Threat Matrix 2025

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The aircraft carrier that collided with a merchant tanker off the coast of Egypt pulled into Souda Bay, Greece, for repairs, U.S. 6th Fleet announced on Sunday.

The Navy’s Forward Deployed Regional Maintenance Center will assess the repairs needed on USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) following the collision.

“The assessment team includes structural engineers, naval architects, and other personnel from FDRMC and Norfolk Naval Shipyard,” reads a statement from the Navy. They will be supported by ship’s force personnel and local industry partners for the repair effort.”

Truman collided with merchant bulker M/V Besiktas-M off the coast of Port Said at the entrance to the Suez Canal on Wednesday night.

https://news.usni.org/2025/02/16/uss-harry-s-truman-pulls-into-souda-bay-for-repairs-after-collision

***
The newest America-class amphibious assault ship will head to its new home in Japan later this year, USNI News has learned.

USS Tripoli (LHA-7) will switch homeports from Naval Base San Diego to Sasebo, Japan, and become the Navy’s forward-deployed big-deck amphibious warship in the Indo-Pacific, Naval Surface Force said in a Thursday news release.

“The forward presence of Tripoli supports the United States’ commitment to the defense of Japan, enhances the national security of the United States and improves its ability to protect strategic interests,” the release reads. “Tripoli will directly support the Defense Strategic Guidance to posture the most capable units forward in the Indo-Pacific Region.”

In turn, USS America (LHA-6) will shift its homeport to Naval Base San Diego. America has been forward-deployed to Sasebo since December 2019.

https://news.usni.org/2025/02/14/uss-tripoli-moving-to-japan-to-serve-as-forward-deployed-big-deck

POLITICAL FRONT –

Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) said he is drafting articles of impeachment against Judge Paul Engelmayer of the Southern District of New York, who in a ruling last weekend temporarily restricted Musk and DOGE aides from accessing a Treasury Department payment system. Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.) is working on an impeachment resolution against Rhode Island District Judge John McConnell Jr. over his ruling halting the Trump administration’s freeze on federal funding. “We will hold this judge and others who try to stop the will of the people and their elected leaders accountable.”

OBSERVATION - Good for initiative, but there are not enough democrats in the senate willing to vote to impeach. It will put democrats on defensive footing

***
Last week, thousands of govt workers from across the alphabet agencies received their pink slips.

Lawfare against DOGE continues with more court hearings today. Corrupt judges on the take from USAID payouts are now in the cross hairs for their rulings demanding USAID continue funding their grift.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump in the Beast leading the pack at Daytona yesterday. Totally outrageous and the Americans in the stands loving it. NASCAR better get it right after going woke in past years - this is your audience, not the left.

China –

The US Department of State dropped “We do not support Taiwan independence” from its website on Feb. 13, 2025

The State Department’s fact sheet previously affirmed that the US opposed “any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side, does not support Taiwan’s independence, and expects cross-Strait disputes to be resolved peacefully.”

In the updated version, the Trump administration removed the statement that “The US does not support Taiwan’s independence”.

https://x.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1891206451479318902

OBSERVATION - This will seriously stick in China’s craw.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
The Kremlin officially reiterated its claim that Ukraine has no sovereignty, setting conditions for Moscow to claim that Ukraine has no standing to negotiate with Russia or that any agreements reached with Ukraine in the future are invalid.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the teens - 20 range. Mostly fair with some snow showers.

***
European leaders have demanded a place at the negotiating table, but Donald Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has said that European leaders should be “consulted” but not participate in the negotiations. The most important thing is that the US has simultaneously demanded that there should be no American troops to ensure a peace agreement, but it should be European.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force repelled a massive Shahed drone attack. Out of 147 launched, 83 were shot down and another 59 (mostly dummies/simulators) were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 17/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1530 men
+16 tanks
+52 AFVs
+37 artillery systems
+149 service vehicles

Overnight, Ukrainian attack drones successfully struck two major Russian oil installations in Krasnodar Krai.

Early in the evening, seven Ukrainian drones struck the Kropotkinskaya pumping station, the largest on the Caspian Pipeline, reportedly slashing total system capacity.

During the same raid, Ukrainian drones targeted the Ilsky Oil Refinery, reportedly striking the facility.

Summary —

The war is switching to a geopolitical phase. Russia wants to isolate Ukraine and EU from any input. So far it looks like Trump is allowing Russia to play their game and Ukraine and EU are furious. And following Vance’s address in Munich and Sec St Rubio’s comments there is a gap growing on multiple other issues as well.

I’m not sure if this is a ‘don’t throw me in the briar patch’ play or something else and that Trump has some leverage on Russia that he’s holding very close.

Continued very large Sahed drone attacks. Other missiles are not being used to any significant extent.

One wild card Ukraine still has yet to play is the destruction of the Kerch Strait Bridge. They have the capability now.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Deep strikes in Lebanon.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who arrived for a several-day visit to the Middle East, concluded in Jerusalem.

Prime Minister Netanyahu said at the end of the meeting: “There is nothing more important in our talks than Iran. We agreed that Iran will not have nuclear weapons.”

Rubio: “We cannot continue the cycle that has brought us to the same place over and over again. Hamas cannot remain as a military or governmental force, or as a factor that threatens through violence - peace is impossible. Hamas must be eliminated.”

Rubio added: “I want to say to the people of this great country, for all that you have been through and will go through - you are an extraordinary country. You rose from the ashes of a historic low point for humanity, you face threats from all sides and you are an example to the whole world. If there were more Israel in the Middle East, it would be more peaceful and quiet.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

An Israeli drone bombed the vicinity of a civilian vehicle on Rashid Street, northwest of the Nuseirat camp, in the central Gaza Strip

Sky News Arabia: Hamas expressed in a letter to the PLO its readiness to hand over the Gaza Strip to the Palestinian Authority and the government committee to administer Gaza

Neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority will control the Gaza Strip after the war ends, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday in response to a report which claimed Hamas would hand over Gaza to the PA.

“I’m committed to US President Donald Trump’s plan to create a different Gaza,” Netanyahu added.

“It will not be,” the Prime Minister’s spokesperson said of the report, reiterating a similar stance.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-842421#google_vignette

IDF soldiers stationed in the security zone around Gaza report observing Hamas infrastructure crews working in the area and planting explosives. Israeli journalist Almog Boker interviewed soldiers who said terrorists are taking advantage of their access to the zone to lay explosives intended for Israelis.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The Israeli army confirms carrying out an airstrike in the coastal Lebanese city of Sidon this morning, killing a senior Hamas commander. The target of the strike, Mohammed Shaheen, was the chief of Hamas’s operations in Lebanon, according to the military and Shin Bet

The Israeli army confirms carrying out airstrikes deep in Lebanon a short while ago, saying it targeted Hezbollah facilities were activity by the terror group was identified. The Hezbollah sites included rocket launchers and other weapons, according to the military

Qassem: The Lebanese Prime Minister was informed that Israel will strike the Beirut airport runway if the Iranian plane lands.

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem delivered a warning—Israel must fully withdraw from Lebanon by February 18, or face consequences.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Reports of Israeli armor movements in the occupied ‘buffer zone’ east of Golan.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Egyptian Foreign Minister stresses the need for Israel’s complete withdrawal from southern Lebanon

Arab countries will unveil their plan for the reconstruction of Gaza on February 27 in Cairo. This initiative, developed by the Palestinians and handed over to the Egyptians for implementation, will be presented to the leaders of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

A ton of dynamics on all levels going on.

In Gaza, it looks like Israel may continue negotiations for Phase 2, in spite of current outlines that would be totally against its security interests. Also rumors that Hamas is willingly looking to turn control over to the PA - their arch enemy apart from Israel.

I really don’t see Phase 2 getting implemented. IDF is poised to hit Gaza hard once Phase 1 ends. There is a potential for more Phase 1 releases, but it won’t last much past the time limit.

Lebanon, Hezbollah is flexing its muscles against the govt as well as resuming threats towards Israel. It has taken the time to restructure its forces as well as some limited rearming. Hezbollah faces critical supply / support issues lacking Iranian help. Should things get hot again, the Lebanese army will be pushed aside and a non-factor. They are smart enough to stay out of the targeting sights of Israel.

Iran –

Iranian media reports that Lebanon has officially notified Iran that all flights from Iran to Lebanon will be suspended until February 18.

US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz says President Trump is willing to negotiate with Iran, but only if it fully abandons its nuclear program. “All options are on the table,” he warned.

https://x.com/osint613/status/1891164369301426553?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Egypt –

Egypt has been quietly amassing a formidable military presence in the Sinai Peninsula, a move that has sent alarm bells ringing in Israel and beyond. Satellite images and intelligence reports reveal new military bases, the deployment of elite forces, and the presence of Abrams tanks—Egypt’s most powerful battle tanks, previously reserved for elite units.

Israel sees this buildup as a direct and dangerous violation of the 1979 peace treaty, which was meant to ensure that Sinai remained a demilitarized buffer zone. Now, with tensions in the region already at a boiling point, the question arises: What exactly is Egypt preparing for?

A Slow and Steady Build-Up—But Why Now?

Egypt’s justification for its military expansion in Sinai has traditionally been counterterrorism operations against jihadist insurgents. While extremist groups have indeed been active in the region, the scale of this buildup far exceeds what’s needed for anti-terror campaigns. This is not just about policing rogue militants; this is full-scale military mobilization with bases that can only be used for offensive operations.

While Egypt has not fought a large-scale war in decades, its military buildup in Sinai suggests a shift in focus. If a conflict were to break out with Israel, Egypt’s sheer size would present a serious challenge, particularly in a prolonged engagement. However, Israel’s technological superiority, cyber warfare capabilities, and advanced missile defense systems would likely tip the balance in its favor.

https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=7891#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - This is concerning, but I think at this stage is more defensive against a Gazan migration blow out. However, M1’s are not really needed for such an operation - need more ground pounders. As noted above, the Egyptian army is undertrained for an assault on Israel. Modern equipment in a high intensity battlefield against a very trained opponent (Israel) hasn’t worked well for Egypt ever since the founding of Israel in 1948. With the exception of the initial surprise attack in 1973, Israel has soundly defeated Egypt with smaller forces.

Syria -

CENTCOM Forces Kill Senior Operative of Al-Qaeda affiliate Hurras al-Din: On Feb. 15, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Forces conducted a precision airstrike in Northwest Syria targeting and killing a senior finance and logistics official in the terrorist organization Hurras al-Din (HaD), an Al-Qaeda affiliate.

Misc of Note –

A new map has revealed the devastation of a large-scale nuclear attack on American soil.

Every populated city on the East Coast, Midwest, West Coast and South COULD be targeted, killing up to 250 million Americans - about 75 percent of the country’s population, according to the map.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14398381/map-reveals-population-die-wwii-nuclear-attack.html

OBSERVATION - An updated estimation of potential targets and fall out patterns. Worst case scenario by the article. Many other threat and fallout maps on line, many from the cold war era and may be out dated.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

“50501” protests are still appearing in places. They’ve modified their meaning to – 50 states, 50 state capitols, 1 movement (instead of 1 day). Predominantly peaceful and in one report, they did a red light blockage of a main street. They spread the banner across the street at the red light and removed it when it turned green.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025

At-large Trantifa terror cult leader Jack “Andrea” “Ziz” LaSota and his co-member Michelle J. Zajko have finally been arrested.
They were caught in Allegany County, Md. overnight on Feb. 16. Both of them were armed.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1891536504821785033?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

I’ve already pointed this out days ago, but here it comes again.
Lots of confusion and disinformation concerning the deployment of 11 Green Berets from the U.S. Army’s 7th Special Forces Group to Mexico to cross train with the Mexican Navy’s (SEMAR) Special Operations Forces. The U.S. operators, who arrived today, are in Mexico to train Mexican Naval Special Forces at the Specialized Training Center of the Marine Infantry in San Luis Carpizo, Campeche until March 30, 2025. All reports that these units are in Mexico to actively fight the cartel are FALSE. Additionally, bilateral military cooperation between Mexico and the U.S. is extremely common and such training exchanges take place rather often.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Congressional democrats finding their ability to fight the Trump juggernaut increasingly restricted. The senate can filibuster to some extent, but otherwise is cut out of the executive branch operations. Schumer trying to build a lawfare element to the minority democrats, critical since one key element of the Trump purges is the cessation of govt funds to liberal NGOs and other causes which find their way back into the democrat coffers.

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Russia and the US are meeting in Saudi Arabia in preliminary talks on cessation of the Ukraine war.

Illegal Immigration –

In the last 24 hours the US Border Patrol has encountered a total of 229 aliens across the entire southwest border. That is down from a high of over 11,000 a day under Biden. I started as a Border Patrol Agent in 1984 and I don’t remember the numbers ever being that low. President Trump promised a secure border and he is delivering. ~ Thomas D. Homan
US Border Czar

https://x.com/RealTomHoman/status/1891483288398975326

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
Russia is categorically negative about the prospect of European troops appearing in Ukraine, no matter what role they play there, - said Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the teens - 20 range. Mostly fair with some snow showers.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched a massive Shahed drone attack. Out of 176 launched, 103 were shot down and another 67 were supressed by electronic warfare. There is damage in the Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Cherkasy regions.

Russian losses per 18/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General staff

+1170 men
+12 tanks
+12 AFVs
+53 artillery systems
+2 MLRS
+1 AD system
+74 service vehicles

Summary —

Geopolitical games started in Saudi Arabia, leaving Ukraine and EU on the sidelines. Not sure what Trump has up his sleeve. He does have sights on recouping some of the expenses via Ukrainian resources but beyond that he seems to continue to hold his cards close.

Another massive Sahed drone assault over night with just a very few getting thru. Also reports of a few cruise missiles with at least one downed as well. Lowered Russian casualties suggest fighting intensity is maintaining its lower tempo.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- IDF pulls out of most of S Lebanon.

- The bodies of dead hostages may be released by the weekend.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israeli Foreign Minister: We will begin negotiations on the second phase of the prisoner and detainee exchange agreement

Up to 8 Israeli hostage bodies are expected to be returned to Israel by Friday.
2/20: 4 bodies of kidnapped people
2/22: 3 alive hostages
2/27: 4 bodies of kidnapped people
By 3/8: the decade long hostages Abra Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed will be released, along with another 10/7 abductee alive.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The Lebanese Army deployed to several towns and communities in Southern Lebanon last night, following the withdrawal of the Israel Defense Force. The IDF carried out a full-withdrawal overnight from the towns of Aabbasiyyeh, Majidieh, Kafr Kila, Marjaayoun, Odaisseh, Markaba, Houla, Mays al-Jabal, Blida, Mahbib, Maroun al-Ras, Yaron, Bint Jbeil as well as several others near the Lebanon-Israel Border, in compliance of the Ceasefire and observed by the U.S-led Supervision Committee and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

***
Defense Minister Israel Katz in a statement says the IDF will “forcefully” enforce the ceasefire deal in Lebanon and act against any Hezbollah threat, as troops remain in five strategic posts. “Starting today, the IDF will remain in a buffer zone in Lebanon in five strategic outposts and will continue to enforce forcefully and without compromise against any violation by Hezbollah,” he says.

The next phase in the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah went into effect on Tuesday morning. The IDF completed its withdrawal from the Shiite villages in southern Lebanon, where it has operated over the past two and a half months.

Other forces are manning the five forward installations in southern Lebanon that Israel has announced it will not return.

The IDF announced ahead of the withdrawal that the area around the northern border would remain a closed zone.
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated: “As of today, the IDF will remain in a buffer zone in Lebanon in five commanding positions and will continue to enforce with uncompromising force against any violation of the Hezbollah - we are determined to provide full security to all the northern towns.”

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/404096

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Syrian sources announced that the Halakhala military airport, located in the Sweida province in southern Syria, was attacked by the IDF.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Peace plans in Gaza and Lebanon continue to move forward, but potential for sudden ending still loom large.

Though Israel is moving forward with the Phase 2, demands from both sides are major no goes.

In Lebanon, the squishy Lebanese army is doing virtually nothing to disarm and remove Hezbollah forces south of the Litani River as required, bringing some rumored that a coalition force may be needed to accomplish the act.

And in Iran, IRGC is talking tough again about the long promised counter strike against Israel. Yes, I do believe they are dumb enough but Israel’s concessions so far to Hamas and Hezbollah in the arab are a sign of weakness. This may cause them to strike.

Iran –

IRGC Deputy Commander Ali Fadavi announced that Iran will launch its third attack on Israel, Operation True Promise 3, “at the right time.”

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Two U.S. B-52 bombers, escorted by F-15s and allied fighters, carried out a high-stakes mission across nine nations, dropping live munitions and showcasing American force projection. CENTCOM warns: the U.S. is ready to respond to any threat in the region.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Kash Patel advances through procedural hurdle in the Senate just now.
Next up, cloture. Then, FINAL vote Thursday

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russian and American officials met in Saudi Arabia for bilateral talks about the war in Ukraine on February 18, but Russia continues to display no indications that it is prepared to make any meaningful concessions on Ukraine as assessed by Western intelligence and US officials

***
NBC reported on February 18 that four Western intelligence officials and two US congressional officials stated that intelligence from the US and unspecified close American allies shows that Russian President Vladimir Putin still wants to control all of Ukraine and that his goals “remain maximalist.”

One congressional official stated that there is “zero” intelligence showing that Putin is interested in a “real peace deal right now.” Intelligence officials stated that Putin has no plans to withdraw troops from Ukraine or to pull any personnel or equipment from western Russia.

The six officials stated that Putin may agree to a ceasefire and peace deal in order to give the Russian military time to rest and reconstitute, and there is an idea among Western officials that Putin may “go through the motions” of negotiations in order to see what concessions he can get and to reintegrate Russia back into the global community.

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1892040830099071219?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the teens - 20 range. Mostly fair with some snow showers.

Zelensky accuses Trump of living in a “disinformation space,” a day after the US president falsely accused Ukraine of starting the war with Russia

Zelenskyy: - Türkiye has played crucial role in terms of territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine; - I certainly believe that any negotiations to put end to this war would yield positive results; - Peace talks should be conducted with involvement of Türkiye, USA, and UK; - Türkiye is and should be one of those countries involved, and I am grateful for Türkiye’s constructive role

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Shahed attacks have become larger and larger. Overnight, Ukraine’s Air Force repelled another drone attack. Out of 167 launched, 106 were shot down and another 56 drones/simulators were suppressed by electronic warfare. Mainly the Odesa region suffered from the attacks.

Russian losses per 19/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1300 men
+19 tanks
+23 AFVs
+72 artillery systems
+3 MLRS
+4 (!) AD systems
+146 service vehicles

Ukrainian UAV were active overnight, hitting the Syzran oil refinery overnight, confirmed by locals and officials. The refinery, with a capacity of 8.9M tons/year, was previously targeted in March 2024. After the strike, operations were halted, with the AVT-6 unit damaged.
Multiple major fires could be seen rising from the complex, one of Russia’s largest refineries, after the strike.

Summary —

Politics dominate the war as it continues to appear that Trump has essentially cut Ukraine and EU out of the initial talks. Zelenskyy scrambling to gain allies to support his legitimacy as president.

Russia continues to throw large numbers of Shahed drones at Ukraine, with very little success at reaching targets - even with this saturation technique.

Russian continues to fight at a lower tempo than last month.

Europe / NATO General –

The EU has just agreed a new sanctions package on Russia. The 16th since the full scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago. Formally adopted by EU foreign ministers on Monday

France to convene second urgent meeting on Ukraine with other Europeans, Canada. Countries invited are Norway, Canada, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, the Czech Republic, Greece, Finland, Romania, Sweden and Belgium, per Reuters

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- IAF strikes targets in Syria and Lebanon.

- Phase 2 hostage negotiations continue to move forward on shaky ground.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israel has laid out strict conditions for the second phase of the hostage deal: Gaza must be completely demilitarized, Hamas and all other terror groups must be removed, and Israel will not support any plan that hands control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority.

Hamas, unsurprisingly, refuses to give up control. Meanwhile, IDF forces are massing near Gaza, with military equipment flowing into the area in preparation for a potential full-scale re-entry. Senior officials say if talks fail, it won’t take long before the IDF is back inside.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Lebanese media report an Israeli drone strike targeted a vehicle in the outskirts of Ayta ash Shab in southern Lebanon. This would be the first Israeli airstrike in Lebanon since yesterday’s nearly complete withdrawal of Israeli forces

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli aircraft launched raids on military targets in the Sa’sa’ area in southern Syria, while artillery shelled residential areas in Daraa, causing damage to infrastructure.
Israeli army: We destroyed weapons belonging to the former Syrian regime in southern Syria

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemns Israel’s raids on UNRWA-operated schools in occupied East Jerusalem, calling them a violation of international law, says UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Gaza and Lebanon peace continue on increasingly shaky ground. At this stage, “peace” may hold for a little longer. Both Netanyahu and Trump seem to hint that things may break bad for Hamas in the near future.

Turkey –

Türkiye’s President Erdogan - We reaffirm our support for territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine; - We’re ready to provide any support to end this war in a peaceful way; - This war, which has cost many lives, must end; - We’re ready to do our part for maritime security in the Black Sea

- We’ve always advocated for establishment of peace negotiated between Russia and Ukraine; -Thanks to our diplomatic correspondences between the parties, we realised the Black Sea Grain Corridor Deal; - In last the years, we’ve met with the representatives of Russia and Ukraine at various levels; - Mr. Trump also stated war should end through dialogue; - As for the likely peace talks to be held by US, Russia and Ukraine, I believe that Türkiye will be very suitable host for such talks

OBSERVATION - Turkey continues to position itself as not only a regional power house but an international leader as well.

Mexico -

Reports that CIA airborne assets are collecting intel on Mexican cartels

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

Scattered anti-Trump, anti-Israel protests reportedly planned for various cities across the nation as we approach the weekend. No evidence of violence detected, though local vandalism and violence can occur depending on Antifa participation levels.

As always, stay tuned to your local news and avoid protest areas if possible.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025

U.S. State Department under President Trump has officially designated the following as Foreign Terrorist Organizations:

- Tren de Aragua
- MS-13
- Sinaloa Cartel
- Jalisco New Generation Cartel
- United Cartels
- Northeast Cartel
- Gulf Cartel
- Michoacán Family

OBSERVATION - Room for a few other cartels. With this designation, just how soon might things become kinetic along the southern border?

Currently, Mexico completely refuses to allow US forces/agents from operating in Mexico.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.

U.S. single-family homebuilding fell sharply in January amid disruptions from snowstorms and freezing temperatures, with a rebound likely to be limited by higher costs from tariffs on imports and elevated mortgage rates.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/single-family-housing-real/2025/02/19/id/1199654/

OBSERVATION - Said it many time, the housing market has always been looked at as one of the key sectors to pull the nation out of an economic waste land. That isn’t happening yet.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

For the second time this week, 2 U.S. Air Force B-52H Long-Range Strategic Bombers launched from RAF Fairford, as well as at least 4 KC-135R Aerial-Refueling Tankers launched from RAF Mildenhall, are currently heading South across Europe towards the Mediterranean, likely on another Bomber Task Force Mission as a “Show of Force” in the Middle East.

POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.

Democrats are running out of ways to counter the Trump juggernaut. Lawfare may have hit the high-water mark (see below) and democrats in congress are at unbelievable low favorably levels while republicans are at their highest. The effort to thwart Patel’s approval to the FBI is set to fail today, meaning that the key, controversial appointments are in the bag for Trump.

What is the democrat way forward? The biggest is the March 15th budget funding deadline. Schumer (and too many RINOS) want desperately to have another CR to continue the spendathon of previous years - a back door way to restore their kick backs that have hit the chopping block of DOGE. The momentum of DOGE in exposing the vast amount of fraud, waste and abuse may give the congressional republicans back bone enough to pass a far cleaner bill. The ball is really in Schumer’s court where he could force a filibuster and numerous gyrations to try to force democrat grift into the bill. Schumer and other democrats are toying with trying to force a govt shut down that they can blame on republicans. That maneuver might have worked for them in the past, however the political dynamics have seriously flipped on them. Again, lead by DOGE, many more americans are awake to the gluttonous spending lead by democrats and may see an increased WELCOME to a shut down. Democrats could see a further erosion of its limited favorability rating to boot.

Much of the hope of the left is growing around outside leftist/communist organization attempting to gain support for more lawsuits, job walkouts and policy sabotage. This effort is even looking down the road to more aggressive and violent protesting once winter melts away this spring and summer. Again, the political dynamic has shifted and this action may well back fire on them.

The danger levels are rising as the democrats manage to try to pull a more cohesive defensive operation together - in this case lead by the radical left/progressives - who are willing to go way out to confront Trump.

***
Kash Patel FINAL vote Thursday
Here’s the Thursday plan
11am ET - final procedural (cloture) vote
1:45pm ET - CONFIRM

***
68% of Americans disapprove of the job Democrats are doing in Congress, only 22% approve - Quinnipiac poll
Congressional Republican approval, meanwhile, sits at 40% approve to 52% disapprove.

OBSERVATION - No wonder James Carville is smashing his bald head against the wall. These are hideous numbers for the democrats - especially from the left leaning Quinnipiac pollsters.

***
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem directed the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to use polygraph examinations to crack down on unauthorized contact with media and nonprofits. Noem said DHS leaks have negatively impacted border and interior immigration enforcement.

***
(FO) Washington D.C. Federal Judge Christopher Cooper questioned the authority of courts to force the Trump administration to pause mass firings at federal agencies, during a hearing yesterday in a lawsuit brought by federal employee unions.

The federal employee unions said they turned to the court due to the Merit Systems Protection Board’s and Federal Labor Relations Authority’s lack of power to quickly stop government-wide firings.

Federal Judge Tanya Chutkan denied a request from 14 Democrat state Attorneys General to block the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) from accessing government systems and firing employees.

OBSERVATION - As FO notes, these are key breaks in the democrat lawfare attempts - especially rabid anti-Trumper Chutkan.

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Europe continues to be in a frenzy over recent comments by Trump et al regarding Ukraine.

Illegal Immigration –

President Donald Trump has ordered his agencies to scrub their regulations and spending programs to ensure illegal migrants are not getting taxpayers’ funds via hidden channels.

Trump signed the Executive Order titled “Preserving Federal Benefits for American Citizens” late on Wednesday.

The policy could save tens of billions of dollars per year. But the full economic impact will not be known for many months because Trump’s deputies must find the aid programs, change policies to stop some funding. fend off lawsuits, and then gradually rewrite regulations to stop more funding.

Democrats will furiously protest Trump’s aid cutoff because the cash flows through their vast and vital farm teams of supporters at government agencies and non-profits.

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2025/02/19/trump-orders-agencies-block-aid-welfare-illegal-migrants/

OBSERVATION - That is the bigger bottom line - cutting off the democrat cash flow.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the teens - 20 range, warming to the 30s by the end of next week. Mostly fair with some snow showers.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Last night, Russia launched another massive missile & drone attack on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, damaging production facilities, the Ministry of Energy confirms.

Overnight - 158/161 Shahed drones (80 shot down, 78 surpassed by electronic warfare.

In addition, Russia launched 14 Kh-101/55CM, Kalibr and Iskander-K cruise missiles and Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles. The results of these attacks are not made public. However independent reports indicate natural gas facilities and infrastructure were targeted.

Russian losses per 20/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1190 men
+14 tanks
+14 AFVs
+63 (!) artillery systems
+3 MLRS
+6 (!) AD systems
+136 service vehicles

Summary —

Ground war continues to slow down for Russia as reported attacks against Ukraine are also down - as reported by Ukraine. Lowered personnel losses, but sustained high losses in equipment plague Russia.

Russia included more modern missiles in their attack mix and apparently had some success - noting the lack of Ukraine details and apparently none being shot down. However, 14 missiles is a very low number compared to past usage, leaving some to wonder if there are other reasons for the lack of use over the past couple months.

Much focus continues on the geopolitics of the Trump initiative.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Bodies of 4 murdered Israeli hostages, including 2 children, released by Hamas.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Coffins apparently containing the bodies of four slain Israeli hostages are handed over by Hamas to the Red Cross at a stage set up by the terror group in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis, in front of a large crowd of Palestinians. The Red Cross has delivered the bodies to Israeli army and they are back in Israel. Two of the bodies were that of small children, another their mom.

Following Hamxs’ grotesque handover “ceremony,” Israel lodged a protest with mediators and the Red Cross, stating the event was “contrary to understandings,” reports @ynetalerts.

The IDF says the four coffins transferred to them underwent a screening to ensure they were not booby-trapped.

The IDF also broke the locks on the coffins to avoid any delays at the Abu Kabir forensic institute, where the bodies are being brought for identification. Keys supplied by Hamas didn’t fit the locks.

Hamas will release six living Israeli hostages this Saturday, according to statements by Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya and Israeli officials on Tuesday.
Out of the original 33 hostages slated for release during the first phase of the ceasefire, 14 remain in captivity, of whom eight are believed to be dead.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Gaza Strip: Several suspects crossed the perimeter in violation of the ceasefire agreement. Israeli army forces fired in response, and according to reports, one of the suspects was killed and several were injured

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israeli security forces raid numerous locations across the area arresting terror leaders.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Argentine President Milei proclaimed a national day of mourning for the deceased Bibas Israeli hostages, released today from Hamas captivity. They held Argentinian citizenship as well as Israeli.

Jordanian King, during his reception of a delegation from the US House of Representatives, reiterates his country’s rejection of any attempts to displace Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The anger in Israel towards the brutal murder and despicable display of handing over the bodies is growing to volcanic proportions. Hamas fails to realize that they will not be facing a chained Israeli military this time around. Trump is willing to bring ‘hell’ against them. In the case of this release, the Bibas were captured by Gazan “civilians” and held by these ‘civilians’.

Efforts seem to be to accelerate the Phase 1 hostage releases, with some claiming that it will accelerate Phase 2 talks and agreement. In the face of how Hamas has treated the hostages, and their demands on Israel, I can’t for the life of me see Israel compromising further. They are mustering the forces on the Gazan border and will be able to quickly retake territory they’ve just pulled back from as well as having a large force to penetrate into the ‘no go’ zones biden laid out last year.

Israel could unleash hell within the next few weeks, once the timeline for Phase 1 is past and evidence of no movement on Phase 2. Will it Klingon levels of vengeance?

Lebanon appears to remain at a status quo. Hezbollah continues to utter threats, but it is all talk at the moment. Israel is far more focused on Gaza, particularly with the US involved in the monitoring of the Lebanese response to the current ceasefire.

Iran –

(FO) Iranian state media says the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Ground Force is running its “largest operation drill” in southwestern Iran near the Iran-Iraq border. The drills cover maneuver warfare, electronic warfare, large-scale armored warfare, missile, drone, and artillery attacks.

Rumint. Iran planning to use this exercise to strike the Kurdistan region in Iraq.

Syria -

The Syrian Preparatory Committee does not plan to include the Kurdish-majority Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) or its political wing, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), in the National Dialogue Conference.

OBSERVATION - Turkey is leaning on Syria to keep them out. Any established legitimacy would place Turkey at odds with its installed govt in Syria.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

Again, scattered protests against Trump and DOGE, with some against Israel scattered across the country. Possibility exists of some localized violence and vandalism. Keep abreast of your local news and avoid protest areas

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The captain of a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier that slammed into a ship near Egypt last week was yanked from the position “due to a loss of confidence in his ability,” the US Navy said Thursday.

Capt. Dave Snowden was “relieved” of his job at the helm of the USS Harry S. Truman and temporarily reassigned following the wild Feb. 12 crash in the Mediterranean Sea, according to the military branch.

“The U.S. Navy holds commanding officers to the highest standard and takes action to hold them accountable when those standards are not met,” the Navy said in a statement.

https://nypost.com/2025/02/20/us-news/commanding-officer-relieved-of-duty-after-uss-harry-s-truman-aircraft-carrier-crashed-into-merchant-ship-near-egypt/

POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.

Patel in as FBI chief.

With all of Trumps picks in as Cabinet, expect the heat to be turned up against democrats by an order of magnitude. Criminal actions being uncovered by DOGE and earlier appointments are going to be addressed and arrests made.

In the case of Patel - he still has to put a rebellion down in the FBI and get good guys in. Once that is accomplished the clean up will move forward.

***
Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., will not run for re-election in 2026 and will instead retire, the longtime senator announced Thursday.

OBSERVATION - Good riddance. He’s done more to hurt the republican party than many. Only good thing - broken clock syndrome - was he putting the brakes on the nomination of Garland for USSC.

Illegal Immigration –

Numbers of illegal crossings at the border continue at multi-decade lows.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russia positioning itself as the victor of the Ukraine war for domestic purposes.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the teens - 20 range, warming to the 30s by the end of next week. Mostly fair with some snow showers.

***
The Trump administration has given Ukraine an “improved” draft for a minerals agreement, after Zelensky infuriated President Trump by rejecting his initial offer, a Ukrainian official, a U.S. official and three sources with knowledge tell Axios

Trump also edging Ukraine out of further support.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 160 Shahed drones and 2 Iskander-M/KN-23 missiles. A total of 87 were shot down, and another 70 were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 21/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1280 men
+12 tanks
+18 AFVs
+52 artillery systems
+4 MLRS
+2 AD systems
+143 service vehicles

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Nadiyivka and Novosilka villages of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Summary —

US is pushing Ukraine further aside as talks move forward with Russia. Russia for its part is making the most of the action by crowing that it has won a major victory.

Ukraine is corrupt, but putin is an evil despot himself and I hope that whatever deal Trump has in mind doesn’t allow Russia to continue to be a threat to eastern Europe. There has to be a big hammer, but not seeing it at this time.

On the ground, Russia made some minor territorial gains and continues to saturate the air with Shahed drones.

Europe / NATO General –

French President Emmanuel Macron said he wants the European Union to boost its military autonomy and alleviate reliance on the US over the next five to 10 years — responding to a long-running demand from Washington

***
Another fiberoptic cable between Finland and Germany has been destroyed off the Swedish coast. The Swedish authorities say they suspect “undersea sabotage” near the Swedish island of Gotland.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Shiri Bibas is still missing… Hamas sent a random body.

- Attempted terror attack in Tel Aviv and surrounding failed.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

IDF Spokesman: After completing the identification process by the National Center for Forensic Medicine in cooperation with the Israel Police, IDF representatives informed the Bibas family that their loved ones, Ariel and Kfir Bibas, of blessed memory, have been identified.

According to the assessment of the professional authorities, in accordance with the intelligence available to us and forensic findings from the identification process, Ariel and Kfir Bibas, the late, were brutally murdered in captivity in November 2023, by terrorists.

During the identification process, it was found that the additional body received was not that of Shiri Bibas, and no match was found for any other abductee. It is an anonymous body without identification.

This is a very serious violation by the Hamas terrorist organization, which is required by the agreement to return four dead abductees. We demand that Hamas return Shiri home along with all of our abductees.

The late Ariel Bibas, four years old at the time of his death, and Kfir Bibas, ten months old at the time of his death, were kidnapped with their mother, Shiri Bibas, from their home in Nir Oz. Yarden Bibas, the father of the family, went out to protect them and was kidnapped before Shiri and the children were kidnapped. Yarden was returned as part of the agreement to return the kidnapped on February 1, 2025.

We share the deep sorrow of the Bibas family at this difficult time and will continue to make every effort to return Shiri and all the kidnapped as soon as possible.

https://x.com/osint613/status/1892713693378429406?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem to Al-Arabiya TV: There may have been an unintended mistake due to the mixing of bodies due to the bombing

***
Hamas publishes list of six hostages to be released tomorrow, at least for now, according to the plan:
Abra Mengistu
Hisham al-Sayed
Omer Wankert
Omer Shem Tov
Eliya Cohen
Tal Shoham

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Initial reports indicate that an Israeli strike targeted a truck carrying weapons from Syria into Lebanon at a border crossing in the Wadi Khaled area of Lebanon. Additional strikes have been reported elsewhere along the border as well.

Israeli army: Our aircraft tonight raided “transportation routes on the Syrian-Lebanese border used by Hezbollah in an attempt to transfer combat equipment into Lebanon.”

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

As of this moment, it is known that 15 buses were scheduled to explode in the Tel Aviv area, along with five suicide bombers who planned to detonate themselves on the light rail. According to security sources, this terrorist infrastructure originated in Judea and Samaria.

Plot discovered when three buses exploded and two other undetonated bombs were found in two other buses

Examination of the explosive devices were reportedly set to explode simultaneously tomorrow morning causing hundreds of casualties! The initial investigation indicates that the charges are all identical and that they all have a timer set to activate tomorrow. However, it appears the terrorists set the bombs on the three devices that exploded yesterday to PM rather than AM.

Another bomb was just found in the light train in Petach Tikva - east of Tel Aviv

Israeli Defense Minister Katz spoke from Tulkarm camp in the northern West Bank: “We are in a war against terrorism and we will win here, in Gaza and everywhere”

Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the IDF to increase the intensity of activity against the refugee camps in Judea and Samaria in response to the attempted attacks in the Tel Aviv area: “We will pursue the terrorists to the bitter end and destroy the terror infrastructure - those who give shelter to terror will pay a heavy price”* “In light of the serious terrorist attacks attempted in the Tel Aviv area by Palestinian terror organizations against the civilian population in Israel, I have instructed the IDF to increase the intensity of activity to thwart terrorism in the Tulkarm refugee camp and in general in the refugee camps in Judea and Samaria. We will pursue the terrorists to the bitter end and destroy the terror infrastructure in the camps that serve as a frontline for the Iranian axis of evil. Residents who give shelter and shelter to terror will pay a heavy price.”

Following the attempted combined IED attack the IDF is deploying 3 additional battalions to reinforce the Judea and Samaria region starting tomorrow morning.

Hamas Al-Qassam Brigades – Tulkarm Battalion took credit for the aborted terror attempt -

“The martyrs’ revenge will not be forgotten as long as the occupier remains on our land… The Joint Operations Room of the Tulkarm Battalion.”

Source: Al Jazeera

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

The Grand Mufti of Dubai, Ahmed al-Haddad, reportedly stated after watching the scenes of dead Israeli babies being paraded in coffins in Gaza:

‘Hamas has brought shame to Islam on a level never seen before.’

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Two VERY big developments. First, following the abominable handover of dead Israelis, Shiri Bibas was not returned and a random body sent instead. Hamas claims bombing killed all of them. Forensic reports indicate the children were strangled and Hamas likely swapped out Shiri Bibas to hide the violent acts done to her prior to her death.

It was bad enough that the Bibas family was kidnapped by Gazan CIVILIANS, then to be brutally murdered and the macabre ceremony conducted by Hamas, but failure to release the body.

The second development was the discovery of the attempted terror bombing that was uncovered last night. The terrorists claiming the act are a Hamas supporting element in the Tulkarm “refugee” camp, northern Judea and Samaria region. This could have killed dozens and injured hundreds during the morning commute. Hamas and Iran have been working to make Judea and Samaria into another ‘front’ in the war against Israel. They have FA and are about to find out and these ‘refugee’ camps likely will be turned into rubble like much of Gaza.

Is is suspected that the bombs were created in Iran and transferred to smugglers in Syria / Jordan and brought in to Judea and Samaria that way. They were uniform in construction.

The fact that a Hamas element on the same day of the botched release of hostage bodies is not lost to the Jewish leadership.

Six living hostages are to be released tomorrow. Hamas will likely make a spectacle of it again. With this release, the end of the Phase 1 agreements is growing close to an end. The appalling condition of the released, living hostages and the disrespect to the dead, that even arab nations have condemned, make further concessions from Israel hard to fathom. This has displayed Hamas AND the so called civilians of Gaza, as the blood thirsty barbarians that they are. They lost a lot of global support with this.

When Israel drops the hammer, it will be massive. Dare say ‘biblical’ proportions.

Iran continues threats towards Israel, many suggest they are intended to try to dissuade Israel from another strategic strike against Iranian facilities - principally their nuclear development sites. US B-52 flights over the past couple of days have served as a reminder that other power can be quickly projected against Iran.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Trump has fired Air Force Gen. Charles Q. Brown as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Friday. Chief of Naval Operations Lisa Franchetti has also been fired, shortly after General Brown was let go. Gen. James Slife, the Air Force’s No. 2 officer is gone as well.

In addition to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Chief of Naval Operations, and Vice Chief of Staff for the Air Force, U.S. President Donald J. Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have also removed the Judge Advocate Generals (JAGs) from the Army, Lieutenant General Joseph B. Berger III; Navy, Rear Admiral Lia M. Reynolds; and Air Force, Lieutenant General Charles L. Plummer.

The new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs is Air Force Lt. Gen. John Dan “Razin” Caine – an extraordinary move since Caine is retired, according to an Air Force official, and is not a four-star general.

Trump’s endorsement of Caine - “During my first term, Razin was instrumental in the complete annihilation of the ISIS caliphate. It was done in record setting time, a matter of weeks. Many so-called military “geniuses” said it would take years to defeat ISIS. General Caine, on the other hand, said it could be done quickly, and he delivered.”

OBSERVATION - This is the start of the culling of the pampered princes (and princesses) in the Pentagon. This is not without precedent - 0bama eliminated most of the solid generals during his first term, allowing these substandard generals to rise into place.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

Another coronavirus feared to be powerful enough to spread through humans has been discovered in China. In scenes eerily reminiscent of the beginnings of Covid, researchers at the infamous Wuhan Institute of Virology detected the new strain living within bats.

HKU5-CoV-2 is strikingly similar to the pandemic virus, sparking fears that history could repeat itself just two years after the worst was declared over. The new virus is even closer related to MERS, a deadlier type of coronavirus that kills up to a third of people it infects. Virologist Shi Zhengli, known as ‘Batwoman’ for her work on coronaviruses, led the discovery, published in a top scientific journal.

Tests showed HKU5-CoV-2 infiltrated human cells in the same way as SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind Covid. Sharing their discovery in the journal Cell, the Beijing-funded researchers admitted it posed a ‘high risk of spillover to humans, either through direct transmission or facilitated by intermediate hosts.’

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/galleries/article-14422269/New-coronavirus-pandemic-potential-discovered-China.html

OBSERVATION - After a year of fear mongering over bird flu (and the massive biden era orders to exterminate flocks, giving us unbelievable egg prices), the workers at wuhan appear to have concocted a new virus more lethal. Biowarfare could be on the offing, given the massive damage to individual’s immune systems caused by the mRNA ‘jab’ of the first virus. That may have been a trial run for this one.

***
See following link with info that the mRNA jab has damaged human immune systems.

https://pjmedia.com/benbartee/2025/02/22/bombshell-study-covid-mrna-shots-cripple-immune-system-possibly-permanently-n4937227

POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.

ATF Chief Counsel Pamela Hicks was shown the door this week - lead the largest push on anti-2d rights in recent memory.

***
FBI Director Kash Patel followed up a fiery introductory speech on Fridaywith equally fiery action. He ordered 1,500 staff and agents to be transferred from its Washington, DC, headquarters to various locations across the nation. Some 1,000 agents and staff will be reassigned to cities the Trump administration has designated higher crime locations where they can fight crime rather than engage in political shenanigans. Another 500 staff will be reassigned to Huntsville, Alabama, which is the DC equivalent of exile to Siberia.

https://redstate.com/streiff/2025/02/21/kash-patel-orders-1500-fbi-agents-and-staff-out-of-the-building-on-day-one-n2185870#google_vignette

***
(FO) Washington, D.C. District Court Judge Amir Ali said the Trump administration is not complying with his order to unfreeze U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) spending, but declined to hold the Trump administration in contempt.

The Department of Justice told the court the Trump administration was in compliance, and the order allowed the Trump administration to enforce its rights on USAID contracts including terminating the contracts.

***
The Department of Justice (DOJ) said that statutory protections that shield the President from removing administrative law judges are unconstitutional, and the DOJ will no longer defend those protections in court.

***
(FO) A White House official said President Donald Trump could sign an executive order this month that will direct the Department of Education to wind down functions using existing executive authorities. The order is also expected to direct the Department of Education to analyze laws that would allow the Trump administration its functions to other agencies and close the department.

***
(FO) Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Chair Andrew Ferguson said the FTC will begin a public comment period on “big tech censorship” on technology platforms.

***
The Senate voted 52-48 to bring a budget reconciliation bill to the Senate floor. The Senate bill would increase border and immigration spending by $175 billion, and defense spending by $150 billion.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Dec 18, 2024

Apple caved in to the EU and granted access to secured data files. The access is reportedly only to European registered Apple products using the iCloud. There is debate as to whether or not this access will impact other users like those in the US.

China –

(FO) The trio of Chinese ships reported earlier this week conducted live fire drills 340 nautical miles off the coast of Sydney, Australia, causing Australian pilots to divert flights en route to New Zealand. Australian Defence Minister Marles claims that China gave no warning to the Australian or New Zealander governments but broadcast on shorter range radio that they would conduct live fire drills. This follows China’s threatening one of their maritime patrol aircraft with flares last week and now conducting dangerous maneuvers near civilian aircraft.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
Closing in on the anniversary of the war in Ukraine. Russian forces currently occupy around 20 percent of Ukraine. At the current rate of advance, it would take Russian forces over 83 years to capture the remaining 80 percent of Ukraine, assuming that they can sustain massive personnel losses indefinitely.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the teens - 20 range, warming to the 30s by the end of next week. Mostly fair with some snow showers.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 162 Shahed drones into Ukraine, 82 of them were shot down and another 75 were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 22/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1140 men
+15 tanks
+9 AFVs
+66 artillery systems
+139 service vehicles

Summary —

Russia made some minor advances in the northern part of the front.

What I’m watching is the potential for a collapse of the line now that word is probably reaching the front that the US is no longer going to be actively suppling the war effort after the tens of billions in aid biden sent their way before he left office. Europe is scrambling to make up the difference, but they’ve let their stocks diminish and have little left at this stage.

Russia, OTOH, is hurting on the front as the casualties continue. Not sure how well they could exploit a Ukraine collapse on any of the current front.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- The real body of Shiri Bibas returned

- Forensics indicate the Bibas family was strangled by hand, then their bodies beaten to simulate a bombing demise.

- Hamas released 6 hostages without incident.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Hamas’ military wing handed over the body of Shiri Bibas to the Red Cross yesterday.
Israeli official confirms: The coffin of Shiri Bibas was handed over to the Red Cross and the results of forensic autopsy is that it is her.

The results on her and her children are incredibly brutal. All three were strangled to death by hand, then their bodies pummeled to simulate that they were killed by bombs about a week after Oct 7th.

***
Released hostages are in safe, Israeli hands

Abra Mengistu
Hisham al-Sayed
Omer Wankert
Omer Shem Tov
Eliya Cohen
Tal Shoham

***
Hamas announced Saturday that it is prepared to complete the second phase of the hostage deal in a single exchange, setting conditions that include a permanent cease-fire, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the release of Palestinian prisoners.

As discussions over a potential second phase of the cease-fire and hostage release continue, Israeli officials have outlined their own demands, including Hamas relinquishing control of Gaza, demilitarization of the territory, exile of top Hamas leaders and no transfer of control to the Palestinian Authority.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkxs11qvcye

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Security remains very tight in northern Samaria and Judea following the failed terror attack of a couple days ago.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Secretary-General of the Arab League: There will be no peace or security for one party without the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on the borders of June 4, 1967, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas trying to do an all or nothing hostage swap, but its demands are very high and any resemblance of good will wiped away with recent hostage releases. I suspect it is a desperate gamble and that they see the blood in the eyes of the IDF.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Pope Francis is in critical condition following a prolonged asthmatic respiratory crisis, according to a report from the Associated Press. The 88-year-old has been hospitalized for a week due to a complex lung infection, and the Vatican confirmed that he has also received blood transfusions after tests indicated a condition associated with anemia.

Reports that the Vatican has taken preparations for a Papal Conclave to select a new Pope, in the event that Pope Francis’ health condition continues to decline.

OBSERVATION - The Pope has almost been seen as the ‘religious’ leader of the globalist movement, consistently pushing the agenda using his authority as pope. His stepping down or death will generate a great deal of Vatican intrigue as to which cardinal will garner the support necessary to replace him and what level of global politics he will bring.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

Old saying here in the Redoubt - “It doesn’t have to snow twice for me to catch the drift”. Well in my case it seems twice was necessary to connect some of the dots.

Luigi Mangione, the assassin of the health care CEO, has been receiving rock star status by elements of the rabid left. Similar rabid leftist on Redditt channels have been of late using the Mario Bros “Luigi” as their symbol for resistance. Now, the link may have been made by others and it was just flushed past me because of the volume of other news, but it makes perfect sense now - linking the two.

***
The level of calls for violence by elements of the left against Trump and supporters on social media remains exceptionally high. What seems to be lacking is the development of a larger structure to organize any forces. For now, it seems to be focused on the ‘hope’ of a successful lone wolf type of event.

I think that behind the curtains, elements like Antifa and other communist groups are actually trying to put together an organized guerrilla effort. They have been working out the structure since the 2016 riots. Much remains to be seen though since now they have a much more hostile govt more than willing to go after them vs the biden regime and democrat controlled DC.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025

Antifa members and their co-conspirators are sharing a bomb making guide on social media and elsewhere. They’re encouraging their militants to carry out terrorist attacks in the U.S. and Europe.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1893437385561485734?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Admiral James W. Kilby, Vice Chief of Naval Operations (VCNO), has been appointed Acting Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), after the removal yesterday of Admiral Lisa M. Franchetti by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

Pfizer and Moderna’s protection from lawsuits continues to erode as more and more evidence of fraud and lying to the govt (though in many instances the govt knew about the lies and condoned them) are being brought to light.

POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.

The Justice Department filed charges of judicial misconduct against Biden-appointed District Judge Ana C. Reyes for overt hostility toward the government in Thursday’s hearing on President Trump’s Executive Order barring transgender applicants from joining the military. Attorney General Pam Bondi’s chief of staff accused Reyes of engaging in “hostile and egregious misconduct” during the hearing.

The letter alleges many incidents but focuses on two. In one, she demanded to know the religious views of the DOJ attorney, Jason Lynch. Then, this incredible exchange happened.

“What do you think Jesus would say,” Reyes proceeded to ask, about an action that revokes a transgender person’s access to homeless shelters?
“Do you think he’d say ‘sounds right to me’ or ‘WTF, let them in?’”

Lynch extracted himself by saying, “The US government is not going to speculate about what Jesus would have to say about anything.”

https://redstate.com/streiff/2025/02/21/doj-files-misconduct-complaint-against-hostile-and-biased-judge-overseeing-the-military-transgender-case-n2185868

OBSERVATION - These rogue judges are showing their true colors and in their so called ‘judgements’ setting themselves up for a fall. Reyes stepped way out side the bounds of her position and deserves to be slapped down like many of the other judges so far.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump rocked CPAC

Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Dec 18, 2024

The Israeli National Digital Agency has asked government organizations to prepare for the growing threat of quantum-computing cyberattacks. Such sophisticated attacks could potentially undermine Israel’s critical encrypted state and military data.

“The quantum threat is not a distant, futuristic scenario but an immediate reality requiring swift and comprehensive action,” the National Digital Agency’s directive stated.

While quantum computing is still in its infancy, Ofra Fraenkel, Israel’s chief government information officer at the National Digital Agency, assessed the unpredictable challenge of computing-connected security threats.

“It’s hard to pinpoint exactly when this will happen. When we faced the Y2K bug 25 years ago, we knew the exact date and time of the risk. Quantum computing is different – some experts predict breakthroughs within a year or two, while others believe we’re still 10 to 15 years away,” Fraenkel said.

https://allisrael.com/israels-national-digital-agency-warns-prepare-for-quantum-cyberattacks-on-critical-data

OBSERVATION - We’ve seen the massive explosion in the AI realm over the past couple years, growing at near exponential levels. Hiding in the back ground is quantum computing which already has show the capability to increase computing power and speed by multiple orders of magnitude over our most powerful systems current. The two will eventually merge and the potential for massive computer mayhem is there in front of our faces. Yes, it poses great potential for the advancement of humanity. But an even darker vision is the abuse to control and destroy humanity.

Illegal Immigration –

Kristi Noem, the DHS Secretary, has declared that deportation protections for Haitian migrants currently in the United States will be terminated.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the teens - 20 range, warming to the 30s by the end of next week. Mostly fair with some snow showers.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

267 drones launched by Russian forces on Ukraine last night—this is the highest number ever recorded during the full-scale invasion, says Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat. 138 shot down (also a record), and 119 more were suppressed by electronic warfare.
Additionally, a ballistic missile strike was reported in Sumy district and
1 person killed, 2 wounded as result of ballistic missile strike in Kryvyi Rih.

In just one week, Russia launched nearly 1,150 attack drones, over 1,400 guided bombs, and 35 missiles of various types against Ukraine.

Russian losses per 23/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1180 men
+7 tanks
+12 AFVs
+54 artillery systems
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
+91 service vehicles

Summary —

Tomorrow is the anniversary of the current war in Ukraine. The massive Shahed attack may well be a crescendo toward a much, much larger combined drone/missile attack tomorrow. Ukraine defenses appear to have done a remarkable job in downing 97% of this barrage. However, the consistently high numbers of Shaheds being fought every day could well be designed to wear the Ukrainian ADA down, setting them up for a possible massive strike later today/tomorrow in ‘celebration’ of the war’s start.

Ground war continues to grind, moderate levels of fighting along the front.

Geopolitical maneuvering towards some sort of cease fire and peace agreement continues to rumble between the US, Ukraine, Europe and Russia.

Europe / NATO General –

Germans are voting in parliamentary elections brought forward by the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ ruling coalition last November.
AfD is expected to make substantial gains, but not enough to secure control of the parliament.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israel withdrew the terrorists scheduled to be released in part do to Hamas’ handling of Israeli prisoners

- Massive memorial service for Nasrallah in Beirut.

- IDF deploys into Judea and Samaria ‘refugee’ camps

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israel will delay the seventh hostage-prisoner exchange in protest of Hamas’ “humiliating” treatment of hostages, according to Israeli officials.

Prime Minister’s Office :

“In light of Hamas’ repeated violations - including the ceremonies that demean the dignity of our hostages and the cynical use of the hostages for propaganda purposes - it was decided to delay the release of the terrorists planned for yesterday *until the release of the next hostages is guaranteed, and without the humiliating ceremonies.”

The terrorists had already boarded the buses, expecting to be freed, but just moments ago, they were removed and returned to their cells.
What was meant to be the biggest release of terrorists to date—over 600 individuals—has been put on hold by Israel.

The Prime Minister’s Office clarifies:
The terrorists will not be released until the dead hostages are handed over to Israel - whether on Thursday, as stipulated in the agreement, or before that.

RELATED - Hamas forced two hostages still in captivity to observe today’s (Saturday’s) release ceremony for Omer Shem Tov, Eliya Cohen, and Omer Wenkert. In a video released by the terror group, the two hostages are seen inside a vehicle at the staging area set up for the release of the three hostages.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Today is Hassan Nasrallah’s funeral in Beirut.

***
Israeli air force launches raid on Al-Ahmadiya area in Iqlim Al-Tuffah, southern Lebanon

Israeli raid targets the outskirts between the towns of Boudai and Flawi in the Bekaa

The IDF conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon, targeting a Hezbollah military site with rocket launchers and weapons, citing the group’s activity as a violation of Israel-Lebanon agreements. The IDF also hit additional Hezbollah rocket launchers posing a threat to Israeli civilians.

Defense Minister Israel Katz: “Israeli Air Force aircraft currently flying over Beirut, over the funeral of Hassan Nasrallah, convey a clear message: Those who threaten to destroy Israel and attack Israel, it will be their end.””You will specialize in funerals, and we will in victories,” he adds

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli army says it attacked weapons smuggling routes at Lebanon-Syria border

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Clashes between Palestinians and Israeli forces near the entrance to Silat al-Harithiya, west of Jenin

***
Defense Minister Israel Katz has ordered the IDF to remain in Judea and Samaria ‘refugee’ camps, now emptied of terror operatives and civilians, for the next year, barring anyone from returning.

“40,000 Palestinians have so far evacuated from the Jenin, Tulkarem, and Nur Shams refugee camps, and are now empty of residents. UNRWA activity in the camps has also been stopped,” Katz stated.

He explained that the IDF is dismantling “nests of terror,” eliminating terrorists and destroying infrastructure and weapons “on an extensive scale.”

“I instructed the IDF to prepare for a long stay in the camps that were cleared, for the coming year, and not allow residents to return and the terror to return and grow,” Katz declared.

“We will not return to the reality that was in the past. We will continue to clear refugee camps and other terror centers to dismantle the battalions and terror infrastructure of the extreme Islam that was built, armed, funded, and supported by the Iranian evil axis, in an attempt to establish an eastern terror front,” he added.

IDF tanks are operating in the Jenin area for the first time since Operation Defensive Shield in 2002.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Several days ago, the Houthis attempted to strike an American F-16 off Yemen’s coast but missed, U.S. officials say. U.S. officials told Al Arabiya that the Trump administration is exploring ways to respond to Houthi attacks.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Like seismic / magmatic stress building up to a volcanic eruption, so to the current ceasefire is moving towards an eventual blow up. Israel seems to be pushing to get as many hostages out as soon as possible. Once that happen, or the opportunity is slammed shut by Hamas, Israel seems prepared to lower the boom on Hamas, with the full support of Trump and the administration. Just as Hamas has likely taken the time to try to rearm and reorganize, Israel has done the same, restoring its bomb supplies and other munitions. Israel seems to be preparing to strike on a moment’s notice, and without biden’s restrictions, Hamas now has no place to hide.

Situation in Judea and Samaria will continue to be tense as IDF / security forces attempt to stomp out a growing terror threat from the region.

In Lebanon, Israel seems to be stepping up its air campaign against smuggling of supplies to Hezbollah, as well as hitting positions where they are trying to reestablish rocket firing positions.

Nasrallah’s funeral may server to stir up passions of Hezbollah, but may not achieve much more. It is a deflection of the significant defeat Hezbollah suffered at the hands of Israel and Syrian rebels.

Syria -

US Coalition drone strike targeted a vehicle on the road between Killi and Kaftin in northern Idlib countryside, Syria

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.