Posted on 10/31/2024 6:32:23 AM PDT by Red Badger
We voted yesterday at one of the satellite locations that are now open in our county. 2 hour wait. It is one of 7 satellites plus the main county government office that’s had early voting for several weeks. While there, we heard the wait was 3 hours at one of the bigger places that’s 25 minutes away.
Early voting there has never taken us more than an hour before. I’m calling this heavier turnout than in previous presidential elections. I live in a pretty red area with maybe 20% blue.
The young lady behind us was voting for the first time. She’s in nursing school now. Very sweet girl. I could tell she was raised right. She was part of 4H from 3rd grade through high school. She was also an athlete and played soccer, softball, and now lacrosse. Definitely a conservative gal. She spoke glowingly of her parents and grandparents. That’s one young lady who hasn’t been swayed by Kamala. I hope there are more like her.
Polling misses are traditionally simple, pollsters don’t react the nontraditional voters.
When a candidate connects with these voters they are always under estimated in the polls.
Yes there can be biases and other things too,, but that’s thr biggest on when they are way way off.
Obama did this, and polls largely underreported his support and Trump has done this and the same thing has happened.
We voted on Sunday, and walked right in. Took all of 10 minutes.................
Indiana is very old school. Polls are not open on Sunday here. At least where I am.
BTTT
garbage in, garbage out is just one side of the equation
What the program does with that garbage is just as important.
If you can’t see the source code, and be able to rebuild it- you have nothing
Good questions-—I believe we all have held onto the hope that “maybe not all is lost”. However, if it’s blatant and obvious, I believe it becomes dire and someone will eventually “snap”. Our country is rare-—we are a bunch of rule followers and (still) a lot of Christians being patient but not passive.
However, you could be right. We might sit idly by while the takeover happens and never retaliate until they physically “come for us”. Either way-—it’s going to happen and I, personally, am waiting for them to make the “first move”.
The easy answer is....Conservatives never answer unknown phone calls.
We have other things to do then yack with fools.
I don’t actually recall Obama underpolling; I do recall thinking, “this campaign is incredible and unstoppable”. So I think perhaps I just didn’t pay any attention as it was obvious who was going to win. But your point is well taken.
Yes in 2012 Obama underpolled
“DO NOT BELEIVE YOUR OWN PROPAGANDA..................”
But they had fireworks....
HRC believed the skewed data... it’s a probable hypothesis.
Obama underpolled in likely voters models.
The registered voters polls were much closer to being accurate that year as I recall.
RCP average that year was Obama by 1, results were Obama by 3.9.
2012 miss wasn’t the worst miss, but Obama was underpolling in most polls, not a single solitary poll in October showed Obama up by more than 2, and many had Romney up. Basically the bulk of the polls were Obama up 1 or Romney Up 1. (All were likely voter polls).
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