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The Slow Collapse of China’s Economy Has Begun
19FortyFive ^ | 12/17/2024 | Gordon G. Chang

Posted on 12/18/2024 7:23:49 AM PST by whyilovetexas111

China’s Producer Price Index, measuring factory-gate prices, fell in November year-on-year for the 26th straight month.

The gross domestic product deflator, a broader gauge of prices across the nation, has been in negative territory for six straight calendar quarters, the longest period this century.

The Consumer Price Index last month showed a 0.2% rise over the same period last year, well below the country’s 3% target.

China is gripped by deflation, an economy-killer. Lower prices are putting businesses out of business. And when people expect prices to drop, they hold off purchases, further aggravating the slowdown.

(Excerpt) Read more at 19fortyfive.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; History; Politics
KEYWORDS: asia; ccp; china; economics
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Is Chang right this time?
1 posted on 12/18/2024 7:23:49 AM PST by whyilovetexas111
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To: whyilovetexas111

2 posted on 12/18/2024 7:25:39 AM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: whyilovetexas111

This is the same kind of deep-state PR/media masturbation we see non-stop from Ukraine-Russia war

Chang has been spewing his “China collapse” fantasies for 30 years.

These people prefer fantasy to dealing with reality, about ourselves and our adversaries.


3 posted on 12/18/2024 7:31:41 AM PST by PGR88
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To: PGR88
Chang has been spewing his “China collapse” fantasies for 30 years.

It may happen tomorrow. Or 100 years from now.

4 posted on 12/18/2024 7:33:35 AM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: whyilovetexas111

The Communist Party has maintained control of the central bank and the allocation of capital. Much capital has been squandered. The demographics are also catostrophic.


5 posted on 12/18/2024 7:36:21 AM PST by allendale
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To: PGR88

China’s fundamentals has always been awful, which is why economists expected a collapse, but it has been saved by is massive expanding exports and trade surplus.

But that was always a temporary solution as your exports cannot expand forever, at some point you run out of foreign markets to expand to. Their economy was always a house of cards.

Trump accelerated their downfall by starting the trade war with them, which started their downward slide.

In 2021 China GDP had climbed to 75% of the US GDP, and there was talk of China eventually catching the US to become #1 in the world.

This year is has fallen to 62% and that talk has completely disappeared.


6 posted on 12/18/2024 7:41:12 AM PST by Truthsearcher
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To: allendale
The Communist Party has maintained control of the central bank and the allocation of capital. Much capital has been squandered. The demographics are also catostrophic.

Basically, it's 1989 in Soviet Union.

7 posted on 12/18/2024 7:42:38 AM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: whyilovetexas111

Oh look its Gordon Chang who has predicted nothing but doom and gloom for China for 30 years now.


8 posted on 12/18/2024 7:44:14 AM PST by FLT-bird
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To: whyilovetexas111

I’ve been reading this same BS ‘prediction’ for 2+ years... their economy is so big that it’ll just absorb any losses, right now.


9 posted on 12/18/2024 7:46:31 AM PST by Carriage Hill (A society grows great when old men plant trees, in whose shade they know they will never sit.)
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To: whyilovetexas111

It’s interesting to watch this GoogTube channel on how China is falling apart at the seams.
https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaObserver0/videos


10 posted on 12/18/2024 7:50:03 AM PST by Tom Tetroxide (Psalm 146:3 "Do not trust in princes, in the son of man, who has no salvation.")
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To: All

Who will buy our T-bills?


11 posted on 12/18/2024 7:51:46 AM PST by Reily (a)
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To: whyilovetexas111

China will need to start an external war to suppress the internal dissention.


12 posted on 12/18/2024 8:05:08 AM PST by tired&retired (Blessings )
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To: Reily

“Who will buy our T-bills?”

If you take a close look, M1 Monetary Supply has skyrocketed by the Federal Reserve at the same time they are purchasing our National Debt at auction to keep the interest rates down.

The Fed is sitting on a trillion dollar loss on the Treasury Bonds.

I expect that in the future they will collapse the dollar and offset the debt against the currency they created to purchase it.


13 posted on 12/18/2024 8:08:54 AM PST by tired&retired (Blessings )
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To: PGR88

I imagine China posts the same about the US. We give them credence with passage of bills like the Cramnibus.


14 posted on 12/18/2024 8:11:23 AM PST by dforest
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To: tired&retired

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FDHBFRBN


15 posted on 12/18/2024 8:14:29 AM PST by tired&retired (Blessings )
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To: tired&retired

Agree!


16 posted on 12/18/2024 8:14:44 AM PST by Reily (a)
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To: PGR88

Sorry to bust your narrative, but on this he’s right. On my last visit to Shanghai in September the number of closed businesses and lack of foot traffic in their malls was very noticeable. The number of people I know there that are unemployed has jumped.

I’m going back next week, and will see it again.


17 posted on 12/18/2024 8:27:39 AM PST by datura (Eventually, the Lord and the Truth will win.)
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To: whyilovetexas111

Deflation is especially problematic to debtors. China has rung up a LOT of debt.


18 posted on 12/18/2024 8:30:24 AM PST by glorgau
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To: Reily

China actual is only holding about 10% of our T-Bills...


19 posted on 12/18/2024 8:41:51 AM PST by POGO163
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To: Carriage Hill

Not if the debt keeps going up and most money goes to the military......


20 posted on 12/18/2024 8:43:24 AM PST by POGO163
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