Posted on 10/31/2024 6:32:23 AM PDT by Red Badger
There is a reasonable difference in the 2020 polls vs 2024 polls.
Pollster turnout models often rely heavily on Census data.
The Census for 2020 was 9-10 yrs old. For 2024 only 3 yrs old.
I am busy crunching numbers on this election.
Thinking beyond that will hurt my brain.
Lol.
The pollsters always have lots of excuses for getting it wrong.
The simplest explanation is the best one—they are clueless.
Gallup went away because the Obama administration threatened them with federal prosecutors, made up charges and corrupt courts. So Gallup bailed out on presidential polling. Obama wanted Democrat propaganda push polls to be the only source of information.
Its the same reason the Biden administration has been so hostile to election betting and various sites like Predictit, Polymarket, etc. They know full well that a gambling market is another source of information on where the electorate stands which the Democrat party cannot control.
I have a concern about these stats by party. How many registered republicans are actually “Operation Chaos” RAT voters who switched parties in order to vote their TDS in the primaries? I wouldn’t count too heavily on these early reports.
Wouldn’t bet on it - these kinds of wild stories always show up around a week out.
But counting ducks is very hard, they move around a lot. /s
LOL!
I was on restriction on Twitter-X last week for using that phrase:
“Stick a fork in her, she’s done!”
Until I deleted it!.............They said I violated their policy of inciting violence.................. 🙄
If I add 1% to Trump's polls and subtract 1% from Harris' poll numbers, Trump's result jumps to 302.62 ECV with a 84.8% probability of winning.
If the polling bias is 2%, Trump's result jumps to 318.03 ECV and the probability of winning jumps to 95.5%.
-PJ
“How many registered republicans are actually “Operation Chaos” RAT voters who switched parties in order to vote their TDS in the primaries?”
We actually can estimate that number.
Why? Because the Haley votes were identified by party registration.
Approximately one quarter of her votes were registered Democrats in states where anybody could vote in the Republican primary.
Take the Haley vote in a given primary—divide by four—and you have your secret Democrat number if it was a state that required Republican registration.
However—note that these days less than half of the states required Republican registration to vote in the Republican primary.
Then you have to note that less than half of Republicans who vote in a presidential election vote in their state’s primaries—and many states just have caucuses with no primary at all.
Net impact—less than 1% of Republican voters = less than one third of one percent of all voters.
Yes, they did!
Leftists have no sense of humor or common sense.............
Published polls are about manipulating public opinion.
Sane people don’t answer polls.
Sane people also don’t get worked up over the “results” of polls.
They aren’t nearly as bad as many Main Stream polls
Quinnipiac and Susquehanna for example.
Rasmussen forces its data into the demographic picture of the 2020 election. If the electorate if more republican than 2020, its results will be too far left.
Elections are based on turnout.
Polls are bad at predicting turnout—partially because it is very hard to do.
Nobody wants to tell a pollster “I am not voting” and if they say that the pollsters tend to push with “Well if you were voting....”
In 2016 HRC really believed the jacked up percentages favoring her were true.
She was cornfuzed.
1st rule of politics:
DO NOT BELEIVE YOUR OWN PROPAGANDA..................
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