Colorado Early Voting--Data and Analysis

University of Florida Election Lab ^ | October 30, 2024 | University of Fl Election Lab

[cgbg]

Both the Arizona and Nevada early voting numbers are amazingly strong:

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-arizona/

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-nevada/

We could be talking double digit Trump wins here using the Pew model—add six percentage points for Republicans to reflect election day voting.

[cgbg]

One reason I have high confidence in the Pew approach is that in most strong Democratic states (like CT, MD, NJ for example) they are showing very strong Democrat numbers above the Pew average as you would expect.

Colorado is the biggest outlier in any direction—by far.

[Owen]

3.16 million votes cast in Colorado 2020

Biden by 13%

Substantial increase in the ballots requested over the 2020 votes cast. Population gain, credible.

Still a week to go. Ballots returned or early voting in person have that long to accumulate.

Not really credible to presume a vote cast total less than 2020, regardless of Covid. The 4 yr population gain is pretty big.

[cgbg]

Fair point—we should watch these early vote totals day by day—but the Democrats have dug themselves a very deep hole here.

[cgbg]

In addition to watching the daily early vote numbers another indicator to watch is if either campaign suddenly starts spending significant new money in Colorado at the last minute.

If I were the Harris campaign I would be freaking out right now—they are seeing the same numbers I am.

[Bon of Babble]

I just returned yesterday from Colorado - we were all over the state. What I saw is a divided state, 1/2 Trump signs, 1/2 Harris signs, unlike in a recent trip to Pennsylvania where I saw nearly 100% Trump signs.

[dware]

So weird. Pulled a page up and went to lunch. Came back and still saying the same. No data. I even tried a different browser. I’d love to be able to check these each morning.

[cgbg]

I just checked a minute ago—they are showing the same numbers I posted.

I am using a beat up old Chromebook fwiw.

[Tellurian]

Colorado was one of a few states that sent mail in ballots to every registered voter in the state.

Yet there were 1,376,875 "requests" for (additional?) ballots? How does that work out, if every registered voter in the state has already had a ballot sent to them?

[cgbg]

The figure you cited was “returned” ballots.

Every registered voter “requested” one—whether they wanted to or not.

:-)

That is the 3.99 million number.

[politicket]

That could be a major blunder.

Yep - it won't be Republicans or Democrats deciding, it will be the Independents, which is the largest party in the state.

[cgbg]

There have been a lot of studies of “Independents” over the years and most analysts agree that they are really Democrats or Republicans pretending to be Independent.

In most states and races the true ticket-splitters are very rare. Most big number ticket-splitting happens in certain local races where someone is particularly popular or unpopular in the state or district.

That is why I think it is reasonable to project that Independents will divide up as the remainder of the voters divide up—and just reflect the prevailing consensus in a given state.

The notion of an “Independent” Independent is a myth imho.

[politicket]

It used to be that Independents in Colorado were more conservative leaning - but that was from a couple of decades ago.

I'm sure the data has changed now.

[cgbg]

Colorado updated tonight—no major changes—still on track for a Republican upset:

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-colorado/

There were a small number on in person ballots reported that favored Republicans—would not read too much into those small numbers though.

[Nervous Tick]

>> What I saw is a divided state, 1/2 Trump signs, 1/2 Harris signs

Californication of a conservative state ought to be a crime!

[cgbg]

Halloween update—no major percentage changes:

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-colorado/

[cgbg]

There has been a lot of discussion of polls—so look at the crazy big Harris lead in Colorado is shown by the polls:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/colorado/

Meanwhile the actual early vote totals by party show her up by two points (basically mail in votes) which is the Democrat strength.

The difference is huge—and crazy.

[cgbg]

Nov. 1 update:

Republicans are doing very well in new in person early voting numbers—obviously still small numbers but moved a needle in their favor:

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-colorado/

One poster here found a Nate Silver article about early voting that showed that Colorado had weird early voting numbers in 2020—apparently Republicans like early voting in this state—no clue why—and they lost big time in 2020 anyway.

But—I gotta call the data as I see it.

This still looks like a Republican win against all odds.

[cgbg]

Nov. 2 update:

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-colorado/

There are some more votes—same track.

Where have the Colorado Democrats gone? Are they in hiding?

Lol.

[cowboyusa]

How much is the Immigration issue playing a roll here?