Posted on 10/04/2024 8:53:19 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
What is going on with Quinnipiac?
Quinnipiac for those who don’t know is a polling group that shows up every election cycle, and their track record is, how shall I say this? For the last decade, Quinnipiac polling been insanely off the mark when it comes to their final polling vs the actual results.. and have always, always had Democrats grossly outperforming their real numbers in nearly every poll they have ever done… I don’t mean high but still inside the margin of error (MOE), I mean off at times multiples of their MOE and ALWAYS showing democrats over performing.
Now suddenly, in this cycle we have 2 polls in rapid succession that absolutely appear to break that Trend. A national poll out a week or two ago showing Trump up 1, and 2 state polls from them showing Trump up outside the Margin of Error in GA, and up 2 in NC. So I am curious what is going on with Quinnipiac.
. . .
Polls have been really weird this cycle. I don’t think Harris has the support she’s been lauded as having and I think she might end up like Dukakis.
Trying to lull Republicans into thinking it’s not necessary to show up to vote?
“Trying to lull Republicans into thinking it’s not necessary to show up to vote?”
It is ALWAYS necessary to vote.
This group is a a Poll Pusher. Not a Poltster.
The only polls I trust is Rasmussen polls
No chance in hell of that happening. At best, more like Hillary in 2016 (304-227 EVs for Trump; 7 EVs to "others" as a protest).
They can hone their communications skills talking to live strangers on the phone. This prepares them for future employment with "community organizing" and other advocacy organizations, including departments of the federal government.
It wouldn't surprise me at all to find that the funding for the Quinnipiac polls comes from the federal government, under some sort of student work-study program, such as FAFSA.
Oh. Huh. About two minutes searching on Google turns up information on the Quinnipiac College website, listing Student Employment: Quinnipiac University Poll REMOTE Telephone Interviewer – 24/25 as a FAFSA (federally funded work-study) job opening for Quinnipiac undergrads.
while it’s not exactly the same thing, I was Galloped the other day about who I’d vote for. What was funny to me was that it was a graded scale. -5 at being the worst, 0 being neither and +5 as the most, with all the negatives and positive numbers in between. It was for both Trump and Vance and for the 2 stooges. Never seen that before.
Nah this is something else, and its only been the last few polls...
If you look at their PA poll a few week it was almost ludicrous, claiming Harris had a 6 point advantage in PA, which requires one to be highly inebriated to be believed. Not only that, but the PA a few weeks back actually under-sampled both Republicans and Democrats by pretty significant amounts
33 R
36 D
25 I
6 other.
While the real breakdown of the state by party is:
39 R
46 D
15 I/Other
So they grossly oversampled independents, undersampled both R’s and D’s fairly significantly... and still claimed Harris had a 6 point lead, which is just insane. That kind of numer is like Obama re-election numbers in PA. Harris is not going to pull anywhere near that even on her best day.
So whatever has happened with these last few polls, is certainly new, even this cycle. Will see what their next polls say, to see if this is a trend or just a couple of outsider polls for them.
I personally expect Trump to win comfortably, and I do expect him to expand the map by election day.. but I don’t expect it to be as bad as 1988 for the Dems, state breakdowns today would require a republican to win the national vote by double digits to wind up with the same kind of EC breakdown Bush I got in 1988.
However, I do expect Trump to win the popular vote, which would be the first time, other than W’s re-election a Republican will have done so.
I could see the vote percentages being in the ballpark of 1988, if Harris fully collapses, then she could wind up around 45%, and Trump could push his percentages maybe to the 53% margin, but I think that’s a likely big lift to get Trump up to 53, just because of how things are today.
We shall see. Gut is more 50/51 to 47/48. However even if its just 50%+1 vote for Trump, he will have won the national popular vote, and that’s a pill the Dem activist are going to choke on big time.
A lot of people don’t answer the phones if they have caller ID.
Quinnipiac is Deep State.
Nuff said.
nope the dnc will do whatever it takes to get more votes for harris after the election. kind of like what they did for cankles in 2016
Rasmussen polls are still pretty good. Gold Crown Politics is very interesting, with predictions that aren’t based on polling, but on voting patterns over time. Worth checking out.
The voting for this election is set anyway. Anyone claiming to be undecided is just keeping quiet but knows who they are voting for.
33 R
36 D
25 I
6 other.
While the real breakdown of the state by party is:
39 R
46 D
15 I/Other
The 2020 election vote was: l
41 R
40 D
19 I
As are pretty much all public polls—and especially those associated with colleges, such as this one, or the MSM.
This one is especially shameless, but there are others in its league.
I always figured that’s why Hillary!TM lost. Everyone was told she was going to smash Trump by double digits so lots of folks got together to party but didn’t bother to vote. That, or the Deep State didn’t want her, either, and let her know the People would decide.
College polls are about as accurate as a poll of college students would be. They always seem off, and always in one direction.
I guess every once in a while, the professors aren’t watching and an outlier gets published.
There’s some small ones not too shabby
Even Gallup gets it right on occasion
Generally speaking if Trump is 2 points behind or even he’s up
But the GOPe is now more even with Dems voter wise so that may not be true anymore
This only matters in
PA
AZ
NV
WI
GA
MI
maybe NC and VA
and turnout by rural righties to thwart big city black and white lefty vote is the key
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