Threat Matrix 2025

Globalism / Great Reset –

With word that Klaus Schwab is leaving the World Economic Forum, speculation turns to who his successor may be. A leading candidate is close advisor Yuval Harari.

Harari is an almost demonic individual. He is soundly on record in lack of regard for people who don’t qualify as elites. He thinks most of us are “useless” and one day, the elites will have to find things for them to do, or just kill us off.

If there ever was an antichrist figure, Harari ranks within the top of the list.

More at link below
https://www.independentsentinel.com/klaus-schwabs-potential-successor-is-frightening/

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
- “Hands Off 2025” on Saturday April 5th.

Post event reviews of the ‘Hands Off’ protests are still spinning up. The left calls it a smashing success. The right goes the other way. My scanning indicates that some protests over performed, while others underperformed. They bussed protestors from all over to DC, but they failed miserably to reach their 1 million protestor goal. They did manage to hit their goal of about 1500 locations.

One trend I’m seeing are comments from the right that most of these misfits were older than 50 yrs old. Even some of the protestors were complaining of the lack of Gen X and Z at these events.

Interviews of protestors (selectively put to social media) showed many unable to speak clearly on just what they were protesting. Numerous examples of handouts given to ‘help’ protestors in the event they were interviewed - did’t work too well.

Judging from the signs held by these sheeple in my town, they probably couldn’t speak to what they were saying either. Fakebook pages for the town should be interesting today.

Reports of violence were widely scattered. Antifa affiliated groups posted a warning that encouraged people to leave their phones at home to avoid being tracked and to hide or use fake tattoos to make identification more difficult.

Probably one of the biggest problems was traffic interference / blocking.

The turnout totals and the efforts to get those numbers will likely be closely looked at as well as demographics. From what I saw they would be less likely to breakout in BLM kinds of violence - more like vocal supporters than anything else, uneducated on the issues.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Mar 18, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
- Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month, first part of April.

***
Vandalism of Tesla dealerships and individuals vehicles appear to be on the downward trend. If this trend is true, I think one likely reason is that law enforcement is actually arresting and DAs are prosecuting the perps - unlike actions in the past that only got a slap on the wrist at worst. They are facing consequences this time around - felony consequences.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

This weekend will go far to settle the jitters of Wall Street. So far about 50 countries / entities have reportedly gotten in contact with the WH to begin trade negotiations over tariffs.

Will see more as the futures start to be reported.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The Saudi channel Al-Arabiya Al-Hadith reported overnight from sources that the United States transferred two Patriot batteries and a THAAD missile interceptor battery to Israel.

The transfer was made against the backdrop of the US military operation underway in Yemen against the Houthis and against the backdrop of US President Donald Trump’s repeated threats against the Iranian nuclear program.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/406451

OBSERVATION - This report is likely a piece of disinformation. I noted last week that considerable cargo jet / C17 traffic between S Korea and Persian Gulf regions with this same ‘Two Patriot and one THAAD’ moniker. The US already has THAAD in Israel. This whole round of new ‘speculation’ comes after a C5A landed at an Israeli military airfield. ONE C5A - totally incapable of one jump deployment of any of the batteries. My assessment is that it carried additional THAAD missiles to make sure the batteries were stocked up in the event of an Iranian missile attack on Israel. The battery has been active against Houthi missiles of late.

Also see Israel below.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The U.S. Senate in the early morning hours of April 5 approved the budget blueprint to advance President Donald Trump’s agenda after a marathon voting session.

Under the rules of the reconciliation process, which is being used to pass the sweeping package, all amendments must be considered—leading to voting sessions that last well into the night, known as a “vote-a-rama.”

This time was no different, as the long vote series began in the evening on April 4 and continued into the early hours of Saturday. Lawmakers finally advanced the resolution in a 51-48 vote, which fell mostly party lines, with Republican Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Rand Paul of Kentucky both voting against.

https://americafirstreport.com/senate-passes-trumps-agenda-budget-blueprint-after-late-night-voting-session/

OBSERVATION - Bill locks in tax cuts from Trump 45 era. There is movement towards convergence between House and Senate versions.

Illegal Immigration –

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced Saturday that the United States is revoking all visas held by South Sudanese nationals and halting the issuance of new ones, effective immediately.

The move comes amid ongoing frustrations over what Rubio called “the failure of South Sudan’s transitional government to accept the return of its repatriated citizens in a timely manner,” according to a statement he posted on X.

The U.S. Department of State also released a statement on Saturday, saying the action was necessary due to the refusal of South Sudan’s leadership to cooperate in accepting deported citizens.

https://www.lifezette.com/2025/04/state-dept-shuts-down-countrys-entire-visa-program-after-they-refusing-deportees/

OBSERVATION - I expect some economic sanctions coming their way as well.

China –

Japan’s Joint Staff Office reported the People’s Liberation Army Navy Shandong CSG sailed back into the South China Sea on Thursday after participating in PLA drills against Taiwan on Tuesday and Wednesday.

More evidence that China’s blockade exercise against Taiwan has spun down is activity levels are back to ‘normal’ levels. 7 sorties of PLA aircraft and 7 PLAN vessels operating around Taiwan were detected up until 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 5 out of 7 sorties crossed the median line and entered Taiwan’s northern and eastern ADIZ.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 30-40 degree range with rain / showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reported on the combined missile and drone attack this morning.

Shot down:
1/6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
6/8 Kalibr cruise missiles
6/9 Kh-101/55SM cruise missiles
93/109 Shahed drones (40 shot down, 53 lost in location without negative consequences)

8 Tu-95MS bombers launched cruise and air launched ballistic missiles and naval assets in the Black Sea launched the Kaliber cruise missiles

Russia launched ballistic missiles at Kyiv, causing fires in Darnytskyi, Obolonskyi, and Solomianskyi districts. Three people were injured, two of whom were hospitalized. Russian strikes on Kyiv also damaged the office of the FREEDOM TV channel. “This night, Russian troops attacked with ballistic missiles the Ukrainian foreign broadcasting channels FREEDOM and “Dim”, the international editorial office - UATV English, The Gaze, UATV Español, UATVArabic, UATV Português, and the digital editorial office,” the channel’s press service reported.

Explosions were reported in Odesa, Khmelnitsky and Vinnytsia regions, western Ukraine

In Sumy, eight Shahed drones struck industrial sites, damaging administrative buildings, warehouses, and vehicles.

Russian losses per 06/04/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff.

+1330 men
+13 tanks
+20 AFVs
+56 artillery
+4 MLRS

Summary —

One of the heaviest drone/missile attacks in a while, though only moderately so. Drone tactics combined with hard to hit ballistic missiles caused considerable damage.

Fighting on the front appears to be moderately heavy with some reports of Ukraine pushing into Russian territory again.

Russia continues to play games with ‘ceasefire’ talks. This is only confirming Europe’s assessment of putin’s intentions towards Ukraine and other European countries.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- British MPs deported back to England

- Rumors surrounding C5A arrival at Nevatim Airbase in Southern Israel

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Two British MPs who pushed for a boycott against Israel — Abtisam Mohamed and Yuan Yang — landed in the country and were swiftly deported back to the UK upon arrival.

British Foreign Secretary: It is unacceptable, counterproductive, and deeply concerning that two British MPs on a parliamentary delegation to Israel have been detained and refused entry by the Israeli authorities

***
A U.S. Air Force C-5M “Super Galaxy” Strategic Heavy-Lift Aircraft landed at Nevatim Airbase in Southern Israel earlier today (Saturday), close to where the U.S. Army Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) is deployed in the Negev Desert. The flight was likely related to THAAD and/or other air-defense systems in some capacity, possibly transporting missiles to replace those that have recently been expended intercepting ballistic missiles fired by the Houthis in Yemen at Israel.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Hamas and its supporters are claiming an Israeli massacre of medical workers. However, even videos produced by the Gazans clearly show men armed with AK47 style rifles bailing out of the ambulances. Hamas time and again has used ambulances to shuffle troops around in an effort to avoid detection and under the ‘protection’ of an ambulance during times of war.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Lebanese activist Raymond Hakim: Deputy Envoy Ortagus gave Lebanon up to 3 weeks to prove its willingness to disarm Hezbollah.

***
Israeli army: We targeted two Hezbollah members in a raid on the town of Zebqin, south Lebanon.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

US continues daily airstrikes against Houthi targets.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Overall, status of the region remain relatively static. Israel continues to expand its ground operations in Gaza. Lebanon is under increasing pressure to disarm and remove Hezbollah. Houthis continue to try to attack Israel and US naval vessels and receive daily bombing attacks in return.

The biggest issue is the impending action with Iran. Defensive preparations for the expected attack by Iran, either preemptive or retaliatory, are being made by Israel and the US in the region.

Iran –
- May 5th - end of negotiation window

Reuters: Ayatollah Khamenei has put the armed forces of Iran on the highest alert.

***
The IRGC Aerospace Forces have issued ‘fire-at-will’ orders to all Air Defense Units
In case of positive identification of a hostile aircraft, and its intrusion of unmanned aircraft into the sovereign airspace of the Islamic Republic, regional air defense commanders do not require higher up approval to engage the target.
(Middle East Spectator)

OBSERVATION ON THE ABOVE TWO ITEMS - Maintenance of a “Highest” state of alert can be draining of an army if the period is extended. We are still a month out from the opening of a suspected attack window. Extended high alerts wear forces down physically and mentally over time.

***
According to an Iranian official who spoke to Reuters, Iran has issued notices to Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey and Bahrain that any support for a U.S. strike against Iran, including the use of their national airspace, territory or bases by the U.S. military during an attack, would be considered an act of hostility.

OBSERVATION - These threats are similar to those issued last year during the last exchange between Iran and Israel. Iran took no actions against Jordan or Saudi Arabia for their support given to Israel.

This time around the stakes are far higher for Iran and they are more likely to make good on their threats this time around.

Syria -

Israeli official in message to Turkey: Southwestern Syria will be a demilitarized zone; we don’t want Turkish military presence on Israel’s border

Misc of Note –

AMERICA: WOULD WE SEE A REAL-LIFE RED DAWN?

https://1776patriotusa.com/america-would-we-see-a-real-life-red-dawn/

Though stimulating scenario, though I don’t necessarily agree with some of its estimates.

Buckle up - week to be rough on Wall St

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

Remarkably quiet following the Hands Off marches. Increased observations that the crowds in many places were largely white, over 50 and female. If the leftists were looking to mobilize for violence, this demographic would definitely not be on my list go block up and try to get into a fight.

Also, relative silence from the left - no real crowing about the ‘success’ of their march. Interesting.

Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025
- Some economists suggesting the tariff war will trigger a global recession

U.S. oil prices dropped below $60 a barrel on Sunday stateside. Futures tied to U.S. West Texas intermediate crude fell more than 3% to $59.74, their lowest since April 2021.

OBSERVATION - Good time to refill the national storage reserve.
Financial pundits look to oil price drops like this as a harbinger of a global recession, which results in lowered demand for oil.

***
Nasdaq-100 futures down 5.4%, S&P 500 futures down 3.84%

OBSERVATION - Expect a few more rough days on the Dow as overvalued stocks get dumped and things stabilize as more and more countries line up to drop their tariffs against the US.

OBSERVATIONS - WIth the number of nations contacting the US with responses to drop their tariffs for the removal of US tariffs, Stocks should begin to stabilize in seeing that the tariff war is not civilization ending and that in the end, US production and manufacturing will benefit and grow.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Observers continue to note the transfer of potential air-defense assets and other military equipment to the Middle East continues tonight, with a U.S. Air Force C-17A Globemaster lll (RCH1878) and a C-5M Super Galaxy (RCH8030) both originating from Osan Air Base in South Korea, crossing Europe heading towards U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). While another C-5M arrived from the U.S. at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, before likely continuing on to the Middle East. Since March 25th, over 120 U.S. military logistics flights have arrived the region, including C-17s, C-5s, C-130s, KC-135s, and KC-46s.

OBSERVATION - Seems to confirm reinforcements to CENTCOM and not necessarily Israel. Regardless, there is a lot of hardware headed into the region.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Attorney General Pam Bondi has suspended the senior Department of Justice attorney representing the administration in a high-visibility deportation case. Enez Reuveni, the acting deputy director of Justice’s immigration litigation division, was suspended from duty and had his email terminated in a letter from Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche accusing him of failing to “follow a directive from your superiors.” Reuveni is a 15-year veteran of the Department of Justice and was only promoted to acting deputy director of the immigration litigation division two weeks ago.

Accompanying Reuveni on vacation will be his boss, August Flentje, the acting director of the immigration litigation division, who was suspended Saturday for “failure to supervise a subordinate.”

This all flows from the case of Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia, an illegal from El Salvador who entered the US in 2011. He had alleged ties to the Salvadoran MS-13 gang and was ordered deported in 2019. A judge put his deportation on hold because he may have been in danger from a rival gang in El Salvador. Be that as it may, Abrego Garcia was scooped up by ICE in early March and deported to an anti-terrorist prison in El Salvador. His attorneys sued, and on Friday, the judge, an Obama appointee, ordered the government to find and return Abrego Garcia to the US

https://redstate.com/streiff/2025/04/06/bondi-suspends-attorney-who-threw-the-trump-administration-under-the-bus-at-deportation-hearing-n2187549

OBSERVATION - He tried to suck up to the judge, FA’d and FO’d

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Asia-Pacific markets extended their sell-off Monday as fears over a global trade war sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs fueled a risk-off mood.

China’s stock market plunges in its biggest one-day crash since 2008.

Trading stopped at the Tokyo Stock Exchange after Nikkei 225 fell more than 8.3%
Japan’s TOPIX now down over 12%.
Taiwan Bans Stock Market Shorts

Hong Kong stocks close down 13.22%, marking their worst drop since the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

Global Markets Today:
• Hong Kong: -13.2%
• Taiwan: -9.7%
• Japan: -8.3%
• Singapore: -7.4%
•China: -7.3%
•Italy: -6.9%
• Sweden: -6.2%
• Netherlands: -6.1%
• Australia: -6.1%
• France: -6.0%
• Spain: -5.7%
• Germany: -5.6%
• Switzerland: -5.5%
• UK: -4.6%
• Philippines: -4.3%
• Malaysia: -4.0%
• India: -3.8%
• Russia: -3.1%
• Turkey: -2.5%
• Saudi Arabia: +0.5%

OBSERVATION - Asian markets hit solidly because they have the greatest trade with the US and have hid behind tariffs to protect their industries. Post wuhan economy, their businesses continue to hurt - especially China, who’s market likely has been inflated by Xi to try to stabilize the situation.

Countries in Europe may be the longer term holdouts, but as Asia appears to be leading the way to negotiate their way out of Trump tariffs, Europe may have to suck down and capitulate as well. Their economies have been ravaged by the Net Zero push and just don’t have the depth to hold out for a long tariff war.

TRUMP Watch –

President Donald Trump on Sunday said that sometimes you have to take medicine when asked about falling markets, adding that he was not intentionally engineering a market selloff.

OBSERVATION - He knows stocks have been overprices and current levels do NOT reflect the economic health of the US. There will inevitably be bleed off of stock prices no matter what. Getting a stock market correction early in his administration takes pressure off potential democrat economic sabotage as midterms come around next year.

He also see the US economy being strong enough to out last a tariff war that will likely only last for a few weeks to a month.

Japan –

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba says he’s ready to visit the United States to negotiate with President Trump on tariffs

Russia -

Economic Impact –

As the price of oil plummets on fears of global recession, Russia’s unsanctioned shadow fleet of tankers face shrinking margins, threatening Russia’s economy and war effort. Russia has relied heavily upon black-marketing its oil at bargain basement prices to fund its war against Ukraine. Russia has virtually little else with which to get money as the rest of their export efforts, especially military exports, have dried up and reverted to Ukraine war support.

This along with other new sanctions on Russian oil will hurt - a lot.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 30-40 degree range with rain / showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

No Shahed or missile report at the time of writing this.

Russian losses per 07/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1350 men
+13 tanks
+25 AFVs
+31 artillery
+2 MLRS
+28 UAVs
+15 cruise missiles

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Katerynivka village in Donetsk region of Ukraine

Summary —

One item quickly skimmed over yesterday was that some of the Black Sea fleet managed to jump out of protected Russian ports and launch some cruise missiles as part of yesterday’s attack. Is lack of presence in the Black Sea has been large since Ukraine surface drones and other attacks forced them away from Ukraine.

Moderately heavy fighting along the front over night. ISW study indicates that net territory gains for Russia have dropped off significantly over the past few months and latest efforts at renewing use of armored forces is not resulting in increases either.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Small salvo of rockets fired from N Gaza into Israel

- Netanyahu in DC for meetings with Trump and other govt officials.

- Hamas reportedly received $500 million from Iran to conduct its Oct 7 raid on Israel.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu has arrived in the U.S.

Schedule:

Sunday: U.S. Secretary of Commerce

Monday: Trump-Netanyahu meeting

Tuesday: Vice President J.D. Vance

Additional meetings with Senators are also expected to take place.

OBSERVATION - This visit was unscheduled and at the request of the US.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

10 rockets were fired from the N Gaza strip overnight
5 intercepted
Falls/intercept fragments were located at 4 locations.

It’s been a year since such a large barrage was fired from Gaza.

For the first time since the start of the war, an IDF spokesman is directing the evacuation of Deir al-Balah in the center of the Gaza Strip, following the rocket fire this evening towards Ashdod.

Residents of Deir al-Balah, including the areas of al-Zuwayda, al-Awda, a-Salah, a-Sahaba and a-Semah, are told to move south to Khan Yunis.

Israeli fighter jets then launched a series of airstrikes targeting the northern areas of Deir Al-Balah city, central Gaza Strip following the rocket launch.

***
The IDF is preparing to restart the provision of food, fuel, and medicines to Gaza - despite the lack of progress on negotiations to free the hostages or defeat the Hamas terror group, Yediot Aharonot reported.
According to Yediot Aharonot, in recent days the military presented the “humanitarian dimmer,” a measurement which shows how much time is left until the food and energy in Gaza run out. As of now, it is expected that Gaza still has enough supplies to last an entire month.

At the same time, the IDF is preparing to launch a new pilot program, likely near Rafah, in which IDF soldiers will supervise the distribution of aid directly to Gazan civilians and in coordination with international aid organizations. The main reason for this process is the concern of violation of international law, which would try not only the political echelon but the military commanders who operate on the ground as well.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/406510

***
Israel’s Defense Minister, Israel Katz, has unveiled for the first time direct evidence of Iran’s support for Hamas’ plan to destroy Israel.

The intercepted documents reveal that Sinwar and Deif demanded $500 million from the commander of the Quds Force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. The funds were requested to further Hamas’ campaign against Israel and its struggle against the United States. Despite Iran’s difficult economic situation, the head of the Palestinian branch of the Revolutionary Guards, Izadi, agreed to the request, emphasizing that Iran would continue to provide financial support to Hamas because the fight against Israel and the US is Tehran’s top priority.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-77/

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Lebanese media:

“Israel has informed France and the US that it is prepared to renew the war, including an invasion of Lebanon as far as Sidon, north of the Litani River, and carrying out unprecedented airstrikes. Israel has also announced that it will not tolerate Hezbollah remaining as a military force, regardless of its size. Israel has set a target date for renewing its war in Lebanon and sent this in a message through the US and France to the Beirut government.”

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Remaining largely quiet.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

U.S. Operation in Yemen: Sources told the Saudi channel Al-Hadath today that during U.S. airstrikes in Saada, regional supervisor Abu Abdallah al-Hamran was killed.

The sources added that in strikes on the city of Sanaa, a Houthi commander named Abd al-Rahman al-Zarafi was also killed. Another commander, Salah al-Suhaili, was reportedly injured but not killed in the strikes.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas is going to lose more terrain in Gaza because of the overnight rocket attack. This is not a big strategic loss for Israel given that it has taken Hamas over a year to gather 10 rockets from the rubble to fire at Israel.

Continued pressure on the Lebanese govt to disarm and remove Hezbollah from areas south to the Litani River.

IAF targeting of Syrian army bases being looked at by Turkey for occupation has stopped for now.

Houthis continue to get hit and in particular their leadership. They have not been hit this hard or continually in any part of their war in Yemen or even against the Saudis. They likely have dispersed their armaments - as pretty common SOP for these jihadi forces, but they are getting eaten away. There have been no ballistic missile attacks on Israel for several days now, possibly reflecting this.

The main event - Iran - continues to build.

Iraq -

Reuters reports: Some of the most powerful and violent pro-Iranian militias are planning to announce their disarmament in order to avoid a direct confrontation with Trump. 10 sources, including six senior commanders of the militias, including Hezbollah brigades in Iraq, said the Revolutionary Guards “have given them their blessing to make the best decision to avoid being dragged into a confrontation with the United States and Israel.”

OBSERVATION - This is unusual given that these militias are power brokers in the Iraqi govt. I seriously doubt that they will actually ‘disarm’. Takes too much to re-arm later.
Second, I’m not sure just how the would be drug into an US/Israeli confrontation with Iran as long as they didn’t start shooting at us.
Longer term - force protection of Iranian backed militias.

Central / South America General-

Brazil -

Hundreds of thousands Brazilians are taking to the streets of São Paulo to protest against Lula and show support for Bolsonaro.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Many globalist leaders are bemoaning the hits to their plans due to Trump, from cutting off their US funding for social change, global warming and now economic changes being forced by tariffs.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

It has been a while since Democrats have assassinated a Republican president, but that peaceful interlude may be ending soon. You likely have heard about a survey report by the Network Contagion Research Institute and Rutgers University’s Social Perception Lab, which examines the growing tolerance for violence in American society. Or, rather, on America’s Left:

Political violence targeting Donald Trump and Elon Musk is becoming increasingly normalized. Following the July 13, 2024 attempted assassination of President Trump, tolerance – and even advocacy – for political violence appears to have surged, especially among politically left-leaning segments of the population. This pattern builds on a broader trend NCRI identified in two December 2024 reports which analyzed how viral social media narratives were legitimizing political violence, particularly in the aftermath of the UnitedHealthcare CEO’s assassination. The reports found widespread justification for lethal violence – including assassination – among younger, highly online, and ideologically left-aligned users. A spillover effect into oﬄine domains is already occurring, as illustrated by a ballot measure recently submitted in California that is macabrely named “the Luigi Mangione Access to Health Care Act.”

How partial to violence are liberals? These charts indicate that around half of those who describe themselves as left of center (from “slightly liberal” on over) say that assassinating Donald Trump or Elon Musk is at least somewhat justified:

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/04/lets-kill-the-republicans.php

OBSERVATION - Democrats are forming an ‘assassination culture’. This is evident in some ways to the unhinged screeds in various corners of Reddit and other social media sites. The words from democrat leaders are calling for violence, preparing the sheeple mentally to justify violence. The most dangerous is an attempted assassination of the president. For the record, we have some 60K pages released on the Kennedy assassination, but virtually zero on the attempt on Trump’s life in Butler PA.

This is a whole different level of threat as compared to the Floyd/BLM riots

Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025

Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 349.26 points, or 0.91%, to close at 37,965.60. The 30-stock average had fallen more than 1,700 points during its Monday session low. It then swung 2,595 points from low to high, in a record reversal.

This morning U.S. stock index futures are up about 800 points this morning.

OBSERVATION - As I thought, the rush of countries to comply with Trump’s tariff demands - even the aloof EU - has given the stock marketeers a chance to see that the end of the world isn’t happening and yesterday’s stabilization proved it. Now the buy low group is moving forward. The losses stripped a lot of the overvaluation of the market and brought it closer to being coupled once again to actual economic conditions. It still will be a bumpy week as China is digging in and Trump is more than willing to punish it even more. See China below for more thoughts.

***
Fed announced “closed board meeting” yesterday.

***
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó: Hungary opposes EU counter-tariffs on the United States.

European Union says it’s ready to discuss zero-for-zero tariffs with the US.

Trump threatens to raise tariffs on China by an additional 50%

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Observers reportedly monitoring military aircraft activity are continuing to say that large-scale airlift of military assets by the U.S. Air Force Air Mobility Command (AMC) to the Middle East continues. Over a dozen C-5Ms and C-17As arrived in the region throughout the day, a number of which originated from Osan Air Base in South Korea and Okinawa, Japan; both of which have sites that maintain several of the U.S. Army’s MIM-104 “Patriot” Surface-to-Air Missile Batteries.

OBSERVATION - Some of these ‘reports’ sound/read like repeats of previous reports circulating around the inter webs. I don’t discount them entirely since early on it appeared that the US was taking very serious the Iranian missile threats to US bases and host countries in the Persian Gulf region.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The Supreme Court on Monday granted President Donald Trump’s request to vacate a lower court’s ruling barring the administration from using a 1798 wartime immigration law to immediately deport Venezuelan nationals – including alleged members of the Tren de Aragua gang – from the U.S., marking a significant victory for the administration as it advances key immigration priorities.

RELATED - Judge James Boasberg got gutted last night: the Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration can deport illegal aliens, they can invoke the Alien Enemies Act, and there’s nothing he can do to stop it. The little judge got owned, but Boasberg was mulling contempt hearings for Trump officials over the deportation flights, which is absurd. His rulings were vacated, but it seems he is hell-bent on holding this administration in contempt and beyond (via WaPo):

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2025/04/08/the-supreme-court-just-told-judge-boasberg-you-cant-do-that-but-another-issue-has-arisen-n2655161

OBSERVATION - Boasberg is looking at getting himself reversed by a higher court - again - by trying to extract punishment against the Trump administration for contempt.

The 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals has temporarily blocked an injunction issued by Biden-appointed Judge Deborah Boardman, allowing DOGE to regain access to critical government data.

FURTHER OBSERVATIONS - This was a key decision in a line of recent decisions by Appeals courts and the USSC, all heavily leaning against leftist, activist judges and their rulings against Trump’s actions from deportations to DOGE. These recent rulings for Trump are opening his options even wider for his agenda to move forward.

China –

China restricts exports of seven rare earth metals to all countries.

OBSERVATION - This restriction is also associated with China increasing its tariffs by 37% in response to the US. In doing so, China is trying to pressure the rest of the world to fight against the US and Trump. That doesn’t appear to be working given that the countries of the world have so quickly pivoted to meeting Trump’s demands.

Had this taken off like this in Trump 45 time, China would have been in a more commanding position. Post wuhan, China’s manufacturing as well as other sectors have been hurting very deeply. So much so that projected oil / gasoline consumption rates dropped so far down that OPEC kept having to reduce expected production to stabilize prices at higher levels.

The CCP is making easier for the Trump Administration to make the case that we need to wean ourselves off of China. China needs our purchases more than we need theirs at this point and as other nations come on line for zero tariff agreements, sources for many items are becoming available from other countries.

This also highlights another reason why Trump has been pursuing mineral rights deals with Greenland and Ukraine.

And here in the US, massive new finds of strategic metals needing only the go ahead and suppression of the envirowacko to get US production rolling.

North/South Korea –

Unconfirmed reports of a weapons incident on the DMZ with NK personnel entering and SK engaging with small arms fire.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 30-40 degree range with rain / showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

(ISW) It remains unclear why the Russian forces did not conduct any long-range strikes on the night of April 6 to 7, after having done so daily since December 12, 2024.

Overnight, Russia ‘only’ launched 46 Shaheds of which 9 were shot down and another 31 were lost in location or suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 08/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1290 men
+5 tanks
+14 AFVs
+43 artillery
+3 MLRS
+2 AD systems

Ukrainian President Zelensky has publicly acknowledged for the first time that his troops are active in Russia’s Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine.

Summary —

Third night of reduced Shahed activity. Even so, at least 9 drones found their targets.

Moderately heavy combat along the front. Acknowledgement of Ukraine activity in the Belgorod region formally acknowledged. This incursion that has been ongoing for several weeks now is not deeply penetrating like Kursk, but deep enough to cause discomfort to Russian planners. It appear to be an economy of force operation who’s purpose is to interfere with a believed Russian offensive towards Sumy and Kharkiv.

Peace / cease fire talks are still dead.

Europe / NATO General –

France’s aircraft carrier CSG has quickly left the Sea of Oman region near Iran - making it clear it will not be supporting any US / Israeli actions against Iran.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Netanyahu meets with Trump

- Anti-Hamas protests growing again in Gaza

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Israeli source says Israeli army currently controls about 40% of Gaza, after taking over more territory in latest military operations

***
Hundreds of Palestinians in northern Gaza rallied against Hamas for the third consecutive week, according to local reports, chanting slogans labeling the group a “terrorist organization” and demanding an end to its rule.
In the Jabaliya area of northern Gaza, hundreds of demonstrators gathered on Sunday to protest the leadership of Hamas, echoing similar calls made over the past two weekends. Videos shared online show residents chanting, “The message is clear: Hamas is garbage,” and “Hamas is a terrorist organization.”

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-77/

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The IDF says it targeted and eliminated Mohammed Adnan Mansour, Hezbollah’s artillery commander in the Taybeh area of southern Lebanon

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israeli security forces conducted operations in Beit Ummar town north of Hebron

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Regional diplomatic sources told CNN on April 6 that the Yemeni government is preparing for a ground offensive against the Houthis. The offensive would reportedly consist of advances from the south and east and along the western Yemeni coast to take Hudaydah

***
Airstrikes by the U.S. Navy/Air Force targeted several Houthi military sites in and around the capital of Sana’a in western Yemen tonight, resulting in a number of casualties according to local media. Strikes included -

- 5 in Bani Hushaysh in Sana’a.
- 6 in Sanhan in Sana’a.
- 3 on Majzar in Marib.
- 1 on Jawba in Marib.
- 2 new strikes on Kamaran Island in Hodeideh (4 total).

The Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist group has announced the death of Colonel Abdulnaser Al-Kamali, a senior member in the group’s Intelligence and Security Service, who was killed by a recent U.S. strike in Yemen.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Gaza continues to be rolled up by Israeli forces. Hostage / ceasefire talks appear to be dead in the water again. One thing that may be slowing down the Israeli advance is being forced to squeeze ‘refugees’ into an ever decreasing safe area.
Anti-Hamas protests seem to be back on the menu after being suppressed for a period following Hamas killing some of the protest movement leadership and threatening others.

Lebanon, Israel and the US are waiting to see if the Lebanese govt is serious about moving Hezbollah from the south.

Syria sees tough stances by Israel, Turkey and the new Syrian govt on post Assad conditions. Israeli airstrikes on key former Assad facilities has enraged Turkey who expected to waltz in and take things over. See Syria below

Interesting development with the Houthis preparing for essentially a US ground invasion to take its major port. Perhaps psyops on our part making them jittery. The air campaign is so far accomplishing what is needed. Houthis’ haven’t launched a missile in nearly a week and the attacks toward Israel have shifted to drones. There is no tactical gain for the US to launch any kind of ground action at this time.

Timer for Iran continues to tick down.

Iran –
- May 5th - end of negotiation window

Trump announced from the Oval Office following his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, that the United States will begin direct talks with Iran on Saturday, adding that he hopes they will be successful and that it’s in Iran’s “best interest” that the talks are successful.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry denies that its country has agreed to direct talks with the United States.

Three Iranian sources tell the New York Times: Iran and the US plan to meet in Oman on Saturday for indirect talks. According to the report, Iran has conveyed to Washington the message that if the round of talks on Saturday goes well, it is open and ready to hold direct talks.

According to officials familiar with planning for the negotiations, the Iranian delegation for Saturday’s indirect talks with the United States in Oman, is expected to be led by Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi; while the American delegation will be led by U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff. Discussions will happen in separate rooms with a mediator, who will pass notes between the delegations.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1909507892241113130?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - This is Iran’s last chance to negotiate any kind of a nuclear deal with the US. The US continues to pour resources into the region in preparation for a strike by US and Israel on Iran’s nuclear program and the resulting response by Iran. They are about as close to ‘direct’ talks as Iran is comfortable conducting. They will likely get no where fast as key provisions such as the supervised dismantling of the program, confiscation of centrifuges and processed / enriched uranium, etc are elements Iran will refuse to do for any ‘agreement’.

The simple presence of this pseudo-direct talks does show Iran is knowingly facing the barrel of a very big gun and is going to do what ever they can to delay its use.

The next weekend will be time zero for Iran to capitulate - won’t happen. Won’t stop Trump as the build up is ongoing and has what appears to be a pretty set date to kick it off.

Syria -

UNCONFIRMED - Two Western officials told Middle East Eye: Turkey and Israel held talks on establishing a deconfliction line in Syria. Negotiations continued after recent airstrikes on airports and military sites in Syria. Despite public threats, Israel is likely to accept the presence of Turkish military bases in Hama and Palmyra

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