This is a different plant than hit yesterday
Saudi reports say Israeli strikes in Yemen also targeted weapons depots in Jabal Faj Attan, southwest of Sanaa.
Israeli army: Air Force intercepts drone launched from the east
***
Trump says Yemen’s Houthis have ‘capitulated’ to US, say they won’t attack shipping and US will halt strikes.
Houthi spokesman denies group will stop attacking Red Sea ships.
Houthi spokesman Mohammed al-Bukhaiti says Trump’s statement is not accurate.
A senior Houthi official told Reuters: “The ceasefire deal with the Americans has nothing to do with Israel.”
CNN: The Houthis fired at the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman yesterday, despite Trump’s announcement of a halt to mutual attacks
Oman’s Foreign Ministry confirms that a ceasefire has indeed been reached between the US and the Houthis, mediated by the Sultanate.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel moving forward in preparation for the Gaza operation.
The whole Houthi cease fire, no ceasefire may well be deliberately confusing, with some play by Iran in the mix. Deception is key to much of arab politics and especially with Iran and its proxy elements. From the mixed messages, Israel is left out of the Houthi offer.
It is not surprising that this request by the Houthi came after Israel’s second days worth of airstrikes. Israel went after key civilian targets the US tends to avoid. The airport, two key concrete plant and port facilities have been destroyed, isolating the Houthi forces even further and will soon be straining the ability to get food and water to the subjects.
Iran is involved in a possible effort to show it decoupling from its proxy forces and take away from the US the justification for an attack. US was very clear that Houthi actions would be considered to be Iranian actions.
Any prolonged ceasefire would give the Houthis time to scrape together its forces and missiles to resume intimidating shipping thru the Red Sea. Some intel reports indicate that the Houthi’s were down to their last dozen ballistic missiles and depleted anti ship weapons. Residual limited manufacturing could restore some of that capability within months, though direct support from Iran as in the past is highly unlikely.
The whole Houthi situation is quickly changing and hard to make any further predictions.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window Perhaps extended to May 16th due to Trump visit to the region.
“Without Iran’s approval and their long-term support, the Houthis cannot carry out their criminal missile attack on us,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday. “Our choice of when to respond, how to respond, and on what targets to respond - this is a consideration we make every time. And this also concerns Iran, the patron of the Houthis - Iran.”
COUNTDOWN TO IRANIAN OPERATIONS - It is doubtful that Iran will make any concessions to US demands in meetings this Saturday. Iran’s demands to retain its nuclear program as is essentially says that they will do the bomb when they are ready, no matter what. That is the red line that matters.
US has added a second pair of B52s to Diego Garcia (see above), bringing the number to 4. This is a significant attack force, and likely not just for the Houthis.
As the 16th approaches and their delay tactics run out, the potential for an Iranian preemptive attack on Israel and US bases in the region increases. If they do that, they would do so knowing full well that any restraint Trump has on an attack will be stripped away and he will drop the hammer - hard.
Not sure I'm on board with this.
Real Persians HATE the Iranian regime and consider themselves Persians, not muslims.
Some other thread suggested China might get involved... any possibility of something that insane?
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
On Wednesday afternoon, over 100 masked anti-Israel protesters stormed Columbia University’s Butler Library in New York City, bypassing security as students studied for finals, prompting university officials to call in the New York Police Department (NYPD) to manage the disruptive crowd.
The masked pro-terror activists calling themselves “The Basel Al-Araj Popular University” swarmed into the busy library full of students studying for final exams. The declared it a “Liberated zone”.
The NYPD arrested more than 80 individuals, all Columbia students, according to Fox News sources. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) monitored the situation, with plans to fingerprint arrestees to identify any non-citizens.
Public safety officials told masked protesters they couldn’t leave the library without showing ID cards. “Nobody comes in, nobody comes out,” a Columbia security officer at a campus gate entry stated.
Palestine protestors were pleading to be let out. Those who refused to provide ID were being arrested on the spot.
As the night progressed, hundreds of masked terror supporters were marching through the streets of Manhattan towards Columbia University in an effort to block buses carrying arrested protestors.
OBSERVATION - This is a big case of FAFO. These protestors staged their disruption thinking the old sheriff was still in town. They are finding out quickly that is not the case.
First - Participants were forced to display student ID - academic accountability likely with suspensions and/or expulsions.
Second - With the presentation of the ID, ICE is now combing through for any foreign Visa holders - likely with deportation orders soon to follow.
Under biden, police and college leaderships were rendered impotent to respond to these actions. This time there appears to be movement to hold them accountable.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Fed chair Powell refuses to cut rates.
***
President Trump set to announce a trade deal with Britain at his press conference today, according to The New York Times.
TRUMP Watch –
***
The Trump administration is preparing (considering) to release the audio recording of former President Joe Biden’s interview with Special Counsel Robert Hur—Politico
China -
The House of Representatives passed the Taiwan International Solidarity Act on Monday which changes how the United States treats the relationship between the People’s Republic of China and Taiwan. If passed into law, the U.S. would no longer abide by the “One China Principle” in the United Nations.
OBSERVATION - Depends now on if the Senate will pass it as well.
Russia -
Putin announced new ceasefire starting 8th May at midnight until midnight of 11th May.
Reports are that Russia is not holding to ceasefire and continuing offensive actions
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 40 - 60s with scattered rain and showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 20 drones overnight, confirmed no Shahed-type drones after midnight, though Russia has used tactical aviation to drop guided bombs at Sumy region
Ukraine’s MFA Andrii Sybiha: Putin’s “Parade ceasefire” is a farce. From midnight to midday, Russia violated it 734 times, launched 63 assaults, 176 FPV drone strikes and 16 guided bombs. Ukraine shares evidence with partners. Putin can’t be trusted—he breaks even his own word
Ukrainian military have been reportedly ordered to halt fire and respond only to enemy fire
Russian Territory –
Moscow Airports were all restricted whole day due to Ukrainian UAVs flooding the region.
Summary —
The ‘cease fire’ is tenuous at best. Russia will attack any Ukraine element that has let down their guard and not think twice about it. This is equivalent to a ‘tactical pause’ and I expect Russia will used the opportunity to shift forces around and make preparations for a more focused attack(s) to try to get their Spring/Summer offensive off the ground.
Meanwhile, the Ukraine drone blitz of the Moscow region has kept residents tense and aware of their vulnerabilities.
Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025
At this stage, a lot of the information is not confirmed and in some cases fully RUMINT
OSINT sources state - The India-Pakistan information environment descending directly into the most wildly false and unsourced claims is disappointing, but expected.
***
Military movements and actions -
Pakistan says it shot down 25 Indian drones overnight It has not commented on Indian claims that Islamabad sent drones and “missiles” over the border India said Pakistan was attempting to “engage a number of military targets” Pakistan says 31 people have been killed and 57 injured by air strikes in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, and firing along the Line of Control, since Wednesday morning Meanwhile, India’s army says at least 16 civilians were killed by Pakistani shelling on its side of the de facto border
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwyneele13qt
Pakistan claims it has killed “40-50 soldiers” by shelling Indian military installations along the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border in Kashmir, in retaliation for Wednesday’s pre-dawn airstrikes by India.
At least 16 civilians and an Indian soldier were killed in heavy shelling in India’s Poonch district, which forced locals to flee the border villages, the Indian police said. Pakistan and India also said they had both shot down projectiles fired at each other’s military installations on Thursday.
Pakistan said it downed 25 Indian kamikaze drones, while India said it shot down 15 missiles. It comes a day after Islamabad vowed to avenge the death of 31 civilians in Indian airstrikes.
India said the strikes killed 100 “terrorists” as a retaliation for a massacre of tourists in Kashmir last month.
***
Reports of potential explosions in Amritsar, an Indian city located in Punjab, around 30km from the border with Pakistan.
State of emergency has been declared in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan.
Explosions in the Pakistani city of Lahore.
***
According to Pakistani security officials who spoke to CNN, last night’s aerial “dogfight” between the Indian and Pakistani Air Force, which Pakistani officials claim resulted in the downing of at least five Indian fighter jets, was one of the “largest and longest in recent aviation history,” involving a total of 125 fighter jets battling for over an hour in the skies above the border regions of India and Pakistan. During the battle, neither country’s aircraft are said to have entered the other’s airspace, with air-to-air missile exchanges happening at distances sometimes greater than 160 kilometers.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1920287738059698460?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg
Political actions -
Pakistan: The US issues an alert for Lahore, urging its citizens to leave the area or take shelter.
Trading on Pakistan’s stock market has been suspended.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
The intensity of action as pulled down, with ongoing cross border fire and some drone/rocket fire. Currently there is no reports of preparations on the ground for any kind of offensive action that I’m aware of. Most reports suggest defensive positioning. I expect continued rocket / drone action and not the intense air action that reportedly took place the first night (see above). If there is ground action to seize terrain, my bet is in Kashmir where the area has been disputed for decades and numerous wars fought over it.
Concern for a nuclear exchange remains low under the current status of fighting.
A question was raised concerning any direct action by China against India. Given the current economic conditions in China and how its forces are extended towards Taiwan and the S China Sea, direct involvement is unlikely. They have been supporting Pakistan through this current fight diplomatically and possibly with some arms.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Heavy airstrike against Hezbollah facility in S Lebanon
- Preparations for “Gideon’ Chariot” move forward
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israel launched a large wave of air raids against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon
IDF - IDF aircraft struck a terrorist infrastructure site in the area of the Beaufort Ridge in southern Lebanon that was used by the Hezbollah terrorist organization to manage its fire and defense array.
At the site, the IDF struck Hezbollah terrorists, weapons, and tunnel shafts. This infrastructure is part of a significant underground project that, due to IDF strikes, has been rendered inoperable.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, responding to a question by a reporter from Qatari Al-Araby TV, confirms there are indirect talks with Israel via mediators “aimed at calming the situation and preventing matters from getting out of control.”
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Israeli forces raided six UN-run schools in East Jerusalem’s Shu’afat refugee camp, enforcing closure orders that affect 800 Palestinian students. The move is part of a broader crackdown on UNRWA, which Israel banned earlier this year
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Quiet, with no reported US airstrikes nor Houthi attacks towards any shipping or Israel.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Gaza will soon be hit hard, as Israel is taking the next 10 days, until Trump leaves the region, to prepare for this final operation. Non combatants will be directed to the southern most area near the Egyptian border into refugee zones. Everyone entering the zone will be searched and no one with Hamas et al affiliation or weapons will be permitted in. Israel will see to the distribution of food. Meanwhile, the IDF will systematically clear out areas of Gaza not under direct Israeli control - leveling them and doing final removal of any military assets, personnel and equipment, of Hamas.
US cessation of attacks on Houthis is so far holding. There may well be another reason for the stop - preparation of US forces to shift to an Iranian conflict.
Lines of communication with Turkey and Syria appear to be trying to be formed in the background to prevent any further direct confrontations. The Druze situation is calming down, though remains tense as Jolani’s hard core islamist militias are still seeking minorities to subjugate and kill.
The clock is ticking on Iran - see below.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window Perhaps extended to May 16th due to Trump visit to the region.
The 4th round of talks between Iran and the United States, scheduled for Sunday, has also been canceled!
OBSERVATION - No word on which side did the cancelation, though it is likely that Iran did, as they canceled the previous round as well.
***
Facing a worsening energy shortage, the Iranian government has announced daily power cuts and shortened work hours in all government buildings to 6 a.m. to 1 p.m., five days a week.
https://x.com/osint613/status/1920134024158138797?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg
***
Khamenei’s advisor: Lifting sanctions and recognizing Iran’s right to industrial uranium enrichment will ensure an agreement.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
Iran’s stepping out of negotiations for a second time is only adding fuel to the fire that they are not negotiating but delaying. Trump’s hard and fast demand for the removal of the uranium enrichment program is one that Iran clearly rejects. Trump warns it will be taken out either peacefully or in pieces.
Reports of the bomber build up at Diego Garcia is massively significantly, since this level hasn’t been seen in a very long time. As I noted above under Israel, the cessation of US bombing of the Houthis will permit naval task forces to rearm and prepare for any potential actions against Iran. Watching to see if the Truman moves out of the Red Sea and towards the Gulf of Oman. Watching to see if the Nimitz CSG gets diverted to CENTCOM, it has time to reach the region by the 16th.
Turkey –
Turkey-Israel talks mediated by Azerbaijan to be held tomorrow in Baku. Israel’s key demands: no threatening military presence near its border and no strategic weapons in Syria
Thanks Godzilla.
Globalism / Great Reset –
On the 4th vote, American born Robert Francis Prevost was selected to be the next pope, taking the name of Leo XIV. In addition to his American citizenship, Prevost also holds Peruvian citizenship. Vatican watchers have noted that Francis appeared to have brought Prevost to Rome in recent years, perhaps to set him up as a potential successor. It is thought Pope Francis had all but rigged the process to assure another radical successor.
What do we know about Leo’s views on current controversies?
- He has been critical of President Trump’s mass deportations of undocumented migrants to Latin America
- On April 14, Prevost retweeted a post referencing the deportation of an undocumented migrant to El Salvador ( Garcia - the ‘Maryland Man’)
- endorsed DREAMer-style illegal immigration,
- repeatedly praised and honored George Floyd,
- and endorsed a Democrat senator’s call for more gun control.
https://x.com/seanmdav/status/1920537897821716812?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Some observers are conjecturing that Prevost was selected to counter President Trump. Choosing an American Pope with deep South American ties is supposed to raise the stakes and elevate a leader with the stature to rally opposition to Trump and more specifically to his immigration policies by invoking the familiar tropes about the need for welcoming in every single migrant.
Bottom line is that on a policy line, there appears that there will be little change from Francis. Leo XIV will continue to support the globalist agenda as a key religious leader of a large portion of the world.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
Arrests are being made and violent clashes are erupting outside Brooklyn’s CUNY campus after the NYPD raided a pro-Palestine encampment.
OBSERVATION - Looks like the favorite topic of protests again this spring are pro-hamas. However, with the exception of the very violent Antifa-based action at the UW, these have been so far much tamer than last spring. The library take over at Colombia ended quickly and now encampment removals happening quicker. The pushback to the colleges over the past year, combined with a much stronger stance towards foreigners with student visas facing quick deportment may have changed student attitudes quickly.
***
Weekend outlook -
Much like previous, numerous protests with generally little potential for violence. I expect to see some increase in pro-hamas protests on college campuses, but believe that it will be much tamer than last year, as protestors face a much higher likelihood of retribution - suspension - expulsion from schools as well as foreign students facing quick deportments.
Antifa strongholds in the left coast have seen supporters calling for more violent actions like that at UW. Nothing has popped up on my radar as being scheduled this weekend. However Antifa trackers have noted that discussions / planning have dropped off most social media sites and gone into private areas or even in person meetings.
As before, keep situationally aware as things in protest / riot prone urban areas can change rapidly.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
The National Weather Service (NWS) is on high-alert and both federal as well as state law enforcement agencies are investigating recent threats made against weather radar facilities operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The threats are said to have been made by a group calling themselves Veterans on Patrol, described as an anti-government militia located in Arizona and led by self-proclaimed Christian nationalist and conspiracy theorist Michael “Lewis Arthur” Meyer, who believes that the NWS’s Doppler weather radar systems are being used as a “weather weapon” against people in the United States. The milita has since sent threats to several radar sites across the country, while publicly encouraging attacks against the facilities; NOAA officials have also received internal warnings about the group advocating for “penetration drills” to identify weaknesses at the radar sites, with the goal of ultimately destroying them and harming staff members of the NWS.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1920721410353156518?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Real group and with violent inclinations. These radar systems and the NOAA are soft targets. Hope they get them off the streets soon.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Congressional republicans are facing increasing flack over the stalled efforts to codify Trump’s agenda items and pull along side him in the fights with rogue judicial activists.
They seem hell bent on pulling another defeat from the jaws of victory.
***
President Donald Trump said Thursday that he is naming Jeanine Pirro, a former county prosecutor and elected judge, to be the top federal prosecutor for the nation’s capital after rescinding the nomination of his first choice.
OBSERVATION - This has raised some eyebrows. She has some honey badger streaks in her.
Illegal Immigration –
Noem also told Congress that “there is no scenario” where Kilmar Abrego Garcia will be returned to the United States. “If he were to come back, we would immediately deport him again,” she added.
OBSERVATION - You go girl!
China -
U.S. Treasury sanctions a third Chinese “teapot” refinery, Hebei Xinhai, today. Shandong province-based teapots account for 80-90% of all Iranian oil exports.
OBSERVATION - Hits both China and Iran in the pocket books
***
A lot of rumors that China and the US are in serious trade negotiations, though China has very publicly denied such. Reports that Trump is looking to tweak some of the imposed tariffs on Chinese products. However, manufactures in China, facing potentially long periods of no production / sales are scrambling to move work to other countries that face lesser stress by US tariffs or will see agreements far sooner than China will.
Phillipines –
Two Chinese Navy frigates and a China Coast Guard cutter harassed a Philippine Navy patrol ship in the South China Sea near Scarborough Shoal on Monday in what Manila described as “aggressive and unsafe maneuvers.”
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Russia conducted its ‘victory’ parade with no incidents.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 40 - 60s with rain and showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No Shahed UAVs or missile launches spotted over Ukraine today. But make no mistake—fighting continues on nearly all fronts.
Russian losses per 09/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1300 men
+4 tanks
+4 AFVs
+36 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
Russian Territory –
Recent strikes on Russia’s Shaykovka airbase caused serious damage: all Kh-22 missile support facilities were destroyed, fires broke out near the fuel station, and even shielded fuel tanks burned — underground shelters and anti-drone nets couldn’t save them.
Summary —
Only ‘cease fire’ has been with the Shahed attacks. Otherwise fighting appeared to be heavier than recent days along the front. Maintenance of high levels of fighting suggests that Russia may not be able to reposition forces in an efficient manner to adjust key axis of attacks for their Spring/Summer offensive goals. Feeding man power losses to the front line will be a significant drain on building a reserve to push an offensive.
Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025
At this stage, a lot of the information is not confirmed and in some cases fully RUMINT
OSINT sources state - The India-Pakistan information environment descending directly into the most wildly false and unsourced claims is disappointing, but expected.
India just issued an Executive Order to Social Media giant “X” ordering them to make ~8,000 accounts unavailable in India! Many of these accounts are OSINT oriented.
***
Military movements and actions -
India reports that Pakistan expanded the fighting along the entire western border. Both sides have confirmed loss of jets, including at least two Chinese-made JF-17s on the Pakistani side.
Indian and Pakistani soldiers exchanged heavy volleys of shells and gunfire across their frontier in Kashmir overnight, killing at least five civilians amid a growing military standoff that erupted following an attack on tourists in the India-controlled portion of the disputed region.
India’s advanced Russian-made S-400 air defence systems have reportedly come under attack & completely neutralized from unidentified missiles and drones in Adampur.
Unconfirmed / RUMINT that the naval forces of India are engaging Pakistan from the Arabian Sea tonight, 08 May 2025.
It is not yet clear if there is ship-to-ship combat, or if the India Navy is firing missiles into Pakistan, but military engagement is reportedly taking place right now.
https://halturnerradioshow.com/images/2025/05/08/Concentrated-Chart-India-Pak-engagements-May-8.jpg
NOTE - Areas of the Arabian sea have had NOTAMS issued for naval gunfire exercises by both sides, and this might be misinterpreted as combat.
The city of Jammu, Indian-administered Kashmir, was reportedly under drone attack from Pakistan, with Indian air defenses active in and around the city. Jammu is one of the dual capitals of the Indian-administered region.
Indian media reports that the Indian army shot down about 50 drones launched by Pakistan last night
India has reportedly killed Abdul Rauf Azhar—Jaish-e-Mohammed commander and key conspirator in the kidnapping and beheading of American journalist Daniel Pearl—in precision strikes on terror sites in Pakistan.
Political actions -
Iranian Foreign Ministry: Pakistani Foreign Minister confirmed in a call with Araghchi that his country does not seek escalation with India.
***
U.S. Vice President JD Vance has said that a potential war between India and Pakistan would be “none of our business.”
“What we can do is try to encourage these folks to de-escalate a little bit, but we’re not going to get involved in the middle of war that’s fundamentally none of our business and has nothing to do with America’s ability to control it,” Vance said in an interview with Fox News.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/kashmir-india-pakistan/2025/05/09/id/1210204/
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
Tightened controls on social media, and wild disinformation efforts by the regular media and govt outlets have been giving OSINT folks the fits as they try to work through what is actually happening in this fight. The smothering of heresy and rumors makes the fog of war for outside observer nearly opaque.
What I generally see is that the conflict has settled down into a tit for tat. One side fires drones, the other replies with similar. Emplacements along the LOC on both sides are experiencing artillery strikes, but it is unclear if these strikes are preparatory for a larger ground assault.
The apparent ‘win’ in the initial air battle by Pakistan may have given India pause on expanding the fight for the moment. Pakistan demonstrated good tactical use of what they had, which India may have underestimated.
Assessment is that either side could launch a ground assault at almost any time, most likely in the heavily disputed Kashmir region. Civil defense measures for both sides indicate the concern of a much larger conflict.
India did hit the designated terror bases hard and successfully, so for that objective India can claim success and potentially provide an off ramp from larger action. However, the continued fighting will increasingly make it difficult for both sides to throttle down any time soon.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Rumors of a rift between Trump and Netanyahu
——— GENERAL ——————————-
(FO) Israeli media is reporting that Israel was entirely unaware of the U.S.-Yemen ceasefire. The Israeli Defense Minister says Israel needs to prepare to defend itself without American support.
U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee told Israeli media in an interview that, “The United States isn’t required to get permission from Israel to make some type of arrangement that would get the Houthis from firing on our ships.”
Israeli media claims that Israel is concerned President Trump will announce an Iran Nuclear Deal that leaves the nuclear program intact and Israel isolated. Israel’s main negotiators reportedly “have failed to influence policy or even keep abreast of secret talks.”
President Trump is heading to the Middle East next week with no plans to visit Israel and a teased big announcement that may come tonight or Monday.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Airstrikes targeted eastern areas of Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip.
Fatah spokesman in Gaza to Al-Hadath: Hamas must recognize the rule of the Palestinian Authority.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthis are so far quiet, except for chest beating.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Erdogan: “Israel’s violations are turning the region into a bloodbath, especially in Gaza.”
The Times of Israel: The European Union is reviewing its trade relations with Israel after criticism of its conduct in the war on Gaza.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Gaza - IAF hitting key targets, likely in preparations for the ground assault.
Lebanon and Syria - Stable
Iran - Clock is ticking.
Noting the reportedly alleged tiff between Netanyahu and Trump. Sources are from leftist news media and the reporting would fit standard efforts to generate a split between the two nations, creating doubt.
A difference between the two may well exist to a degree. Trump has his policy objectives, Netanyahu his. But on key issues like the Iranian nuclear program, they seem to be on the same sheet of music. On Iran, Netanyahu made it clear, in the case of Syrias and Iraq’s nuclear programs, the US said no and Israel went a head and took them out anyway. The same can happen with Iran. I don’t think Trump will want Israel to have the solo spotlight of taking out Iran’s program, so this issue will heal quickly I think. Netanyahu is smart enough to be flexible to a degree.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region.
IRGC Chief warns Israel and the US:
“This is a serious warning to Zionist officials and US officials,”
“Make one wrong move, and we will open the gates of helI on you. Sit down and stay in your place we are fully prepared.”
***
News that a facility has been operating in the open in Iran for over a decade that is producing Tritium - key nuclear weapon component. It has been disguised as a chemical plant during this time, but covertly released information has brought out the tritium production aspect.
OBSERVATION - Iran well into its chest beating phase of deterrence. They said similar towards Israel before they were humbled by the air strike that stripped them of most of their air defense assets as well as touched on some aspects of their nuclear program.
The US has prepositioned significant strike capabilities at Diego Garcia as well as beefed up air defense capabilities in the region to protect bases. Iran faces getting hammered hard when the word is given.
Again, the visit by Trump to the region next week could be the initiator of the final count down. He is scheduled to depart the region on May 16th. Once cleared, any thing could happen.
Syria -
French President Emmanuel Macron said he would push for European Union (EU) sanctions against Syria to not be renewed in June. Macron made the comments as he hosted Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Paris
OBSERVATION - EU and Macron are ignoring the fact that Jolani (al-Sharaa) has let its ISIS/AQ oriented militias go on rampages against minority religious groups..
Turns out the new Pope is a Republican... That said, it'd be nice if he weighed in as a strong spiritual leader who just happened to be Republican...
Globalism / Great Reset –
Daily Mail: “The boss of the AI tool ChatGPT has revealed that his eyeball-scanning orbs are coming to the US, as questions still swirl around this dystopian step into the future. Sam Altman announced Wednesday that the identity verification technology will now be available in six cities –Atlanta, Austin, Los Angeles, Miami, Nashville, and San Francisco.”
OBSERVATION - Push for greater surveillance and tracking of individuals grows as part of a biometric ID. As the technology develops, expect greater use and resulting controls and tracking.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
Multiple Democrat members of Congress have broken into an ICE facility in New Jersey, and the Mayor of Newark has been arrested by DHS
They waited for the busses to open the gates, and they stormed in. U.S. Attorney Alina Habba: “I can confirm that we have put the Mayor, Ras Baraka, under arrest… We will not stand for anybody getting in the way of getting rid of criminals in this country… He has been arrested and will be charged.”
Rep. LaMonica McIver was caught on video physically attacking law enforcement after storming New Jersey ICE facility. She currently has not been arrested.
OBSERVATION - Double this under Illegal Immigration. This is important here in that democrat civic leaders are openly participating and encouraging acts of violence (resistance) against the US govt. Monitoring to see if Rep. LaMonica McIver is arrested as well. Mayor Ras Baraka is already pleading the victim on his arrest. As the deportation train continues to pick up speed, violent acts like this can be expected to increase as well, attempting to garner greater support and generate BLM-like conditions for broader protests and riots.
***
BLM activists protested in Rochester, Minnesota, demanding the arrest of a white woman who allegedly called a boy stealing from her bag a racial slur.
OBSERVATION - Local issue, not likely to gain much traction on a national basis. Whole scenario suggests a degree of weariness with black victimization claims.
***
Columbia University has suspended 65 students and banned 33 alumni and non-affiliates from campus for their role in the Butler Library takeover. Additionally, DHS is requesting the names of those involved to review their immigration status.
OBSERVATION - Far different response than last year. Biggest part is the referral of foreign students who participated. Uncertain if the suspensions will lead to expulsions.
***
Weekend action - As before, keep situationally aware as things in protest / riot prone urban areas can change rapidly.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
All 6 B-2 stealth bombers have left Diego Garcia and are heading back to the states.
OBSERVATION - This leaves just 4 B52s on the Island. A potent force, but lacks the penetration ability the B2s offered. At a loss is the delivery capability of the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, GBU-57, which only the B2 is designed to carry.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Grand jury subpoenas have just been issued in the Letitia James mortgage fraud investigation
Looks like an arrest could be coming VERY soon!
Illegal Immigration –
White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller said Friday that President Trump and his team are “actively looking at” suspending habeas corpus as part of the administration’s immigration crackdown.
“Well, the Constitution is clear — and that of course is the supreme law of the land — that the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus can be suspended in a time of invasion,” Miller told reporters at the White House.
“So, it’s an option we’re actively looking at. Look, a lot of it depends on whether the courts do the right thing or not.”
A writ of habeas corpus compels authorities to produce an individual they are holding and to justify their confinement.
The Constitution says habeas corpus may not be suspended “unless when in Cases of Rebellion or Invasion the public Safety may require it.”
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5292820-white-house-miller-immigration-crackdown/
OBSERVATION - Expect that the left will file furious lawsuits and the cast of rogue judges will be in the forefront against it.
North/South Korea –
Kim Jong Un says North Korea’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war is “justified” and a sovereign act in defense of a “brother nation”. He warned of military action if U.S. “provocations against Russia” continue.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 40 - 60s with rain and showers.
The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv has received information concerning a potentially significant air attack that may occur at any time over the next several days. The Embassy, as always, recommends U.S. citizens be prepared to immediately shelter in the event an air alert is announced.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No Shahed UAVs or missile launches spotted over Ukraine again today.
Russian losses per 10/05/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff
+1310 men
+4 tanks
+7 AFVs
+49 artillery
+1 AD system
Summary —
Only ‘cease fire’ has been with the Shahed attacks.
Moderately heavy fighting along the front again, with very little, if any, changes to the front.
The meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing” in Kyiv was more political show than anything else. Designed to bolster Ukrainian morale.
Europe / NATO General –
Foreign Minister of Ukraine: Following the Coalition of the Willing meeting in Kyiv, all five leaders Zelenskyy Ua, Emmanuel Macron, bundeskanzler Donald Tusk, Keir Starmer had a fruitful call with POTUS focused on peace efforts. Ukraine and all allies are ready for a full unconditional ceasefire on land, air, and at sea for at least 30 days starting already on Monday. If Russia agrees and effective monitoring is ensured, a durable ceasefire and confidence-building measures can pave the way to peace negotiations.
Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025
Continued warning of the veracity of combat data for this conflict. Ton of claims out of South Asia this morning, only a small amount of verifiable evidence. Be very careful with taking anything at face value. It’s pretty obvious that a lot of weapon systems are heading each way over the India-Pakistan border today, but only a few videos have emerged clearly showing where they are landing.
***
Military movements and actions -
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has summoned a meeting of the National Command Authority — Pakistan’s top body overseeing its nuclear arsenal.
This marks the first publicly known meeting of the NCA since February 2019, taking place as Pakistan intensifies its counter-offensive under Operation Bunyan-ul-Marsoos.
Overnight, the conflict between Pakistan and India intensified with exchanges of drone and artillery attacks.
Pakistan said its forces had hit an Indian airbase, and other targets, in response to Delhi striking three of its bases.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shebaz Sahrif said his county has given a “befitting response” to India.
The Indian Army has announced the recruitment of thousands of reserve soldiers on a voluntary basis to support military operations in conflicts with Pakistan.
During a recently concluded press briefing with the Indian Army and Air Force, it was noted that Pakistan reportedly has begun moving units into “forward areas” and Indian spokespersons have said the move was done with “offensive intent.”
However, given recent rhetoric from Pakistani military and civilian decision-makers, it’s unlikely that Pakistan will be the first to initiate large ground operations and in expectation of potential Indian retaliation for the last wave of strikes, the aforementioned move is likely more defensive in nature.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1921085979508592937?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Political actions -
Unconfirmed reports that a phone call took place between the commanders of Pakistani and Indian military operations.
US Secretary of State Rubio: I am pleased to announce the Governments of India and Pakistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire and to start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site. We commend Prime Ministers Modi and Sharif on their wisdom, prudence, and statesmanship in choosing the path of peace
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
Following a very significant escalation in missile attacks by both sides, it appears there is an attempt to put the breaks on. Some indicators suggest that the initial request came from Pakistan. Claims of US intervention in negotiations as well.
It was apparent after yesterday’s rounds of rocket fire things were close to breaking all out. Time will tell today if this ceasefire will hold.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Jerusalem Post - President Trump reportedly to announce US recognition of Palestinian state.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Jerusalem Post reporting sources from gulf arab states that the ‘big announcement’ Trump is planning to give following his visit to the region is the recognition of a Palestinian state. If this is true, this will be the biggest turnaround of a US president ever on Israeli relations.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Netanyahu warns Hamas the ‘rules are changing’ once operations begin in Gaza under Gideon’s Chariot.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Since the launch of “Operation Iron Wall” on Jan. 21, Israeli forces have killed more than 100 terrorists, arrested approximately 320 wanted individuals and seized around 450 weapons in Judea and Samaria, the military announced on Wednesday.
Security forces have also dismantled hundreds of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and pipe bombs, along with dozens of homes used as bomb-making laboratories and weapons storage facilities.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-77/
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Israel’s Arrow long-range air defense system successfully intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile launched from Yemen yesterday.
Report of an explosion at the oil facilities in Yemen, thought initially to be an Israeli strike, reported by locals to have been an explosion of a tanker truck.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The allegation that Trump may announce the recognition of a Palestinian state was enough to take my breath away. Hard to assess if this is fake news (JPost) or real. If real, this turns nearly all the joint Israeli / US efforts of late on their head. This could also seal rumors of a break between Netanyahu and Trump that’s been reported this past week.
To me it seems that Trumps middle east policy has had some consistency problems over the past month, primarily with engaging Iran and not involving Israeli imput. Also negotiations with other arab states and the push to force to some degree the Abramhamic accords.
From a clear biblical standpoint, a reversal like this puts America in peril. Is Trump tossing Israel under the bus to gain concessions, agreements with arab states in the region?
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region.
The fourth round of Iran-US talks will be held on Sunday in Oman, the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News reported citing a member of Iran’s negotiating team.
OBSERVATION - Very quick change since the meetings today were cancelled. What changed?
IRAN NUCLEAR COUNTDOWN - The removal of B2s and replacement by B52s at Diego Garcia indicates a step down in offensive readiness. A very capable system, the B52 lacks the penetration capability into hostile air zones as well as the ability to carry the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, GBU-57, necessary to hit Iran’s buried facilities. Trump’s guidance system on Iranian negotiations and policy seem to be vacillating, and that is dangerous. Is Trump committed to the prevention of Iran getting the bomb at all costs?
As far as everything else looks, time is short for significant moves by Iran to concede elimination of elements of its nuclear program that can lead to the development of a nuclear weapon.
A lot of the speculation will be ended by next Friday after Trump leaves the region and makes his big announcement.
Misc of Note –
Admittedly, the volume of international action of three wars, and the confusing and conflicting combat reports and geopolitical actions associated with them have pretty much overloaded my analytical capabilities in a way. What I can evaluate has given me significant unease.
- Ukraine: Peace or no peace. Support or no support. Continuation of a largely stagnated front line with Russian having clear control over the deep strategic attack front (drones and missiles) over Ukraine.
- Israel vs islamic fanatics. What the heck is the real story with Trump administration and middle east policy involving Israel? What is the real status of potential strikes against Iran’s nuclear program?
- Pakistan / India potential nuclear conflict
- Massive political scrum here in the US over a wide variety of issues.
It seems that the Trump pause in the action is long over and chaos is rapidly expanding once again. The global and domestic storms are getting closer once again and they are beginning to look even uglier.
Much hangs on Trumps visit to the various gulf states next week. It hopefully will bring clarity to one front burner issue that will directly impact the US - the status of Iran’s nuclear program and changes to the relations with Israel. Ukraine and India/Pakistan are second tier level issues.
If Trump screws up the middle east, things will start unraveling very quickly. Much of Trumps support are pro-Israeli who are anti two state solution. If Trump recognizes a Palestinian state, the giant sucking sound will be his support base leaving him. That will throw much of the US into political chaos. Very dangerous times ahead and would move us into uncharted waters, where there be dragons.
Hatred this old between neighbors has the advantage of familiarity... Each side senses/knows when they're going 'too far'. Let's hope that holds long enough...
The United States Constitution (Article I, Section 6, Clause 1) states that "Senators and Representatives" of Congress "shall in all Cases, except Treason, Felony, and Breach of the Peace, be privileged from Arrest during their attendance at the Session of their Respective Houses, and in going to and from the same".except in cases of Treason, Felony, or Breach of the Peace.
I read this to mean that Rep. LaMonica McIver can Constitutionally and legally be arrested under two or possibly all three of the exceptions.
Whether that will fly politically? Anyone's guess.
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