The polls are all over the place.
This chart combines all of them—kinda mashing together rotten apples and smashed oranges—but whatever:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
The Democratic insiders are in a panic about something—so they must be seeing some numbers we are not seeing.
The numbers play like this.
2020 popular vote difference 7M votes, 5M in Calif and 2M in NY.
In no state did Trump have a 1M edge. The concentration of Biden support is extreme.
That’s why popular vote losses of late did not deny the GOP guy the presidency, because small wins in battlegrounds offset the extreme left concentration states.
A Biden lead of 1 or 2% loses for Biden because it’s coming from Calif and NY. That 7M 2020 lead was a 4.5% edge and that translated into just a few tens of thousands of votes spread across several battlegrounds.
If 4.5% is going to be only 1 or 2% this time, he can’t win the battlegrounds. Most of the 1 or 2% will be Calif and NY.
This is the source of panic.